The problem vs. playoff teams..

[HarlemHeat37]

So looking at the stats, the Spurs stack up with all the top teams statistically..in overall efficiency on both sides, we're 6th in the NBA..trailing Cleveland, Boston, LA, Dallas and Atlanta..just ahead of Portland, Denver and Orlando..

In all of the other stats, it would appear that the Spurs are fine as well..the stats don't show an elite team, but they show a team that should be on the same tier as teams like Denver and Dallas, not a 15-11 team that loses to Portland w/o their best player and half their team..

The struggles are glaring when you ignore the overall stats and simply look at stats vs. playoff teams..this has now been a trend in every year since our last title..

2009-2010 overall efficiency difference: +12.1..
vs. playoff teams: -0.6..

Now I looked at a few stats that I believed were the problems vs. playoff teams, but it turned out that they weren't really the problems with the team..I looked at free throws and turnovers..I looked at the basic stats, and nothing really stood out..same with the advanced metrics..

Then I looked at the backcourt stats, and there's a huge problem..it's obvious to everybody that Parker and Ginobili have struggled, but I don't think people realize how badly we need them, as strange as that might be(that people don't realize)..

The Spurs backcourt(Parker, Ginobili, Mason, Hill, Bogans) has had a higher efficiency rating than the opponent only 10 times this season..the Spurs record when this happens?..yup, 10-0..the opposing backcourt has been more efficient 16 times, and the Spurs record is 5-11 in those games..

Our backcourt has only won 3 out of 14 games in the efficiency battle vs. playoff teams in either conference..those 3 efficiency wins came against East playoff garbage vs. Charlotte, Milwaukee, Toronto..

So our backcourt has been outplayed in EVERY game vs. teams that we should be competing with..Portlandx2, Utahx3, Phoenix, Denver, Boston, Houston, Dallasx2..

the Spurs have played vs. 12 teams that are over .500, and the backcourt is 0-12 in the efficiency battle..in these games, the Spurs had 3 double-digit losses..not a coincidence, those were the 3 worst efficiency games for our backcourt..-34 @ Utah in a 14 point loss, -29 @ Portland in a 12 point loss, and -22 @ Phoenix in a 12 point loss..

Out of those 12 games, our frontcourt won 8 out of the 12 matchups..

The Spurs frontcourt ranks #3 in the NBA in efficiency in overall differential(both D and O), only behind Cleveland and Boston..just ahead of Dallas and LA..our frontcourt is #5 in the NBA in overall efficiency vs. .500+ teams..

Our backcourt ranks #17 in the NBA in overall efficiency..our backcourt is #28 in the NBA in overall efficiency vs. .500+ teams:wow:wow:wow

the Spurs have not lost ONE game where our backcourt was more efficient than the other team..usually this would make sense if you had a poor backcourt, but we're supposed to have one of the best backcourts in the NBA..we're supposed to have a top 3 PG, Manu Ginobili, an up and coming guy in George Hill, and a sharpshooter coming off his best NBA season..

[TIMMYD!]

So, it's Manu's and Tony's fault. Mostly of course.

[Spursfan 87]

Keith Bogans is averaging 3ppg in 10 starts against .500 or better teams, and if you take out the dallas game which he scored 13, he is only averaging 1.6 ppg against .500 teams. He should not start he's not Bruce Bowen. Mason or Manu should start

[wijayas]

So looking at the stats, the Spurs stack up with all the top teams statistically..in overall efficiency on both sides, we're 6th in the NBA..trailing Cleveland, Boston, LA, Dallas and Atlanta..just ahead of Portland, Denver and Orlando..

In all of the other stats, it would appear that the Spurs are fine as well..the stats don't show an elite team, but they show a team that should be on the same tier as teams like Denver and Dallas, not a 15-11 team that loses to Portland w/o their best player and half their team..

The struggles are glaring when you ignore the overall stats and simply look at stats vs. playoff teams..this has now been a trend in every year since our last title..

2009-2010 overall efficiency difference: +12.1..
vs. playoff teams: -0.6..

Now I looked at a few stats that I believed were the problems vs. playoff teams, but it turned out that they weren't really the problems with the team..I looked at free throws and turnovers..I looked at the basic stats, and nothing really stood out..same with the advanced metrics..

Then I looked at the backcourt stats, and there's a huge problem..it's obvious to everybody that Parker and Ginobili have struggled, but I don't think people realize how badly we need them, as strange as that might be(that people don't realize)..

