Stimulus Data Reveals Success

[Nbadan]

The truth is trickling out despite the wing-nut spin...

Judging Stimulus by Job Data Reveals Success
By DAVID LEONHARDT
Published: February 16, 2010
WASHINGTON

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2010/02/17/business/economy/17leonhardt_graphic/17leonhardt_graphic-popup.jpg


Let’s say this bill had started spending money within a matter of weeks and had rapidly helped the economy. Let’s also imagine it was large enough to have had a huge impact on jobs — employing something like two million people who would otherwise be unemployed right now.

If that had happened, what would the economy look like today?

Well, it would look almost exactly as it does now. Because those nice descriptions of the stimulus that I just gave aren’t hypothetical. They are descriptions of the actual bill.

Just look at the outside evaluations of the stimulus. Perhaps the best-known economic research firms are IHS Global Insight, Macroeconomic Advisers and Moody’s Economy.com. They all estimate that the bill has added 1.6 million to 1.8 million jobs so far and that its ultimate impact will be roughly 2.5 million jobs. The Congressional Budget Office, an independent agency, considers these estimates to be conservative.

*snip*

In the early months of last year, spending by state and local governments was falling rapidly, as was tax revenue. In the spring, tax revenue continued to drop, yet spending jumped — during the very time when state and local officials were finding out roughly how much stimulus money they would be receiving. This is the money that has kept teachers, police officers, health care workers and firefighters employed.

Then there is corporate spending. It surged in the final months of last year. Mark Zandi of Economy.com (who has advised the McCain campaign and Congressional Democrats) says that the Dec. 31 expiration of a tax credit for corporate investment, which was part of the stimulus, is a big reason.

The story isn’t quite as clear-cut with consumer spending, as skeptics note. Its sharp plunge stopped before President Obama signed the stimulus into law exactly one year ago. But the billions of dollars in tax cuts, food stamps and jobless benefits in the stimulus have still made a difference. Since February, aggregate wages and salaries have fallen, while consumer spending has risen. The difference between the two — some $100 billion — has essentially come from stimulus checks.

The second argument in the bill’s favor is the history of financial crises. They have wreaked terrible damage on economies. Indeed, the damage tended to be even worse than what we have suffered.

Around the world over the last century, the typical financial crisis caused the jobless rate to rise for almost five years, according to work by the economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff. On that timeline, our rate would still be rising in early 2012. Even that may be optimistic, given that the recent crisis was so bad. As Ben Bernanke, Henry Paulson (Republicans both) and many others warned in 2008, this recession had the potential to become a depression.

Yet the jobless rate is now expected to begin falling consistently by the end of this year.

For that, the stimulus package, flaws and all, deserves a big heaping of credit. “It prevented things from getting much worse than they otherwise would have been,” Nariman Behravesh, Global Insight’s chief economist, says. “I think everyone would have to acknowledge that’s a good thing.”

NY Times (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/17/business/economy/17leonhardt.html?sudsredirect=true)

It's not completely fixed yet with an unemployment rate above 9.0% but stimulus deniers are turning out to be worse lairs than birthers and global climate change deniers...

[DMX7]

The liberal media with it's facts and hocus pocus science.

[greyforest]

unemployment rate

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Current_Population_Survey#1994_CPS_Revisions

[George Gervin's Afro]

The problem lies in the fact that Obama didn't fix the conomy within 12 months.... We all know that turning around the economy is easy and usually only takes a couple of weeks to do it..

[SouthernFried]

Yes...it's a great success!!!

[coyotes_geek]

Not exactly sure that it's all that good of an idea politically to brag about how successful the stimulus is with unemployment still at 10%, but whatever.............

[101A]

Remember when Bush got in jet, flew onto an aircraft carrier, and declared "Mission
Accomplished" in Iraq?

The Obama administration arguing the stimulus has worked is the same thing.

[George Gervin's Afro]

remember when bush got in jet, flew onto an aircraft carrier, and declared "mission
accomplished" in iraq?

