Legler: West Playoff Forecast: Thunder In, Spurs Out

[DieMrBond]

1. West Playoff Forecast: Thunder In, Spurs Out
By Tim Legler
ESPN.com
http://espn.go.com/nba/dailydime/_/page/dime-091123/seeding-west

Four weeks of action in the 2009-10 NBA season have given us a good outline of how this season might play out. In fact, I've changed my projection of how I initially saw the field of playoff teams in the West.

The Dallas Mavericks in particular have moved up. This is a team playing with a lot of energy, getting guys to buy into roles. Notably, Jason Kidd has transformed himself into a consistent 3-point shooter, something you couldn't say about him in his last year in New Jersey. That shooting has helped open up the offense and spread the floor.

On the downside, the San Antonio Spurs have looked so disinterested, they actually moved out of the playoffs. I thought the additions of Richard Jefferson and DeJuan Blair would give them some energy, along with Manu Ginobili being healthy (he's not). But the Spurs, who moved back to .500 with a win Monday over Milwaukee, have not played with a whole lot of passion. Still, we've learned not to write the final book on them until spring.

Come April, here's how I see the Western Conference playoff seeds playing out 1 to 8:

1. Los Angeles Lakers -- When Andrew Bynum is playing this well, this Lakers team is scary. Complacency is the only thing that keeps them from challenging 65-70 wins. Clearly the best in the West.

2. Dallas Mavericks -- They've been a nice surprise when this could have been a team headed in the opposite direction. They've played good defense. Dirk Nowitzki has been one of the 2 or 3 best fourth-quarter players this year. The Mavs have done a good job spreading around the job of helping him carry the scoring load, sometimes Jason Terry, Shawn Marion, J.J. Barea, Kidd and others. This team is playing with a lot more energy than it did a year ago.

3. Phoenix Suns -- Good to see the Suns back to being themselves. I understand that you need to be able to compete when the game slows down in playoff basketball -- but that doesn't matter if you don't make the playoffs in the first place.

So the Suns are back to letting Steve Nash make great decisions and pick an opponent apart better than anybody. The team has had some unexpected contributions from Channing Frye, solid play from Grant Hill while Jason Richardson has just been great.

They finally got back to who they were: Nash and Amare Stoudemire in the middle of the floor, running the pick-and-roll, surrounded by 3-point shooters outside.

4. Denver Nuggets -- Carmelo Anthony is in the best shape of his life, and looks to be more committed to winning than at any point in his career. He's taken on a leadership role. It's much easier to to get role players to follow when the best player sets the tone.

5. Portland Trail Blazers -- An improving team whose key will be continuing to get consistent play from Greg Oden, who had a big night Monday in the win over Chicago. He needs to be a guy who finishes around the rim (he's shooting an NBA-best 64 percent from the field) and is a deterrent at the other end. He's off to a good start.

6. Houston Rockets -- If you looked up the word "team" in the dictionary, you would find the Rockets. They take off fewer plays than anybody else in the league. They have very few blown assignments. On offense, it's going to be a struggle to score. Coach Rick Adelman keeps his fingers crossed that somebody will get hot.

Trevor Ariza has more than lived up to what was expected (18.3 points, 5.4 rebounds and 3.4 assists) to earn his money. With Tracy McGrady's injury history, if I'm Adelman I coach the team like T-Mac's is not going to be there.

7. Utah Jazz -- The Jazz are playing their best ball of the season now. However, until they learn to win on the road in a good team's arena, we can't take them seriously as a contending team, even with the talent they have. You must win on the road.

8. Oklahoma City Thunder -- Their day is coming. Russell Westbrook was my preseason pick to be a breakout player. Kevin Durant will be a scoring champ one day. James Harden has come in and done a good job as a rookie in the sixth-man role.

This team looks like they're having lots of fun playing together. They have the parts to become the next formidable team to rise in the West, whether it's this season or next.

ESPN analyst Tim Legler is a regular contributor to the Daily Dime.




Somebody missing Tim? You seriously think the Spurs won't make the playoffs at all?

