Spurs Playoff +/- from 82games.com

[whottt]

82 Games (http://www.82games.com/playoffs/045PSAS.HTM)


http://www.imagehosting.us/himages/ihnp-415677.jpg

[Solid D]

Nice.

I thought Horry was going to slap Brent Barry after Brent passed that ball to Andre Miller in the last minute of the game. :lol

[Rick Von Braun]

Just a comment on +/- with very few games. They tend to be VERY noisy, and not very accurate when using only with few games. The "glory stats" tend to converge much faster to accurate estimates when having only a couple of games to sample. If the Spurs go deep into the playoffs (increasing the number of games/samples), they can provide a better estimate of player's value for the team.

[whottt]

I can't get the picture I made to work.

BTW Solid...that +/- for Horry? It doesn't include tonights game...his +/- was through the roof tonight.

[whottt]

RVB, I know this is a small sample size...

But Horry's +/- was freakish during the regular season too, not as freakish as it is here...but he's been in the same rotation as everyone else...the man makes a difference that doesn't show up in stats...And this is similar to his regular season performance, at one point late into the season his on court +/- was the highest on the team, and he was a bench player.....Horry's got 5 rings for reason, and he's been replaced on title teams with Karl Malone and Charles Barkley and those teams have failed to win rings...the man is a winner, he just knows how to play the game.

[Karl Mundt]

I think this should end the "Start Nazr, Trade Rasho" and the "Big men who don't have good Roland Ratings (+/-) don't have them because they don't play with Tim Duncan as much as the starters" debates. The difference between Horry and Nazr is really overwhelming and you would have no idea if you just looked at the box score.

[Karl Mundt]

I can't get the picture I made to work.

BTW Solid...that +/- for Horry? It doesn't include tonights game...his +/- was through the roof tonight.

Actually, i think it does include tonight's game. If you look at Parker's minutes, it says he played 100 already. Also, it says it's updated on May 1st.

[Rick Von Braun]

You can pimp Horry all you want... I think Horry's contributions are great (when he is not being lazy in D and rebounds). He was ranked 4th with the Spurs during the regular season (+4.1), altough far distant from Tim (+16.6) and Manu (+15.5).

My point reamins... +/- stats tend to have way more outliers with small sample sizes than standard "glory stats". The larger the sample size, the more accurate the +/- stats.

[T Park]

Rasho Nesterovic played a fantastic ballgame tonight.

The stats wont show it, but he was awesome.

[whottt]

Actually, i think it does include tonight's game. If you look at Parker's minutes, it says he played 100 already. Also, it says it's updated on May 1st.



That picture I posted was from before tonights game...they updated while I was setting it up...his +/- isn't as good as it was before the update...

It dropped from +42 to +35...still a freak total.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Can someone please explain this rating system to me

[Cant_Be_Faded]

My point reamins... +/- stats tend to have way more outliers with small sample sizes than standard "glory stats". The larger the sample size, the more accurate the +/- stats.


this is true for any parametric statistical analysis

duh

[whottt]

Here is the updated graphic from 82games.com

http://www.imagehosting.us/himages/ihnp-415708.jpg

[Cant_Be_Faded]

hey, what exactly is the plus minus all about? Is that like average team performance when on off court etc?

[whottt]

Small sample size or not...

Horry's rating is impressive when you consider that he hasn't been getting that many minutes with Duncan...

The telling one is what has happened to us when he's off the court...

[whottt]

hey, what exactly is the plus minus all about? Is that like average team performance when on off court etc?

Something like that...it's per 48 minutes..on court is how much we are outscoring(or being outscorded by) our opponents by per 48 minutes with a certain player on the court. Off court tells the same thing per 48 with them off the court...and the Net is the total positive or negative impact on court and off court per 48 minutes...


Click on the link to the site...it's awesome site...it's not the be all end all of cutting edge stats....there was really badass site Nikos showed me earlier in the season...but anyway this site is an awesome site that tries to statistically measure what players help their teamates the most, which line ups are the are the best, who is the most clutch, who plays the best together...etc.

