draft87
12-23-2009, 03:54 AM
Another long thread. There's a lot of info and a lot of commentary. If you're big on brevity then this thread is not for you. You can skip it-no hard feelings.
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The general feeling among even the most optimistic of Spurs fans is that we're way out of the Western Conference Elite.
There was a nice thread started about us being just a couple games out of the loss column for 2nd place in the West. I liked the thread because it took a statistic and realistically examined it's significance. (an example of UNrealistically interpreting a statistic is when someone wrote that silly thread about Keith Bogans not being able to hit a shot---the thread came after he made 0 field goals and had 0 points BUT they ignored that Bogans had also attempted 0 shots AND had just come off three games of 3-5, 3-4, 2-5 FG shooting) I also liked it because SpursTalk is rarely in the presence of a "glass half-full" thread. Yes, this season is frustrating. Yes, we are not yet the Western Powerhouse we expected to be immediately. Yes, the Mavs are 2nd in the West at 18-8(I think that's what it was at the time) and YES, we are 13-10. NO, we are not hopeless. We're just a couple games behind 2nd place; and while that doesn't mean we're even close to #1, it does mean that we have a chance to be right there with the toughest teams in the West.
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Let's take a look at the West as of the Lakers' win over OKC(assuming the league does not overturn the Rockets' win over Dallas)
Currently:
1. 23-4(.852)-Lakers
2. 20-9(.690)-Mavs
3. 19-9(.679)-Nuggets
4. 18-10(.643)-Suns
5. 17-11(.607)-Rockets
6. 18-12(.600)-Blazers
7. 15-10(.600)-Spurs
8. 16-12(.571)-Jazz
We're in 7th place but just one game behind 2nd place Dallas(total 3GB) in the loss column. Sprinkle in a 5 game winning streak and a loss or two by at least one of the five teams ahead of us and suddenly we're climbing the standings.
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A lot of fans are super frustrated at the lack of consistency in Spurs performances. We never know what side of the Spurs we'll see in what game, or even what quarter. Will we be a running small-ball team filling the box score? Will we be the calculated half court team with a disconnected post-up/pick N roll system giving up turnovers left and right? Will we be RJs drive-and-create team? Is Tony score-first or pass-first?
There are so many questions and we seem so far from answering even two of them. Most of us want to know if we should brace ourselves for failure or if we should get ready to throw a homecoming for Larry O'Brien. I strongly suggest doing neither. Take it one game at a time, if you can. I know that's how the smartest, happiest fans do it. I know that's how the team, any team does it. Well, the 2009 Cavs didn't do it like that and look what happened to them! All I'm saying is that if we're at the top we shouldn't celebrate and if we're at the bottom we shouldn't grieve. All we can do as fans is cheer for our team and be aware of what our team is facing. We can prevent the emotional breakdowns, the knee-jerk reactions, the disappointment after premature celebrations, if we take a look at the reality of the league the Spurs play against.
*****************************
Can the Spurs use the remaining 57 games to get them to elite status in the conference and entire league? Yes. Here's a look at what can happen in just one Spurs game and one night in the NBA.
Of course we hope the Spurs beat the Blazers. So the standings will reflect a Spurs win and a Blazers loss. And today since we are trying to turn over a new leaf we're gonna complete the scenario as if Denver loses to Atlanta, Houston loses to Orlando, and Phoenix loses to OKC-all the other teams in the West top 8 playing Wednesday night losing except we'll throw in a Utah win over Miami to balance things out(more on that in the end).
Here's what happens if:
Spurs and Jazz Win; Suns, Rockets, Blazers and Nuggets Lose
1. 23-4(.852)-Lakers
2. 20-9(.690)-Mavs
3. 19-10(.655)-Nuggets
4. 18-11(.621)-Suns
5. 16-10(.615)-Spurs
6. 17-12(.586)-Rockets
7. 17-12(.586)-Jazz
8. 18-13(.581)-Blazers
As you can see, in just one night of NBA, if we play hard and win just one game, there's a chance of climbing 1-2 slots in the 'playoff race'. (and this actually shouldn't be news to anyone, we've been down to the final second for the past two seasons...but consider that we have 57 games left, who knows what's to come!
Don't write off our championship dreams just cause you think Matt Bonner isn't Spurs-caliber on D... or that Keith Bogans is undersized and offensively challenged....or that Richard Jefferson isn't averaging 22ppg and therefore rocketing our team average to 119ppg...seriously guys-57 games. FIFTY SEVEN GAMES!
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It's not totally unrealistic that all three-Denver, Houston, and Phoenix lose. They play Atlanta, Orlando, and OKC respectively. But even if Phoenix and Denver win, as long as Houston loses and we win we climb one spot to #6. Just one win can get us up a spot. Imagine a five game winning streak paired with a loss or two from any of the five teams ahead of us and suddenly we're totally on level with the West's toughest competition.
If Denver wins, they tie with Dallas at 20-9, still places #2-#3. If Phoenix wins they go 19-10(.655)=1.5 games ahead of us. If Utah loses and we still win then spots #7 and #8 simply switch between Portland 18-13(.581) and Utah 16-13(.552).
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One final note. The Spurs have a league leading fewest-games-played at 25(tied with Miami). The next fewest is a two-way tie at 26 between New Orleans and Milwaukee. Most games is tied at 30 between Toronto and Portland. The league average is 27.6.
Let's use this as a little time capsule and check back in three games. At that point we'll see if the Spurs seem more developed into their system and identity. Considering injuries do the rotations seem motivated, is there a pace to the game, and a defensive tone? We've spent so much time figuring out if it's Coach Pop, RJ, TP, or any role player's fault that we're not in-synch yet but has it been that we just haven't played enough games?
