Freethrows are overrated

[Jimcs50]

Attention AHF....we don't need no stinkin FT coach.

The top 4 teams in the playoffs are all in the bottom of the league in FT percentage.

Rank in the league:

Miami is 30th
SA is 26th
Detroit 24th
Phoenix 22nd

Dallas is 4th, so they are exception.


Interesting.

[benjirh]

Your kidding right. If the spurs could hit free throws we would be close to a 70 win team, no questions asked.

[Felonius Monk]

If the spurs could hit free throws we would be close to a 70 win team, no questions asked.

BS

If we made 76.5% of our free throws (about the NBA average) in every game, we would have won 2 more games. I'll grant you that we or our opponent might have played differently changing the outcome of a couple more ... but free throws only kept us from a 61 or 63 game season.

[HawkBat]

BS

If we made 76.5% of our free throws (about the NBA average) in every game, we would have won 2 more games. I'll grant you that we or our opponent might have played differently changing the outcome of a couple more ... but free throws only kept us from a 61 or 63 game season.

Maybe not 70 wins, but 63 would have been good enough to give us HCA.

[Tek_XX]

Are you saying that extra points don't matter? Dude you're an idiot.

[Jimcs50]

Are you saying that extra points don't matter? Dude you're an idiot.


Hey dumbass, I am just posting an interesting stat based on fact. This shows that the top 4 teams are not good FT shooting team and they still finished 1-4. If all the top 4 teams shot 76 %, then they would all have won a couple more games, yes??? That is not my point , you freaking moron...only someone with some gray matter would have seen that.
:rolleyes

[leemajors]

it seems more than anything to indicate that their talent enables them to overcome their ft deficiency. the spurs really do need to get better at the line, period. except for manu and barry, that is.

[SuBZer0]

Dunking is overrated...Free throws are not

[Rick Von Braun]

BS

If we made 76.5% of our free throws (about the NBA average) in every game, we would have won 2 more games. I'll grant you that we or our opponent might have played differently changing the outcome of a couple more ... but free throws only kept us from a 61 or 63 game season. Hmm... how do you come up with this number?

Improving the Spurs' FT% at the rate you mentioned would have meant an average increase in scoring differential of 1.2 pts/games. That is quite significant.

In 14 out of the 23 losses, the Spurs could have won the game by just hitting their FTs at a higher rate. In 8 of those 14 games, the number of FTs missed were at least double the final score differential. The Spurs could have won an extra 5 games easily by averaging 76.5% from the charity stripe. Those games would have meant HCA for the entire playoffs and the best record in the league.

I don't believe FTs are the most important issue, but everything helps.

[ALVAREZ6]

FT's are easy shots, I don't understand how the Spurs can't hit their FT's when they are being paid millions.

Shooting 100 foul shots per day at each practice is enough to improve your foul shooting, and 100 shots from the line is the least they could do for that much freakin' money.

I mean, it seems like Duncan almost wants to be laughed at when he shoots his foul shots...I mean, who the hell stands pidgeon-toed while shooting?

And Rasho...he has a nice form, nice looking shot for a big man...but his % still sucks major ass.

[Sportcamper]

A fellow "Oprah" fan... :smokin
http://www.shaav.com/travel/egypt/giza/oprah.jpg

[Felonius Monk]

Hmm... how do you come up with this number?


Losses
1. Seattle by 21. Free throws were not a factor.
2. Toronoto by 5. At 76.5%, we make 23 free throws (actually made 21). Add 2 points.
3. Memphis by 3. At 76.5%, we make 17 or 18 rather than 16. Not enough to change the actual results but it might have changed the way the game was played down the stretch. **
4. Seattle by 6. We shot 75.8%. No change.
5. Houston by 1. We shot 88%.
6. Orlando. Yes, free throws definitely made a difference. *
7. Sacto by 5. At 76.5%, we make 13 or 14 rather than 9. May have changed. **
8. Utah by 1. At 76.5%, we get to add 1 point. Another maybe. **
9. Houston by 6. At 76.5%, we make 20 rather than 17.
10. Portland by 8. We shot over 80%. Free throws not a factor.
11. Washington by 8. We only shot 13 free throws. Not a factor.
12. Miami by 4. We shot over 80%. Not a factor.
13. Memphis by 2. We shot over 76.5%.
14. Phoenix by 6. We shot 75%. No change if we shoot 76.5%.
15. Denver by 3. We shot 76.2%. No change if we shoot 76.5%.
16. Detroit by 10. We shot over 77%.
17. NY by 13. FTs not important here.
18. Indiana by 7. We shot over 80%.
19. Denver by 18.
20. Dallas by a bunch.
21. Utah by 2. We shot 75%. Another one or two would have helped. **
22. Memphis by 2. We shot 100%. Can't improve on that.
23. Minny by 22.