The obama administration arguing the stimulus has worked is the same thing.

+1

[coyotes_geek]

Remember when Bush got in jet, flew onto an aircraft carrier, and declared "Mission
Accomplished" in Iraq?

The Obama administration arguing the stimulus has worked is the same thing.

Pretty much. Except Obama has a chance to actually get away with it. The economy was going to get better at some point regardless of what Bush, Obama or anyone else did. As long as Obama is around when that finally happens, he'll get to take credit for it. Presidents always get the credit or the blame for what happens, even though the economy is beyond the government's control.

[boutons_deux]

"economy was going to get better at some point regardless"

It's hard to impossible to prove a negative, but the economy was very probably going to get a lot worse and stay bad for much longer than without the stimulus, of which only about half has been spent.

"the economy is beyond the government's control"

not true.

Repugs blocked the effort by a majority of the states to stop predatory lending which greatly contributed to Liar's Loans and stated-income bullshit, and toxic mortgages. Mortgage rules were not applied to lenders' ability to repay their mortgages.

Repugs SEC and various regulatory agencies "let the market self-regulate" which always fails, and did.

Annulling Glass-Steagal turned retail banks into investment bank casino players.

The Fed is inflated the bubble with effectively zero interest rates, even Greenspan admits that now.

Cutting taxes, a govt action, gave the super-wealthy $800B in liquidity that went chasing returns by dumping it into the non-regulating mortgage lending market.

Starting and botching two wars while cutting taxes inflated the deficit (after the Repugs inherited a 1/4 $T surplus).

etc, etc. There were plenty of (in)actions by the Repugs that could have limited the Banksters' Great Depression to just another business down cycle.

Medicare Part D and Medicare Advantage are failures.

Repugs lets corps repatriate $300B in overseas profits at 5% tax rate rather than full corporate rate.

The Repugs fucked up everything they touched and/or refused to manage. They simply aren't interested in governing the government, because they hate government.

[hater]

lies!

impeach him!

[hater]

The problem lies in the fact that Obama didn't fix the conomy within 12 months.... We all know that turning around the economy is easy and usually only takes a couple of weeks to do it..

:lmao

[EmptyMan]

Those graphs really comfort the actual people losing their jobs braaaaaah.

Keep up the good work.

[hater]

Remember when Bush got in jet, flew onto an aircraft carrier, and declared "Mission
Accomplished" in Iraq?

The Obama administration arguing the stimulus has worked is the same thing.

wrong. the Obama admin is saying it's working, similar to Bush admin saying the war in Iraq is going "well"

misison accomplished has not been declared by Obama admin

[clambake]

isn't this where we wonder how much money was spent so he could land on that boat?

[spursncowboys]

The problem lies in the fact that Obama didn't fix the conomy within 12 months.... We all know that turning around the economy is easy and usually only takes a couple of weeks to do it..
So it is the govt. that fixed everything? Not the actual citizens who actually had and continue to have jobs?

[johnsmith]

The economy is not 'fixed'.....nor is it better then it was a year ago.....


That is all.

[101A]

wrong. the Obama admin is saying it's working, similar to Bush admin saying the war in Iraq is going "well"

misison accomplished has not been declared by Obama admin


People's reactions are not going to be nuanced on this; terminal statements or not. If the administration is claiming any type of success, with a ~10% unemployment rate; they are going to take it on the chin. Impressive graphs notwithstanding.

[boutons_deux]

"So it is the govt. that fixed everything"

straw man. Who's claiming everything is fixed?


"Not the actual citizens who actually had and continue to have jobs"

how did, or how could, the job-ful "fix" the still-broken economy? The job-ful have paid down their debts, are saving, and are not consuming, which is badly needed as stimulus to get the consumer-driven, 70%, economy going. The job-ful are MIA as consumers.

The deficit spending is an attempt to make up what the consumers aren't spending.

[johnsmith]

The industry I work in was supposed to be one of the major benefactors of the stimulus.......it's not working.......

