Hollinger's Possible Deals

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

Anyone tell me what they are? Might be some fun to see what he's come up with and watch it get torn to shreds around here. ;)

[mystargtr34]

I requested it in the Spurs forum... but could someone with ESPN Insider also post the article by Hollinger on under the radar players from yesterday (or day before)...

I think it featured Tim Duncan...

Thanks in advance.

Sorry to hijack Ruff :lol

[KidCongo]

I'm not an insider but I believe this is the article. Got it off a Cavs forum.

We're still more than a month away from the trade deadline, but as Oklahoma City showed with its recent heist of Eric Maynor from Utah, trading season is already underway.

As we head toward the Feb. 18 deadline, we'll hear lots of names and teams come up. Virtually every club in the league has some interest, whether as a buyer or a seller, in reshaping their roster.

For that reason, lots of potential trades could happen. Lots and lots and lots of them. But today, I'm going to focus on a much smaller subset of those -- the trades that have to happen.


NBA Trade Machine
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Trade Machine

In each case, a team finds itself over the luxury-tax line and heading nowhere, providing a mammoth incentive to cut money between now and Feb. 18 to get under the threshold. The Wizards, of course, are the most prominent example, thanks to the Gilbert Arenas saga and their 11-22 record. But the Hornets, Jazz and Heat all find themselves over the tax line but without any realistic hope of contending. As a result, they're not just hoping to make a deal -- they need to.

Thus, I expect most of the action to happen around those four teams on deadline day. Other swaps can and probably will happen, but there's much less urgency to them. These are the four situations I'll be watching most closely over the next month, as they'll likely be the epicenter of any trade discussions:





Washington Wizards, $8.75 million over the luxury tax

The Wizards are going nowhere fast, so it seems preposterous to think they'll fork out nearly $9 million in tax and forego another $4 million or so in distributions from the league just to win 28 games instead of 25 (presuming they'll be unsuccessful in voiding Arenas' contract before the trade deadline).

Here's where it gets tricky -- since Oklahoma City swallowed up Matt Harpring's deal in the Maynor trade, there's nobody left with the cap space to take on a big contract. The most-discussed deal for Washington would be to send Antawn Jamison to Cleveland for Zydrunas Ilgauskas' expiring contract, since that gets Washington off the hook for the last three years of Jamison's deal; I have no doubt Washington could also be persuaded to waive Ilgauskas to allow Cleveland to re-sign him.

The problem is that such a deal does nothing for the Wizards' present tax situation. As a result, there's less urgency for such a trade than there is for other possibilities. In fact, the Wizards' best chances at deals may not involve any of their big three of Jamison, Arenas and Caron Butler.

For instance, consider this deal: Orlando uses its massive trade exception from the Hedo Turkoglu trade, adding Mike Miller, Dominic McGuire and DeShawn Stevenson (with the exception) from Washington, while sending J.J. Redick to Washington and Mickael Pietrus to Memphis. The trade would shore up the Magic's shooting and also clean up next year's balance sheet a bit.

If Orlando doesn't like that one, several potential variants work. For instance, Wizards center Brendan Haywood could go to the Magic while Redick stays in Orlando ... or the Magic could add Haywood, send Redick and Anthony Johnson to Memphis and hang on to Pietrus ... or the Magic could acquire Butler instead of Miller ... or the Magic could obtain Jamison instead of Miller and send either Brandon Bass or Marcin Gortat (with his consent, which presumably he'd give) back to Washington.

In any case, a three-way deal with Orlando and Memphis is the obvious escape hatch for the Wizards' predicament. But Memphis (or Sacramento) must be involved, since all the avenues above require using nearly all of the Grizzlies' or Kings' $4.2 million in remaining cap space. The best arrangement I come up with has Washington sending Randy Foye and Javaris Crittenton to Memphis and the Grizzlies sending Hamed Haddadi and Steven Hunter to Washington to complete the deal.

At the end, the Wizards will have wiped away $9 million in tax obligations, even before we get into any of the particulars with Arenas.


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New Orleans Hornets, $3.33 million over

The Hornets may make the playoffs despite their slow start, but that doesn't change their terrible economics. The Hornets aren't making much bank and are unlikely to sign off on what amounts to $10 million in expenses ($3 million in salary, $3 million in luxury tax, $4 million in foregone distributions) just to give themselves a 50-50 chance of making the playoffs as L.A.'s Round 1 punching bag.

New Orleans has added incentive because the Hornets already are over next year's projected luxury-tax line by several million dollars. (Orlando, the Lakers, Denver and Dallas are the only other four teams that are certain to be over, though several other clubs dance perilously close to the line.) Because of this, some wonder if the Hornets will be forced to deal David West, but I doubt it will come to that.

