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DPG21920
02-16-2010, 07:28 PM
I wanted to take a look at next year's cap situation and how it might be affecting this year's trade deadline and how the team decides to move forward. I am not sure what the FO is thinking, but I for one would be surprised if they thought this team had a legit shot to win a title this year.

With that in mind...(I am not factoring in Cap Holds)

Does that mean the Duncan era and the championship window has slammed shut? If so, what does that mean for this year, next year and the year after?

Next year, if all options are picked up, the Spurs will have $56,088,011 in salary committed to only 7 players:

Duncan: $18,835,381
Parker: $13,650,000
Jefferson: $15,200,000
McDyess: $4,860,000
Hill: $854,389
Blair: $918,000
Hairston: $854,389

This seems to be the most likely situation if Dice is not moved because Jefferson is not going to opt out and the Spurs would not have paid Malik this year just to let him go next year when they will actually need cheap wing players.

The question is though, with the team seemingly having no shot at a title as is, what can they do to make sure they do next year?

Does it make sense to extend Manu under these circumstances? If not, are the Spurs actively shopping him?

The Spurs will have the MLE next year and it will likely be used on Tiago Splitter if he wants to play in the NBA. That will put the salaries at ~61M with 8 players next season. If you factor in extending Manu for around 10M, that puts it at ~71M with 9 players and no legit shot at a title.

Is this the best course of action seeing as the Spurs will have $28,911,082 in salaries in 2012 with all options picked up? They will have only 5 players under contract if all the options are picked up in 2012:

Duncan: $21,164,619
McDyess: $5,220,00 (Only guaranteed 2.64M)
Hill: $1,540,463
Blair: $986,000 (Only guaranteed 500K)
Hairston: $1,091,000 (Qualifying Offer)

If the Spurs are rebuilding, you would have to believe they don't keep Dice. That would cut salaries by 2.6M. If Blair is healthy, you would assume they keep him because that is a great contract. Depending on how Malik does, he could be kept or traded or released. You could definitely imagine TP being extended, but would he want to stay if the team is not contending?

That is Tim's presumed last year. The question is with these numbers in mind, how does the FO proceed from now until then? Is there no chance for another title with Tim? Do they start to rebuild and how? Or is there a way to go for one more shot?

Muser
02-16-2010, 07:32 PM
It depends if Tims game has regressed any more in 2012, if he still plays like he can now then I see the FO going all out for his last year. Hopefully with better results than RJ.

dbestpro
02-16-2010, 07:35 PM
Manu will not be signed by anyone for 10 mil per year. Look for 6-7 mil for 2-3 year contract (3rd year partial guarantee).

DPG21920
02-16-2010, 07:36 PM
It depends if Tims game has regressed any more in 2012, if he still plays like he can now then I see the FO going all out for his last year. Hopefully with better results than RJ.

So do you re-sign Manu and take the risk that Tim can continue to play as a #1 option on a championship team? What about giving Manu the money he will likely command when he seems to be a shell of his former self? Can he still be a part of a legit "big 3"?

Shifty
02-16-2010, 07:38 PM
I say RJ mans up and opts out :greedy

Problem solved.

Allanon
02-16-2010, 07:39 PM
Does it make sense to extend Manu under these circumstances? If not, are the Spurs actively shopping him?

Manu is the key to everything Spurs this year. With the Spurs at the cap already without Manu, they have no way of significantly upgrading the roster outside of dumping RJ's expiring. If Manu decides to leave, the door slams shut on the Spurs because they can't replace him.

With RJ, they won't get max value for RJ until close to the February deadline so that means Nov to Jan with just Tony, Tim and RJ...will they be out of the playoff race by then? And even with a nice trade for RJ, it will still only be a Big 3...can a Big 3 contend with the Mavs/Lakers/Nuggets?

With everything he has said, I think it's a very real possibility that Manu walks this summer so I think trading Manu is the most logical choice in continuing this Spurs run.

Muser
02-16-2010, 07:43 PM
So do you re-sign Manu and take the risk that Tim can continue to play as a #1 option on a championship team? What about giving Manu the money he will likely command when he seems to be a shell of his former self? Can he still be a part of a legit "big 3"?


If he's going to keep playing sub-par then I don't extend him. It's the sentimental value of Manu retiring a Spur against giving Tim the Best chance at number 5 before he retires.

ElNono
02-16-2010, 09:37 PM
I could be wrong, but I don't think Manu will fetch $10M/year. With the Spurs or anyhwere else. I would put his value somewhere between $8M and $9M tops...

DPG21920
02-16-2010, 09:40 PM
I could be wrong, but I don't think Manu will fetch $10M/year. With the Spurs or anyhwere else. I would put his value somewhere between $8M and $9M tops...

Maybe, I can see that. But that does not really change the situation though.