Shank
01-26-2010, 01:36 PM
Is Utah really NBA's best team?
PER Diem: Jan. 26, 2010
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By John Hollinger
ESPN.com
I know what you're all thinking: Utah?
Utah?!
OK, Utah.
The Jazz are No. 1 in the Power Rankings, ahead of the mighty Cavs and Lakers, after rallying from 17 down to beat Phoenix on Monday night -- their latest high-profile win in a torrid 10-game stretch. The Jazz are 8-2 in their past 10 games, including six victories against teams with winning records, and several of the wins were impressive: They beat Memphis by 23 without Deron Williams, topped Miami by 29 and dumped Dallas by 18 on the road. They also, of course, had that dramatic nationally televised win over Cleveland, when little-known Sundiata Gaines hit a game-winning 3 at the buzzer.
Still, the Jazz are 26-18 overall, while the Lakers and Cavs are seven and eight games ahead of them in the standings at 33-11 and 35-11, respectively. Are we really saying that the Jazz are better than those two?
Let me offer a brief defense of the Jazz before I give the final answer:
1. The records lie
Utah is 26-18, but has the scoring margin of a team that should be 30-14. The Jazz haven't been fortunate in close games (5-8 in games decided by five points or fewer) but have been in nearly every other contest. Utah's only two blowout losses have come in the infamous 101-77 loss to the Lakers in which they scored only six points in the fourth quarter, and a 96-83 loss to Atlanta in which they pulled the starters when trailing by 27 in the middle of the third quarter.
As a result, the standings don't reflect Utah's true strength. Most notably, the Jazz trail Dallas by three games in the standings despite a much better scoring margin.
2. Their schedule has been difficult
The Jazz have played more home games than road games, something they have in common with several West rivals at this point (among the conference's upper crust, only the Mavs have played more on the road than at home). That may make it seem like the tough part of their schedule is still to come. In truth, the Jazz just finished the tough part and they slapped it around.
Utah opponents have a .521 winning percentage when not playing the Jazz; only Houston, Miami and Toronto have faced tougher slates thus far. Cleveland opponents are at .497 (19th), and the Lakers, at .512 (seventh), aren't too far behind Utah. But L.A. has had even more home cookin' than the Jazz, having played 26 home games and only 18 away from Staples Center.
Looking ahead, the Jazz should be able to make up some of the ground in the standings, as Utah faces only one elite team on the road the rest of the season (the Lakers). The next-best team the Jazz play away from home is Oklahoma City, with the rest coming against losing teams or fringe playoff contenders.
3. They have held up against the big guns
In addition to their well-chronicled 4-0 season sweep of the Spurs and the aforementioned win over Cleveland, the Jazz nearly beat the Cavs on the road without Williams on Nov. 14 (a 107-103 loss in Cleveland) and split the season series with both Orlando and the Lakers (with two more games against L.A. still to come). It's a small sample and I don't put a lot of weight on it, but since a lot of people want to compare how heavyweights did against one another, it's worth noting that the Jazz have held their own in this department.
4. Recent history
OK, this is the crux of the issue. The most recent 25 percent of games played are weighed most heavily by the Power Rankings, and that's only 11 games at this point in the season. It may not seem like it because they aren't on a huge winning streak -- they're 8-3 in their past 11 games -- but the Jazz have been far and away the best team in the league in that span.
Against the fourth-most-difficult schedule, the Jazz's average scoring margin over their past 11 games is plus-11.3 -- nobody else is better than plus-7.0. Even if you take away the scrimmage against the lowly Nets on Jan. 23 they're plus-9.1, and that's against opponents with an average winning percentage near .600; no other team has faced opposition better than .562 in the same stretch. Use any formula you wish, mutilate the calculation as badly as you want, and you'll still reach the same conclusion: The Jazz have been the league's best team over the most recent quarter of the schedule.
5. It's a compressed league
I keep getting back to this because it's true … and because it's a huge point. The Lakers and Cavs may have the two best records, but the margin between those two and the pack has never been as large as the distance last season between the top four teams and everybody else.
