Interesting stat: how the Spurs stack up in margin of defeat

[mazerrackham]

Here's something that I found a little bit interesting, and that I think gives the Spurs a good outlook on the rest of the season. I did some digging into average losses among some of the top teams in the league. Looking at the 8 teams with the highest average margin of victory, I decided to single out each of these teams' losses and find what the average margin of defeat in only losses is. These are the results (keep in mind that I did these calculations on my computer calculator so there could be a mistake somewhere):

14.67 - Lakers (6 losses) worst 26
9.91 - Atlanta (11 losses) worst 20 (twice)
10.25 - Orlando (8 losses) worst 28
8.7 - Mavericks (10 losses) worst 16 (twice)
8.5 - Denver (12 losses) worst 25
7.5 - Cleveland (8 losses) worst 17
7.36 - Spurs (11 losses) worst 14
7.125 - Boston (8 losses) worst 18

The way I interpret this data is it gives you something to gauge how a team responds when things aren't going well. Even average teams, if they click on all cylinders, can beat a contender on a single night just because they happen to play really well that night. I believe it's how a team does when it faces a bad night that will determine their consistency in a 7 game series. So lets look at the numbers. The Lakers, in their losses, have shown up the least, with an average defeat margin of 14.67. Their worst night, they were blown out by 26 by Denver. They didn't even compete in that game. Boston tops the list with only an average defeat margin of 7.125 because of several close defeats, but the Spurs are right there with only 7.36 as their margin of defeat through 11 losses. a 7 point loss is relatively close in the NBA, as that's essentially a 3 possession game, and we all know that there are probably 3 foul calls that could go either way in any given game. Also, out of everyone on this list, the Spurs worst loss of the season is by the least number of points, only 14.

Lets look a little bit further at the Spurs 3 worst losses: A loss by 14 to Utah, and losses by 12 to Portland and Phoenix. Utah is the only loss this year where the Spurs really didn't show up, and Utah had a comfortable 10 point cushion virtually the whole way. Against Portland, we pulled to within 3 points with 3 minutes left in the game before giving up. And in Phoenix, we came all the way back from being double digits down to making it a 1 point game early in the 4th quarter. It's encouraging to me that there's only been one game where the Spurs have not even had a chance in the 4th quarter. If, on the Spurs worst nights, they are giving themselves a chance to have a good 4th quarter to win the game, the glass is half full in my opinion. Anyway, that's my two cents.

[HarlemHeat37]

We actually stack up with the best teams in the NBA in almost every stat, some of them are very telling advanced stats that usually show a good correlation to winning and competing at a high level..

The only thing that hasn't favored the Spurs has been the record vs. .500 teams, which is a big deal IMO..as I pointed out in a previous thread, the play of Manu and Tony has had a huge part in this..does anybody believe that Tony and Manu won't play A LOT better, like they're supposed to, as the season goes on and they become accustomed to the playing style of the new players?(obviously barring injury)..

the Spurs are in good shape IMO..if we played the top teams right now in a 7-game series, we would lose..but the progress is good and I'd say it's starting to shape up to where we want it..

Last year's Spurs team had more wins, but those wins weren't nearly as impressive, even though there were more wins against the .500 teams..the stats favor this team a lot better than last year's team..

[mazerrackham]

We actually stack up with the best teams in the NBA in almost every stat, some of them are very telling advanced stats that usually show a good correlation to winning and competing at a high level..

The only thing that hasn't favored the Spurs has been the record vs. .500 teams, which is a big deal IMO..as I pointed out in a previous thread, the play of Manu and Tony has had a huge part in this..does anybody believe that Tony and Manu won't play A LOT better, like they're supposed to, as the season goes on and they become accustomed to the playing style of the new players?(obviously barring injury)..

the Spurs are in good shape IMO..if we played the top teams right now in a 7-game series, we would lose..but the progress is good and I'd say it's starting to shape up to where we want it..

Last year's Spurs team had more wins, but those wins weren't nearly as impressive, even though there were more wins against the .500 teams..the stats favor this team a lot better than last year's team..

I agree we stack up well, I just thought this was something interesting to look at that I don't think I've ever seen somebody calculate before.

[HarlemHeat37]

Ya that's very good work..thanks for the work..it's encouraging for the team's outlook..

[Spursmania]

Interesting take, and I think relevant to a certain degree.

[spursfaninla]

hollinger?

for real, this is half of his system, margin of victory/losses.

anyway, your focus is different, but does not consider that the sample size is pretty small still. esp. with the lakers having only lost 6 games, for instance. that will balance out over another 15 losses.

