Koolaid_Man
02-11-2010, 12:41 AM
While I realize this sort of analysis may be over some of your heads I think it's needed to put a rest to all the superfluous bullshit being presented in light of the Lakers recent success.
(compliments of Tom Ziller)
Kobe has been comfortable his entire career soaking up 32-35 percent of his team's possessions while on the floor. That's where he is now, and while his efficiency is off peak (110 offensive rating this season, as opposed to 115 last year) it's not bad by any means. Further, over his career Kobe's efficiency hasn't improved with lower usage. Take a look at the chart, and concentrate (for now) on the right side.
http://i9.photobucket.com/albums/a68/Koolbreezey/pauvskobe-tz-600.jpg
Since the 1999-2000 season, Kobe's usage has fluctuated between "really high" and "really really high." In the highest of the high, his efficiency has been at his best. Kobe doesn't need quality teammates soaking up possessions in order to produce at a high, efficient level.
Pau does, as you can see in the graph. Look at Pau's line of linear regression -- historically, the higher Pau's usage, the lower his efficiency. By dramatic levels. This isn't nearly as clean as it looks; Pau's high-usage seasons, after all, came in Memphis, where he was the centerpiece of an offensively underwhelming unit. Pau's best efficiency -- last season and this season -- has come in L.A. How much of that shift can be attributed to the lowered usage rates versus the better supporting cast? That's hard to tell. And that's at the crux of any argument that Pau specifically should see the ball more. If his increased efficiency is due to the smaller role relative to his Memphis days, an increase in possessions now would hurt his efficiency; at some point, there's a break-even between Pau's overall superior efficiency and Kobe's basically stable level. Or, at some point, it won't be in the Lakers' best interest to give Pau the ball more, because Kobe will be able to get more points out of each subsequent possession.
http://nba.fanhouse.com/2010/02/02/kobe-vs-pau-the-problem-is-elsewhere/
(compliments of Tom Ziller)
Kobe has been comfortable his entire career soaking up 32-35 percent of his team's possessions while on the floor. That's where he is now, and while his efficiency is off peak (110 offensive rating this season, as opposed to 115 last year) it's not bad by any means. Further, over his career Kobe's efficiency hasn't improved with lower usage. Take a look at the chart, and concentrate (for now) on the right side.
http://i9.photobucket.com/albums/a68/Koolbreezey/pauvskobe-tz-600.jpg
Since the 1999-2000 season, Kobe's usage has fluctuated between "really high" and "really really high." In the highest of the high, his efficiency has been at his best. Kobe doesn't need quality teammates soaking up possessions in order to produce at a high, efficient level.
Pau does, as you can see in the graph. Look at Pau's line of linear regression -- historically, the higher Pau's usage, the lower his efficiency. By dramatic levels. This isn't nearly as clean as it looks; Pau's high-usage seasons, after all, came in Memphis, where he was the centerpiece of an offensively underwhelming unit. Pau's best efficiency -- last season and this season -- has come in L.A. How much of that shift can be attributed to the lowered usage rates versus the better supporting cast? That's hard to tell. And that's at the crux of any argument that Pau specifically should see the ball more. If his increased efficiency is due to the smaller role relative to his Memphis days, an increase in possessions now would hurt his efficiency; at some point, there's a break-even between Pau's overall superior efficiency and Kobe's basically stable level. Or, at some point, it won't be in the Lakers' best interest to give Pau the ball more, because Kobe will be able to get more points out of each subsequent possession.
http://nba.fanhouse.com/2010/02/02/kobe-vs-pau-the-problem-is-elsewhere/