We perceive the Lakers and Cavs as miles ahead of the field, but in reality that hasn't been true. L.A. and Cleveland have scoring margins of 61-win teams, which is excellent but hardly dominant. Factor in the schedules, and the Playoff Odds project the Lakers and Cavs to finish with 57 and 60 wins, respectively.
Those are the two best projected records in the league, and nobody else projects to win more than 53 games. If that holds up, it would be the first time since 2002-03 that no team won more than 60 games, the first time since 2001-02 that the league didn't have multiple 60-game winners and the first time since 1987-88 (when it was a 23-team league) that there weren't at least three 55-game winners.
We're seeing that reflected in the Power Rankings. The Jazz, Cavs and Lakers all have ratings in the 106 range -- which is good, but in a normal year, it would not be leading the league. Nine teams behind them clump together with ratings between 102.3 and 104.8, and their positions shift almost daily. A second group of seven hopefuls between 100.0 and 101.5 stands in a similar herd.
Compaction is an important concept to remember when eyeing the Lakers, Cavs and Jazz as well. Remember, the number in the second column of the Rankings (overall record) is more important than the number in the first column (rating). Utah's lead over the other two is small enough in the first column (0.57 over L.A., 0.70 over Cleveland) that a bad outing in Portland on Wednesday night could easily shift the Jazz back to third.
So … on to the big question: Am I saying the Jazz are better than the Cavs and Lakers? Depends on what you mean by "better." The Jazz are playing better than anyone in basketball right now, and that's why they're No. 1 in the Power Rankings -- which, by nature, are designed to put a heavy weight on a team's current form. If the Jazz were to start a series against Cleveland or L.A. that tipped off Tuesday, I'd be seriously inclined to pick them.
But "better" in the global sense? I'm not going anywhere near there yet. The Jazz earned the top spot in the Rankings thanks to a lack of dominance from the league's elite and their own recent torrid play, and props to them for it. That said, I need to see them do it for more than a couple weeks before I anoint them as legitimate challengers to the throne.
PER Diem: Jan. 26, 2010
Comment Email Print Share
By John Hollinger
ESPN.com
I know what you're all thinking: Utah?
Utah?!
OK, Utah.
The Jazz are No. 1 in the Power Rankings, ahead of the mighty Cavs and Lakers, after rallying from 17 down to beat Phoenix on Monday night -- their latest high-profile win in a torrid 10-game stretch. The Jazz are 8-2 in their past 10 games, including six victories against teams with winning records, and several of the wins were impressive: They beat Memphis by 23 without Deron Williams, topped Miami by 29 and dumped Dallas by 18 on the road. They also, of course, had that dramatic nationally televised win over Cleveland, when little-known Sundiata Gaines hit a game-winning 3 at the buzzer.
Still, the Jazz are 26-18 overall, while the Lakers and Cavs are seven and eight games ahead of them in the standings at 33-11 and 35-11, respectively. Are we really saying that the Jazz are better than those two?
Let me offer a brief defense of the Jazz before I give the final answer:
1. The records lie
Utah is 26-18, but has the scoring margin of a team that should be 30-14. The Jazz haven't been fortunate in close games (5-8 in games decided by five points or fewer) but have been in nearly every other contest. Utah's only two blowout losses have come in the infamous 101-77 loss to the Lakers in which they scored only six points in the fourth quarter, and a 96-83 loss to Atlanta in which they pulled the starters when trailing by 27 in the middle of the third quarter.
As a result, the standings don't reflect Utah's true strength. Most notably, the Jazz trail Dallas by three games in the standings despite a much better scoring margin.
2. Their schedule has been difficult
The Jazz have played more home games than road games, something they have in common with several West rivals at this point (among the conference's upper crust, only the Mavs have played more on the road than at home). That may make it seem like the tough part of their schedule is still to come. In truth, the Jazz just finished the tough part and they slapped it around.
