Spurs Offense Lives and Dies by the 3Ball

[Dunc n Dave]

Looking over the box scores for the first 8 games, it is fairly obvious that the Spurs success on offense is predicated by them shooting 40% or better from downtown. That is a recipe for disaster in the playoffs vs teams who will gameplan for that and/or choose not to double Tim (letting him "get his")and stay at home on the shooters.

vs OKC 3-18 3's for 17% LOSS
vs DAL 14-34 3's for 41% WIN
vs TOR 14-28 3's for 50% WIN
@ PORT 4-21 3's for 19% LOSS
@ UTAH 6-16 3's for 38% LOSS
vs SAC 8-16 3's for 50% WIN
@ CHI 4-21 3's for 19% LOSS
vs NO 9-24 3's for 37% WIN

Every game the Spurs have shot 40% or better from 3, they have won. Evry game they shot under 40% from 3, they lost. The only exception to that rule was the home opener vs New Orleans where they only made 9-24 3's, but if you look at the box score you realize another stat that jumps out at you: that game and the Sacramento game were the only games the Spurs shot better than 50% from the field overall. They made 52% of all their shots vs NO and 58% vs Sacramento (hence the blowout win vs the Kings). The Spurs had a lot of pts in the paint in those 2 games. That allowed them to win easily vs NO and Sac.

THE POINT: When the Spurs are hitting their 3's they are an elite team offensively. Teams start closing out quicker, which opens up the drive, allowing guys other than Tony and Tim to get points in the paint. But when they are not hitting from outside, no one closes out on the shooters, playing them to stop the drive instead, and daring them to shoot. See the Portland, Chicago, and OKC games where they shot under 20% from 3.

In the past, living and dieing by the 3 was to be expected from a Spurs team full of aging veteran jump shooters who couldn't get to the rim. But THIS TEAM HAS the ability to penetrate with guys like RJ and George Hill now playing big roles. I'd like to see more motion offense used to free up these guys for mid range shots and/or drives to the paint on the nights when we come out flat from downtown in the 1st quarter. The Spurs can't just keep living and dieing with the 3ball, especially in the playoffs, where having an "off night" at the wrong time could cause you to lose the series and end your season.

[ginobili fan]

That's what I am saying: change the game!!
we are not supposed to play like lottery teams

[spursfan1000]

Wow we are baising out game on that and we can't even make it!!

[itzsoweezee]

Spurs need to either get to the free throw line or make their threes. They're not winning anything if they don't do at least one of those two things (preferably both) well.

2010 - ?:
- 34.8% from 3 (16th in league)
- 23rd in FT attempts


2007 - NBA champions:
- 38% from 3 (3rd in league)
- 24th in FT attempts


2005 - NBA champions:
- 36% from 3 (9th in league)
- 16th in FT attempts


2003 - NBA champions:
- 35% from 3 (11th in league)
- 6th in league in FT attempts

[YODA]

dam people......give it time. They will find a way.

[exstatic]

Looking over the box scores for the first 8 games, it is fairly obvious that the Spurs success on offense is predicated by them shooting 40% or better from downtown. That is a recipe for disaster in the playoffs vs teams who will gameplan for that and/or choose not to double Tim (letting him "get his")and stay at home on the shooters.

vs OKC 3-18 3's for 17% LOSS
vs DAL 14-34 3's for 41% WIN
vs TOR 14-28 3's for 50% WIN
@ PORT 4-21 3's for 19% LOSS
@ UTAH 6-16 3's for 38% LOSS
vs SAC 8-16 3's for 50% WIN
@ CHI 4-21 3's for 19% LOSS
vs NO 9-24 3's for 37% WIN

Every game the Spurs have shot 40% or better from 3, they have won. Evry game they shot under 40% from 3, they lost. The only exception to that rule was the home opener vs New Orleans where they only made 9-24 3's, but if you look at the box score you realize another stat that jumps out at you: that game and the Sacramento game were the only games the Spurs shot better than 50% from the field overall. They made 52% of all their shots vs NO and 58% vs Sacramento (hence the blowout win vs the Kings). The Spurs had a lot of pts in the paint in those 2 games. That allowed them to win easily vs NO and Sac.

