Top Ranked Classes Don't Always Mean Success

[symple19]

Interesting article here as the big day looms

http://blog.al.com/solomon/2010/02/many_top-ranked_signing_classe.html


Signing Day comes Wednesday, which means one thing: It's almost time for recruiting services to declare winners and losers.
And for fans to start boasting about the quality of their favorite team's signing class.
But does it always work out as expected? The Birmingham News evaluated Rivals.com's recruiting rankings for the five signing classes from 2005 to '09. Not surprisingly, the results show that sustained success in the recruiting rankings can lead to success on the field but doesn't guarantee it.
Click here to download a PDF of this chart. View full size

Between 2005 and '09, the University of Southern California easily produced the highest average recruiting ranking by Rivals among Division I-A schools. Yet the Trojans are also a cautionary tale: They enjoyed immense success during that period, but never won the national title and dipped to a 9-4 record last season.
All 10 teams that played for the Bowl Championship Series national title since 2005 had an average Rivals recruiting ranking in the top 10 during those five years. Only Georgia, Florida State and Michigan were top-10 recruiting teams that didn't play for the national title.
Alabama, aided by three top-10 rankings since Nick Saban arrived, ranked fourth in the past five years based on the average of Rivals rankings. Auburn, with two top-10 classes under Tommy Tuberville that didn't pan out, ranked 12th in that period.
Other teams ranked higher than their recent on-field performance suggests: No. 3 Georgia, No. 5 Florida State, No. 9 Michigan, No. 14 Notre Dame, No. 18 UCLA and No. 19 Texas A&M. Among teams that overachieved compared to their recruiting average were Virginia Tech (No. 19 average and Oregon (No. 25).
Texas Christian, Boise State and Cincinnati -- all BCS participants last season -- had no single season in the top 45 from 2005 to '09. All three programs were ranked lower than 60th as recently as 2008.
Just as recruiting rankings don't always translate into a predictable level of success for teams, that doesn't always happen for individual players, either. Only 39 percent of the 2009 first-team Associated Press All-Americans on offense and defense were rated among the top 10 at their position entering college.
The average number of recruiting stars for a 2009 All-American by Rivals was 3.48. Three-star players are the most common rating by recruiting services.
Sometimes, a team's season can be remarkably different from what recruiting rankings would predict. Eight of Rivals' 15 best recruiting programs during the past five years did not finish the 2009 season in The Associated Press poll: Georgia, Florida State, Oklahoma, Michigan, Auburn, Tennessee, Notre Dame and South Carolina.
That underscores the significance of other elements in on-field success, such as coaching, injuries, attrition and motivation, not to mention misevaluations in the recruiting process.
Then again, each of Rivals' top-10 recruiting programs since 2005 has played in at least one BCS bowl. Those 10 teams account for 54 percent of BCS bowl participants during the past five years.
High team rankings indicate a better chance for on-field success, but they don't win championships. Fans will have to wait for actual performances on the field, well after the February winners and losers have been declared.

http://media.al.com/solomon/photo/202recruit1jpg-b7f2763bb34dcb49_medium.jpg


http://media.al.com/solomon/photo/0202recruit2jpg-f93a672ea911021f_large.jpg

[CubanSucks]

Interesting. I'm sure there are just as many misinterpretations for College to Pro as there are HS to College. Bottom line, Todd McShay and Kiper are both douches and suck at life

[leemajors]

Interesting. I'm sure there are just as many misinterpretations for College to Pro as there are HS to College. Bottom line, Todd McShay and Kiper are both douches and suck at life

They're both doing pretty well for themselves.

[vander]

top recruiting teams usually get 3 years out of their best players, and less than 3 years of them as starters, then they leave for the NFL.

BSU usually gets 5 years out of it's players, with most red-shirting as freshman. those 2 extra years being coached up and learning the system are very valuable.

[Blake]

top recruiting teams usually get 3 years out of their best players, and less than 3 years of them as starters, then they leave for the NFL.

BSU usually gets 5 years out of it's players, with most red-shirting as freshman. those 2 extra years being coached up and learning the system are very valuable.

Ian Johnson is going on what, his 7th year?

[Whisky Dog]

Of course it's not just the recruiting, it's taking the talent and makng it great.

[symple19]

For those who may care, reliable Auburn sources are already reporting that Lattimore will commit to USCe.

His official announcement is supposed to drop in about 30 minutes

[IronMexican]

Is that a big hit to Auburn?

[symple19]

Is that a big hit to Auburn?


It's official, Latt to USCe.

Nah, Auburn already has a 5* RB commit in Dyer. No doubt it would have been nice though. There are a lot of very emotional Auburn fans melting down right now, lol

AU needs O and D-line help a lot more. I want Corey Lemonier worse than I did Lattimore, but reports have him pretty solid to sign with FSU tomorrow.

