48MoH: Notes from Wayne Winston (Spurs best statistical lineups)

[lurker23]

(After searching through the forum, I didn't see a thread devoted to this. If there already is one, feel free to lock/merge this and point me in the right direction.)

Wayne Winston, who served as a statistical consultant to the Dallas Mavericks for the last nine years, and is the author of Mathletics, was kind enough to explore a handful of Spurs-related questions with me. Over the next few days I’ll put up a series of short posts detailing the more salient moments of our exchange.

At the outset of our conversation, Winston quickly pointed toward Tony Parker’s plantar fasciitis as the first place to start when discussing San Antonio’s underwhelming start. He referred to this as a “major issue.” Beyond this, however, Winston said “if the Spurs rotated through these lineups, they would be great.”


5-Man Unit (with Pts Better Than Average Per 48)
Duncan-McDyess-Ginobili-Hill-Parker-------------48.24

Blair-Duncan-Ginobili-Hill-Parker ------------------46.43

Blair-Bonner-Jefferson-Ginobili-Hill ---------------29.39

Duncan-McDyess-Jefferson-Hill-Parker --------- 27.74

Duncan-Bonner-Jefferson-Ginobili-Parker -------14.69

Duncan-McDyess-Jefferson-Bogans-Parker------11.29

Blair-McDyess-Ginobili-Hill-Mason ------------------ 9.27


Keep reading → (http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2010/02/17/notes-from-wayne-winston-part-1/)

[FvckMavs]

No Blair-Mason-Manu-Hill-Parker Unit?

[Libri]

Other than Roger Mason Jr.’s appearance in the final suggested lineup, it seems that the Spurs could move on quite easily without him. The same is true for another of their expiring contracts, Michael Finley.

[HarlemHeat37]

None of that is surprising..it also isn't surprising to see that small ball isn't on the list..as I pointed out with the numbers in another thread, the Spurs are SIGNIFICANTLY better without small ball, which is obvious to everybody except the man that actually makes the roster decisions..

It also isn't surprising to see that Bogans doesn't make an appearance until the end, which shouldn't be the case, since Bogans has gotten the majority of his minutes with the best players on the team..

It would be more interesting to see what the numbers look like against certain caliber of teams and players, since the Spurs overall stats are all skewed by having such an easy schedule so far..so I would like to see how the better teams perform against guys like Bonner and Blair, since we've seen them get exploited by better big men a lot..

To be fair, Winston has also argued that Lamar Odom and Luol Deng have been better than Kobe this season(even before his exaggerated injuries)..

[lurker23]

I don't think anyone here is really surprised by these results- the top lineups have ZERO small ball, with ample minutes for McDyess and Blair.

[Johnny RIngo]

The amount of times each player appears in the top 7 lineups:

5 Duncan
5 Ginobili
5 Parker
5 Hill
4 Dice
4 Jefferon
3 Blair
2 Bonner
1 Mason
1 Bogans

Pretty disturbing that Bogans has started in 41 of our 52 games this season despite being one of the worst players on the roster.

[Trimble87]

The amount of times each player appears in the top 7 lineups:

5 Duncan
5 Ginobili
5 Parker
5 Hill
4 Dice
4 Jefferon
3 Blair
2 Bonner
1 Mason
1 Bogans

Pretty disturbing that Bogans has started in 41 of our 52 games this season despite being one of the worst players on the roster.

The problem is that the other nonexistant member on that list is mason. The only option we have is to start Hill instead, and that obviously makes it harder to monitor the backup pg situation.

As much as we talk about needing another defensive big man, the biggest need on this team is a good guard and backup sf(or a combo-guard who can play the 2-3 comfortably.)

[MrFundamental]

Pretty disturbing that Bogans has started in 41 of our 52 games this season despite being one of the worst players on the roster.
Starting wouldn't matter as much if Pops would start limiting his minutes more. 20+/game is too much.

[Johnny RIngo]

The problem is that the other nonexistant member on that list is mason. The only option we have is to start Hill instead, and that obviously makes it harder to monitor the backup pg situation.

As much as we talk about needing another defensive big man, the biggest need on this team is a good guard and backup sf(or a combo-guard who can play the 2-3 comfortably.)

Picking up Salmons/Thomas would have been great for us but it's too bad we didn't have the pieces necessary to trade for either player.

[vander]

and yet our most used lineups are http://www.82games.com/0910/0910SAS2.HTM

Pop's saving the good lineups for the playoffs, He must be planning on making some playoff bets and hustling the NBA. which could also mean this is his last year and he's trying to make a little extra retirement money :lol

[ffadicted]

Duncan-McDyess-Ginobili-Hill-Parker-------------48.24
Blair-Duncan-Ginobili-Hill-Parker ------------------46.43

... is anyone surprised really? The wings are kind of small, but hill is long and 6'6 is not THAT bad for small forward. Our best playmaker, our best driver, our best big man and a solid role player/defender (Hill), along with a good big man.

It kills me that those lineups often lose minutes due to small ball

[pad300]

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=147001

[lurker23]

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=147001

Thanks, sorry I missed it. I searched for Wayne Winston and a couple other key words/phrases from the article, but I can see why it didn't show up.