THE POINT: When the Spurs are hitting their 3's they are an elite team offensively. Teams start closing out quicker, which opens up the drive, allowing guys other than Tony and Tim to get points in the paint. But when they are not hitting from outside, no one closes out on the shooters, playing them to stop the drive instead, and daring them to shoot. See the Portland, Chicago, and OKC games where they shot under 20% from 3.

In the past, living and dieing by the 3 was to be expected from a Spurs team full of aging veteran jump shooters who couldn't get to the rim. But THIS TEAM HAS the ability to penetrate with guys like RJ and George Hill now playing big roles. I'd like to see more motion offense used to free up these guys for mid range shots and/or drives to the paint on the nights when we come out flat from downtown in the 1st quarter. The Spurs can't just keep living and dieing with the 3ball, especially in the playoffs, where having an "off night" at the wrong time could cause you to lose the series and end your season.

Wow. It only took you 5 seasons to figure this out? :lol

All you had to do was look at the trades and FA signings. The ones who stuck were 3 point shooters. The ones that didn't? Not so much. Very few exceptions.

[DPG21920]

I feel like I am in the movie Groundhog Day. Spurs hit a bunch of 3's and win, everyone cheers.

Spurs shoot poorly from 3 and lose, a new thread appears with dynamite analysis saying the Spurs live and die from the 3.

[Interrohater]

I feel like I am in the movie Groundhog Day. Spurs hit a bunch of 3's and win, everyone cheers.

Spurs shoot poorly from 3 and lose, a new thread appears with dynamite analysis saying the Spurs live and die from the 3.

exactly. it's what we've always done, I don't understand how it's a surprise. It works, it's a good system, it just needs time.

[SenorSpur]

Looking over the box scores for the first 8 games, it is fairly obvious that the Spurs success on offense is predicated by them shooting 40% or better from downtown. That is a recipe for disaster in the playoffs vs teams who will gameplan for that and/or choose not to double Tim (letting him "get his")and stay at home on the shooters.

vs OKC 3-18 3's for 17% LOSS
vs DAL 14-34 3's for 41% WIN
vs TOR 14-28 3's for 50% WIN
@ PORT 4-21 3's for 19% LOSS
@ UTAH 6-16 3's for 38% LOSS
vs SAC 8-16 3's for 50% WIN
@ CHI 4-21 3's for 19% LOSS
vs NO 9-24 3's for 37% WIN

Every game the Spurs have shot 40% or better from 3, they have won. Evry game they shot under 40% from 3, they lost. The only exception to that rule was the home opener vs New Orleans where they only made 9-24 3's, but if you look at the box score you realize another stat that jumps out at you: that game and the Sacramento game were the only games the Spurs shot better than 50% from the field overall. They made 52% of all their shots vs NO and 58% vs Sacramento (hence the blowout win vs the Kings). The Spurs had a lot of pts in the paint in those 2 games. That allowed them to win easily vs NO and Sac.

THE POINT: When the Spurs are hitting their 3's they are an elite team offensively. Teams start closing out quicker, which opens up the drive, allowing guys other than Tony and Tim to get points in the paint. But when they are not hitting from outside, no one closes out on the shooters, playing them to stop the drive instead, and daring them to shoot. See the Portland, Chicago, and OKC games where they shot under 20% from 3.

In the past, living and dieing by the 3 was to be expected from a Spurs team full of aging veteran jump shooters who couldn't get to the rim. But THIS TEAM HAS the ability to penetrate with guys like RJ and George Hill now playing big roles. I'd like to see more motion offense used to free up these guys for mid range shots and/or drives to the paint on the nights when we come out flat from downtown in the 1st quarter. The Spurs can't just keep living and dieing with the 3ball, especially in the playoffs, where having an "off night" at the wrong time could cause you to lose the series and end your season.

Excellent point and factual details. Even in the win versus the Mavs, I remember thinking to myself 30+ 3-pt shots? Are you kidding me?