As luck would have it, the Sacramento Kings are $4.15 million under the cap at the moment, making them an obvious trade partner. The two sides could set some kind of record for dead money included in a deal, actually, if the Kings swapped Kenny Thomas and Andres Nocioni to the Hornets for Darius Songaila, James Posey, Morris Peterson and Hilton Armstrong.

Such a deal would likely cost the Hornets cash and a first-rounder, too, since the Kings would be eating into their potential 2010 cap space. In fact, the Kings might turn the screws and demand that promising point guard Darren Collison be part of the swap. Nonetheless, that might be worth it for New Orleans since it would get them under next year's tax as well as this year's -- much as it made sense for Utah to deal Maynor recently.

Other variations on this deal also work. For instance, replace Nocioni with Beno Udrih and Armstrong with Devin Brown and the Hornets save just as much this year, albeit less next year. Subtracting Thomas and Posey from the deal also works. In all of these scenarios, incidentally, the four-for-two or three-for-one nature of the deal would require Sacramento to cut Sean May. But I presume they'd get over it quickly.

The point is that the Hornets have an obvious incentive to rent the Kings' cap space, and the Kings could use some of what the Hornets have to offer (cash, a pick, potential relief from the 2011-12 money owed to either Nocioni or Udrih). It cuts into Sacramento's cap room for next summer by about $3 million (depending on the exact parameters), but considering that draft picks normally cost $3 million, they'd get cash and a couple of useful players out of it. And since they weren't going to be in the LeBron sweepstakes anyway, it works out nicely on their end, too.


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Utah Jazz, $4.86 million over

The trade of Harpring and Maynor was only the first salvo for the Jazz, who still have work to do to pull themselves under the luxury-tax threshold. As with their fellow small-market club in New Orleans, it simply isn't worth it for the Jazz to rack up such a tremendous expense just to be a fringe playoff team.

The Jazz have an obvious gem to dangle before interested parties in the form of Carlos Boozer, who has an expiring contract worth $12 million and has performed at an All-Star level through the first half of the season. Utah would likely need to package him with Kyle Korver, who has an expiring deal of his own worth $5.1 million.

One such scenario, for instance, would be if the Jazz sent Boozer to Charlotte, a team that's suddenly angling for a playoff spot and in need of some help at power forward given Boris Diaw's disappointing output. The potential haul from such a deal is likely disappointing from Utah's perspective, as they could get Diaw, Gerald Henderson and a lottery-protected first-round pick. But that's about all they can expect considering Boozer will be a three-month rental for whoever acquires him.

If they made it a three-way deal by sending Korver to the Clippers, Ricky Davis to the Bobcats (using the trade exception from the Raja Bell deal) and Mardy Collins to Utah, it would get Utah under the tax. The Clips would probably sign off on such a scenario only if Korver shows he's returned to health, so there are several hurdles here. But it strikes me as the most likely alternative as the Jazz aim to hit their financial goals, because the other potential acquirers would either put themselves deeper into the tax or have no strong need for a scoring power forward.


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Miami Heat, $2.81 million over

Miami's decision to guarantee Carlos Arroyo's contract for the rest of the season surprised me because it made it harder for the Heat to get under the tax line come February. But with Miami's American Airlines Arena drawing poorly and another first-round playoff exit seeming highly likely, they're another team that I expect to cut money in the next month. It's not quite the slam-dunk case that the first three examples offer, but the dollar amount is small enough that Miami could accomplish the savings without much pain.

The simple, one-step plan for doing this is called "trading Dorell Wright." If there is one player I can almost guarantee will be changing uniforms in the next month, it's Wright -- the financial incentives are too good not to.

The Heat can offer anyone the $951,066 he'll have left on his contract on trade-deadline day to take Wright off their hands, likely adding a sweetener for the trouble (for instance, either more cash or one of the two second-round picks they got from the Hornets on draft day last year). Any number of teams could pull off such a deal, with the prime suspects being the Clippers (a $3.3 million trade exception from the Zach Randolph deal and an owner who loves to make a buck) and the Grizzlies.

The added benefit of such a deal for Miami is a $2.8 million trade exception that they would carry into next year's trading season, giving the Heat an added means of loading up the roster following their expected free-agent splurge this summer.

[KidCongo]

I requested it in the Spurs forum... but could someone with ESPN Insider also post the article by Hollinger on under the radar players from yesterday (or day before)...

I think it featured Tim Duncan...

Thanks in advance.

