48MoH: Duncan, Trade Market Implications

[Blackjack]

Duncan, Trade Market Implications
by Timothy Varner

Yesterday I ran a piece that attempted to point out an obvious development that some have missed: Tim Duncan is playing very well this season (http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2010/01/04/tim-duncan-league-mvp/). Some want to qualify this by saying Duncan is receiving less double-teams, to which my response is “so what?” and “is he really?” Honestly, I’m not sure that assertion is true. And even if it is, it’s because teams need to stay home on Richard Jefferson (at least more so than Bruce Bowen) and Duncan is shooting more often on mid-range face ups, not the sort of shot opposing teams double. On this last point, consider that Duncan is attempting 2.7 shots per game from 10 to 15 feet (http://hoopdata.com/player.aspx?name=Tim%20Duncan), up from 2.3 the previous two seasons. His FG% from that range is currently 53%, up from 34% and 46% over his ‘08 and ‘09 numbers.

Keep reading → (http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2010/01/05/duncan-trade-market-implications/)

[urunobili]

Nocioni... :drool:

[pad300]

Actually, there are more implications than the article suggests. The author is simply suggesting adding one more mid-to-big longer term contract for our expirings. Another alternative would be moving RJ for a larger/longer contract.

Say Kirilenko ($M16.2, $M17.3) for Jefferson ($M14.2, $M15.2), Finley ($M2.5) and a 2010 first?

Or say Deng. I'm not sure the bulls are sold on his resurgence this year, and he's under contract until 2014, which gimps the Bulls from going after a marquee FA this summer (Wade/Lebron/Bosh).

SAS in Deng, Hinrich, Lindsey Hunter (cut)
Chi in McGrady, Finley
HOU in Jefferson, Mason, SA 2010 1st.

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=yk76suu

or

SAS in Deng, Salmons, Pargo
Chi in McGrady
HOU in Jefferson, Mason, Finley, SA 2010 1st.

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=yflv6yf

Chicago takes a big shot at FA's this summer - Wade or Lebron or Bosh. They already have Noah, and Rose. Add any one of the three big FA and that's a pretty solid big 3 to build around. Note that they don't have this FA shot if they don't move Deng and either Salmons or Hinrich for expirings

Houston gets some value for McGrady. Expiring contracts (who they can further trade, or play), a first round pick, and a guy who can play (jefferson) and becomes a valuable expiring next year...

SAS particularly loves the 2nd version... Deng > Jefferson. Thomas > Finley. Pargo < Mason, but Pargo's not going to see a lot of burn as 3ed PG. With Deng, Thomas, Manu, Hairston, Hill, and Bogans all eating minutes, we can fill in for Mason...

The 1st version is tighter, Deng > Jefferson, Hinrich = Finley (yes, he's worse offensively, but quite a bit better defensively). Hunter could be released or kept as a 3ed PG. The same arguments apply about the minutes available. Also, Hinrich might be a good fit for SA. We could play 2 PG sets, with either Hinrich and Hill, which makes for a NASTY defensive backcourt (and with either Deng or Manu at the 3, the offense wouldn't be that bad), or Hinrich and Parker (Hinrich is big enough to cover 2's, and this would give Parker the freedom to look for his own shot like a 2 guard, with Hinrich playing supporting facilitator on court.)

Money gets interesting. In the Hinrich version, SAS payroll goes up $M 0.3 this year (pre-tax). In the Salmons version, it goes down $M 1.6 (pre-tax)

SAS save money net, this year, either way. Next year is dicier; it depends to much on how the roster is filled out, but the 2011 Spurs roster would stand at
Duncan, McDyess, Blair, Haislip
Deng, Hairston, Hinrich/Thomas,
Parker, Hill

For $61M (hinrich) or $58M (Thomas). Resign Manu for 2 years at $8M/year. Add Splitter $4M (from the MLE). 2 Vet Min (~$2M) makes it 75/72 $M.

Same signings next year on current path would leave us at $72M (and a need to sign one more guy to fill in for Hinrich/Thomas, likely our 2010 1st round pick).

[HarlemHeat37]

I don't see why Houston wants Jefferson with the players they already have on the wing, and it looks like they can get a much better deal for McGrady's contract according to recent reports..

[Lars]

Dont want RJ

[pad300]

Don't imagine that Houston really wants RJ. But T-mac's contract is $23 million. They are not going to get only expirings back, otherwise they would just keep T-mac... They will have to accept some filler; the question for Houston is what?

[DesignatedT]

4.It’s worth noting that San Antonio does not have Bird Rights on Roger Mason Jr. If the Spurs resign Mason this summer, it will come out of the MLE. The problem there, of course, is that the Spurs will presumably use a large chunk of the MLE on a Tiago Splitter offer, limiting their ability to resign Mason. If the Spurs trade for a contract that greatly reduces their ability to resign Ginobili and are unlikely to resign Mason Jr, they leave themselves with a long term hole at shooting guard with no obvious way to fill it.





Dont we have early bird rights on mason which would allow us to offer him up to the MLE which is around 5.5 mil and it wouldnt actually go against are actual MLE(which would be used for splitter) ofcourse assuming roger would even take 5.5/year

correct me if im wrong

[Baseline]

Hinrich would be either a million or two million times better for the Spurs than Finley currently is.

Finley is done. Hinrich is light years better then Finley. I'd take Hinrich on the Spurs in a nanosecond.

[FlAVaK]

Dont we have early bird rights on mason which would allow us to offer him up to the MLE which is around 5.5 mil and it wouldnt actually go against are actual MLE(which would be used for splitter) ofcourse assuming roger would even take 5.5/year

correct me if im wrong

I asked myself the same, found this (WIKIPEDIA):

"Larry Bird exception:
Perhaps the most well-known of the NBA's salary cap exceptions, it is so named because the Boston Celtics were the first team permitted to exceed the salary cap to re-sign one of their own players (in that case, Larry Bird). Free agents who qualify for this exception are called "qualifying veteran free agents" or "Bird Free Agents" in the CBA, and this exception falls under the auspices of the Veteran Free Agent exception. In essence, the Larry Bird exception allows teams to exceed the salary cap to re-sign their own free agents, at an amount up to the maximum salary. To qualify as a Bird free agent, a player must have played three seasons without being waived or changing teams as a free agent. This means a player can obtain "Bird rights" by playing under three one-year contracts, a single contract of at least three years, or any combination thereof. It also means that when a player is traded, his Bird rights are traded with him, and his new team can use the Bird exception to re-sign him. Bird-exception contracts can be up to six years in length.

Early Bird exception:
This is the lesser form of the Larry Bird Exception. Free agents who qualify for this exception are called "early qualifying veteran free agents," and qualify after playing two seasons without being waived or changing teams as a free agent. Using this exception, a team can re-sign its own free agent for either 175% of his salary the previous season, or the NBA's average salary, whichever is greater. Early Bird contracts must be for at least two seasons, but can last no longer than five seasons.

Non-Bird exception:
Free Agents who qualify for this exception are called "non-qualifying free agents" in the CBA, meaning they do not qualify under either the Larry Bird Exception or the Early Bird Exception. Under this exception, teams can re-sign a player to a contract beginning at either 120% of his salary for the previous season, or 120% of the league's minimum salary, whichever amount is higher. Contracts signed under the Non-Bird exception can last up to six years."

So I guess, Mason could be signed for up to 6.615 mil ("Early Bird" -> 175 % of 3.78) without using the MLE, but not for the max ("Larry Bird")...