Nor am I blaming it on Obama, the Dems, or the Repubs........they're all fucking idiots as far as I'm concerned.

[ElNono]

http://m2.wnymedia.net/files/2009/08/Borat_Great_Success.jpg

[coyotes_geek]

"economy was going to get better at some point regardless"

It's hard to impossible to prove a negative, but the economy was very probably going to get a lot worse and stay bad for much longer than without the stimulus, of which only about half has been spent.

How bad things would have gotten and how long it would have taken to recover are debatable. The economy eventually getting better under either scenario is not.


"the economy is beyond the government's control"

not true.

Repugs blocked the effort by a majority of the states to stop predatory lending which greatly contributed to Liar's Loans and stated-income bullshit, and toxic mortgages. Mortgage rules were not applied to lenders' ability to repay their mortgages.

Repugs SEC and various regulatory agencies "let the market self-regulate" which always fails, and did.

Annulling Glass-Steagal turned retail banks into investment bank casino players.

The Fed is inflated the bubble with effectively zero interest rates, even Greenspan admits that now.

Cutting taxes, a govt action, gave the super-wealthy $800B in liquidity that went chasing returns by dumping it into the non-regulating mortgage lending market.

Starting and botching two wars while cutting taxes inflated the deficit (after the Repugs inherited a 1/4 $T surplus).

etc, etc. There were plenty of (in)actions by the Repugs that could have limited the Banksters' Great Depression to just another business down cycle.

Medicare Part D and Medicare Advantage are failures.

Repugs lets corps repatriate $300B in overseas profits at 5% tax rate rather than full corporate rate.

The Repugs fucked up everything they touched and/or refused to manage. They simply aren't interested in governing the government, because they hate government.

Yawn. The generic boutons rant placing all the blame on the republicans. Yet convienently ignoring pertinant facts like how the Glass Stengal repeals passed with overwhelming democratic support and were signed by a democratic president. Or how congressional democrats killed efforts to reign in the mortgage industry because they didn't want low income families (otherwise known as people who couldn't afford mortgages) to stop getting mortgages. Or how democrats joined with republicans in confirming Greenspan every single time he came up for a new term.

Nor does anything in your rant illustrate how government action alone can eliminate economic cycles.

[Winehole23]

When you read that foreclosure filings fell 10% (http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/real-estate/foreclosures-fall-10-in-january-but-remain-15-higher-than-a-y/19353829/) in January from December, don't get too excited. According to Realty Trac (http://www.realtytrac.com/contentmanagement/pressrelease.aspx?channelid=9&itemid=8533), foreclosures are 15% higher than they were a year ago and there's likely to be an increase in foreclosure activity in the next few months, as the government's crappy mortgage modification program (http://moneywatch.bnet.com/economic-news/blog/financial-decoder/foreclosure-fiasco/1232/) continues to fail.

James J. Saccacio, CEO of RealtyTrac noted that "if history repeats itself we will see a surge in the numbers over the next few months as lenders foreclose on delinquent loans where neither the existing loan modification programs or the new short sale and deed-in-lieu of foreclosure alternatives works." In other words, another storm is a-brewing in the housing market.

The continued reluctance of banks to tackle the foreclosure problem is astounding. There's near-universal agreement that principal reduction is the key, but we are left with lame programs, like this one (http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/home/permalink/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20100210007040&newsLang=en) announced yesterday by CitiMortgage. The so-called "strategic non-foreclosure (http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/02/strategic-non-foreclosure-becomes-official-policy/)" continues the "extend and pretend" policy that bank lenders have pursued over the past year.

From the banks' point of view, the longer they keep you on the hook, the better it is for them. Avoiding the mess of foreclosure allows them to keep the fictitious valuations on their books and in this new Citi program, ensures that some of the costs of carrying the dud loan get transferred to the borrower, who in all likelihood, will end up defaulting. Some experts believe that a new round of foreclosures could trigger a double-dip in housing prices (http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/real-estate/double-dip-in-home-prices-is-likely-in-2010/19352127/).