A single * denotes a game where we would have won. A double ** denotes a game where the outcome may have changed at the end because of the FT situation. I think that there is 1 * and 4 **. You can't expect to win all that you might have so that's why I said 61-63 games ... it could have been 64 or 60.

I don't mean to downplay the importance of free throws. I just object to sweeping exaggerations like we would have won 70 games if we could shoot free throws. Curiously enough, we averaged almost 74% FT shooting in our losses and 71.8% FT shooting in our wins.

[Felonius Monk]

Shooting 100 foul shots per day at each practice is enough to improve your foul shooting, and 100 shots from the line is the least they could do for that much freakin' money.


Do you know for a fact that they don't shoot 100 FT/day?

[Rick Von Braun]

Losses
1. Seattle by 21. Free throws were not a factor.
2. Toronoto by 5. At 76.5%, we make 23 free throws (actually made 21). Add 2 points.
3. Memphis by 3. At 76.5%, we make 17 or 18 rather than 16. Not enough to change the actual results but it might have changed the way the game was played down the stretch. **
4. Seattle by 6. We shot 75.8%. No change.
5. Houston by 1. We shot 88%.
6. Orlando. Yes, free throws definitely made a difference. *
7. Sacto by 5. At 76.5%, we make 13 or 14 rather than 9. May have changed. **
8. Utah by 1. At 76.5%, we get to add 1 point. Another maybe. **
9. Houston by 6. At 76.5%, we make 20 rather than 17.
10. Portland by 8. We shot over 80%. Free throws not a factor.
11. Washington by 8. We only shot 13 free throws. Not a factor.
12. Miami by 4. We shot over 80%. Not a factor.
13. Memphis by 2. We shot over 76.5%.
14. Phoenix by 6. We shot 75%. No change if we shoot 76.5%.
15. Denver by 3. We shot 76.2%. No change if we shoot 76.5%.
16. Detroit by 10. We shot over 77%.
17. NY by 13. FTs not important here.
18. Indiana by 7. We shot over 80%.
19. Denver by 18.
20. Dallas by a bunch.
21. Utah by 2. We shot 75%. Another one or two would have helped. **
22. Memphis by 2. We shot 100%. Can't improve on that.
23. Minny by 22.

A single * denotes a game where we would have won. A double ** denotes a game where the outcome may have changed at the end because of the FT situation. I think that there is 1 * and 4 **. You can't expect to win all that you might have so that's why I said 61-63 games ... it could have been 64 or 60.

I don't mean to downplay the importance of free throws. I just object to sweeping exaggerations like we would have won 70 games if we could shoot free throws. Curiously enough, we averaged almost 74% FT shooting in our losses and 71.8% FT shooting in our wins.
I think we are mostly in agreement. Your maximum number of extra wins would be 4 (for a total of 63 wins), my average number of extra wins would be 5 (for a total of 64), not an outstanding difference. We agree that getting to 70 wins, while possible, it would probably be a stretch. I guess that we also agree that finishing the season either with 63 or 64 wins, the best record in the NBA, and HCA throughout the playoffs would be beneficial, even from the psychological point of view.

Now a couple of caveats in your analysis. Your main assumption is that in the losses the Spurs' FT% goes up to the average target (~77% max). I dispute that. If only in the losses you go up to 77%, it would be difficult for the Spurs to end up with a 77% average the entire season. There are games the Spurs may shot 87% and some other games they shot 67%. Without a serious analysis on the distribution of the missed FTs by the team and by each player, it is a moot point to argue the exact number of wins. On the one hand, one could argue that the Spurs improve their FTs only in the games that already won, improving their season FT% average but winning zero extra games. On the other hand, one could say that the Spurs improve their FTs to 100% in all the 14 losses I identified, winning 14 more games. Instead, I took a medium stance.

