Chieflion
01-14-2010, 06:51 PM
http://www.nba.com/2010/news/features/john_schuhmann/01/14/numbers.game/index.html?ls=iref:nbahpt1
I am going to focus on the part about who is really the best in the West. If you want to read the whole article, the link is there.
The 30-9 Lakers currently lead the Spurs by five games in the Western Conference. But statistically, San Antonio has been the better team.
The numbers show that the Lakers' record is slightly inflated. According to the expected wins formula, they should be 29-10. But the Spurs should be 28-9, percentage points ahead of L.A. When you run the numbers over 82 games, the Spurs should win 61 games and the Lakers should win 60.
If both teams play the remainder of the season as they have so far, the Spurs would make a run at the top seed in the West.
Of course, it's not that simple for the following reasons:
1. Much has been made of the Lakers' home-heavy schedule this season, but the Spurs have also played more at home (23 games) than away (14). And San Antonio has had the weaker schedule of the two. Their opponents have a combined winning percentage of .479, while the Lakers' opponents have a combined winning percentage of .493.
2. The Lakers have been without Pau Gasol for 17 of their 39 games, and they've been a much better team with Gasol than without him. The Lakers' win total with Gasol projects to 68 wins while its without-Gasol numbers project to 46 wins. Gasol's presence isn't quite worth 22 games in the standings, though, because the with-Gasol schedule has been much weaker and more home-heavy than the without-Gasol schedule.
3. The Spurs haven't missed any of their key players for an extended period of time, but they have needed time to integrate four new guys into their rotation. And the numbers back that up. The Spurs of the first 18 games had the numbers of a 51-win team, while the Spurs of the last 19 games have had the numbers of a 69-win team. Once again, you have to take into account a much weaker schedule over the last 19 games.
I am going to focus on the part about who is really the best in the West. If you want to read the whole article, the link is there.
The 30-9 Lakers currently lead the Spurs by five games in the Western Conference. But statistically, San Antonio has been the better team.
The numbers show that the Lakers' record is slightly inflated. According to the expected wins formula, they should be 29-10. But the Spurs should be 28-9, percentage points ahead of L.A. When you run the numbers over 82 games, the Spurs should win 61 games and the Lakers should win 60.
If both teams play the remainder of the season as they have so far, the Spurs would make a run at the top seed in the West.
Of course, it's not that simple for the following reasons:
1. Much has been made of the Lakers' home-heavy schedule this season, but the Spurs have also played more at home (23 games) than away (14). And San Antonio has had the weaker schedule of the two. Their opponents have a combined winning percentage of .479, while the Lakers' opponents have a combined winning percentage of .493.
2. The Lakers have been without Pau Gasol for 17 of their 39 games, and they've been a much better team with Gasol than without him. The Lakers' win total with Gasol projects to 68 wins while its without-Gasol numbers project to 46 wins. Gasol's presence isn't quite worth 22 games in the standings, though, because the with-Gasol schedule has been much weaker and more home-heavy than the without-Gasol schedule.
3. The Spurs haven't missed any of their key players for an extended period of time, but they have needed time to integrate four new guys into their rotation. And the numbers back that up. The Spurs of the first 18 games had the numbers of a 51-win team, while the Spurs of the last 19 games have had the numbers of a 69-win team. Once again, you have to take into account a much weaker schedule over the last 19 games.