Hard cap in near future?

[SpurNation]

Posting this here because it could drastically effect the Spurs. And as I just found out...I posted a thread that was already posted in the nba forum but didn't realize that since I don't go to that forum that often. So for you Spur fans that just look here first...

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/ian_thomsen/01/29/countdown.trade.deadline/index.html?eref=sihp



5 Reasons why 2010 is more important than 2011



• It's not all about this free-agent class. All we've been hearing about is the importance of the coming summer, when LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Joe Johnson will be on the market.



But a more ominous date is 2011, as owners and players look ahead to a new collective bargaining agreement that will take effect in 2011-12. Four team executives have told me they're anticipating a hard cap on payrolls, which will clamp down on player salaries and prevent big franchises like the Lakers, Knicks and Celtics from outspending teams from smaller markets.




A hard cap would transform the way teams are assembled. Look at the Lakers, whose payroll of $91.4 million has vaulted them a league-leading $33.7 million above the cap. Try this perspective: If the soft-cap system of today was instantly replaced by a hard cap, the Lakers would no longer be able to afford the salaries of Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum, who are their second- and third-most-expensive players with current salaries of $16.5 million and $12.5 million, respectively. And even their disposal wouldn't be enough: The Lakers would need to slash another $4.8 million to climb under the hard cap. (Goodbye, Luke Walton.)




If, in fact, a hard cap is installed after next season, then it will likely be preceded by a transitional system over a short number of years that will enable contenders like the Lakers to keep the likes of Gasol and Bynum without destroying their roster. After all, it would be self-defeating for the NBA to instantly deconstruct the most popular -- and expensive -- payrolls. Maybe some kind of amnesty will enable a few salaries to be grandfathered in until those preexisting contracts expire.

No one knows for sure what kind of system will result from extended negotiations and a potential lockout of the players in July 2011. Some believe (as you'll see below) that the players will avoid a hard cap, or that other more creative solutions will be applied. But let me repeat this much: I asked executives from four teams what they think they'll be dealing with after next season, and all four predicted a hard cap.






"I really think worst case it will be a hard cap that gets phased in over three years," a GM said.




By "worst case," he's implying that the players shouldn't hope for anything better than a three-year transition. Another senior executive predicts an even more draconian transformation, especially if a failure of negotiations results in a lockout. "Our players don't save money," he said, and so he predicts that a few months without income will force the players to cave in and accept the owners' demands, including an instantaneous reduction in salaries similar to the harsh transformation of the NHL, which was able to get its players to concede to a 24 percent pay cut following the season-long lockout of 2004-05.




"If there's going to be a lockout," he said, "then there's a 99 percent chance there is going to be a hard cap."





...continued

[exstatic]

It's going to drastically effect the LEAGUE, not just the Spurs. They're saying that a deluxe contract, going forward, will be like $8M a year.

No MLE. No LLE. There will be a LOT of players playing for league minimum. This also makes Euroleague teams competitive for NBA players. Expect an exodus, both American and European players.

The players won't be prepared. Most of them spend what they have, and aren't prepared for a lockout. I'm sure they've been told to save money, but only a few of them probably will. The rest will get knuckled under by Stern, AGAIN.

I really think that the only chance the players have is for the class of 2010 (Wade, Bosh, LeBron) to NOT use their ETOs, play the 2010-2011 seasons on their current contracts, and be free agents in 2011. They could use that as leverage in the negotiations. Give us "this" or three of your brightest stars are going in unison to the Euroleague. That might even give Stern pause. Or, they could just sign there, and say "fuck you, call us when it's over"

[Agloco]

It's going to drastically effect the LEAGUE, not just the Spurs. They're saying that a deluxe contract, going forward, will be like $8M a year.

No MLE. No LLE. There will be a LOT of players playing for league minimum. This also makes Euroleague teams competitive for NBA players. Expect an exodus, both American and European players.

The players won't be prepared. Most of them spend what they have, and aren't prepared for a lockout. I'm sure they've been told to save money, but only a few of them probably will. The rest will get knuckled under by Stern, AGAIN.

I'm hard pressed to feel sorry for someone who makes seven figures and is living paycheck to paycheck.

If any player thinks that an 8 million dollar max contract is in any shape form or fashion a hardship, then I say to them, let me endure that hardship for you.

[Chieflion]

I'm hard pressed to feel sorry for someone who makes seven figures and is living paycheck to paycheck.

If any player thinks that an 8 million dollar max contract is in any shape form or fashion a hardship, then I say to them, let me endure that hardship for you.
Those players of that calibre get signed to contracts outside the NBA for shoes, McDonalds (LeBron), and many other advertisements like itouch (Wade and Dwight), I think they will whine, but in the end, they will still live by. It is actually those players of lesser calibre who need to sign a vet minimum that is worth the concerns. Euro teams will come in and swoop away middle talent players with their cash, making the league very unbalanced.