[mazerrackham]

hollinger?

for real, this is half of his system, margin of victory/losses.

anyway, your focus is different, but does not consider that the sample size is pretty small still. esp. with the lakers having only lost 6 games, for instance. that will balance out over another 15 losses.

Of course, but that's why I put the number of losses in parenthesis, so you could make a mental note, I just thought it was something interesting to look at. My main point is that we haven't been blown out.

[draft87]

Here's something that I found a little bit interesting, and that I think gives the Spurs a good outlook on the rest of the season. I did some digging into average losses among some of the top teams in the league. Looking at the 8 teams with the highest average margin of victory, I decided to single out each of these teams' losses and find what the average margin of defeat in only losses is. These are the results (keep in mind that I did these calculations on my computer calculator so there could be a mistake somewhere):

14.67 - Lakers (6 losses) worst 26
9.91 - Atlanta (11 losses) worst 20 (twice)
10.25 - Orlando (8 losses) worst 28
8.7 - Mavericks (10 losses) worst 16 (twice)
8.5 - Denver (12 losses) worst 25
7.5 - Cleveland (8 losses) worst 17
7.36 - Spurs (11 losses) worst 14
7.125 - Boston (8 losses) worst 18

The way I interpret this data is it gives you something to gauge how a team responds when things aren't going well. Even average teams, if they click on all cylinders, can beat a contender on a single night just because they happen to play really well that night. I believe it's how a team does when it faces a bad night that will determine their consistency in a 7 game series. So lets look at the numbers. The Lakers, in their losses, have shown up the least, with an average defeat margin of 14.67. Their worst night, they were blown out by 26 by Denver. They didn't even compete in that game. Boston tops the list with only an average defeat margin of 7.125 because of several close defeats, but the Spurs are right there with only 7.36 as their margin of defeat through 11 losses. a 7 point loss is relatively close in the NBA, as that's essentially a 3 possession game, and we all know that there are probably 3 foul calls that could go either way in any given game. Also, out of everyone on this list, the Spurs worst loss of the season is by the least number of points, only 14.

Lets look a little bit further at the Spurs 3 worst losses: A loss by 14 to Utah, and losses by 12 to Portland and Phoenix. Utah is the only loss this year where the Spurs really didn't show up, and Utah had a comfortable 10 point cushion virtually the whole way. Against Portland, we pulled to within 3 points with 3 minutes left in the game before giving up. And in Phoenix, we came all the way back from being double digits down to making it a 1 point game early in the 4th quarter. It's encouraging to me that there's only been one game where the Spurs have not even had a chance in the 4th quarter. If, on the Spurs worst nights, they are giving themselves a chance to have a good 4th quarter to win the game, the glass is half full in my opinion. Anyway, that's my two cents.


We actually stack up with the best teams in the NBA in almost every stat, some of them are very telling advanced stats that usually show a good correlation to winning and competing at a high level..

The only thing that hasn't favored the Spurs has been the record vs. .500 teams, which is a big deal IMO..as I pointed out in a previous thread, the play of Manu and Tony has had a huge part in this..does anybody believe that Tony and Manu won't play A LOT better, like they're supposed to, as the season goes on and they become accustomed to the playing style of the new players?(obviously barring injury)..

the Spurs are in good shape IMO..if we played the top teams right now in a 7-game series, we would lose..but the progress is good and I'd say it's starting to shape up to where we want it..

Last year's Spurs team had more wins, but those wins weren't nearly as impressive, even though there were more wins against the .500 teams..the stats favor this team a lot better than last year's team..


hollinger?

for real, this is half of his system, margin of victory/losses.

anyway, your focus is different, but does not consider that the sample size is pretty small still. esp. with the lakers having only lost 6 games, for instance. that will balance out over another 15 losses.



Nice work. I applaud the effort, these things take time to look up and then calculate. I was actually going to do this but my thread about the margin of victory took too long so I called it a day before I did the margin of defeat. ...so thanks for doing all the work :hat

I also appreciate that you included an interpretation of the data. I love it when the board has opinions and observations rooted in fact or tangible concepts. The rush of gut-reaction "The Official Where's Tony Parker's Heart Thread" really are futile. Who's gonna be able to offer a real answer to that? Tony Parker? Eva Longoria? I'm sure Gregg Popovich, even Tony Parker himself was asking that question. And I bet his slump was more a matter of comfort than a matter of desire.

