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View Full Version : My Problem with PER and Plus/minus



Killakobe81
01-09-2010, 01:39 AM
I am NOT a huge stat guy as a coach I believe in my instincts, gut and the eye test. I can take someone who knows NOTHING about basketball, show them last years playoffs and I bet they would say the best players in the NBA are: Lebron, Wade, kobe, Melo Pierce, Ben gordon, Ray Allen, Tim Duncan Aaron Brooks, Pau Gasol, Dirk Howard and a few others ...you dont need PER or plus/minus to tell you who they are.

Take the Spurs Mavs game. I watched this game and I don't root for either. I dislike Dallas less but Tim is my favorite player in the game. Tim had an efficient dominant low post game no one coould stop him. Dirk took a lot of shots ...missed a lot but made all the key shots, blocks rebounds or tipped loose balls to other players. I am not a PER or plus/minus guy BUT I get the argument and many people are...
Tim is the greatest PF (if he is a PF) in NBA history...BUT down the stretch Dirk was the BEST player on the court and in that game. Sure his PER will probably suck but Mavs and Spur fans know (if they are honest) it was Dirk that killed them late.
Terry, Kidd, Damp all had plays to keep them in it ...But that was a Dirk Dagger Diggler game (vintage) from Nowitzki's MVP season ...

My point is you have to watch "the game" not the stat sheet or the summary to know Dirk was the best player on the court. Because if i just look at stats or who my favorite player (bias) is I would say "Tim". Dirk is clutch much like Kobe is clutch ...Kobe also had an even more shitty game and his team lost. Where I will give him credit (little) was when the game seemed over he brought the game back ...and if i could have a team with Tim or Roy (great PER) that is great but for tonight I take Dirk. Does it mean Dirk is a better player? no he just made shots late ... but MOST NBA games are won the last 2mins and that late it's easier for Dirk to get his shots than Tim because tim depends on his guards to get him the ball down low ...

PER can NOT tell you the story of who is clutch or the full story of any game ...Dirk wa sthe best player according to my eye test and the "scoreboard"

lil_penny
01-09-2010, 01:40 AM
agreed

MiamiHeat
01-09-2010, 01:41 AM
let me guess

kobe doesn't have the greatest PER or Plus/Minus stat so you have a big problem with it

BUMP
01-09-2010, 01:43 AM
You could've just translated all those paragraphs into "I'm butthurt because Kobe needs almost 40 shots to get to 32 points while Roy needed only 11" and it would've been easier.

DAF86
01-09-2010, 01:47 AM
STFU Dirk wasn't even close to beign the best player of the Spurs-Mavs game.

dirk4mvp
01-09-2010, 01:49 AM
Besides the wall of words with the occasional enter key hit and subpar grammar, good post :tu

Killakobe81
01-09-2010, 01:50 AM
You could've just translated all those paragraphs into "I'm butthurt because Kobe needs almost 40 shots to get to 32 points while Roy needed only 11" and it would've been easier.

Nope. Read my other posts tonight Kobe<Wade<cp3<Roy ...

My point was about Dirk. Even the Mavs announcers were killing (well critiquing)Dirk. Point is PER could not tell you how well Dirk played if I was JUST watching the 4th quarter of NBA games tonight you could argue that dirk was better and more clutch than Kobe, Lebron, Wade and Tim.

The point of my post was that PER and one game conclusions are foolhardy to make judgements on players ...

BUT I base mine on the gospel of Miam heat and BRHornet so WAde and C3p are the best players in the history of basketball ... Kome he is an overrated, no talent chucker ...

lil_penny
01-09-2010, 01:55 AM
Killakobe has brought up a damn good point though.. this plus minus b.s. has gone too far.. people look at it more then the damn score sometimes lol he's not trying to bring up the whole roy kobe thing tonight.. he's just pointing out obvious facts.

DPG21920
01-09-2010, 01:55 AM
Dirk was the best player in the 4th, not the game.

BUMP
01-09-2010, 01:59 AM
I see what you're saying now.

I remember watching a Spurs game and Fab Oberto started out like 8-8 or something

While his +/- was probably amazing those were probably the most useless 16 points in NBA history

Killakobe81
01-09-2010, 02:01 AM
My point was this. If you take someone who has no rooting interest Duncan was the more dominat for MOST of THAT game ...but when plays had to be made ...it was Dirk that came up HUGE. Roy had a great PER and he made the better plays overall late no disputing that here. But in at least 6 games this year Dirk did what he did last night. Sometimes he sucked for 3 quarters others he got even better late. But I bet if you look at PER Duncan>Dirk but my eyes told me that dirk was the better player.
and portland fans can be honest Roy has had games like Dirk(tonight) where he struggled late but hit key shots or FT's ....that is the mark of a great clutch player.

lil_penny
01-09-2010, 02:04 AM
and portalnd fans can be honest Roy has had games like Dirk(tonight) where he struggled late but hit key shots or FT's ....

Not gonna argue.. the last game against the clips he didn't even show up lol

Killakobe81
01-09-2010, 02:04 AM
I see what you're saying now.

I remember watching a Spurs game and Fab Oberto started out like 8-8 or something

While his +/- was probably amazing those were probably the most useless 16 points in NBA history

Exactly though OBVIOUSLY Duncan had a great impact on the game I thought Dirk's was greater even if his PER was less.

Note: I no longer make arguments for Kobe Bryant on this site anymore. Even if I make an intelligent argument it will be viewed as biased because im a laker fan so maybe I am. I will only debate players on other teams ...Come playoff time I will do whatever I want but in the reg season with all these haters and trolls? Waste of my time ...