duncan228
11-01-2009, 04:07 PM
With Salary Cap Expected To Drop, Here's The Cash Call (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/dailydime?page=dime-091030-31)
By Marc Stein
ESPN.com
You've heard tons about the infamous memo dispatched by the league office in July warning teams that the salary cap for the 2010-11 season could drop from the current $57.7 million all the way down to somewhere between $50.4 million and $53.6 million.
What hasn't been widely publicized is that more teams than not, at this early stage, expect next season's cap to wind up closer to the higher figure.
The NBA's public position on the matter has not changed. Commissioner David Stern re-iterated again last week in briefings with reporters leading into opening night that his number-crunchers continue to forecast overall league revenue in 2009-10 to decline from 2.5 to 5 percent.
Yet as one Eastern Conference executive told ESPN.com this week: "We are projecting a number somewhere in the 52-to-53 million range. We had been working off the doomsday 50.4 [million] number, but now … we think 53.6 [million] could be very realistic."
There are several other teams that believe the same after the recent NBA Board of Governors meetings in New York. Sources say teams were advised that the leaguewide revenue hit -- while still significant if the cap figure will be decreasing by a record $4 million from this season's cap -- might not be as bad as first feared. Which would obviously be a welcome development for those of you still banking on something resembling a free-agent bonanza in July.
Our own extensive consultation with one veteran team capologist returned a list of seven teams that should have at least $10 million in spending money next summer, provided that the revenue dip is indeed closer to 2.5 percent and the $53.6 million cap that would go with it.
A disclaimer is required to make it clear that the math involved in such projections can vary from team to team, especially this many months in advance. Another East exec we spoke to is holding firm in his belief that the 2010-11 salary cap will be closer to the dreaded $50 million range, no matter how many of his colleagues believe otherwise, with a fellow pessimist from West predicting a cap fall to $51-52 million.
"When in doubt," said the East resident, "go bleak."
So …
Acknowledging all of those perspectives here, let's take an immediate look at the seven teams on course to have the most money next summer, based on a cap at $53.6 million and at $50 million and factoring in expected financial obligations to draft picks and the cap holds teams must add to their books during the offseason when they have fewer than 12 players under contract. We caution that these are merely the best available estimates as of Halloween, but we proceed in the season's maiden Weekend Dime because payroll positioning for July 1, 2010 -- as you also might have heard -- is going to be a non-stop story for the next eight months.
As Miami's Dwyane Wade said Wednesday night when surrounded by reporters who cover the Knicks: "I think the whole world is aware of that."
1. NEW JERSEY
$53.6 million salary cap: $24.9 million in cap space
$50 million salary cap: $21.3 million in cap space
What it means: With his estimated net worth of $9.5 billion and more room than anyone else no matter where the cap winds up, Russia's Mikhail Prokhorov is all set to make a huge splash in his first summer as an NBA owner … barring his unlikely failure to be approved by the league. Throw in the two quality building blocks (Devin Harris and Brook Lopez) New Jersey already has, Jay-Z's presence as a minority owner and the increasing likelihood that the Nets' move to Brooklyn will actually (finally) happen in a couple of years and you can understand why the Nets have been restored to the short list of teams that have Cleveland legitimately freaked about the possibility of stealing away LeBron James.
2. NEW YORK
$53.6 million salary cap: $23.4 million in cap space
$50 million salary cap: $19.8 million in cap space
What it means: It's worldwide common knowledge, as D-Wade noted, that the Knicks' original free-agent fantasy was signing LeBron along with another max player (such as Wade or Chris Bosh) in the summer of 2010 to start over under coach Mike D'Antoni, who is beloved by James, Wade and several other members of Team USA from their time with the national team. But with first-year salaries for the big names expected to be in the $16 million range, New York can only afford one max player … unless it can (gulp) move Eddy Curry for an expiring contract during the season. This, furthermore, is a best-case scenario for the Knicks that assumes unrestricted free agents-to-be David Lee and Nate Robinson are no longer on the payroll.
3. MIAMI
$53.6 million salary cap: $18.5 million of cap space
$50 million salary cap: $14.9 million of cap space
What it means: These numbers should leave little doubt why Pat Riley was so adamant about taking the Heat completely out of the transaction game last summer. Even if the cap goes down to $50 million, Miami will have enough room to compete for Bosh -- or another marquee player that isn't so similar to Michael Beasley -- and re-sign Wade. Which means that, yes, even the team one rung below the Knicks in the Cap Space Club would appear to be better off than the Knicks … unless Donnie Walsh can find a way to move out Curry (and/or Jared Jeffries) before the February trading deadline. We repeat: gulp.