As if the foreclosure mess weren't enough to keep you up at night, today we're also digesting a new report (http://cop.senate.gov/documents/cop-021110-report.pdf) from the Congressional Oversight Panel (that's Elizabeth Warren & Co, the TARP watchdogs) about the looming storm in the commercial real estate market. The report predicts a wave of losses, totaling $200-$300 billion, from commercial real estate loans could "trigger economic damage that could touch the lives of nearly every American."

Here's how the dire analysis plays out: "when commercial properties fail, it creates a downward spiral of economic contraction: job losses; deteriorating store fronts, office buildings and apartments; and the failure of the banks serving those communities." The report reminds us that the failure of community banks would further restrict small business access to capital, just the economic recovery is occurring.

Don't put away those shovels just yet - two potential storms could be coming.

http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2010/02/11/business/econwatch/entry6198016.shtml

[Winehole23]

Trial modifications and other delays have kept many of those mortgages out of foreclosure, but by the end of this year, 2.4 million borrowers are expected to lose their homes, said Celia Chen, a housing economist at Economy.com.

That would be up from 2.1 million foreclosures and short sales last year and five times the annual numbers earlier in the decade.http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-mortgage-mods17-2010feb17,0,7573498.story

[angrydude]

lol.

the economy is still in the shit. nothing has changed.

All Obama did was pour it a few more drinks to keep the buzz alive.

[coyotes_geek]

http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2010/02/11/business/econwatch/entry6198016.shtml

Between that and this (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100217/ap_on_bi_ge/us_fed_economy) any boasting about the success of the stimulus program runs a high risk of backfiring.

[George Gervin's Afro]

Between that and this (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100217/ap_on_bi_ge/us_fed_economy) any boasting about the success of the stimulus program runs a high risk of backfiring.

Hence 101A's 'this could be Obama's Mission Accomplished' moment.

[jack sommerset]

LOL@ Stimulus fixed the economy
LOL@ Obama saving us from the 2nd great depression...THE GREAT DEPRESSION
LOL@ still campaigning
LOL@ only 7 percent americans thinking the stimulus bill created jobs
LOL@ Obama telling us to pass this bill now or we will go above 8 percent unemployment.

LOL@ Obama dems!

[coyotes_geek]

Hence 101A's 'this could be Obama's Mission Accomplished' moment.

Hence my response to 101A earlier in this thread where I agreed with him.

[boutons_deux]

"Glass Stengal repeals passed with overwhelming democratic support and were signed by a democratic president."

Repugs controlled Congress. Clinton was beaten to a pulp by Repug witch hunting. The Dems went along with the G-S repeal, like they did with the Iraq war, but it was the Repugs who iniatiated and wrote the bills (esp sneaking in the "forbid regulation of derivatives market")

The Dems (and esp not ACORN) didn't force any bank or non-bank lender to make any mortgage payments. Just like the lenders wanted to lend and did, they don't want to lend now because the federal mortgage requirements are being enforced now, but not under the "free market" business friendly Repugs.

"Nor does anything in your rant illustrate how government action alone can eliminate economic cycles"

BFD, straw man. I didn't say the govt could, only that govt actions could mitigate the peaks and troughs, which is what Magic Negro has been trying to do with counter-cyclical govt deficits. Now, GFY.

[coyotes_geek]

"Glass Stengal repeals passed with overwhelming democratic support and were signed by a democratic president."

Repugs controlled Congress. Clinton was beaten to a pulp by Repug witch hunting. The Dems went along with the G-S repeal, like they did with the Iraq war, but it was the Repugs who iniatiated and wrote the bills (esp sneaking in the "forbid regulation of derivatives market")

The Dems (and esp not ACORN) didn't force any bank or non-bank lender to make any mortgage payments. Just like the lenders wanted to lend and did, they don't want to lend now because the federal mortgage requirements are being enforced now, but not under the "free market" business friendly Repugs.