[exstatic]

I'm hard pressed to feel sorry for someone who makes seven figures and is living paycheck to paycheck.

If any player thinks that an 8 million dollar max contract is in any shape form or fashion a hardship, then I say to them, let me endure that hardship for you.

Oh, don't get me wrong. I don't feel sorry for them. Who was it with the Rolls Royce's last time? Was that Kenny Anderson? :lol

They really need to control their message MUCH better this time. Rank and file players ALL say "no comment", and you have one voice speak for the player-side negotiating team.

[doobs]

This is something the NBA could have gotten away with 15 years ago. Maybe.

But now, the rest of the world is catching up.

[exstatic]

This is something the NBA could have gotten away with 15 years ago. Maybe.

But now, the rest of the world is catching up.

Make no mistake about it: they'll "get away with it" next year. Stern is the pimp of management-side Major sports league negotiation. Also, the players are never prepared, and ultimately, they capitulate.

[Mel_13]

This is something the NBA could have gotten away with 15 years ago. Maybe.

But now, the rest of the world is catching up.

They may not get a hard cap, but the next CBA will be much more advantageous to ownership than the current one. Lower maximum salaries, shorter guaranteed contracts, fewer exemptions from the cap, etc.

Some Childress-level players may find better deals in Europe, but the vast majority of elite basketball players will remain in the NBA. If a number of vet minimum type players leave the NBA they will hardly be missed.

Bad news for good players with contracts expiring in 2011 like Tony Parker. In previous years he could expect a lucrative contract extension this summer. I doubt the Spurs will have much interest in discussing Tony's next deal until the next CBA is signed.

[Mel_13]

They'll have to be careful with the timing of the hard cap as the Lakers are quickly getting up to a 100 million dollar pay roll (which the knicks are already at). Still the Spurs would never get up to 90 million unless they got a player on the level of Dwight to LeBron.

If they get a hard cap, it will have to implemented over a period of years. There's no way the NBA forces teams like the Lakers to immediately break up their team.

[murpjf88]

I don't see how this will affect the Spurs as much as it will the Lakers, Celtics, and Cavs. This is probably good news for the Spurs who may be able to compete in the years following Duncan's retirement. The talent will be evenly distributed rather than top heavy.

[exstatic]

There is no way the NBA could. Legal contracts prevent that. Only in an expansion draft could a team lose a player in said way. It is likely if a hard cap is put onto place it will be in 2016 when no team has money over the salary cap. Thus trades and signings involving long term deals. For example, if the projected 2016 hard cap is 85 million and the Spurs are at 80 one year before the cap goes into effect they could not use their full MLE to sign someone. It's the way it goes.

The owner quoted in the article said that the "worst case" (for management) would be a three year phase in. It ain't waiting until 2016. Shit, it'll be time for a new CBA by then. Enough contracts will roll off in three years to make things fit. Believe me, NBA team cap scientists are already working scenarios.

They're also saying "no MLE". That's the payroll killer. You get 3-4 of those on your books, you're fucked.

[exstatic]

Assuming Kobe signs a 20+ million a year deal over the next 3 or 4 years and no trades are made, the Lakers will have around 75 million tied up between Kobe, Pau, Artest, Brown, bynum and Luke Walton for the next few years.

Tough shit. They're one team/owner out of 30. At this point, negotiations to get the league money back on an even keel take precedence over pimping the league's favorite team. Coddling the Celtics in the 80s is what got the league into this mess in the first place. Larry Bird exception, my ass. They'll have to dump contracts.

Just looked. Kobe's fucked. He's a class of 2011 FA like Tony. The Lakers won't extend him. They'll wait until the new CBA gets done. They'll only be able to keep one of Gasol/Bynum.

[exstatic]

If the Spurs were in that situation it would be tough shit. However, since it is LA the league will try and work around it to help them out. It goes all the way back to the 1960s, the league would help the major markets Luke the Knicks because when the knicks or Lakers are good it is good for the NBA.

There will be no exceptions to the hard cap. This is sanctioned and driven by Stern. The other owners won't go along with it if someone doesn't have to play by the rules. Why would you think that, from a cap perspective? The Lakers have to play by the rules now. When Stern gives his babies "help", he doesn't like to leave fingerprints. Financial transactions/payroll are VERY traceable and verifiable.

Realistically, the league would be "helping" the Lakers by putting in the hard cap. Kobe will be 32 before next season. How much longer do they really want to pay him top dollar? If it's a three year transition, they could still extend this deal, but he'd be gonzo after that, off to be his version of MJ with the Wiz. None of the Laker deals run beyond 2014. That will be the drop dead date for the hard cap.