[pad300]

Thanks, sorry I missed it. I searched for Wayne Winston and a couple other key words/phrases from the article, but I can see why it didn't show up.

I gotta admit, it would be really nice if the search parameters could be altered so that they didn't reject links as searchable.

ie. it rejects a search for "http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2010/02/17/notes-from-wayne-winston-part-1/"

[lurker23]

I gotta admit, it would be really nice if the search parameters could be altered so that they didn't reject links as searchable.

ie. it rejects a search for "http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2010/02/17/notes-from-wayne-winston-part-1/"

You could also use Google, e.g.-

site:spurstalk.com http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2010/02/17/notes-from-wayne-winston-part-1/

(like this (http://www.google.com/search?q=site:spurstalk.com http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2010/02/17/notes-from-wayne-winston-part-1/))

But that only shows a hit because you had the text of the URL display in full on your last post.

[quentin_compson]

None of that is surprising..it also isn't surprising to see that small ball isn't on the list..

Well, I don't know, but I wouldn't call playing Hill at 2 and Manu at 3 playing big.

I know, though, that you were referring to the Frontcourt primarily.

[arakkus]

I'd be happy just playing the last 7min of the game with either of the first two lineups over several games.

[DAF86]

Well, I don't know, but I wouldn't call playing Hill at 2 and Manu at 3 playing big.

I know, though, that you were referring to the Frontcourt primarily.

Hill and Manu are arguably our two best wings/guards rebounders.

[ElNono]

Don't forget those are offense numbers... they only tell half the story...

[pad300]

Don't forget those are offense numbers... they only tell half the story...

Don't think so, as I understand Winston's methodology, he works off of the basis of +/-. Points against are a negative, and therefore defense is included.

[ElNono]

Don't think so, as I understand Winston's methodology, he works off of the basis of +/-. Points against are a negative, and therefore defense is included.

Do you have a link to his methodology? You just got me curious.
But that would explain Bonner's presence too. :lol

[dbestpro]

Would like to see the lowest avg +- groupings.

[ElNono]

To me, these are better numbers to get the complete picture: Here (http://www.82games.com/0910/0910SAS2.HTM)

You get to see distribution with rebounds, and FG%, thinks like plus/minus simply do not cover.

[pad300]

Do you have a link to his methodology? You just got me curious.
But that would explain Bonner's presence too. :lol


His book can be downloaded here:
http://waynewinston.com/wordpress/?page_id=13

I'm not sure it explains everything, but its a start.

[ElNono]

His book can be downloaded here:
http://waynewinston.com/wordpress/?page_id=13

I'm not sure it explains everything, but its a start.

Thanks. :toast

[pad300]

To me, these are better numbers to get the complete picture: Here (http://www.82games.com/0910/0910SAS2.HTM)

You get to see distribution with rebounds, and FG%, thinks like plus/minus simply do not cover.

Yes, but those are actual in-game used lineups; depending on sample size they might have been used against particularly strong or weak teams (or other sample size issue. for example, going small might work particularly well against a certain team, but not the rest of the league) . Winston is doing a projected performance for a lineup combination against an "average" team.

[ElNono]

Yes, but those are actual in-game used lineups; depending on sample size they might have been used against particularly strong or weak teams (or other sample size issue. for example, going small might work particularly well against a certain team, but not the rest of the league) . Winston is doing a projected performance for a lineup combination against an "average" team.

Right. But those numbers are an actual reflection of the team's output.
Projections normally tend not to account for fluctuations such as slumps, simply because it's very hard to predict those things. For example, Matt Bonner contribution is substantially different before and after his injury.
Another example would be Manu having a bad shooting stretch up until the recent rodeo road trip. Now, I'm not saying that his numbers are wrong or useless. I just think concrete numbers are more valuable.

[TD 21]

The amount of times each player appears in the top 7 lineups:

5 Duncan
5 Ginobili
5 Parker
5 Hill
4 Dice
4 Jefferon
3 Blair
2 Bonner
1 Mason
1 Bogans

Pretty disturbing that Bogans has started in 41 of our 52 games this season despite being one of the worst players on the roster.

Shocking! You mean when five of the seven best players on the team are on the court at the same time, playing their primary positions, that's when this team is at it's best? Imagine that?!

Pop needs to accept the fact that the Spurs, no matter how much he wants Bogans to be it, don't have a stopper on the wing, but with their commitment level, if he just cuts the small ball nonsense out, this can still be a solid defensive team. They don't have the personnel to be better than that, but they could still probably get to 7-8 in the league, rather than 9-11, which is where they hover at now.

I'm 50/50 on McDyess/Blair starting. I'd lean towards McDyess, but he claims to be more comfortable off the bench and honestly, it doesn't matter much. Like Ginobili, particularly when it matters most, he'll be playing starters minutes either way. Other than that, Duncan, Parker, Jefferson and Hill should start and along with Ginobili play the majority of the minutes. After that, Mason should round out the rotation, with Mahinmi/Hairston used sparingly. Bonner/Finley/Bogans should be on the outs.

