StoneBuddha
02-08-2010, 04:42 PM
For those who don't have insider... a tidbit from today's Per Diem
"In fact, the top-eight Western team most likely to miss the postseason isn't any of the seven I mentioned above: It's San Antonio. Say this to anyone in the league, and you'll immediately be countered with the absolute dead certainty of the Spurs finishing in the top eight, and there's a logic behind this: San Antonio has a superior point differential (plus-4.7 per game) and a 2½ game lead over the Rockets in the West. Combine that with the expectation of the Spurs' patented second-half surge, and they'd seem a lock.
Unfortunately, the Spurs haven't cashed in on their favorable early schedule. San Antonio is 29-20, but with its scoring margin it should be 34-15; that's the league's greatest negative disparity and could come back to bite the team in the second half of the season. The thing everyone misses about the Spurs is that they have only 12 home games left, and in addition their opponents' strength is among the league's most difficult over the final 33 games. As a result, the Playoff Odds give the Spurs a 71.4 percent chance of making the postseason -- solid, but far from a lock.
Still, the Spurs project to finish the season with 47 wins ... and the Rockets to come in ninth with 43. That yawning four-game gap is the greatest we've seen all season in the Western Conference projection, and that's why the East looks like a better race Monday."
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-100208
"In fact, the top-eight Western team most likely to miss the postseason isn't any of the seven I mentioned above: It's San Antonio. Say this to anyone in the league, and you'll immediately be countered with the absolute dead certainty of the Spurs finishing in the top eight, and there's a logic behind this: San Antonio has a superior point differential (plus-4.7 per game) and a 2½ game lead over the Rockets in the West. Combine that with the expectation of the Spurs' patented second-half surge, and they'd seem a lock.
Unfortunately, the Spurs haven't cashed in on their favorable early schedule. San Antonio is 29-20, but with its scoring margin it should be 34-15; that's the league's greatest negative disparity and could come back to bite the team in the second half of the season. The thing everyone misses about the Spurs is that they have only 12 home games left, and in addition their opponents' strength is among the league's most difficult over the final 33 games. As a result, the Playoff Odds give the Spurs a 71.4 percent chance of making the postseason -- solid, but far from a lock.
Still, the Spurs project to finish the season with 47 wins ... and the Rockets to come in ninth with 43. That yawning four-game gap is the greatest we've seen all season in the Western Conference projection, and that's why the East looks like a better race Monday."
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-100208