It seems that only when TD is in the game, do these players ever think about throwing the ball into the post. Blair rarely if ever got the ball on the block.

This over-reliance on 3-pt shooting was problematic last year. Now, as you say, the team has a couple more penetrators, they should use that more to setup the outside shots.

For the record, it's not just the Spurs. The NBA overall has evolved to a point where the midrange game is practically non-existent.

[TIMMYD!]

What happened to RJ last night?

[SenorSpur]

What happened to RJ last night?

He got the MJ freeze-out treatment. :lol

I'm kidding, but after two games where established himself as an offensive weapon for the Spurs, he only took a whopping 4 shots.

[ElNono]

Once upon a time, we used to play a lot better defensively.
Games were ugly as shit, but we would still pull them off even if we shot under 40% from the floor overall, not just 3 pointers.
Obviously Duncan and Bowen had a lot to do with that, but overall, I think we've slowly moved away from that philosophy too, and we've embraced 3 ball and small ball.

[Austin_Toros]

Once upon a time, we used to play a lot better defensively.
Games were ugly as shit, but we would still pull them off even if we shot under 40% from the floor overall, not just 3 pointers.
Obviously Duncan and Bowen had a lot to do with that, but overall, I think we've slowly moved away from that philosophy too, and we've embraced 3 ball and small ball.

yeah we used to play better D.
i wonder if the spurs should change their philosophy though. think about it: duncan is getting older and he's not the focal point where we can just surround him with three point shooters. im not saying a change should be immediate, but the spurs may eventually change their style (maybe when pop goes?)

[Dunc n Dave]

Wow. It only took you 5 seasons to figure this out? :lol

All you had to do was look at the trades and FA signings. The ones who stuck were 3 point shooters. The ones that didn't? Not so much. Very few exceptions.

Perhaps, you didn't read the last paragraph, where I said in the past, that method was OK because outside of Manu & Tony we had no one who could legitimately get to the rim?

But this year with Hill and Jefferson playing big roles there is no need to rely on the 3ball like year's past. It's not about "figureing something out for 5 years," but figuring out this year's team is capable of more than just Pop's annual offensive "status quo." We make guys like Hill and RJ into spot up jump shooters? We have guys like Bonner, FInley, Bogans, and Mason that can perform that task.

And by the way, Jacque Vaughn was never a good 3pt shooter, yet still stuck around past his initial FA contract.

[EmptyMan]

Not only are they a Jump Shooting Team, they can't guard the paint.

Double whammy.

[Dunc n Dave]

exactly. it's what we've always done, I don't understand how it's a surprise. It works, it's a good system, it just needs time.

Being a Top 5 defensive team is what we've always done too, but we won't be there this year because the personnel has changed. It's not about "doing what we've always done." It's about your team's strategies evolving to fit the strengths of your team. This year's team has 4 perimeter players that can get to the rim at will in Tony, Manu, RJ, and Hill. We haven't had close to that many slashers on a team since 2003. As someone else stated, we were Top 10 in FT attempts that year because we used an offense designed to take advantage of guys slashing abilities.

With a stellar defense, you could afford to have off nights from the 3pt line, but with an average defense an off night will get you beat in the playoffs.

Look at Phil Jackson's strategy to beat the Spurs in the playoffs recently: change up double teams on Duncan and for everyone else-pack the lane and dare them to shoot the 3. Spurs usually play well in LA, but not well enough to win since they are hard to beat at Staples. Spurs then come home, win a game in blowout fashion with lights out 3 pt shooting, then struggle through 1 or more nights of horrid 3pt shooting at home and lose the series to the Lakers. PHil knows if the Spurs live by the 3, they will die by the 3 too. Off nights will be their demise.

With 4 slashers, that doesn't need to be the case. Let the offense evolve to fit the strengths of your key players. That's all I'm saying... This isn't a dooms days thread. Even when the Spurs win by hitting "lights out" from the 3, I'm not proclaiming us invincible, because any knowledgeable fan knows that with every 50% night from 3 comes 1 or 2 30% or less nights from 3.