Utah opponents have a .521 winning percentage when not playing the Jazz; only Houston, Miami and Toronto have faced tougher slates thus far. Cleveland opponents are at .497 (19th), and the Lakers, at .512 (seventh), aren't too far behind Utah. But L.A. has had even more home cookin' than the Jazz, having played 26 home games and only 18 away from Staples Center.
Looking ahead, the Jazz should be able to make up some of the ground in the standings, as Utah faces only one elite team on the road the rest of the season (the Lakers). The next-best team the Jazz play away from home is Oklahoma City, with the rest coming against losing teams or fringe playoff contenders.
3. They have held up against the big guns
In addition to their well-chronicled 4-0 season sweep of the Spurs and the aforementioned win over Cleveland, the Jazz nearly beat the Cavs on the road without Williams on Nov. 14 (a 107-103 loss in Cleveland) and split the season series with both Orlando and the Lakers (with two more games against L.A. still to come). It's a small sample and I don't put a lot of weight on it, but since a lot of people want to compare how heavyweights did against one another, it's worth noting that the Jazz have held their own in this department.
4. Recent history
OK, this is the crux of the issue. The most recent 25 percent of games played are weighed most heavily by the Power Rankings, and that's only 11 games at this point in the season. It may not seem like it because they aren't on a huge winning streak -- they're 8-3 in their past 11 games -- but the Jazz have been far and away the best team in the league in that span.
Against the fourth-most-difficult schedule, the Jazz's average scoring margin over their past 11 games is plus-11.3 -- nobody else is better than plus-7.0. Even if you take away the scrimmage against the lowly Nets on Jan. 23 they're plus-9.1, and that's against opponents with an average winning percentage near .600; no other team has faced opposition better than .562 in the same stretch. Use any formula you wish, mutilate the calculation as badly as you want, and you'll still reach the same conclusion: The Jazz have been the league's best team over the most recent quarter of the schedule.
5. It's a compressed league
I keep getting back to this because it's true … and because it's a huge point. The Lakers and Cavs may have the two best records, but the margin between those two and the pack has never been as large as the distance last season between the top four teams and everybody else.
We perceive the Lakers and Cavs as miles ahead of the field, but in reality that hasn't been true. L.A. and Cleveland have scoring margins of 61-win teams, which is excellent but hardly dominant. Factor in the schedules, and the Playoff Odds project the Lakers and Cavs to finish with 57 and 60 wins, respectively.
Those are the two best projected records in the league, and nobody else projects to win more than 53 games. If that holds up, it would be the first time since 2002-03 that no team won more than 60 games, the first time since 2001-02 that the league didn't have multiple 60-game winners and the first time since 1987-88 (when it was a 23-team league) that there weren't at least three 55-game winners.
We're seeing that reflected in the Power Rankings. The Jazz, Cavs and Lakers all have ratings in the 106 range -- which is good, but in a normal year, it would not be leading the league. Nine teams behind them clump together with ratings between 102.3 and 104.8, and their positions shift almost daily. A second group of seven hopefuls between 100.0 and 101.5 stands in a similar herd.
Compaction is an important concept to remember when eyeing the Lakers, Cavs and Jazz as well. Remember, the number in the second column of the Rankings (overall record) is more important than the number in the first column (rating). Utah's lead over the other two is small enough in the first column (0.57 over L.A., 0.70 over Cleveland) that a bad outing in Portland on Wednesday night could easily shift the Jazz back to third.
So … on to the big question: Am I saying the Jazz are better than the Cavs and Lakers? Depends on what you mean by "better." The Jazz are playing better than anyone in basketball right now, and that's why they're No. 1 in the Power Rankings -- which, by nature, are designed to put a heavy weight on a team's current form. If the Jazz were to start a series against Cleveland or L.A. that tipped off Tuesday, I'd be seriously inclined to pick them.
But "better" in the global sense? I'm not going anywhere near there yet. The Jazz earned the top spot in the Rankings thanks to a lack of dominance from the league's elite and their own recent torrid play, and props to them for it. That said, I need to see them do it for more than a couple weeks before I anoint them as legitimate challengers to the throne.