So if the republicans controlled congress back then don't they deserve the credit for that quarter trillion dollar surplus you brought up earlier? What say you, you hypocrite?


"Nor does anything in your rant illustrate how government action alone can eliminate economic cycles"

BFD, straw man. I didn't say the govt could, only that govt actions could mitigate the peaks and troughs, which is what Magic Negro has been trying to do with counter-cyclical govt deficits. Now, GFY.

So you're admitting I'm right. The economy is beyond the government's control. I'm glad we've got that settled.

[George Gervin's Afro]

LOL@ Stimulus fixed the economy
LOL@ Obama saving us from the 2nd great depression...THE GREAT DEPRESSION
LOL@ still campaigning
LOL@ only 7 percent americans thinking the stimulus bill created jobs
LOL@ Obama telling us to pass this bill now or we will go above 8 percent unemployment.

LOL@ Obama dems!

which poll is that jack? I heard on Fox news this morning about this poll..I'm assuming you aren't parroting what you've heard so let us know which poll you are referring to..

[boutons_deux]

"So if the republicans controlled congress back then don't they deserve the credit for that quarter trillion dollar surplus you brought up earlier"

they weren't running the govt, were they? Repugs don't govern government, they misgovern, seen over the 8 years of Repug _EXEC_.

"economy is beyond the government's control"

straw man. I didn't say that. I said government polices influence/mitigate economic cycles.

Repugs, Exec + Congress, ran up huge REPUG deficits (which they now say are bad) by
1) two bullshit wars
2) tax cuts of a few $T ($800B alone for super-wealthy's estate tax cuts)

while there was a net loss in jobs (income taxes) on their watch.

[clambake]

which poll is that jack? I heard on Fox news this morning about this poll..I'm assuming you aren't parroting what you've heard so let us know which poll you are referring to..

haven't you heard?

he doesn't cruise for polls.

he cruises for poles.

[coyotes_geek]

"So if the republicans controlled congress back then don't they deserve the credit for that quarter trillion dollar surplus you brought up earlier"

they weren't running the govt, were they? Repugs don't govern government, they misgovern, seen over the 8 years of Repug _EXEC_.

Evidently you think they were running enough of the government to get glass steagle repeals pushed through. Those poor democrats were all just so overwhelmed and made to be unwilling accomplices, or so your story goes. Yet when the topic changes to budget surpluses, all of a sudden all that republican influence seems to just magically disappear. Interesting.


"economy is beyond the government's control"

straw man. I didn't say that. I said government polices influence/mitigate economic cycles.

Right. I'm the one that said the economy is beyond the government's control. You deliberately quoted my statement and said "not true". Now you're backtracking.


Repugs, Exec + Congress, ran up huge REPUG deficits (which they now say are bad) by
1) two bullshit wars
2) tax cuts of a few $T ($800B alone for super-wealthy's estate tax cuts)

while there was a net loss in jobs (income taxes) on their watch.

blah blah blah repugs blah blah blah magic negro blah blah blah banksters blah blah blah...............

[jack sommerset]

which poll is that jack? I heard on Fox news this morning about this poll..I'm assuming you aren't parroting what you've heard so let us know which poll you are referring to..

It's common knowledge Obama said the unemployment rate would not go above 8.5 if we passed this stimulus bill. Common knowledge that Obama said "No Earmarks" and he had over 8,000 in it. Common knowledge he said he saved us from a depression. A FUCKING DEPRESSION! It's common knowledge we lost 4 million jobs but he says he created or saved 2,000,000 but his own website says 500,000. I think HIS speaker said 1 million Sunday. All bullshit.:lol

He is still campaigning. The liar said again, just last week, he wants to work with the repugs but this morning he is making fun of them, laughing at them. Obama is the joke.

Son, read a newspaper, watch C-Span,CNN, NBC,ABC,FOX, listen to a radio show, talk to your friends,talk to co-workers, search the web. This is not made up shit, son. Sure you will have shows favor one over the other but eventually most of this stuff gets covered. It's no secret he is a liar. It's no secret he claims how great his stimulus package is working. It's not secret most people don't believe him. It's no secret Obama is losing his strong hold on america.