[HarlemHeat37]

We've always done this..the Celtics did this when they won the title, the Cavs do this, the Magic do this..they've all had the same successful formula for years..

the difference simply comes down to defense..our shot selection is fine, we just aren't playing good enough defense..

those other teams played great defense and got results with shooting a lot of 3s..our old Spurs teams got results doing the same thing..it all comes down to getting back in form defensively..

[MaNu4Tres]

We've always done this..the Celtics did this when they won the title, the Cavs do this, the Magic do this..they've all had the same successful formula for years..

the difference simply comes down to defense..our shot selection is fine, we just aren't playing good enough defense..

those other teams played great defense and got results with shooting a lot of 3s..our old Spurs teams got results doing the same thing..it all comes down to getting back in form defensively..

Having Duncan treading water and having his minutes limited during the regular season won't help this situation.

[HarlemHeat37]

Well eventually it might come down to having to change the style, since I don't believe we can be a top 5 defense with our current rotation, especially with Mason/Finley/Bonner playing significant minutes at the same time..

[SenorSpur]

Well eventually it might come down to having to change the style, since I don't believe we can be a top 5 defense with our current rotation, especially with Mason/Finley/Bonner playing significant minutes at the same time..

:tu

It certainly didn't work last year either, when Pop was forced to play those guys heavy minutes. I don't see how the end result would be any different this year.

[senorglory]

I don't think three point shooting percentage by itself tells the tale.

1) Two examples off the top of my head of successful high percentage three point shooting teams:
a) '94-95 Champion Rockets, who shot 39.5% (7.9/20) in wins, and 33.9% in losses (7.9/23.3) (http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/HOU/1995/splits/).

or as mentioned above,
b) '07-08 Champion Celtics, shooting 39.2% @ in wins, and 34.2% in losses (http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2008/splits/).

2) Also, consider: 2009 Spurs shooting 44.3% (11.3/25.5) in wins, and 22.7% (4.3/19.0) in losses (http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/2010/splits/). By themselves, these numbers could just as easily be used to make the argument Spurs need to shoot more threes... the Spurs average more three point attempts in games they've won than in games lost, 25.5 to 19.0.

[portnoy1]

exactly. it's what we've always done, I don't understand how it's a surprise. It works, it's a good system, it just needs time.
Really? was it a good system in the 2001WCF when Tim duncan didnt get doubled? I think you see my point, Tim didnt get doubled. In the 4 games he had 1 really bad game. The others he played pretty well but the 3pt shots were either contested or not available because of not doubling Tim. If Lakers or any other Playoff team for that matter dont double Tim(which many dont anymore) or let Parker run wild and score 35pts or more (you know he'll take the bait) and shutdown the other perimeter players then we'll get our buts kicked.

[ManuTastic]

I only watched the first half of the OKC game, but the offense wasn't the problem (I know, we were up at the half). The shot selection was good, Tony was getting to the rim--just not finishing. The looks we had at 3s were pretty much wide open, they just weren't going down.
The main problem was the defense. OKC was at the rim all night. We MUST protect the paint or we'll be get bounced in the first round again. At the other end, we were getting into the paint pretty well, but we can't let the opposition go to the rack like OKC did. It's inexcusable.

So I think the offense just needs tweaks to make sure Jefferson gets worked in better. As others have noted, this team now has slashing athletes like it hasn't had in a looooong time: Jefferson, Hill, Tony, Manu. Pop definitely needs to notice that and use those penetrating abilities more. Letting those guys penetrate the lane and GET TO THE LINE is way more useful than hoisting up 3s. Kerr, Horry, SJax, etc. are gone. Bonner should follow soon, if my prayers are answered. Forget the 3-pt shot, Pop, and protect the paint. Please.

[bigbendbruisebrother]

The offense is fine. We're fucked on defense, especially up front. Remember when we used to ooh and ahh whenever we scored in the upper 90's? We're there. The difference is, then we were holding other teams in the 80's.

98 points for Spurs team should be enough to win.