I watched the commitment live, and he pulled one of those stupid hat tricks that kids love so much these days. He had his boy come out with a black bag, from which he pulled an Auburn hat. Everybody started to go nuts, and then he pulled a Gamecocks hat from inside the Auburn hat, and then the place went even more crazy (he was in a church in his hometown in South Carolina).

It's cool with me though. If he's as good as advertised then he won't need to be on a good team to realize his NFL dreams.

Perhaps he'll think about what could have been when Auburn is steadily rising back to national prominence and USCe is toiling away in 4th place in the SEC East. (LOL, my way of saying "We didn't want him anyway")

[bugoy]

I watched the commitment live, and he pulled one of those stupid hat tricks that kids love so much these days. He had his boy come out with a black bag, from which he pulled an Auburn hat. Everybody started to go nuts, and then he pulled a Gamecocks hat from inside the Auburn hat, and then the place went even more crazy (he was in a church in his hometown in South Carolina).
")


:lol do a lot of kids pull this crap?

[symple19]

:lol do a lot of kids pull this crap?

unfortunately :lol

I won't lie, even though I was pretty damn sure he wasn't going to go with Auburn my heart skipped a beat when he did that shit. It definitely worked.

I lol'd when some USCe fans in the church yelled NOOOO! right before he pulled out the Cocks hat

[gaKNOW!blee]

Good post. Anthony Morrelli was a 5 star recruit, while Daryll Clark and Michael Robinson were 3 star recruits. Obviously the latter 2 were much better players and PSU was much more successful with them at the helm.

Theres busts and steals in college recruiting just like the NFL draft. And just like finding those great UDFA's, you can find great walk ons.

[vander]

Ian Johnson is going on what, his 7th year?

I think He's going to get his shot in Minnesota next year

[The Gemini Method]

As a fan of USC...this is such a truth that I began to hope for less than the no. 1 class...It became way too much drivel and annoying to hear the pundits continuously tout the top recruiting classes as a surefire thing. It is nice to have loads of talent, but if that talent is only concerned on making it to the next stage, then it means nothing for the team they're on in the meantime.

By the way, Symple, do you necessarily need to call the Gamecocks USCe? lol.

[K-State Spur]

High school player rankings are based primarily on a kid's offer list. Analysts figure that if a kid is being recruited by Texas, USC, and Florida - he's probably pretty good...and they're usually right.

But let's not make it like these ratings analysts are excellent judges of talent and how skills will translate to the next level. Jeremy Crabtree has never been offered a school's recruiting coordinator position.

Bill Snyder built KSU into a national power on recruiting classes ranked in the 80s. K-State fell on hard times with players who were in recruiting classes ranked in the 20s.

This is an example of how the school recruiting a player is the biggest factor in that player's ranking. Recruiting rankings FOLLOW a school's success or failure...they rarely predict it.

Basketball is a little better because we can actually watch the top players play against each other on the AAU circuit (although that only vaguely resembles real basketball).

[symple19]

By the way, Symple, do you necessarily need to call the Gamecocks USCe? lol.

Yeah, it's a habit from following SEC football that's also meant as a kind of slap in the face of Gamecocks football. You see, the real USC is in LA, and the other little school with the little e at the end of their acronym is South Carolina. It pisses them off to no end. Pretty much every fan base in the SEC refers to them as such.

Sorry if it offends you, but the point is to offend them and not you :lol

[symple19]

High school player rankings are based primarily on a kid's offer list. Analysts figure that if a kid is being recruited by Texas, USC, and Florida - he's probably pretty good...and they're usually right.

But let's not make it like these ratings analysts are excellent judges of talent and how skills will translate to the next level. Jeremy Crabtree has never been offered a school's recruiting coordinator position.

Bill Snyder built KSU into a national power on recruiting classes ranked in the 80s. K-State fell on hard times with players who were in recruiting classes ranked in the 20s.

This is an example of how the school recruiting a player is the biggest factor in that player's ranking. Recruiting rankings FOLLOW a school's success or failure...they rarely predict it.

Basketball is a little better because we can actually watch the top players play against each other on the AAU circuit (although that only vaguely resembles real basketball).

That's sorta the point of the article. However, Rivals does it's due diligence (more so than the other services) in looking at kids, especially the big name ones. They are known for going into nooks and crannies to evaluate talent. Are they great at it? Probably not. Are they the foremost authority outside of big schools war rooms? Yes. Their network is probably better than many smaller D-1 schools, and they're probably right more than they are wrong. It's why people reference them 50 times more than any other service like Scouts, Maxpreps, Espn, and The Sporting News, among others

[vander]

High school player rankings are based primarily on a kid's offer list. Analysts figure that if a kid is being recruited by Texas, USC, and Florida - he's probably pretty good...and they're usually right.

But let's not make it like these ratings analysts are excellent judges of talent and how skills will translate to the next level. Jeremy Crabtree has never been offered a school's recruiting coordinator position.

