ducks
04-21-2005, 03:37 PM
Mavericks-Rockets Breakdown
Marty Burns, SI.com
Headshot
Logo
The Mavericks will win if ...
Erick Dampier stays aggressive at both ends, and they don't abandon their newfound defensive identity. Dampier (9.2 points, 8.5 rebounds) has the size and bulk to defend Yao Ming, but he has to play smart and avoid foul trouble. Thanks in large part to his presence in the middle, the Mavs' D is no longer a sieve. They ranked in the top 10 in field-goal percentage allowed (43.8 percent) and were first in 3-point field-goal defense (32.7). With the long-armed Josh Howard to defend Tracy McGrady, the Mavs won't be easy for Houston. Offensively, Dallas has ample scorers in the likes of Dirk Nowitzki, Michael Finley, Jason Terry, Jerry Stackhouse and Keith Van Horn. But keep a close eye on Terry. He shot 50 percent from the floor (42.2 from downtown) and is excited about making his first playoff appearance.
The Rockets will win if ...
They can find a way to slow Nowitzki, and McGrady's supporting cast can knock down shots from the perimeter. Houston's defense ranks 2nd in the NBA in field-goal percentage allowed (42.4 percent) and is fourth in points allowed (91.4). With coach Jeff Van Gundy at the helm, they no doubt will be well-prepared. But the Rockets will be hard-pressed to counter all of Dallas' weapons, especially with Juwan Howard (heart virus) out for the season. They're going to need more offense in this series to make up for it, and McGrady won't be able to do it alone. Yao needs to attack in the post, and T-Mac's wing men need to hit shots to keep Dallas from collapsing on him. Bob Sura, David Wesley, Mike James and Jon Barry are all capable shooters, but they have been streaky all season.
ADVERTISEMENT
Key matchup
Nowitzki vs. The Three-Headed Monster
Nowitzki pumped in 53 points to outduel McGrady (48) in the Mavs' 113-106 OT victory on Dec. 2. For the season series Nowitzki averaged 26.3 points and 9.8 rebounds in three games (he sat out the final matchup, a 90-69 Rockets victory on March 6). With Howard out, Clarence Weatherspoon, Scott Padgett and Ryan Bowen will rotate against the 7-foot German. But Weatherspoon is short (6-7), while Padgett and Bowen are career role players. Weatherspoon must use his bulk on offense to bull in and create fouls on Nowitzki when he gets a chance. On defense the Rockets must stay out on Nowitzki and force him to drive into the lane, where Yao and Dikembe Mutombo do a great job protecting the rim.
Interesting fact
These two Texas rivals have met just once in the postseason, back in 1988. The Mavs won the first-round series 3-1 on their way to the Western Conference finals.
The pick
Van Gundy is going to make this "I-45" series more painful to watch than a traffic jam. Both teams come in red hot, with solid defenses and clear-cut go-to guys. But Dallas has more offensive firepower, and home-court advantage. Mavs in 7.
Marty Burns, SI.com
Headshot
Logo
The Mavericks will win if ...
Erick Dampier stays aggressive at both ends, and they don't abandon their newfound defensive identity. Dampier (9.2 points, 8.5 rebounds) has the size and bulk to defend Yao Ming, but he has to play smart and avoid foul trouble. Thanks in large part to his presence in the middle, the Mavs' D is no longer a sieve. They ranked in the top 10 in field-goal percentage allowed (43.8 percent) and were first in 3-point field-goal defense (32.7). With the long-armed Josh Howard to defend Tracy McGrady, the Mavs won't be easy for Houston. Offensively, Dallas has ample scorers in the likes of Dirk Nowitzki, Michael Finley, Jason Terry, Jerry Stackhouse and Keith Van Horn. But keep a close eye on Terry. He shot 50 percent from the floor (42.2 from downtown) and is excited about making his first playoff appearance.
The Rockets will win if ...
They can find a way to slow Nowitzki, and McGrady's supporting cast can knock down shots from the perimeter. Houston's defense ranks 2nd in the NBA in field-goal percentage allowed (42.4 percent) and is fourth in points allowed (91.4). With coach Jeff Van Gundy at the helm, they no doubt will be well-prepared. But the Rockets will be hard-pressed to counter all of Dallas' weapons, especially with Juwan Howard (heart virus) out for the season. They're going to need more offense in this series to make up for it, and McGrady won't be able to do it alone. Yao needs to attack in the post, and T-Mac's wing men need to hit shots to keep Dallas from collapsing on him. Bob Sura, David Wesley, Mike James and Jon Barry are all capable shooters, but they have been streaky all season.
ADVERTISEMENT
Key matchup
Nowitzki vs. The Three-Headed Monster
Nowitzki pumped in 53 points to outduel McGrady (48) in the Mavs' 113-106 OT victory on Dec. 2. For the season series Nowitzki averaged 26.3 points and 9.8 rebounds in three games (he sat out the final matchup, a 90-69 Rockets victory on March 6). With Howard out, Clarence Weatherspoon, Scott Padgett and Ryan Bowen will rotate against the 7-foot German. But Weatherspoon is short (6-7), while Padgett and Bowen are career role players. Weatherspoon must use his bulk on offense to bull in and create fouls on Nowitzki when he gets a chance. On defense the Rockets must stay out on Nowitzki and force him to drive into the lane, where Yao and Dikembe Mutombo do a great job protecting the rim.
Interesting fact
These two Texas rivals have met just once in the postseason, back in 1988. The Mavs won the first-round series 3-1 on their way to the Western Conference finals.
The pick
Van Gundy is going to make this "I-45" series more painful to watch than a traffic jam. Both teams come in red hot, with solid defenses and clear-cut go-to guys. But Dallas has more offensive firepower, and home-court advantage. Mavs in 7.