All that being said, considering the Spurs margin of victory and margin of defeat I see only forward progress in the future. Like HarlemHeat said,

a) does anybody with a brain actually think Tony/Manu won't play better as the year goes on?

b) the data we've discussed is part of the method to Hollinger's rankings. it's no surprise that after the Miami victory we are currently #3.

[lennyalderette]

thanks for the research, good info!

[BillMc]

Here's something that I found a little bit interesting, and that I think gives the Spurs a good outlook on the rest of the season. I did some digging into average losses among some of the top teams in the league. Looking at the 8 teams with the highest average margin of victory, I decided to single out each of these teams' losses and find what the average margin of defeat in only losses is. These are the results (keep in mind that I did these calculations on my computer calculator so there could be a mistake somewhere):

14.67 - Lakers (6 losses) worst 26
9.91 - Atlanta (11 losses) worst 20 (twice)
10.25 - Orlando (8 losses) worst 28
8.7 - Mavericks (10 losses) worst 16 (twice)
8.5 - Denver (12 losses) worst 25
7.5 - Cleveland (8 losses) worst 17
7.36 - Spurs (11 losses) worst 14
7.125 - Boston (8 losses) worst 18

The way I interpret this data is it gives you something to gauge how a team responds when things aren't going well. Even average teams, if they click on all cylinders, can beat a contender on a single night just because they happen to play really well that night. I believe it's how a team does when it faces a bad night that will determine their consistency in a 7 game series. So lets look at the numbers. The Lakers, in their losses, have shown up the least, with an average defeat margin of 14.67. Their worst night, they were blown out by 26 by Denver. They didn't even compete in that game. Boston tops the list with only an average defeat margin of 7.125 because of several close defeats, but the Spurs are right there with only 7.36 as their margin of defeat through 11 losses. a 7 point loss is relatively close in the NBA, as that's essentially a 3 possession game, and we all know that there are probably 3 foul calls that could go either way in any given game. Also, out of everyone on this list, the Spurs worst loss of the season is by the least number of points, only 14.

Lets look a little bit further at the Spurs 3 worst losses: A loss by 14 to Utah, and losses by 12 to Portland and Phoenix. Utah is the only loss this year where the Spurs really didn't show up, and Utah had a comfortable 10 point cushion virtually the whole way. Against Portland, we pulled to within 3 points with 3 minutes left in the game before giving up. And in Phoenix, we came all the way back from being double digits down to making it a 1 point game early in the 4th quarter. It's encouraging to me that there's only been one game where the Spurs have not even had a chance in the 4th quarter. If, on the Spurs worst nights, they are giving themselves a chance to have a good 4th quarter to win the game, the glass is half full in my opinion. Anyway, that's my two cents.

Thanks for doing all that work!:toast:toast

This is a good sign. We play tough even in defeat. The only negative spin I could possibly think on this is that means the spurs are always playing hard and won't have the mythical "extra gear" in the playoffs. However, I don't believe that. Teams that wait to "turn it on" in the playoffs more often than not, can't.

We're looking good! :toast

[Mavs<Spurs]

We actually stack up with the best teams in the NBA in almost every stat, some of them are very telling advanced stats that usually show a good correlation to winning and competing at a high level..

The only thing that hasn't favored the Spurs has been the record vs. .500 teams, which is a big deal IMO..as I pointed out in a previous thread, the play of Manu and Tony has had a huge part in this..does anybody believe that Tony and Manu won't play A LOT better, like they're supposed to, as the season goes on and they become accustomed to the playing style of the new players?(obviously barring injury)..

the Spurs are in good shape IMO..if we played the top teams right now in a 7-game series, we would lose..but the progress is good and I'd say it's starting to shape up to where we want it..

Last year's Spurs team had more wins, but those wins weren't nearly as impressive, even though there were more wins against the .500 teams..the stats favor this team a lot better than last year's team..

+1

good post

:lobt:

[all_heart]

It's all thanks to Timmy, without him those stats would have been a lot worse. Hopefully we'll continue to improve, we need to. Manu appears to be back, Tony has kicked it up a notch, Mason is knocking down shots again. We just need RJ to start attacking the basket more, with his shot going down more maybe he'll start doing just that. Between Manu, TP, and RJ (hopefully) attacking the rim often, Spurs are a deep well balanced team. :toast

[boutons_deux]

Stats are always fun, esp when you get the results you're motivated to find. :)

The only stats that count for me are:

record vs WC top 6 teams and EC top 4 teams, and

road record.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/standings?season=2010&group=conference&seasontype=2&standType=standings

"How little the Spurs lose by" also says the Spur couldn't find a way to win a close game, another measure of a solid team.