4. CHICAGO
$53.6 million salary cap: $12.9 million of cap space
$50 million salary cap: $9.3 million of cap space
What it means: Sources with knowledge of the Bulls' thinking say Chicago wants to get a decent look at this group before deciding how to attack July 2010. There's also the perennial possibility that Kirk Hinrich gets moved, which could wind up creating more cap space than the Bulls currently envision depending on what they would have to take back in a trade involving Hinrich. Yet this much we know for sure: Chicago naturally believes it's set at the point with Derrick Rose and has one trusty big man for the future in Joakim Noah. Any eight-figure amount of cap room is going to help them keep adding quality to the core, although that is another best-case scenario that assumes restricted free agent Tyrus Thomas will have been traded elsewhere.
5. MINNESOTA
$53.6 million salary cap: $12.5 million of cap space
$50 million salary cap: $8.9 million of cap space
What it means: Wolves fans aren't going to exhale until they know that Ricky Rubio's signature is on a signed NBA contract, which isn't expected before the 2011-12 season at the earliest. Wolves fans would also be rightly skeptical of anyone who dared to suggest that their starting-over franchise will be a free-agent player in 2010. But cap room, remember, can be used in trades, too. The combination of the cap space for deals, Minnesota's emerging frontcourt tandem of Al Jefferson and Kevin Love and the knowledge that Rubio, Jonny Flynn and Ramon Sessions all rank as attractive trade assets adds up to some legit post-KG hope. The Wolves could also be moving up the cap-space charts if, as expected, they decline their option on Oleksiy Pecherov and depending on what happens with Thomas in Chicago and Minnesota's multiple first-round picks in June.
6. OKLAHOMA CITY
$53.6 million salary cap: $11.8 million of cap space
$50 million salary cap: $8.2 million of cap space
What it means: Still wondering why we're always saying that the Thunder, for all the cracks about unfashionable Oklahoma City, are the envy of countless teams? On top of the wildly promising four-man core of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Jeff Green and James Harden and the good crowds, OKC is poised to make its first significant foray into free agency. The Thunder still have to convince skeptics they can lure a big-name signing to their humble outpost and prove they're willing to pull the trigger on big spending -- it wouldn't surprise anyone if they merely seek a quality piece or two and save some of the money to pay all the kids -- but sunglasses are definitely required with an outlook this bright.
7. L.A. CLIPPERS
$53.6 million salary cap: $11.1 million of cap space
$50 million salary cap: $7.5 million of cap space
What it means: I've been led to believe the Clippers have some ideas about creating a bit more room than they are on course to have on Halloween. That would almost certainly require parting with either Al Thornton or Sebastian Telfair … unless they have an unexpected deal in the works to move Baron Davis. Yet even if the Clips stay where they are cap-wise, they'll have a healthy amount of cash to keep building around the foursome with long-term contracts: Blake Griffin, Eric Gordon, Chris Kaman and BD.
By Marc Stein
ESPN.com
You've heard tons about the infamous memo dispatched by the league office in July warning teams that the salary cap for the 2010-11 season could drop from the current $57.7 million all the way down to somewhere between $50.4 million and $53.6 million.
What hasn't been widely publicized is that more teams than not, at this early stage, expect next season's cap to wind up closer to the higher figure.
The NBA's public position on the matter has not changed. Commissioner David Stern re-iterated again last week in briefings with reporters leading into opening night that his number-crunchers continue to forecast overall league revenue in 2009-10 to decline from 2.5 to 5 percent.
Yet as one Eastern Conference executive told ESPN.com this week: "We are projecting a number somewhere in the 52-to-53 million range. We had been working off the doomsday 50.4 [million] number, but now … we think 53.6 [million] could be very realistic."
There are several other teams that believe the same after the recent NBA Board of Governors meetings in New York. Sources say teams were advised that the leaguewide revenue hit -- while still significant if the cap figure will be decreasing by a record $4 million from this season's cap -- might not be as bad as first feared. Which would obviously be a welcome development for those of you still banking on something resembling a free-agent bonanza in July.
Our own extensive consultation with one veteran team capologist returned a list of seven teams that should have at least $10 million in spending money next summer, provided that the revenue dip is indeed closer to 2.5 percent and the $53.6 million cap that would go with it.
A disclaimer is required to make it clear that the math involved in such projections can vary from team to team, especially this many months in advance. Another East exec we spoke to is holding firm in his belief that the 2010-11 salary cap will be closer to the dreaded $50 million range, no matter how many of his colleagues believe otherwise, with a fellow pessimist from West predicting a cap fall to $51-52 million.
"When in doubt," said the East resident, "go bleak."
So …
Acknowledging all of those perspectives here, let's take an immediate look at the seven teams on course to have the most money next summer, based on a cap at $53.6 million and at $50 million and factoring in expected financial obligations to draft picks and the cap holds teams must add to their books during the offseason when they have fewer than 12 players under contract. We caution that these are merely the best available estimates as of Halloween, but we proceed in the season's maiden Weekend Dime because payroll positioning for July 1, 2010 -- as you also might have heard -- is going to be a non-stop story for the next eight months.
As Miami's Dwyane Wade said Wednesday night when surrounded by reporters who cover the Knicks: "I think the whole world is aware of that."