[L.I.T]

That's...interesting.

[NZ Spurs]

Because playing with passion in November has done wonders for the Mavs in the past. Legler is an idiot.

[will_spurs]

Because playing with passion in November has done wonders for the Mavs in the past. Legler is an idiot.

Didn't you get the memo that championships are won in November?

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Legler has a reputation for a reason. I wonder who's stupid enough to pay him for his brain farts and why.

[lurker23]

Whatever respect Legler had left as an analyst is gone now. Good job, Legs. :tu

[polandprzem]

Legler has a reputation for a reason. I wonder who's stupid enough to pay him for his brain farts and why.

As long as we was talking all good things about spurs he was great and not near being an idiot, right?

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

As long as we was talking all good things about spurs he was great and not near being an idiot, right?

Not in the slightest. Unless you can find a post of mine praising Legler for saying good things about the Spurs you might as well just shut the fuck up.Thanks.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

Ah, Legler, you spoke waaaaaay too soon.

Let's dig this thread up in April and SPAM that fucker's email. ;)

[ezau]

so what does this mean? Tank the season?

[polandprzem]

Not in the slightest. Unless you can find a post of mine praising Legler for saying good things about the Spurs you might as well just shut the fuck up.Thanks.

So sensitive :rolleyes

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

So sensitive :rolleyes

It was a bit over the top, sorry :)

[polandprzem]

It's all cool


I even likes it better when spurs are out of the picture. many ppl were hyped up about spurs additions but now we need to face reality. Pop is not an instant coach, he makes processes which takes a lot of time for players to adapt, when they click it;s fantastic but when they don't all will fall and we are doomed :)

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

It's all cool


I even likes it better when spurs are out of the picture. many ppl were hyped up about spurs additions but now we need to face reality. Pop is not an instant coach, he makes processes which takes a lot of time for players to adapt, when they click it;s fantastic but when they don't all will fall and we are doomed :)

Yes you're right, it's been like that in all of our title winning seasons, so projecting the Spurs out of the playoffs after a 6:6 start is idiotic and every fan with an ounce of basketball knowledge knows it. Last year, after the poor start, Hollinger was projecting the Spurs out of the playoffs, but even he admitted that the assessment was based purely on the numbers from the first few games, which did not represent the correct state of the team.

I said Legler had a bad reputation because he can't do a serious research/article/assessment without inserting this Spurs team in the playoffs, some of his other work suggests he's not one of the most knowledgeable analysts and I'm sure most people would agree with this. In this article he's just stirring shit, trying to sound clever and all that, failing miserably. I doubt he'd make a bet on whether the Spurs or the Thunder would be in/out of the playoffs, but then widely recognised bullshit and knowing fuck all has hardly stopped him from spewing his takes, hasn't it.

[Mel_13]

Last year Hollinger, this year Legler.

At least Hollinger's early season estimates were just the results of a set of calculations. No personal analysis was involved.

Legler's making a much more subjective judgment based primarily on a perceived lack of passion and energy. Makes you wonder which parts of which games he has actually watched.

[Spurs Brazil]

Spurs not in the Playoffs?

:lol
:lol
:lol
:lol
:lol
:lol
:lol
:lol

[K-State Spur]

As long as we was talking all good things about spurs he was great and not near being an idiot, right?

no, he was an idiot before too. just coincidentally right at times.

[DieMrBond]

My only hope is he was basing it on TODAY's results, and not the future expected results where the Spurs actually 'click' and start their usual climb up the rankings...

But to leave them out of the playoffs is just plain nutjob crazy.
Only way that happens is .... well, you know - and i ain't jinxing it.

[xellos88330]

Someone needs to dickslap Legler.

He just took all current standings and rearranged them. Talk about lazy.

[Supergirl]

I don't think he actually watches Spurs games, because from what I can tell, Spurs are actually picking up energy with the last 3-4 games. They're playing better defense and playing better as a team. And yes, it's only 12 games into their season.

But it shouldn't surprised anyone he doesn't watch the games, this is nothing new. If the networks actually put more of the games on TV outside of south Texas maybe people would watch them. Oh well. Spurs play better under the radar.