LOL@ George... He is soooooo confused!

[jack sommerset]

Democrat Senator Bayh said he would work until the last minute he is in office. If he can create 1, that's ONE job, that will be more than Obama has created in 6 months!!!! :lol

Oh yeah, the stimulus bill was a HUGE success!

[clambake]

any luck, jack?

[Nbadan]

Republicans don't give a shit about the 9.7% unemployment rate, nor the human face behind that stat, hell, they want to cut their benefits....all they really care about is that they think they can make it stick against Obama...

[George Gervin's Afro]

It's common knowledge Obama said the unemployment rate would not go above 8.5 if we passed this stimulus bill. Common knowledge that Obama said "No Earmarks" and he had over 8,000 in it. Common knowledge he said he saved us from a depression. A FUCKING DEPRESSION! It's common knowledge we lost 4 million jobs but he says he created or saved 2,000,000 but his own website says 500,000. I think HIS speaker said 1 million Sunday. All bullshit.:lol

He is still campaigning. The liar said again, just last week, he wants to work with the repugs but this morning he is making fun of them, laughing at them. Obama is the joke.

Son, read a newspaper, watch C-Span,CNN, NBC,ABC,FOX, listen to a radio show, talk to your friends,talk to co-workers, search the web. This is not made up shit, son. Sure you will have shows favor one over the other but eventually most of this stuff gets covered. It's no secret he is a liar. It's no secret he claims how great his stimulus package is working. It's not secret most people don't believe him. It's no secret Obama is losing his strong hold on america.

LOL@ George... He is soooooo confused!

We know jack..you'd vote for a liar to beat the liar..but,but,but you hate liars..:lmao


jack since i like you so much i am going to fill you in on something..come real close so no one else hears..the economy is going to get better in '10 and Obama is going to get credit....:lmao

[Nbadan]

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-mortgage-mods17-2010feb17,0,7573498.story

no one is saying we are out of the woods, but at least we can see the trail now, and it's not tax-cuts and more corporate deregulation....

[Nbadan]

...the trickle down, rising tide lifts all boats philosophy has proven to be a complete failure, but that's exactly what the GOP wants to do...


As a record amount of US citizens are struggling to get by, many of the largest corporations are experiencing record-breaking profits, and CEO's are receiving record-breaking bonuses. How could this be happening, how did we get to this point?

The Economic Elite have escalated their attack on US workers over the past few years, however, this attack began to build intensity in the 1970s. In 1970, CEOs made $25 for every $1 the average worker made. Due to technological advancements, production and profit levels exploded from 1970 - 2000. With the lion's share of increased profits going to the CEO's, this pay ratio dramatically rose to $90 for CEOs to $1 for the average worker.

As ridiculous as that seems, an in-depth study in 2004 on the explosion of CEO pay revealed that, including stock options and other benefits, CEO pay is more accurately $500 to $1.

Paul Buchheit, from DePaul University, revealed, "From 1980 to 2006 the richest 1% of America tripled their after-tax percentage of our nation's total income, while the bottom 90% have seen their share drop over 20%." Robert Freeman added, "Between 2002 and 2006, it was even worse: an astounding three-quarters of all the economy's growth was captured by the top 1%." .......(more)

See, Republicans love income redistribution, as long as its from the bottom-up...

[Wild Cobra]

Remember when Bush got in jet, flew onto an aircraft carrier, and declared "Mission
Accomplished" in Iraq?

The Obama administration arguing the stimulus has worked is the same thing.
LOL...

It's even worse, because the banner was for that Aircraft Carrier's mission. Mot the war. In this case, the democrats are declaring the stimulus worked.

How does creating more government worker jobs help the economy when it's going to require even more tax revenue to support them?

