McDonald: On doubling Duncan

[duncan228]

On doubling Duncan (http://blogs.mysanantonio.com/weblogs/courtside/2010/01/on-doubling-dun.html)
By Jeff McDonald

There has been much chatter recently about the sharp rise in Tim Duncan's production this season, and how it relates to the fear factor he still instills — or does not instill — for opposing teams.

It is no secret that Duncan is not commanding double teams with near the frequency he used to (namely, every time he touches the ball). The Spurs know this. Duncan knows this.

It begs the question: Does this change in opponents' basic Spurs-stopping game plan signify a drop in respect for Duncan? Or is it due to a rise in respect for Duncan's upgraded supporting cast?

Certainly, this slip in attention is at least partially responsible for Duncan's drastic uptick in production (though I'd submit improved health is also to blame). He is averaging 20.2 points and shooting 55.4 percent from the field, both numbers significant improvements over his injury-riddled campaign last season. Adjusted for 48 minutes, the 22.7 points Duncan is averaging is a career high.

Yes, a career high.

He also ranks second in the league this season in Player Efficiency Rating, behind some guy named LeBron James.

It is true teams are choosing to deal with Duncan more one-on-one than they used to, choosing their poison so as not to allow the Spurs' cadre of other shooters and scorers to get going. Let Duncan get what he's going to get. Just stop the drives of Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, and don't let the Spurs' outside shooters start raining 3-pointers.

This strategy has its proponents. As they did in the playoffs, the Dallas Mavericks sent very few double teams Duncan's way during Friday's 112-103 Dallas win. Duncan had 31 points in the loss.

So maybe Duncan's skyrocketing numbers, in a convoluted sense, actually mean teams don't fear him anymore. Maybe they should. Or maybe it just means opposing teams just fear Duncan's teammates more.

All this begs yet another question: Does it matter?

With Duncan leading them in scoring for the first time in three seasons, the Spurs are averaging 102.1 points per game, a Gregg Popovich-era record. Offense isn't a problem for them, no matter how they are being defended.

[DesignatedT]

garbage

[Blackjack]

If I'm the opposition, I do what the Mavs have been doing since the '06 series and others (Lakers, for example) have done that have had success against the Spurs: Limit Tony's penetration; (go under the screens and sag off) play Tim straight-up; and take away the three-point shot from the role players. (people that historically haven't been able to put the ball on the floor and/or create.)

Tim's greatness has never been his scoring, it's been his ability to facilitate and anchor both the offense and defense from a pivot position; his all-around game made those around him better, as apposed to him dragging the team across the finish line with beaucoup points.

Tim had the ability to do so back in the day, thus the certainty of a double-team, but times have changed. Tim will still put up some impressive numbers, but he's not going to kill you with his scoring if others aren't involved or effective; 31 and 12 would've been done in double, not single-coverage in years past.

It was always said by announcers and fans that Tim could've lead the league in scoring if he wanted to, and, technically, they'd be right. But only technically.

Tim made himself into the efficient, prolific score he became. He wasn't born that way.

He's always had a conscience and even a reluctance, at times, to monopolize the ball at the expense of his teammates or to bask in the spotlight.

He scored because it's what was needed and asked for him to do; something he still does to this day.

Something that's just not as dominant or prolific as yesterday.

[TIMMYD!]

McDonald messed up, if you translate his points to a per 48 its not 22.7.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

The Spurs low post offense is predicated on teams doubling Tim so he can hit the cutter or a perimeter shooter. Not really that surprising that more and more teams are taking away the primary tenet of the Spurs O.

[DPG21920]

Spurs need to pull an Amare on Dirk. Just guard him with who you can and let him get his. But under no circumstances do you double him. You stick on Terry and Howard and try and force Kidd to shoot. Now, Dirk is certainly more potent offensively than Amare, but the point remains; do not allow anyone else to hurt you.

It is tough, but I feel that is the best way to play the Mavs.

[doobs]

He meant per 36 minutes.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/duncati01.html

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

McDonald messed up, if you translate his points to a per 48 its not 22.7.

True...it's 30.3 PP48min.

But that actually is his career best Per 48. The year he averaged 25.5 PPG his Per 48 stat was only 30.15.

[mystargtr34]

I think he ment per 36 minutes..