[baseline bum]

The Players' Association has already given up so many concessions since the 99 lockout. A fucking hard cap would be ridiculous.

[exstatic]

The Players' Association has already given up so many concessions since the 99 lockout. A fucking hard cap would be ridiculous.

Not as ridiculous as teams with 95M payrolls with a 55M "cap". At a minimum, the MLE must die.

[Das Texan]

Hell even if you had the 'soft' cap of 55 mil with a tax level until a hard cap of say 75-80 mil would be better probably.


and the mle is as good as gone you gotta imagine.

[dbestpro]

Recognizing that the Spurs have enjoyed numerous rings the problem with the NBA is the limited number of teams who have won an NBA championship over the past 20-30 years. Mix this thing up so more teams have a chance like the NFL and the sport will be back on top financially. Even baseball is more competitive.

[exstatic]

Recognizing that the Spurs have enjoyed numerous rings the problem with the NBA is the limited number of teams who have won an NBA championship over the past 20-30 years. Mix this thing up so more teams have a chance like the NFL and the sport will be back on top financially. Even baseball is more competitive.

Funny you should bring up the NFL. I belive it's one of the reasons for their parity and rotational winning.

I don't think a lot of you even understand what a hard cap means. In the NFL, you have to keep cap space available to sign your draft picks.

[Obstructed_View]

I love when sports team owners have to lock the players out because they don't collectively have the discipline not to individually stray from the playbook and overpay undeserving players. The people that gave Gilbert Arenas 111 million dollars should have immediately been required to relinquish control of their team.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

I love when sports team owners have to lock the players out because they don't collectively have the discipline not to individually stray from the playbook and overpay undeserving players. The people that gave Gilbert Arenas 111 million dollars should have immediately been required to relinquish control of their team.

+1.

Not that I'd be against the hard cap, but it's the owners who have fucked the flexible cap system throwing stupid money and then constantly trying to get rid of awful contracts, now they want to fight against their own stupidity. It's on them, I have no sympathy at all.

[alchemist]

I was thinking about this the other day, RJ has a year left. Does he have a player option to opt out? I know it sounds insane to leave 15 mil on the table, but it could be the last time he got a big contract with the lockout hanging over everyone's heads.

[exstatic]

I was thinking about this the other day, RJ has a year left. Does he have a player option to opt out? I know it sounds insane to leave 15 mil on the table, but it could be the last time he got a big contract with the lockout hanging over everyone's heads.

I don't think he could get $15M over 3 years this summer. Better of to play it out, and take what comes later when your contract is completely unaligned with your worth as a player.

[exstatic]

I was thinking about this the other day, RJ has a year left. Does he have a player option to opt out? I know it sounds insane to leave 15 mil on the table, but it could be the last time he got a big contract with the lockout hanging over everyone's heads.

Shit, the Spurs would be down at 39.1M if RJeff opted out. I looked. They could be a playa if they threw Manu under the bus.

[Sisk]

I'm hard pressed to feel sorry for someone who makes seven figures and is living paycheck to paycheck.

If any player thinks that an 8 million dollar max contract is in any shape form or fashion a hardship, then I say to them, let me endure that hardship for you.

the reality of it all is these guys overspend tremendously

entourage's, cars, family members, etc.

they'll all be too broke to participate in a lock out

[alchemist]

Shit, the Spurs would be down at 39.1M if RJeff opted out. I looked. They could be a playa if they threw Manu under the bus.
not to mention Tony's expiring if they really want to go batshit crazy.

Lebron/Tim/Amare :lobt2:

[exstatic]

the reality of it all is these guys overspend tremendously

entourage's, cars, family members, etc.

they'll all be too broke to participate in a lock out

Yeah, I was reading a column on cnnsi this morning with Devean George quoted as saying "players are saving, we'll be ready", and I was thinking yeah, right. I doubt if half these guys know where or how fast their money goes each month. They'll last a few months, like last time, and Stern will make them cry "uncle" in the end. The owners will be fine. The networks will continue to pay them while the lockout runs, to be paid back later, sort of a loan. That's their huge edge.

[dbestpro]

The NBA sent its proposal in and part of it is the hard cap. One of the things that happens is all teams would have to play with the same revenue and star contracts would have to be considerably less or they would be basically on one man teams. This actually could be a great thing for the NBA as it could drive competition into the game and the playoffs would be more than a foregone conclusion. It could even effect the way the game is called. It would be nice to see everyone get the same whistle just for the integrity of the game. Of course many players will role to Europe to get paid in monopoly money. I do think there will be a t least a half season hold out similar to the Spurs (short season) championship. If the economy does not show some vigor I would not be surprised to see a whole season lost.