Ed Helicopter Jones
01-22-2010, 01:42 PM
At the halfway point of the '09-'10 season, the Spurs record stands at 25-16. What has been painfully obvious to fans of the team is San Antonio's seeming lack of ability to notch any "quality" wins so far this year. With the second half of the season being deemed as "brutal", I thought I'd apply the team's first half season operating results to the remainder of the schedule to project a potential win/loss record. When I did so, projecting our record based on year-to-date performance against playoff and non-playoff teams, home vs. away, I came up with 48 projected wins.
This number surprised me actually, because at first glance I figured we'd be able to capture 18 to 20, max rather than 23 in the season's second half, based solely on prior performance, before applying the math.
Through 41 games the Spurs have only notched 3 wins against Western conference playoff teams, going 3-11 in 14 contests, including a paltry 2-6 at home. The numbers are better against Eastern playoff teams, with the Spurs going 3-4, however this includes a dismal 0-3 on the road. Add that up and the Spurs are 6-15 (1-8 on the road) so far against teams that matter come April, 19-1 against non-playoff teams.
In the second half of the season the Spurs' schedule does ramp up somewhat, and they do play more road games, but they will again play 20 games against teams not currently qualified for the playoffs.
If you apply the same percentages (Spurs record vs. playoff teams - home vs. road, and games against non playoff teams) the Spurs would win another 19 games against non-playoff teams, and then notch a 4-17 mark against playoff opponents, leaving them at 48-34 on the season.
Would this get them into the playoffs? Perhaps. But this team would be the ultimate paper tiger, being 10-32 against playoff teams, with only 5 of those wins being against playoff teams from the West. I shudder to even think about watching this team in its current state playing a first round playoff series as a lower seed.
In order to compare the team's performance with one of our successful post season teams I looked back at the Spurs' last championship team, the 2006-2007 Spurs.
That year the Spurs were 28-13 at the midway point of the season...only 3 games better than this year. But, when you look closer, after 41 games the '06-'07 team was 11-10 against playoff teams, 17-3 against teams that ended up not qualifying for the post season.
The second half of the season the Spurs played better, as they usually do, going 30-11, which included a 14-7 mark against playoff-bound opposition, and 16-4 against non-playoff teams.
For the season, the '06-'07 Spurs posted a 25-17 mark against playoff teams, 33-7 against non-playoff teams.
It's possible for the Spurs to hit the 50 win mark this season while going only 11-31 against playoff teams....amazing. But I'd venture a guess that if the Spurs can't do at least as well as that '06-'07 team against playoff-bound teams in the second half of the season, matching their 14-7 mark from that year, that you can expect to see a quick playoff exit for our Spurs. If they can't beat the league's better teams in the regular season, I wouldn't expect to see them suddenly be able to do it in the playoffs. I want the second half surge, not 'one-and-done'.
Here's to praying for the SPAM. :toast
This number surprised me actually, because at first glance I figured we'd be able to capture 18 to 20, max rather than 23 in the season's second half, based solely on prior performance, before applying the math.
Through 41 games the Spurs have only notched 3 wins against Western conference playoff teams, going 3-11 in 14 contests, including a paltry 2-6 at home. The numbers are better against Eastern playoff teams, with the Spurs going 3-4, however this includes a dismal 0-3 on the road. Add that up and the Spurs are 6-15 (1-8 on the road) so far against teams that matter come April, 19-1 against non-playoff teams.
In the second half of the season the Spurs' schedule does ramp up somewhat, and they do play more road games, but they will again play 20 games against teams not currently qualified for the playoffs.
If you apply the same percentages (Spurs record vs. playoff teams - home vs. road, and games against non playoff teams) the Spurs would win another 19 games against non-playoff teams, and then notch a 4-17 mark against playoff opponents, leaving them at 48-34 on the season.
Would this get them into the playoffs? Perhaps. But this team would be the ultimate paper tiger, being 10-32 against playoff teams, with only 5 of those wins being against playoff teams from the West. I shudder to even think about watching this team in its current state playing a first round playoff series as a lower seed.
In order to compare the team's performance with one of our successful post season teams I looked back at the Spurs' last championship team, the 2006-2007 Spurs.
That year the Spurs were 28-13 at the midway point of the season...only 3 games better than this year. But, when you look closer, after 41 games the '06-'07 team was 11-10 against playoff teams, 17-3 against teams that ended up not qualifying for the post season.
The second half of the season the Spurs played better, as they usually do, going 30-11, which included a 14-7 mark against playoff-bound opposition, and 16-4 against non-playoff teams.
For the season, the '06-'07 Spurs posted a 25-17 mark against playoff teams, 33-7 against non-playoff teams.
It's possible for the Spurs to hit the 50 win mark this season while going only 11-31 against playoff teams....amazing. But I'd venture a guess that if the Spurs can't do at least as well as that '06-'07 team against playoff-bound teams in the second half of the season, matching their 14-7 mark from that year, that you can expect to see a quick playoff exit for our Spurs. If they can't beat the league's better teams in the regular season, I wouldn't expect to see them suddenly be able to do it in the playoffs. I want the second half surge, not 'one-and-done'.
Here's to praying for the SPAM. :toast