[Creation88]

i call this retarded

[ElNono]

Good... less people in the bandwagon. Let's fly under the radar...

[SpurNation]

Ah, Legler, you spoke waaaaaay too soon.

Let's dig this thread up in April and SPAM that dude's email. ;)

Kinda what I was thinking. But he'll change his mind between now and then. Most fly by the seat of your pants people do.

[SenorSpur]

This is the same guy who initially predicted that the Spurs would meet Boston in the NBA Finals. Now we're expected to believe he's predicted the Spurs wont even make the playoffs? Amazing.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

C'mon, more props for my SPAM joke, pulease... :rollin

[TJastal]

This is the same guy who initially predicted that the Spurs would meet Boston in the NBA Finals. Now we're expected to believe he's predicted the Spurs wont even make the playoffs? Amazing.

Kind of funny to think about, he was probably the only ESPN analyst to pick SPURS for the championship, and here they sat with a losing record after a couple handfuls of games. He was probably getting all kinds of shit from his cohorts at ESPN. I bet he was pissed off at the spurs and got a little revenge with this new article.

And as he quickly scrambles to save face it appears Pop has finally got his starting lineups and rotations figured out and everyone on the same page. The engine looks like its finally starting to turn, and when the spurs get this thing going they are going to leave the Thunder in the dust. I wonder what he'll say then when the spurs secure the #3 seed. :hat

[sananspursfan21]

:lol at the thought of the spurs out of the playoffs this year

[Duncan2177]

Legler is gonna look like a idiot in a couple of months. BOOK IT :flag:

[SenorSpur]

Legler is gonna look like a idiot in a couple of months. BOOK IT :flag:

Right now, he looks like a fish out of water - with the way he's flopping around.

[Dex]

http://www.newscientist.com/blogs/shortsharpscience/Dunce_Cap.jpg
What a dumb dumb. :nope

[Chieflion]

I think I can write better articles than him. He is trying to add hype to his article so people will pay attention to it.

[Mel_13]

I think I can write better articles than him. He is trying to add hype to his article so people will pay attention to it.

That's all it really is. The headline "Suns in, Hornets out" is not nearly as interesting.

[Rapper]

Who can help me to give a f word to Legler?

[narmerguy]

I'm excited to see how the analysis of the spurs will fare at the season halfway point.

[NFGIII]

Funny article. As senor spur stated he did pick the Spurs to meet Boston in the Finals. So 10 or so games into the season the Spurs are toast? I understand that as an analyst you are expected to write about the season as it unfolds but to flop so quickly at such an early point? Get a grip dude and calm down. He is going to look pretty stupid in a couple of months if not sooner.

With this team at full strength and about 20 - 30 games under their belt we will begin to see them come together IMHO. Our season opener was an aboration but I've been seeing signs that they are starting to figure it out on the floor. Spacing seems to be better now and RJ is starting to connect with TD.

[Borosai]

This forecast has no legs.

[Danny.Zhu]

Jinx article?

[all_heart]

C'mon, more props for my SPAM joke, pulease... :rollin

What joke?!! Let's do it for real man!!:lol

[dbestpro]

Okay, then this question has to be asked. "How good would the Spurs be if they played with the passion of the Rockets?"

and if it is significant shouldn't Pop stop trying to be a comedian or wise ass and actually start trying to pump some MOTIVATION into the team?

[rjv]

aso analysts now get to make season predictions every month now? when june comes around will he be able to make his last final's prediction then as well?

[celldweller]

Wow, talk about overreaction. He's probably a closet SpursTalk poster. :lol

[phxspurfan]

Wasn't Legler one of the only ESPN talking heads that said the Spurs would win the WCF this year (before the season started)? Now he's saying we won't even make the playoffs...? :huh

[TIMMYD!]

Ah, Legler, you spoke waaaaaay too soon.

Let's dig this thread up in April and SPAM that fucker's email. ;)

I'm all for it, so does anyone know his email?