There are 9 games that the Spurs missed almost double or more FTs than the final game point differential. Those games are:

Sun 21 @ Toronto (http://www.nba.com/raptors/) L 91 - 96 (http://www.nba.com/games/20041121/SASTOR/boxscore.html) missed 10 FTs
Mon 22 @ Memphis (http://www.nba.com/grizzlies/) L 90 - 93 (http://www.nba.com/games/20041122/SASMEM/boxscore.html) missed 6 FTs
Thu 9 @ Houston (http://www.nba.com/rockets/) L 80 - 81 (http://www.nba.com/games/20041209/SASHOU/boxscore.html) missed 3 FTs
Wed 22 @ Orlando (http://www.nba.com/magic/) L 87 - 93 (http://www.nba.com/games/20041222/SASORL/boxscore.html) missed 13 FTs
Sun 2 @ Sacramento (http://www.nba.com/kings/) L 81 - 86 (http://www.nba.com/games/20050102/SASSAC/boxscore.html) missed 9 FTs
Sat 12 Denver (http://www.nba.com/nuggets/) L 87 - 90 (http://www.nba.com/games/20050312/DENSAS/boxscore.html) missed 5 FTs
Sat 26 Memphis (http://www.nba.com/grizzlies/) L 82 - 84 (http://www.nba.com/games/20050226/MEMSAS/boxscore.html) missed 7 FTs
Mon 10 @ Utah (http://www.nba.com/jazz/) L 96 - 97 (http://www.nba.com/games/20050110/SASUTA/boxscore.html) missed 9 FTs
Wed 13 @ Utah (http://www.nba.com/jazz/) L 91 - 93 (http://www.nba.com/games/20050413/SASUTA/boxscore.html) missed 10 FTs

In those games, the Spurs had a pretty good chance to win the game with an improved FT% (not up to the maximum average target percentage but by hiting more of the FTs missed). If the Spurs have an average of ~77% in all games, they are statistically bound to win some of the games mentioned above, because they will convert some of those misses into hit FTs (in order to improve 5% total their average). I used only the games where the number of FTs missed far exceeded the game point differential, to prevent statistical outliers. I picked 5 extra wins in those 9 games. You could have picked 4 extra wins. Without knowing the exact distribution, we cannot tell, but 4-5 extra wins is a pretty good conservative estimate.

Once again, I don't think FTs are the most important issue with this team, but improving the FT% to the league average would give you some extra wins that are always important.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

It's not just a black and white "we shot this many and lost by this many, increasing it by this much percentage means this".

You have to factor in things like guys like Tony and Tim, in particular, going to the hole more aggressively in crunch time if they're confident they're hitting their FTs.

I've seen Duncan resort to jumpers late in games when he was hitting horribly at the FT line earlier. Gotta think that would change if he was shooting better. It may not be a conscious thing, but it's gotta play somewhere in the subconscious for guys when they're not hitting FTs for crap.

But hell, even if it's just four games, that's home court. And my FT frustrations mainly come out of the playoffs. Go back and look at that LA series (particularly the .4 game) and crunch some FT numbers on those and get back to me.

[Felonius Monk]

Go back and look at that LA series (particularly the .4 game) and crunch some FT numbers on those and get back to me.


Neither I nor RVB are saying that free throws are not important. They are. They can and do decide games .. just like your example of the 0.4 game. And they have decided a couple this year, maybe more. As you say (and I acknowledged in my first post), play down the stretch may be different when free throws have been going in.

My intent was simply to point out that improved free throw shooting does not turn us into a 70 win team or one that would "rarely lose." Making free throws at critical times may indeed be the difference between going fishing and winning a championship. Or as you and others have pointed out mean HCA throughout the playoffs.

[Jimcs50]

Well, the truly great teams can win w/o good FT shooting, the facts are there. The top 4 teams in the NBA suck at FT shooting. They find other ways to win the game, other than using the refs. Maybe this makes them better in the playoffs when they do not get FTs as often because of the looser officiating, so they find other ways to score.

I have seen more bad shots because a player tries to get fouled and get bailed out. Great teams just try to take the best shot and do not worry about getting to the line. If they get fouled after a good shot, the chances are they get the basket and a foul and that is much better.
Who knows the reason why these teams are still so successful when they suck so much at the line. Can they win by 1-3 pts more if they shoot 5% better? Yes, that is a fact. If they shoot 30 FTs and hit 5% more, that means they score 1.5 pts a game more. What does that do? It turns those 1 pt losses into OT or 1 pt wins.