[Rick Von Braun]

this is true for any parametric statistical analysis

duh My point was not that that larger sample sizes are better in general, but that +/- stats tend to require larger sample sizes to converge to meaningful estimates. Different stats have different convergence values based on sample size.

BTW, the above property is true for any analysis, including nonparametrical statistics.

[whottt]

But RVB...Horry's got 5 rings....that tends to give more weight to his playoff +/- than anything else if you ask me...put him on a talented championship contending team team and he lifts it just enough....he's done it his entire career.

IMO, if Horry is not the smartest player in the NBA...he's up there in the top 5. He's a very talented player, his versatility is amazing, but he knows he doesn't have the talent(or maybe the stamina) to be a team carrying type guy...so he just sits on it until the right moments, until people forget about it and then boom, and he gets the maximum out of it that way.

I will never forget the Laker game in the finals(I think it was game 2) aganst Philly, where Horry just took over the game and closed it out...He was standing at the top of the key and then he just put it on the floor and took off from about halfway from the FT line to slam it...I was like...WTF? Where the hell has that move been his entire career? He does stuff like that his whole career in the clutch...not just the threes, but everything, blocks, steals, dunks, post up moves, passes, he's even got a bank shot ala Duncan...when he came into the NBA Rudy T said he was gonna be the next Magic...well Horry never developed the consistency(or desire) to be that...but he's always had the skill set...he just lets you forget about it..

[Karl Mundt]

Some other interesting stats from the last 3 games:

Horry:
Offense: When he's on the court, the Spurs score 119.8 points per 100 possessions, and only 86 when he is off the court.
Team Effective FG% goes from 52.4% (on court) to 40.3% (off court).

Udrih:
While the team has scored more when he is off the court, the defense has only received 84.4 points/100 pos.

Barry:
Team Effective FG% is 50.4% when he's on the court as opposed to 43.2% when he's off it.

Nesterovic:
Played 31 minutes so far as opposed to 111 minutes the team has played without him (at center). During his time on the court the team has only allowed 75 points per 100 possessions on an amazing 25.5% EFG%, while allowing 98.2 points on 45.8 EFG% without Rasho. On the other hand, the team scores 17.6 more points/100 pos. and shoots a higher EFG% by 13.2%.

Ginobili:
Oddly enough, the team does pretty much the same with or without Manu in the line up. If anything, it indicates the defense recieves less points while he's on the court while the offense is slightly better. Also, the assisted FG% is 6% higher while he's on the bench. I think this can be safely attributed to the fact he's been playing with the second team a lot during the last two games.

Duncan:
Pretty similiar to Manu, the second Spurs Roland Rating Star hasn't had much of an impact during the first 3 games of the playoffs. While offense is slightly better, the defense recieves less per possession while he's off the court. Another number that sticks out is the fact that opponent's assisted FG percentage is 14% higher when Tim is on the court, meaning a much higher percentage of Denver's field goals have come from assists with Tim in there.

Parker:
Tony has been on the other end of the point guard defense discrepancy: the team recieving 97.3 points with him as the point guard and about 84 points with (more or less) Beno running the point.

Bowen:
Another interesting stat is that Denver scores 7 more points per 100 pos. when Bruce is on the floor. There is a big difference between Spur's assisted FG% though: 13% higher when Bruce is playing.

Robinson:
If you thought Rasho's defensive stats were the team's best, you were wrong: it's Glenn Robinson's :depressed So he's only been on the court for 19 minutes, but during those 19 minutes Denver scored only 73.7 points per 100 possessions on 27.6% EFG.

Mohammed:
Pretty massive difference in rebounding when he's in (54.8% to 49% when he's on the bench) as expected. What's interesting is, while it's expected the defensive stats are somewhat worse with Nazr in there, the offensive stats for the team are through the roof when he is on the bench. I guess Horry has had a great impact on those numbers. :spin It's interesting the whole team is either below +10 points or above -10 points per 100 possessions, the only standouts really do stand out though: Horry at +34.4 and Nazr at -29.2

These are the stats for Denver (hopefully someone can post this as a picture):
http://www.82games.com/playoffs/045PDEN.HTM

What really sticks out is, they don't seem to be getting anything from their bench. Adjusting the playoff roster to Boykins really doesn't seem like a great idea now.