[Mavs101]

Because playing with passion in November has done wonders for the Mavs in the past. Legler is an idiot.

So you are saying the Mavs will fizzle out? I'm going to assume you watch only Spurs games. When it comes time for the playoffs we know both the Spurs and the Mavs will be there. The Mavs have yet to escape the second round in a few years but we shall see this year. I can understand your being upset with this guy leaving your team out of the playoff race but really bagging on the Mavs when you KNOW they will be a playoff contender is ridiculous.

[ambchang]

He took the top 8 teams in the Western conference right now, and just shuffled it a little bit to put Lakers on top.

After about 13 games into the season, he is already drawing conclusions as to who is in and who is out of the playoffs. This is just stupid.

[Blackjack]

:lmao

As has been mentioned, he picked the Spurs to meet Boston in the Finals, and I'm pretty sure I heard him predict them to win it.

What's just as amusing, the early success of the Suns has him apparently all warm and fuzzy inside; I'm sure that's just a coincidence that his most in-depth analysis happened to be reserved for the Suns..

[SamoanTD]

Good... less people in the bandwagon. Let's fly under the radar...
exactly :flag:

[G-Nob]

I wanna know where the lottery ball at!

[SpursWench21]

Hey Legler, when youre wrong....youre dead wrong.

-Chuck Norris, "Side Kicks"

[rayray2k8]

Wait a minute, didn't this idiot pick the spurs to come out of the west??
Bet he'll be changing his predictions again. Fucking flip floppers. :rolleyes

[LOL@MavsFan]

LOL @ ESPN's NBA "experts"

[Spur|n|Austin]

:lol

[easjer]

Wow. An article which talks about the big teams in the West and notes that the Spurs have gotten off to a surprisingly rocky start while the big three have all been injured and they are working to fit in the new pieces is one thing. That's fair. And actually, I'm enjoying the Thunder this year, they do have some nice pieces.

To decide on the basis of 15% of the season that the Spurs won't make the playoffs? Especially given the above?

That's not only foolhardy, it's just plain lazy.

[Galileo]

According to basketball reference, the Spurs are still an above average team, despite how poor they have played:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/2010.html

Points Per Game: 100.8 (12th of 30)

Opponent Points Per Game: 97.5 (14th of 30)

[12 + 14 = 26, better than average, which would be a combined total of 31]

Pythagorean W-L: 7-5 (11th of 30)

SRS: 4.71 (8th of 30)

Pace Factor: 90.2 (27th of 30) [perhaps Legler thinks a slow pace = disinterested?]

Offensive Rating: 110.9 (5th of 30)

Defensive Rating: 107.2 (18th of 30)

[5 + 18 = 23 < 31]

Picking the Spurs out of the playoffs is insane. Legler is even worse an an announcer than he was as a player.

The top 16 teams make the playoffs. The only area the Spurs are not in the top 16 is defensive rating, where they are 18 and likely to improve. But this is more than offset by being the # 5 best offensive rated team.

The Spurs are in the top 16 in both points scored and fewest points allowed per game, I'll bet not that many teams can boast that.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/stats/byteam?cat1=Total&cat2=diff&conference=NBA&year=season_2009

The Spurs are also #8 in point differential, way better than what you need to make the playoffs. And the slow pace brings that number down a little.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

What joke?!! Let's do it for real man!!:lol

SPAM = unwanted email

SPAM = Spurs Play After March

I'm a comic genius. ;) :lmao


I'm all for it, so does anyone know his email?

We have to wait until March or April so we can really shove it down his throat. It won't be hard to find his email address.

[quentin_compson]

Notably, Jason Kidd has transformed himself into a consistent 3-point shooter, something you couldn't say about him in his last year in New Jersey. That shooting has helped open up the offense and spread the floor.



Uh, Kidd has been hitting the three over 40 % since he joined Dallas two seasons ago. You could argue that it isn't very bright to reduce a Hall of Fame PG to a spot-up shooter, and you could also argue that even Nowitzki won't always be able to bail them out like he did in a lot of their games so far.