But when you are winning by 9 a game, it really does not matter in the long run.

[ALVAREZ6]

Do you know for a fact that they don't shoot 100 FT/day?
Exactly, I'm glad someone brought it up.

If you are shooting at least 100 FT's per day, I don't understand how you still can't make at least 75% in games. I mean, Rasho doesn't even make 1 out of every 2...

[Jimcs50]

Exactly, I'm glad someone brought it up.

If you are shooting at least 100 FT's per day, I don't understand how you still can't make at least 75% in games. I mean, Rasho doesn't even make 1 out of every 2...

I made 10 in a row yesterday and missed 1, then made 12 straight playing with my son and his best friend. And I suck....so if I can do it, Rasho should be able to at least make 65%.

Of course, I was not standing in front of 300 fans waving balloons and screaming at me, and I was not playing in front of another 16,000 fans and millions more on television. And I was not running up and down a basketball court for 10-12 mins at a time with 220-250lb men banging on my arms and body the whole time to the point that I am mentally and physically exhausted....other than that, it is just the same.

:angel

[ALVAREZ6]

I made 10 in a row yesterday and missed 1, then made 12 straight playing with my son and his best friend. And I suck....so if I can do it, Rasho should be able to at least make 65%.

Of course, I was not standing in front of 300 fans waving balloons and screaming at me, and I was not playing in front of another 16,000 fans and millions more on television. And I was not running up and down a basketball court for 10-12 mins at a time with 220-250lb men banging on my arms and body the whole time to the point that I am mentally and physically exhausted....other than that, it is just the same.

:angel
They should be used to pressure.

Jim, I could understand this whole "playing in front of thousands of fans" thing only if it was me or you, or any other person...But how many games has Rasho played in front of all these people, or any other Spur? Don't you think they should be used to it? I mean, 82 games in 1 season, not including playoffs, and how long has Duncan been in the league...total up his games...and he also played at Wake Forest...the dude is used to playing in front of people!!!!! Don't tell me that in 2005, the fans are going to make him grow a vagina in front of everyone.

[cherylsteele]

Losses
1. Seattle by 21. Free throws were not a factor.
2. Toronoto by 5. At 76.5%, we make 23 free throws (actually made 21). Add 2 points.
3. Memphis by 3. At 76.5%, we make 17 or 18 rather than 16. Not enough to change the actual results but it might have changed the way the game was played down the stretch. **
4. Seattle by 6. We shot 75.8%. No change.
5. Houston by 1. We shot 88%.
6. Orlando. Yes, free throws definitely made a difference. *
7. Sacto by 5. At 76.5%, we make 13 or 14 rather than 9. May have changed. **
8. Utah by 1. At 76.5%, we get to add 1 point. Another maybe. **
9. Houston by 6. At 76.5%, we make 20 rather than 17.
10. Portland by 8. We shot over 80%. Free throws not a factor.
11. Washington by 8. We only shot 13 free throws. Not a factor.
12. Miami by 4. We shot over 80%. Not a factor.
13. Memphis by 2. We shot over 76.5%.
14. Phoenix by 6. We shot 75%. No change if we shoot 76.5%.
15. Denver by 3. We shot 76.2%. No change if we shoot 76.5%.
16. Detroit by 10. We shot over 77%.
17. NY by 13. FTs not important here.
18. Indiana by 7. We shot over 80%.
19. Denver by 18.
20. Dallas by a bunch.
21. Utah by 2. We shot 75%. Another one or two would have helped. **
22. Memphis by 2. We shot 100%. Can't improve on that.
23. Minny by 22.

A single * denotes a game where we would have won. A double ** denotes a game where the outcome may have changed at the end because of the FT situation. I think that there is 1 * and 4 **. You can't expect to win all that you might have so that's why I said 61-63 games ... it could have been 64 or 60.

I don't mean to downplay the importance of free throws. I just object to sweeping exaggerations like we would have won 70 games if we could shoot free throws. Curiously enough, we averaged almost 74% FT shooting in our losses and 71.8% FT shooting in our wins.