[Wild Cobra]

LOL@ Stimulus fixed the economy
LOL@ Obama saving us from the 2nd great depression...THE GREAT DEPRESSION
LOL@ still campaigning
LOL@ only 7 percent americans thinking the stimulus bill created jobs
LOL@ Obama telling us to pass this bill now or we will go above 8 percent unemployment.

LOL@ Obama dems!
No shit.

I'll bet the economy would have been better if our government said "No stimulus" and "no changes in the tax code."

Then, businesses would know how to calculate the future of their companies, and not be scare to put people back to work.

[jack sommerset]

the economy is going to get better in '10 and Obama is going to get credit....:lmao

From you and other kool-aid drinkers. The smart peeps are going to continue to vote him out. Mass,Virginia, New Jersey and come November, every other state. Then we will really get this country moving into the right direction!!!! A real change is coming, full of hope!

:toast

[Nbadan]

How does creating more government worker jobs help the economy when it's going to require even more tax revenue to support them?

The same way Reagan did perhaps?

More jobs = more taxes...
...less jobs = less taxes...
..less jobs = more costs..

[Nbadan]

From you and other kool-aid drinkers. The smart peeps are going to continue to vote him out. Mass,Virginia, New Jersey and come November, every other state. Then we will really get this country moving into the right direction!!!! A real change is coming, full of hope!

:toast

59 to 41...Scoreboard! :lmao

[Nbadan]

Obama is more Reagan than Reagan..

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/EarlyPresPopOverlay2-thumb-600x450.png


I've been struck for some time by the similarity of circumstance between Presidents Reagan and Obama. Both replaced deeply unpopular predecessors. Both enjoyed significant gains for their party in both houses of Congress. Both faced "worst since the depression" economic circumstances. And each in his own very different ways attempted to reshape government in the early months in office.

With a bit more than 10 months of approval data on Obama, we can now make a more meaningful comparison than was possible at the first 100 days look.

The similarity of approval trajectories is striking for Reagan and Obama. Reagan started lower, but since the 3rd month of office the two have moved along quite similar paths.

Of the ten post-war presidents in the chart, Reagan and Obama currently stand as the two lowest at this point in their first term. (Clinton fell lower early, but was recovering at this point before another decline and rise.) Reagan finished as the second lowest just before his midterm in 1982, ahead of only Truman. It happens that the economy under Reagan also bottomed out in November 1982, the worst possible time for the president and his party.

(I exclude Johnson because of his entry into office after Kennedy's midterm and Ford because he took office just 3 months before the 1974 mid-term. I keep Truman because he assumed the presidency very early in Roosevelt's fourth term, effectively serving the full term.)

Whether Obama continues to look like Reagan seems to me more likely to be driven by the same force-- the economy. While health care reform and Afghanistan will surely play a role in the public's view of Obama, I think the economy remains the most crucial driver of opinion. In this the administration can hope that the upturn in GDP in the third quarter, and the small down-tick in unemployment in November, are signals that the early quarters of 2010 will see further improvements. If so, the Democrats may avoid the terrible conjunction of midterm and economic bottom that cost Republicans 26 seats in the 1982 House elections. And President Obama may not compete with Reagan to see which will be the second most unpopular president at midterm time. But there are no guarantees of this and the parallels remain quite striking.

Pollster (http://www.pollster.com/blogs/obama_as_reagan.php)

[jack sommerset]

59 to 41...Scoreboard! :lmao

The people paid to see the Lakers not the Grizzlies and they listened to folks like Tim Donaghy. They will get it right in the end. Mass sure did, just in time too! Scoreboard!

[spursncowboys]

The same way Reagan did perhaps?

More jobs = more taxes...
...less jobs = less taxes...
..less jobs = more costs..

Reagan said govt. is the problem. BHO said the economy will only recover with the govt's help. :lol

[Wild Cobra]

Reagan said govt. is the problem. BHO said the economy will only recover with the govt's help. :lol
And I agree. The government keeps meddling with us all. If we all knew that the rules would not change at the whim of congress, then we can plan our own part to help recover.