And as far as Spurs missing the playoffs goes - :downspin:. We won 54 games last season without having Manu for the most part of the season. This season's team is much deeper, and it's not like the West has gotten that much tougher.

[timaios]

SPAM = unwanted email

SPAM = Spurs Play After March

I'm a comic genius. ;) :lmao



We have to wait until March or April so we can really shove it down his throat. It won't be hard to find his email address.

I think it is : Spurs Peak After March. :p:

[Bartleby]

Not that it really matters since the prediction itself is laughably bad, but the word Legler was looking for is "uninterested." Refs can be disinterested (event though they rarely are), but it seems logically impossible to apply that word to a team or player.

[41times]

Look i don't put much stock in Legler's opinion.

However, this is what i think is important about early season records. You can not get too far behind or you are doomed.

When it comes to playoff time, and yes i think the Spurs make the Playoffs.

However, if you are not in the top 4 seeds you have almost NO hope of making the Finals.

So while the Spurs are fine as far as it comes to still making the playoffs. If they are not in the top 4 seeds they have very little chance of winning a title.

Name the only team in the last 30 years in the WEST to come from the bottom 4 seeds to win a title.......................

[dbreiden83080]

Because playing with passion in November has done wonders for the Mavs in the past. Legler is an idiot.

:lol

[EmptyMan]

LOLOLOL Legler jumped that ship in record time.

[EmptyMan]

Hopefully SPDIAM


Spurs Play Defense Inside After March.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

I think it is : Spurs Peak After March. :p:

Yeah probably, but I think of it as Spurs Play After March, as in really get down and play the freakin game to win (rather than screwing around), which is effectively the same thing.

;)

[41times]

Look i don't put much stock in Legler's opinion.

However, this is what i think is important about early season records. You can not get too far behind or you are doomed.

When it comes to playoff time, and yes i think the Spurs make the Playoffs.

However, if you are not in the top 4 seeds you have almost NO hope of making the Finals.

So while the Spurs are fine as far as it comes to still making the playoffs. If they are not in the top 4 seeds they have very little chance of winning a title.

Name the only team in the last 30 years in the WEST to come from the bottom 4 seeds to win a title.......................

You cant win a title from the 5th seed (or worse) unless you are Houston with Hakeem

[aquiet20&10]

relax guys, it's all part of his elaborate plan :lol obviously legs is just trying to light a fire under the spurs so that they can go on a tear under the radar and end up in the Finals, just like he predicted.....right? i mean he cant possibly be serious....can he??

[DesignatedT]

You cant win a title from the 5th seed (or worse) unless you are Houston with Hakeem

The Spurs are only 3 games behind the Mavs for 1st place... this really isnt that big of a deal.... AT ALL. legler is a dumbass period to write ANYONE off this early

[EP Money Man]

1. West Playoff Forecast: Thunder In, Spurs Out
By Tim Legler
ESPN.com
http://espn.go.com/nba/dailydime/_/page/dime-091123/seeding-west

Come April, here's how I see the Western Conference playoff seeds playing out 1 to 8:

. . .

ESPN analyst Tim Legler is a regular contributor to the Daily Dime.


Yeah come April I'll win the lotto.

APRIL? So how does it make sense to pick now?

Just call it November champs, that makes more sense.

ESPN analyst Tim Legler is a regular douche, laker ass licker. :flag:

[Sean Cagney]

Look i don't put much stock in Legler's opinion.

However, this is what i think is important about early season records. You can not get too far behind or you are doomed.

When it comes to playoff time, and yes i think the Spurs make the Playoffs.

However, if you are not in the top 4 seeds you have almost NO hope of making the Finals.

So while the Spurs are fine as far as it comes to still making the playoffs. If they are not in the top 4 seeds they have very little chance of winning a title.

Name the only team in the last 30 years in the WEST to come from the bottom 4 seeds to win a title.......................Rockets 95? Don't know their seeding but they were hurt up all year long and clicked last, they won what 47 games or so then and went on to win the title? Most on the ROAD...... It can happen.

[Budkin]

Really Legler? Really??