Sorry to hijack Ruff :lol

NBA regular-season games come pretty fast and furious, and in the tumult sometimes we miss a few details. While certain stories race to the forefront (I can think of a current one in D.C., for instance), others get left behind.

That applies to players' performances, as well. Some exploits have leapt to the fore -- many of you, for example, have already read and heard about Gerald Wallace's outsized rebounding exploits this season. But how many of you have noticed what his teammate, Raymond Felton, has been up to?

The same applies in Sacramento, where Tyreke Evans has deservedly become an attention sponge. However, that has soaked up any ink we might have spilled on equally compelling stories about the play of fellow rookie Omri Casspi or the renaissance of Beno Udrih.

That's where I come in. Today I'm presenting my all "under-the-radar" team. This isn't a list of players who are underrated, per se, but those whose performances this particular season aren't receiving nearly enough attention. To use an example from above, Wallace is underrated in the big-picture sense, but has gained plenty of notoriety for his work on the glass in this particular campaign. On the other hand, two perennial All-Stars are plenty famous in the big-picture sense, but strangely unheralded for what they've done this season. They're the first two players on this list, as you might have guessed, and here it is:

Nash
Nash

Steve Nash, Phoenix
I think most people realize Nash is having a pretty good season, mostly because the Suns are winning. However, very few people realize he's having the best statistical season of his career, even better than his two MVP seasons.

For a 35-year-old point guard, this is simply extraordinary. Nash's shooting percentage (54.3 percent), points and assists per 40 minutes (22.6 and 13.4, respectively) and player efficiency rating (24.64) are all on pace for new career highs. And his true shooting percentage leads all non-centers with at least 100 shot attempts.

Here's another example of how good he's been: You know the 50-40-90 club, for breaking 50 percent from the floor, 40 percent on 3s and 90 percent from the line? Nash is not only on pace for a third straight season in that esteemed group, but also has a chance to create a new one called "55-45-95" -- he's at 54.3-44.1-94.2 right now.

Duncan
Duncan

Tim Duncan, San Antonio
Defensively, I'm not sure he's back to being the monster he was. Offensively? He's crushing. Duncan ranks second only to LeBron James in PER -- with a 27.74 mark that exceeds what he did in his two MVP seasons.

Duncan's 55 percent mark from the floor would set a new career high; his 76.4 percent from the line is the best he's done in eight years. He isn't putting up gaudy per-game numbers because he's averaging only 31 minutes a game, but Duncan's renewed vigor is the primary reason behind San Antonio's quiet creep up to second in the Power Rankings.

Landry
Landry

Carl Landry, Houston
By all rights, Landry should be the runaway winner of this year's Sixth Man Award. He may, in fact, merit a spot on the All-Star team. He's been Houston's stealth go-to guy, averaging a staggering 25.1 points per 40 minutes off the bench and doing it with spectacular efficiency: Landry shoots 54.2 percent from the field and 86.5 percent from the line.

The only thing that might prevent Landry from winning the Sixth Man trophy is if he claims a spot in the starting lineup. The current arrangement limits him to only 26.9 minutes per game, which is a little odd considering he's been far and away the team's best player. One wonders if replacing Luis Scola or Chuck Hayes with Landry might give the Rockets an extra boost of offensive firepower.

Maggette
Maggette

Corey Maggette, Golden State
Everyone dumps on the Warriors for the six-year, $48 million deal they gave Maggette in the summer of 2008, but look a little closer: He's been fabulous this season. He's shooting 53.3 percent from the floor after landing in the low-to-mid 40s for most of his career. Combined with his supernatural skill at drawing fouls, the high mark from the floor gives him a 62.9 TS%, placing him among the league's most efficient scorers.

He scores a lot, too -- 26.1 points per 40 minutes -- while his rebound rate is on pace for a new career high. As a result, he quietly ranks fourth among small forwards in PER behind the holy trinity of LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Carmelo Anthony.

And for those of you who complain about the whistles LeBron James and Kobe Bryant get, eat your heart out. I swear to you, nobody gets more superstar calls than Maggette, even though he's nobody's idea of a superstar. It's unbelievable but undeniable once you watch enough Warriors games, and it further pads his astounding free throw totals.

Udrih
Udrih

Beno Udrih, Sacramento
Udrih was disastrously bad last season but has been one of the league's most improved players this season. Like a lot of the other players on this list, he's shot the ball much better, hitting 51 percent from the floor and 41.1 percent on 3s. But an equal partner in Udrih's rise has been reducing turnovers. Despite his being mostly a midrange shooter, he had a stubbornly high turnover rate his whole career, losing the trust of coaches in San Antonio and Sacramento.