The Spurs backcourt(Parker, Ginobili, Mason, Hill, Bogans) has had a higher efficiency rating than the opponent only 10 times this season..the Spurs record when this happens?..yup, 10-0..the opposing backcourt has been more efficient 16 times, and the Spurs record is 5-11 in those games..

Our backcourt has only won 3 out of 14 games in the efficiency battle vs. playoff teams in either conference..those 3 efficiency wins came against East playoff garbage vs. Charlotte, Milwaukee, Toronto..

So our backcourt has been outplayed in EVERY game vs. teams that we should be competing with..Portlandx2, Utahx3, Phoenix, Denver, Boston, Houston, Dallasx2..

the Spurs have played vs. 12 teams that are over .500, and the backcourt is 0-12 in the efficiency battle..in these games, the Spurs had 3 double-digit losses..not a coincidence, those were the 3 worst efficiency games for our backcourt..-34 @ Utah in a 14 point loss, -29 @ Portland in a 12 point loss, and -22 @ Phoenix in a 12 point loss..

Out of those 12 games, our frontcourt won 8 out of the 12 matchups..

The Spurs frontcourt ranks #3 in the NBA in efficiency in overall differential(both D and O), only behind Cleveland and Boston..just ahead of Dallas and LA..our frontcourt is #5 in the NBA in overall efficiency vs. .500+ teams..

Our backcourt ranks #17 in the NBA in overall efficiency..our backcourt is #28 in the NBA in overall efficiency vs. .500+ teams:wow:wow:wow

the Spurs have not lost ONE game where our backcourt was more efficient than the other team..usually this would make sense if you had a poor backcourt, but we're supposed to have one of the best backcourts in the NBA..we're supposed to have a top 3 PG, Manu Ginobili, an up and coming guy in George Hill, and a sharpshooter coming off his best NBA season..

Thanks for taking the time to run the numbers. I have long suspected TP and Manu to be below par. This is the validation. :toast :toast :toast

[DPG21920]

Yeah, this is something that many of us have noticed but not quantified like this, nice job. It is pretty clear the problem and solution. Manu/TP need to elevate their play.

[Spursmania]

Nice job Harlem. Great read. Appreciate the effort.:tu

[anonoftheinternets]

damn .. you have really outdone yourself. Awesome job. Best post of the year (i know its going to be next year in 4 days though, but still awesome post.)

[Amuseddaysleeper]

Harlem, your best post yet.

All season I was worried about our lack of frontcourt size but it's interesting to see it's the backcourt with the most issues.

[Chieflion]

The backcourt has been killing us, and it was painfuly obvious for people who watched the games. The stats just proved it.

[Josepatches_]

.we're supposed to have a top 3 PG.....


:rolleyes

Maybe if you are talking of the top3 PG in Texas

[alchemist]

unforced turnovers and key rebounds have been the biggest issue against teams over .500% (considering how many new faces the team has had)

[silverblackfan]

Nice post. It validates a few things that we suspected. Hopefully, with Tony and Manu now healthy, we will see this trend change.
At least tonight, Tony was showing a bit of defensive energy, which is critical.

[The Truth #6]

Excellent work. Yes, as others have said, this confirms what many have thought.

A lot of the blame was going towards RJ, or the new players needing time to gel, and other such arguments but this seems to confirm that our problem is that only 1 of our Big 3 are having a good season.

[blkroadrunners]

Good read, especially considering going into this season, the Spurs are one of the deeper teams at the guard position. As poor as Manu has been playing today compared to his past years, he's still 5th for SGs in PER (if you count out Kevin Martin) mainly b/c of his high TS%. Parker on the other hand, has really been playing just average this year instead of a top 3-5 PG.

[TJastal]

This isn't surprising. Bogans vs any .500 team or better is basically a
no-show on offense and below average on defense. His complete lack of production probably skews the result way more than TP or Manu having off years.

Thanks for posting this Harlemheat. Now all the babies crying about Jefferson and McDyess can go suck eggs. :lol

[Mark in Austin]

Not surprising considering the injuries. Very nice research though - it's good confirmation of what some of us suspected watching the games. :tu

[Agloco]

So looking at the stats, the Spurs stack up with all the top teams statistically..in overall efficiency on both sides, we're 6th in the NBA..trailing Cleveland, Boston, LA, Dallas and Atlanta..just ahead of Portland, Denver and Orlando..

In all of the other stats, it would appear that the Spurs are fine as well..the stats don't show an elite team, but they show a team that should be on the same tier as teams like Denver and Dallas, not a 15-11 team that loses to Portland w/o their best player and half their team..