Bill Snyder built KSU into a national power on recruiting classes ranked in the 80s. K-State fell on hard times with players who were in recruiting classes ranked in the 20s.

This is an example of how the school recruiting a player is the biggest factor in that player's ranking. Recruiting rankings FOLLOW a school's success or failure...they rarely predict it.


and yet BSU's rankings haven't budged.

also, did you read the original article? all the NCG participants in the last 5 years had top 10 average recruiting classes, and most top 10 recruiting colleges went to a NCG. that speaks volumes, for Rivals anyways

Also I'm sure these recruiting sites get better each year, as they simultaneously grow in relevance, popularity, and $$$

[Blake]

Theres busts and steals in college recruiting just like the NFL draft. And just like finding those great UDFA's, you can find great walk ons.

like Tech, Potts was a 3-4 star recruit while Sheffield was a walk on.

[The Gemini Method]

It really is a crapshoot...for ever Reggie Bush, Julio Jones, and Michael Crabtree--you have the David Ausberrys and Whitney Lewis of the recruiting world...

[The Gemini Method]

Yeah, it's a habit from following SEC football that's also meant as a kind of slap in the face of Gamecocks football. You see, the real USC is in LA, and the other little school with the little e at the end of their acronym is South Carolina. It pisses them off to no end. Pretty much every fan base in the SEC refers to them as such.

Sorry if it offends you, but the point is to offend them and not you :lol

I'm only joking, Symple...

There is a misconception though with USC--that it is okay to call it SC...that has never sat well for a good majority of the fans and the school itself. But, it is after all, a nickname and really shouldn't be looked at with such disdain.

[mookie2001]

I really don't understand the point here

So and so was a 2 star and became and all American!


That's why I don't care about rankings?

[mookie2001]

I'll roll the dice with the top players in the state and you can bet on the guys from alamo heights and westlake

[K-State Spur]

and yet BSU's rankings haven't budged.

also, did you read the original article? all the NCG participants in the last 5 years had top 10 average recruiting classes, and most top 10 recruiting colleges went to a NCG. that speaks volumes, for Rivals anyways

Also I'm sure these recruiting sites get better each year, as they simultaneously grow in relevance, popularity, and $$$

You give them too much credit. It's not hard to predict that the traditional powers will land the big time recruits and still be there in 5 years.

Without any scouting/analysis whatsoever of their incoming players, I am going to predict that the 2015 BCS will contain at least some combination of these schools: Florida, Texas, USC, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Alabama, Penn State, Nebraska, LSU. Want to bet against me?

Recruiting rankings (almost) never predict the rise of lower programs or the fall of traditional powers. They typically follow it.

NOBODY is hiring guys off these recruiting services to be recruiting coordinators/assistant coaches. To me, that speaks volumes.

[Girasuck]

top recruiting teams usually get 3 years out of their best players, and less than 3 years of them as starters, then they leave for the NFL.

BSU usually gets 5 years out of it's players, with most red-shirting as freshman. those 2 extra years being coached up and learning the system are very valuable.

This is an excellent point. It's the same way with Utah. We have a ton of 5th year seniors. It really does speak to the coaching staffs at both schools and just how good of a job they do. We get the leftover recruits and turn them into NFL type players. The big schools get the best and just ride their coattails until they leave.

[vander]

You give them too much credit. It's not hard to predict that the traditional powers will land the big time recruits and still be there in 5 years.

Without any scouting/analysis whatsoever of their incoming players, I am going to predict that the 2015 BCS will contain at least some combination of these schools: Florida, Texas, USC, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Alabama, Penn State, Nebraska, LSU. Want to bet against me?

Recruiting rankings (almost) never predict the rise of lower programs or the fall of traditional powers. They typically follow it.

NOBODY is hiring guys off these recruiting services to be recruiting coordinators/assistant coaches. To me, that speaks volumes.

well, I think that this is much less true of the future than of the past. and when it comes to hiring practices, both industries have plenty of nepotism and Who-knows-who

[K-State Spur]

well, I think that this is much less true of the future than of the past. and when it comes to hiring practices, both industries have plenty of nepotism and Who-knows-who

Most of rivals top 'scouts' are writers and website developers.

Look at their qualifications - it's not a plethora of football experience where only nepotism is keeping them out.

It's a bunch of guys who just look at the offer list/hype surrounding various recruits and then rank them accordingly, patting themselves on the back for their great prediction skills after the fact.

No big deal, it's fun to follow, but it's not worth the paper that the electronic rankings aren't printed on.

[mookie2001]

Kstate why are you a repeating yourself?

In Texas, when a high school player in a good district, dominates the competition, it makes the papers, the news, messageboards, radio

rivals.com isn the only way to know the top high school players, this is Texas

I get it, you trust bill snyder and you would rather have your 10 class than the rivals top 25 players in the state