draft87
11-22-2009, 05:58 AM
At the end of Preseason I tried to do some #s to predict rotations and stats. I knew I was looking the potential to have the highest scoring Spurs of the Duncan era.
After 10 games my #s didn't really change. The rotations look pretty similar except I threw in a minute or so into SF and PF to account for the serious small ball that is occasionally played. Here's a spread sheet I made of
1) predicted rotation minute averages
2) points per game
a)i'll update my complete box score average predictions
b)Haislip/Hairston/Mahinmi have at least 1 minute in at least position to account for them being on the team even though it's possible they won't play at all for most of the season. 1-3 minutes isn't gonna throw off the entire rotation
c) some players are listed at several positions. You first see George Hill playing 10 minutes and might go "what the fuck he'll play more than 10 minutes". Yes. I'm predicting he'll play 10 minutes at the point. At the next position, shooting guard, he's listed at 10 minutes as well. This means I predict him to play 20 minutes total. I put that in parentheses.
It's possible that a player will play the total minutes in parentheses but at only one main position.
All that said, once the offense gets running on all cylinders I anticipate a very high scoring Spurs team this season. I don't think there's any way to slow things down. It would be counter productive to tell all these talented scorers to censor themselves. I don't anticipate anyone averaging over 20PPG but I do expect any one of 7 players to go nuts one night and then fall back into the average for a bit. That's a good thing to have so many potent weapons. Seriously don't be surprised if you watch a game that we win against Phoenix, Cleveland, Houston, or New York with Matt Bonner as the high scorer at 16 or something. If Timmy/Dice/Blair are wrecking shit up inside expect the double teams to create big open shots for Red Rocket. If he heats up and hits 5(not uncommon) that's 15 right there. Throw in a streaking Mason/Finley/Bogans/Jefferson and then those teams can't double up leaving room for Timmy to do his thing. Most defenses won't ever be able to get comfortable with their coverage when we have it going cause we have weapons at every offensive skill set(Post, perimeter, slashing, spot-up, offensive rebound) IT'S SICK.
so here's the link:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0ArU0bQx3wRY0dDU4dU5zSm90Qkl1NkJUNk5veC1RU Xc&hl=en
Obviously Hairston/Haislip/Mahinmi probably won't average a combined 4PPG but there's a very good chance that Timmy will average more than 15. That type of situation might also happen with Jefferson/Ratliff/Bogans/Finley and the likes but this seems all realistic. Can you see George Hill averaging 10ppg? Yes. McDyess 10ppg? Yes. Blair at least 5ppg? Yes.
Can you imagine the Spurs Scoring the upwards of 119ppg? Crazy.
I put a decent amount of time/thought and examining PER, box scores, and film. Please don't reply by saying "Bonner is gay and can't score 8ppg" Other than crap like that I'm ok with someone saying, "There's no way in Hell!!!"
After 10 games my #s didn't really change. The rotations look pretty similar except I threw in a minute or so into SF and PF to account for the serious small ball that is occasionally played. Here's a spread sheet I made of
1) predicted rotation minute averages
2) points per game
a)i'll update my complete box score average predictions
b)Haislip/Hairston/Mahinmi have at least 1 minute in at least position to account for them being on the team even though it's possible they won't play at all for most of the season. 1-3 minutes isn't gonna throw off the entire rotation
c) some players are listed at several positions. You first see George Hill playing 10 minutes and might go "what the fuck he'll play more than 10 minutes". Yes. I'm predicting he'll play 10 minutes at the point. At the next position, shooting guard, he's listed at 10 minutes as well. This means I predict him to play 20 minutes total. I put that in parentheses.
It's possible that a player will play the total minutes in parentheses but at only one main position.
All that said, once the offense gets running on all cylinders I anticipate a very high scoring Spurs team this season. I don't think there's any way to slow things down. It would be counter productive to tell all these talented scorers to censor themselves. I don't anticipate anyone averaging over 20PPG but I do expect any one of 7 players to go nuts one night and then fall back into the average for a bit. That's a good thing to have so many potent weapons. Seriously don't be surprised if you watch a game that we win against Phoenix, Cleveland, Houston, or New York with Matt Bonner as the high scorer at 16 or something. If Timmy/Dice/Blair are wrecking shit up inside expect the double teams to create big open shots for Red Rocket. If he heats up and hits 5(not uncommon) that's 15 right there. Throw in a streaking Mason/Finley/Bogans/Jefferson and then those teams can't double up leaving room for Timmy to do his thing. Most defenses won't ever be able to get comfortable with their coverage when we have it going cause we have weapons at every offensive skill set(Post, perimeter, slashing, spot-up, offensive rebound) IT'S SICK.
so here's the link:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0ArU0bQx3wRY0dDU4dU5zSm90Qkl1NkJUNk5veC1RU Xc&hl=en
Obviously Hairston/Haislip/Mahinmi probably won't average a combined 4PPG but there's a very good chance that Timmy will average more than 15. That type of situation might also happen with Jefferson/Ratliff/Bogans/Finley and the likes but this seems all realistic. Can you see George Hill averaging 10ppg? Yes. McDyess 10ppg? Yes. Blair at least 5ppg? Yes.
Can you imagine the Spurs Scoring the upwards of 119ppg? Crazy.
I put a decent amount of time/thought and examining PER, box scores, and film. Please don't reply by saying "Bonner is gay and can't score 8ppg" Other than crap like that I'm ok with someone saying, "There's no way in Hell!!!"