***********************
The general feeling among even the most optimistic of Spurs fans is that we're way out of the Western Conference Elite.
There was a nice thread started about us being just a couple games out of the loss column for 2nd place in the West. I liked the thread because it took a statistic and realistically examined it's significance. (an example of UNrealistically interpreting a statistic is when someone wrote that silly thread about Keith Bogans not being able to hit a shot---the thread came after he made 0 field goals and had 0 points BUT they ignored that Bogans had also attempted 0 shots AND had just come off three games of 3-5, 3-4, 2-5 FG shooting) I also liked it because SpursTalk is rarely in the presence of a "glass half-full" thread. Yes, this season is frustrating. Yes, we are not yet the Western Powerhouse we expected to be immediately. Yes, the Mavs are 2nd in the West at 18-8(I think that's what it was at the time) and YES, we are 13-10. NO, we are not hopeless. We're just a couple games behind 2nd place; and while that doesn't mean we're even close to #1, it does mean that we have a chance to be right there with the toughest teams in the West.
*****************************
Let's take a look at the West as of the Lakers' win over OKC(assuming the league does not overturn the Rockets' win over Dallas)
Currently:
1. 23-4(.852)-Lakers
2. 20-9(.690)-Mavs
3. 19-9(.679)-Nuggets
4. 18-10(.643)-Suns
5. 17-11(.607)-Rockets
6. 18-12(.600)-Blazers
7. 15-10(.600)-Spurs
8. 16-12(.571)-Jazz
We're in 7th place but just one game behind 2nd place Dallas(total 3GB) in the loss column. Sprinkle in a 5 game winning streak and a loss or two by at least one of the five teams ahead of us and suddenly we're climbing the standings.
-------------------------------------
A lot of fans are super frustrated at the lack of consistency in Spurs performances. We never know what side of the Spurs we'll see in what game, or even what quarter. Will we be a running small-ball team filling the box score? Will we be the calculated half court team with a disconnected post-up/pick N roll system giving up turnovers left and right? Will we be RJs drive-and-create team? Is Tony score-first or pass-first?
There are so many questions and we seem so far from answering even two of them. Most of us want to know if we should brace ourselves for failure or if we should get ready to throw a homecoming for Larry O'Brien. I strongly suggest doing neither. Take it one game at a time, if you can. I know that's how the smartest, happiest fans do it. I know that's how the team, any team does it. Well, the 2009 Cavs didn't do it like that and look what happened to them! All I'm saying is that if we're at the top we shouldn't celebrate and if we're at the bottom we shouldn't grieve. All we can do as fans is cheer for our team and be aware of what our team is facing. We can prevent the emotional breakdowns, the knee-jerk reactions, the disappointment after premature celebrations, if we take a look at the reality of the league the Spurs play against.
*****************************
Can the Spurs use the remaining 57 games to get them to elite status in the conference and entire league? Yes. Here's a look at what can happen in just one Spurs game and one night in the NBA.
Of course we hope the Spurs beat the Blazers. So the standings will reflect a Spurs win and a Blazers loss. And today since we are trying to turn over a new leaf we're gonna complete the scenario as if Denver loses to Atlanta, Houston loses to Orlando, and Phoenix loses to OKC-all the other teams in the West top 8 playing Wednesday night losing except we'll throw in a Utah win over Miami to balance things out(more on that in the end).
Here's what happens if:
Spurs and Jazz Win; Suns, Rockets, Blazers and Nuggets Lose
1. 23-4(.852)-Lakers
2. 20-9(.690)-Mavs
3. 19-10(.655)-Nuggets
4. 18-11(.621)-Suns
5. 16-10(.615)-Spurs
6. 17-12(.586)-Rockets
7. 17-12(.586)-Jazz
8. 18-13(.581)-Blazers
As you can see, in just one night of NBA, if we play hard and win just one game, there's a chance of climbing 1-2 slots in the 'playoff race'. (and this actually shouldn't be news to anyone, we've been down to the final second for the past two seasons...but consider that we have 57 games left, who knows what's to come!
Don't write off our championship dreams just cause you think Matt Bonner isn't Spurs-caliber on D... or that Keith Bogans is undersized and offensively challenged....or that Richard Jefferson isn't averaging 22ppg and therefore rocketing our team average to 119ppg...seriously guys-57 games. FIFTY SEVEN GAMES!
------------------------
It's not totally unrealistic that all three-Denver, Houston, and Phoenix lose. They play Atlanta, Orlando, and OKC respectively. But even if Phoenix and Denver win, as long as Houston loses and we win we climb one spot to #6. Just one win can get us up a spot. Imagine a five game winning streak paired with a loss or two from any of the five teams ahead of us and suddenly we're totally on level with the West's toughest competition.
If Denver wins, they tie with Dallas at 20-9, still places #2-#3. If Phoenix wins they go 19-10(.655)=1.5 games ahead of us. If Utah loses and we still win then spots #7 and #8 simply switch between Portland 18-13(.581) and Utah 16-13(.552).
-------------
One final note. The Spurs have a league leading fewest-games-played at 25(tied with Miami). The next fewest is a two-way tie at 26 between New Orleans and Milwaukee. Most games is tied at 30 between Toronto and Portland. The league average is 27.6.
Let's use this as a little time capsule and check back in three games. At that point we'll see if the Spurs seem more developed into their system and identity. Considering injuries do the rotations seem motivated, is there a pace to the game, and a defensive tone? We've spent so much time figuring out if it's Coach Pop, RJ, TP, or any role player's fault that we're not in-synch yet but has it been that we just haven't played enough games?