I agree with your post in general, but I wanted to home in on this point. If you look at things from a "glass is half full" perspective, the Spurs are a few shots from being 18-8 or even 19-7 ,right on par with Dallas and Denver. I chalk up the close losses to OKC, @Utah and @Dallas to lack of time together on the court. There are other games you could make the same argument for, but you can't assume that the Spurs will win every close game.

It's not all doom and gloom, but the 2-10 record against winning teams is something to be quite nervous about at this juncture.

Great analysis on the frontcourt vs backcourt issues. I long suspected that this was the case.

[quentin_compson]

Nice work, HarlemHeat37. :tu

I guess most would have expected our FC to outperform our BC so far, because even though Dice has had a couple of games in which he more or less seemed to disappear, Duncan has been playing at MVP-level, and Bonner and Blair have been decent or more than that as well.

But I wouldn't have thought that our BC has consistently been outplayed by the better teams in the league. Let's hope Tony finds a way to stay aggressive and still successful at getting others involved.

[BillMc]

Very nice writeup!!!

I would hope, in a strange way, that this is a good sigh. That Manu and Tony are likely to improve as the season wears on. They will return to the norm of their present standard deviation.

[HarlemHeat37]

2 games in a row where the backcourt is more efficient than the other team's backcourt, another 2 wins for the Spurs..

[quentin_compson]

Tony and Manu taking over at the end was great, but give credit to Mason Jr. and Hill as well. They both had good games (even though Roger's three-point shot was off).

[rascal]

Spurs are a playoff team not a championship this year.

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

Bottom line is that players other than Duncan need to step up. Manu's had only 1 or 2 "Manu" type of games, and Parker's game is nowhere close to his top form. The newest member of the Big 4 needs to start earning his stripes too.

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

Nice post, btw, HH. :tu

[kace]

indeed, talking about frontcourt and backcourt is not very specific.

if you look at the net production by position, you'llsee the center position being by very far the best (+8.2 PER), the PG one the second best (+1.5), the SG and SF more or less at 0 and the PF clearly the weakest for the spurs (-4.3).

so, having the Center (with Tim) and the PG (with TP) being our two best positions, even with TP having many so so games, isn't new.

What is new is the huge difference between the two. Last year the center position was at +5.3 and the PG one at +4.3, being our two best positions (and the only two being positive in net production by position).

But the worst part is the net production at SG. With manu being the man at this position, we used to have a clear advantage in net produtcion (+ 9.3 in 2006-2007/ +6.5 in 2007-2008). even if manu's game is really made for PER (on the contrary of TP's one), they are very impressive numbers for the SG position.

now, for the two last years, we're at 0 for the SG. with three dominant positions, we were good. with only two (supposing tony will be at his usual level soon), it's harder. The old Manu and Bowen defending the best SG are really two things that hurt us at the net production at SG.

[elbamba]

I think that the back court has been injured for most of this season and that tony and Manu are playing through it. Tony does not look as fast as he has in the past and I think that has something to do with his ankle.

I was worried a week ago but when you look at the overall records only LA and Boston look great this year. Everyone else looks beatable. If the Spurs can build some momentum playing scrubs the next couple of weeks hopefully this will be enough to get everyone rolling.

I love seeing Dice off the bench, he looks way better playing with Manu and his jumpshot has been smooth as silk since the change. Mason could not hit a shot the first three weeks and now he looks like a stud, ditto for Bogans who has impressed me after a few slow weeks.

Overall this team is about where they should be. The need to get Jefferson a little more involved but I can't argue with how well Tim and Blair have played. We look stronger and faster than last year. Considering all the changes we made, it is pretty good that we are only off one game from last year. And once this team gels I think they will come away with 56 wins and the division.

[DaBears]

TP defense's game is wack (the guy plays no defense just like most of Europe, not all but most)... Tp cant even stop the likes of Steve Black from Portland(excuse if name is incorrect). Ginoobli's game is is completely broken( the guy has always turned over the ball, but made up for it on the other end or somewhere else down the road during the game but not this yr.. I have seen him make terrible passes no where near his intended teammates.. And his jumper has lost the mark as well.. I think we should really get use to the idea that the Manu of old is gone and this shadow of this once "X-FACTOR named GINOBLI" is no more.. All seeason long i have seen the SPURS backcourt get beat, if you look at it this way and think back whens the last time you remember the opponets frontcourt beating us.. I can only think of "1" team this year and it was vs UTAH..(Boozer had a hell of a game)... So i would have to agree back court is our weak link..