1. NEW JERSEY
$53.6 million salary cap: $24.9 million in cap space
$50 million salary cap: $21.3 million in cap space
What it means: With his estimated net worth of $9.5 billion and more room than anyone else no matter where the cap winds up, Russia's Mikhail Prokhorov is all set to make a huge splash in his first summer as an NBA owner … barring his unlikely failure to be approved by the league. Throw in the two quality building blocks (Devin Harris and Brook Lopez) New Jersey already has, Jay-Z's presence as a minority owner and the increasing likelihood that the Nets' move to Brooklyn will actually (finally) happen in a couple of years and you can understand why the Nets have been restored to the short list of teams that have Cleveland legitimately freaked about the possibility of stealing away LeBron James.
2. NEW YORK
$53.6 million salary cap: $23.4 million in cap space
$50 million salary cap: $19.8 million in cap space
What it means: It's worldwide common knowledge, as D-Wade noted, that the Knicks' original free-agent fantasy was signing LeBron along with another max player (such as Wade or Chris Bosh) in the summer of 2010 to start over under coach Mike D'Antoni, who is beloved by James, Wade and several other members of Team USA from their time with the national team. But with first-year salaries for the big names expected to be in the $16 million range, New York can only afford one max player … unless it can (gulp) move Eddy Curry for an expiring contract during the season. This, furthermore, is a best-case scenario for the Knicks that assumes unrestricted free agents-to-be David Lee and Nate Robinson are no longer on the payroll.
3. MIAMI
$53.6 million salary cap: $18.5 million of cap space
$50 million salary cap: $14.9 million of cap space
What it means: These numbers should leave little doubt why Pat Riley was so adamant about taking the Heat completely out of the transaction game last summer. Even if the cap goes down to $50 million, Miami will have enough room to compete for Bosh -- or another marquee player that isn't so similar to Michael Beasley -- and re-sign Wade. Which means that, yes, even the team one rung below the Knicks in the Cap Space Club would appear to be better off than the Knicks … unless Donnie Walsh can find a way to move out Curry (and/or Jared Jeffries) before the February trading deadline. We repeat: gulp.
4. CHICAGO
$53.6 million salary cap: $12.9 million of cap space
$50 million salary cap: $9.3 million of cap space
What it means: Sources with knowledge of the Bulls' thinking say Chicago wants to get a decent look at this group before deciding how to attack July 2010. There's also the perennial possibility that Kirk Hinrich gets moved, which could wind up creating more cap space than the Bulls currently envision depending on what they would have to take back in a trade involving Hinrich. Yet this much we know for sure: Chicago naturally believes it's set at the point with Derrick Rose and has one trusty big man for the future in Joakim Noah. Any eight-figure amount of cap room is going to help them keep adding quality to the core, although that is another best-case scenario that assumes restricted free agent Tyrus Thomas will have been traded elsewhere.
5. MINNESOTA
$53.6 million salary cap: $12.5 million of cap space
$50 million salary cap: $8.9 million of cap space
What it means: Wolves fans aren't going to exhale until they know that Ricky Rubio's signature is on a signed NBA contract, which isn't expected before the 2011-12 season at the earliest. Wolves fans would also be rightly skeptical of anyone who dared to suggest that their starting-over franchise will be a free-agent player in 2010. But cap room, remember, can be used in trades, too. The combination of the cap space for deals, Minnesota's emerging frontcourt tandem of Al Jefferson and Kevin Love and the knowledge that Rubio, Jonny Flynn and Ramon Sessions all rank as attractive trade assets adds up to some legit post-KG hope. The Wolves could also be moving up the cap-space charts if, as expected, they decline their option on Oleksiy Pecherov and depending on what happens with Thomas in Chicago and Minnesota's multiple first-round picks in June.
6. OKLAHOMA CITY
$53.6 million salary cap: $11.8 million of cap space
$50 million salary cap: $8.2 million of cap space
What it means: Still wondering why we're always saying that the Thunder, for all the cracks about unfashionable Oklahoma City, are the envy of countless teams? On top of the wildly promising four-man core of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Jeff Green and James Harden and the good crowds, OKC is poised to make its first significant foray into free agency. The Thunder still have to convince skeptics they can lure a big-name signing to their humble outpost and prove they're willing to pull the trigger on big spending -- it wouldn't surprise anyone if they merely seek a quality piece or two and save some of the money to pay all the kids -- but sunglasses are definitely required with an outlook this bright.
7. L.A. CLIPPERS
$53.6 million salary cap: $11.1 million of cap space
$50 million salary cap: $7.5 million of cap space
What it means: I've been led to believe the Clippers have some ideas about creating a bit more room than they are on course to have on Halloween. That would almost certainly require parting with either Al Thornton or Sebastian Telfair … unless they have an unexpected deal in the works to move Baron Davis. Yet even if the Clips stay where they are cap-wise, they'll have a healthy amount of cash to keep building around the foursome with long-term contracts: Blake Griffin, Eric Gordon, Chris Kaman and BD.