There are several here where if there FT% was 3-4 better we could have won the game.

Those games we lost by 5-6 points....1-2 extra points may have changed the COMPLEXION of the game and the outcome would have been much different. I would change the way another team plays us.....another coach would say don't foul him....he will still hurt us....there is a reason teams use Hack-A-Shaq.

72.4% from the line MUST improve.....for high priced professionals who do this for a living...this stinks.......they are FREE THROWS for a reason...they are freebies.....you miss them they can and many times will come back to bite you in the end.

It would be like Tiger Woods missing a 1' putt
It is like a FG kicker missing an extra point or a "chip shot"
Or a fielder missing an easy pop fly.
You would deem these unacceptable......why not free throws.

[Jimcs50]

It would be like Tiger Woods missing a 1' putt
It is like a FG kicker missing an extra point or a "chip shot"
Or a fielder missing an easy pop fly.
You would deem these unacceptable......why not free throws.

Not near the same.

Tiger never misses 1 ft putts.

FG kickers make extra points 98% of the time

Fielders make routine catches 99% of the time


The best FT shooters in history made 90%.

As I said, if you have 30 FTs a game, it only takes 1.5 pts off the score if you shoot 70% instead of 75% as a team...that really never matters except a couple of games a year...not worth all the fret, really.

I would rather have them get that extra 2 O rebs/game or that extra steal, or have 2 less turnovers,,,that would make the difference of 3 pts at least.

[twincam]

Freethrows, DO matter!
PERIOD!

[cherylsteele]

[QUOTE=Jimcs50]
Fielders make routine catches 99% of the time


The best FT shooters in history made 90%.

As I said, if you have 30 FTs a game, it only takes 1.5 pts off the score if you shoot 70% instead of 75% as a team...that really never matters except a couple of games a year...not worth all the fret, really.

[\QUOTE]

So you are saying 75% is a good average for a pro player who does this for a living......you are being way to easy......getting an extra rebound is harder than a FREE THROW......a rebound depends on other player and where they are on the court......a free throw is jus that...FREE....it is just you the ball and the basket.....no one guarding you, etc.....when general avid playground player can hit a majority of those shots...why can't a professional

FG kickers have 10 or so big 300 guys coming after him and they hit extra points 98% with all that pressure.

Tiger hit his short puts 99% no one covering him....why is it so hard for an NBA player to make 80%?

[twincam]

I honestly believe that when they shoot a free throw, they spend TOO much time CONCENTRATING when they shouldn't be.
Free throw shooting is almost like an automatic jump shot. You see, when you're playing a game and given the ball you'll shoot without thinking.
If you're at the freethrow line, you give yourself TOO much time to CONCENTRATE with NO pressure...then "BRICK"!!!!
Freethrow shooting should NOT involve TIME to shoot a shot. Once you get the ball, just shoot it as if you're shooting a jump shot (without thinking). It's to simply feel your shot.
Do you guys/gals understand what I'm saying?

I'm not one to brag, but when playing basketball games, I'm considered a pure shooter...once I get the ball I simply shoot it without thinking and a high percentage of them go in. I used that same style when I shoot free throws, I don't concentrate or think about it, I just shoot it and it goes in. People would ask me how I make jumpers, etc....and I tell them, DON'T think about it. When you feel it you feel it.
Too much thinking actually distracts you. I've learned that growing up playing some
b-ball.

It's just that simple.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not a God in basketball, but I do have a good shot and people ask for advise on shooting and I just tell them "DO NOT THINK ABOUT THE SHOT", find your "COMFORT ZONE" and it'll all take care of it's self.

[cherylsteele]

I honestly believe that when they shoot a free throw, they spend TOO much time CONCENTRATING when they shouldn't be.
Free throw shooting is almost like an automatic jump shot. You see, when you're playing a game and given the ball you'll shoot without thinking.
If you're at the freethrow line, you give yourself TOO much time to CONCENTRATE with NO pressure...then "BRICK"!!!!
Freethrow shooting should NOT involve TIME to shoot a shot. Once you get the ball, just shoot it as if you're shooting a jump shot (without thinking). It's to simply feel your shot.
Do you guys/gals understand what I'm saying?

.

I think you are over-simplifiying it too much.....you need to concentrate at least some.....but you are right thinking too much about it can ruin shooting rythym.