This season, however, his turnover rate is in single digits for the first time in his career. He's barely there at 9.9, but that number puts him in the top third of point guards and makes it much easier to keep him on the floor for his scoring.

Ridnour
Ridnour

Luke Ridnour, Milwaukee
Brandon Jennings has been only the second-best point guard in Milwaukee this season. Ridnour is having a career season off the bench -- a well-timed one, I might add, since he's a free agent this summer -- and of all the players on this list, he's the one who has exceeded his career norms the most.

Ridnour had never shot better than 41.8 percent from the floor; this season he's at 51.6 percent. He'd made one-third of his career 3-pointers; this season he's at 38.2 percent. He'd barely averaged a point every three minutes for his career; this season it's better than one every two, for a stunning 20.2 per 40 minutes.

Overall, Ridnour's 19.26 PER (sixth among point guards) and pesky perimeter D make him a strong candidate for the Most Improved Player award ... provided anybody notices given all the attention on Jennings' play thus far.

Love
Love

Kevin Love, Minnesota
Love missed the start of the season with a broken bone in his hand, but he's been ridiculously efficient since returning 18 games ago. For starters, he leads all power forwards in rebound rate -- and only Dwight Howard and Greg Oden outrank him leaguewide. Additionally, he's shown himself to be a capable scorer. Love's 19.5 points per 40 minutes make him a solid third option in Minny, especially since he's nearly doubled his assist ratio from last season.

Sum it all up, and his 23.37 PER ranks fourth among power forwards and is just 0.21 from being second. He won't make the All-Star team because his team is bad and his D remains suspect, but at age 21 Love already is an All-Star caliber player.

Flynn
Kirilenko

Andrei Kirilenko, Utah
When focusing on Utah's disappointing results the past two seasons, Kirilenko makes for an easy target. He earns $16.5 million this season and hasn't delivered on his six-year, $86 million deal, operating more as a role player than as a centerpiece. Plus, his lack of fire can be a little disconcerting at times.

That said, he's been the only Utah wing player to do anything of consequence this season. While Ronnie Brewer and C.J. Miles struggle to play decently at either end, Kirilenko is putting together a second straight solid season off the bench. Unlike the other players on this list, Kirilenko's play hasn't been wildly out of line with his career norms. But his minutes have made an impact -- the Jazz are 6.8 points per 100 possessions better with AK-47 on the floor this season, with the entire difference coming at the defensive end.

Felton
Felton

Raymond Felton, Charlotte
After four years of making virtually no improvement, I had given up on Felton. But out of the blue he's taken a big step forward in Year 5, mostly because he's finally making shots. Felton had been one of the worst finishers in basketball year after year, but this season he's making better decisions at the rim and converting 47.1 percent from the floor.

As a result, his TS% is above 50 for the first time in his career and his PER is above the league average for the first time, as well. Those two firsts may be joined by another come spring -- a first-ever playoff appearance for both Felton and the Bobcats. As with Ridnour, his timing is impeccable since it's a contract year.

Casspi
Casspi

Omri Casspi, Sacramento
David Thorpe stole my thunder on this one, but Casspi has been magnificent as a late first-round steal by the Kings. Mainly, the cause has been his unexpectedly spectacular shooting. He's making 47.1 percent of his 3s despite an odd under-the-chin motion, and he's been solid inside the arc as well (49.8 percent from the floor overall), averaging nearly a point every two minutes.

Additionally, he's been gaining steam of late. Casspi has four straight 20-point games and seven in the last month; he's also yanking down nearly eight boards a game in his past seven contests. Thanks to Evans' exploits, Casspi has little chance of winning Rookie of the Year, even if the vote were held in his own locker room. But it's rare to see an import light it up like this in his first year stateside. As with the other players on this list, it's an accomplishment worthy of more attention than it's received.

[fevertrees]

Can't take any article seriously that has the Hornets putting DownTown Devin Brown out on the trade market!

[baseline bum]

Pull the trigger, RC:

http://img42.imageshack.us/img42/2769/tradea.png

PG Parker
SG Durant
SF James
PF Duncan
C Howard

[GuerillaBlack]

Very realistic trade. ;)

[Kindergarten Cop]

Pull the trigger, RC:

http://img42.imageshack.us/img42/2769/tradea.png

PG Parker
SG Durant
SF James
PF Duncan
C Howard

Get it done, RC!:wow:lol

[Muser]

:lol

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

Thanks Behold the King. :tu

And nice work bb!

GET

IT

DONE.

:lmao