[siraulo23]

To me, these are better numbers to get the complete picture: Here (http://www.82games.com/0910/0910SAS2.HTM)

You get to see distribution with rebounds, and FG%, thinks like plus/minus simply do not cover.

OMG, someone show the stats to pop, that Parker - Hill - Ginobili - RJ - TD lineup stats...

I thought he spent some time during the AS break to figure things out

[kace]

some thoughts from these numbers :

1) Duncan- Parker- Ginobili- Hill are by far the most succesful players

2) Tony and tim are together on the five lineups where they appear

3) RJ isn't on the two clearly best lineups

4) No small ball on these 7 best lineups even if the Blair-Bonner duo, which isn't a typical big men lineup, seems to work well (third best lineup).

5) Hill is the clear fourth man on this team. Indeed, if you add all the points, he is ahead the big thee (161) with tim, tony and manu being at 148.

6) While tim and tony play always together on their five lineups (see 2) ), manu appears in two lineups being the only member of the big three. Good idea to bring him from the bench.

[kace]

To me, these are better numbers to get the complete picture: Here (http://www.82games.com/0910/0910SAS2.HTM)

You get to see distribution with rebounds, and FG%, thinks like plus/minus simply do not cover.

what is surprising from these stats is that they bring different things than the 48MOH ones:

manu's role is largely down in these stats. not only manu doesn't appear on the four most used lineup (?) but he isn't on the two best lineup in Win% whereas RJ is. strange.


http://www.82games.com/0910/0910SAS2.HTM

[mountainballer]

Duncan-McDyess-Ginobili-Hill-Parker-------------48.24

Blair-Duncan-Ginobili-Hill-Parker ------------------46.43

Blair-Bonner-Jefferson-Ginobili-Hill ---------------29.39

Duncan-McDyess-Jefferson-Hill-Parker --------- 27.74

Duncan-Bonner-Jefferson-Ginobili-Parker -------14.69

Duncan-McDyess-Jefferson-Bogans-Parker------11.29

Blair-McDyess-Ginobili-Hill-Mason ------------------ 9.27


these are really some great informations.

the shocking part:

Duncan-McDyess-Ginobili-Hill-Parker-------------48.24

Duncan-McDyess-Jefferson-Hill-Parker --------- 27.74

what a drop of production, when just RJ replaces Manu! didn't think it could be that significant.

[greyforest]

I don't think anyone here is really surprised by these results- the top lineups have ZERO small ball, with ample minutes for McDyess and Blair.

seriously what the FUCK

[pad300]

these are really some great informations.

the shocking part:

Duncan-McDyess-Ginobili-Hill-Parker-------------48.24

Duncan-McDyess-Jefferson-Hill-Parker --------- 27.74

what a drop of production, when just RJ replaces Manu! didn't think it could be that significant.

Really, that's the difference between 2 guys who can kind of make a shot for either themselves or somebody else (Duncan, Parker) and 3 Guys (Duncan, Parker, Ginobili). Between that and the fact that Jefferson's effort level on D can be matched by Ginobli's left nut alone...

[Agloco]

5-Man Unit (with Pts Better Than Average Per 48)
Duncan-McDyess-Ginobili-Hill-Parker-------------48.24

Blair-Duncan-Ginobili-Hill-Parker ------------------46.43

Blair-Bonner-Jefferson-Ginobili-Hill ---------------29.39

Duncan-McDyess-Jefferson-Hill-Parker --------- 27.74

Duncan-Bonner-Jefferson-Ginobili-Parker -------14.69

Duncan-McDyess-Jefferson-Bogans-Parker------11.29

Blair-McDyess-Ginobili-Hill-Mason ------------------ 9.27


Keep reading → (http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2010/02/17/notes-from-wayne-winston-part-1/)

Imagine that? The units with Manu starting, two bigs, and Hill playing his native position give the highest per.......

I also noticed the extreme falloff whenever Dicky J or Mason become part of the equation. :wow

[NFGIII]

None of that is surprising..it also isn't surprising to see that small ball isn't on the list..as I pointed out with the numbers in another thread, the Spurs are SIGNIFICANTLY better without small ball, which is obvious to everybody except the man that actually makes the roster decisions..

It also isn't surprising to see that Bogans doesn't make an appearance until the end, which shouldn't be the case, since Bogans has gotten the majority of his minutes with the best players on the team..

It would be more interesting to see what the numbers look like against certain caliber of teams and players, since the Spurs overall stats are all skewed by having such an easy schedule so far..so I would like to see how the better teams perform against guys like Bonner and Blair, since we've seen them get exploited by better big men a lot..

To be fair, Winston has also argued that Lamar Odom and Luol Deng have been better than Kobe this season(even before his exaggerated injuries)..

Small ball and Bogans = failure. You and many others have been preaching that for months now and Winston's stats bear it out. And Pop can't see this? Wonder why? Arrogance? Inability to adjust to the team's current talent level/capabilities? Most here would love to get inside his head and know why and what he is thinking.

Also statistics can prove anything so it isn't surprising that he believes that Odom and Deng are better than Kobe. But if we asked him who would you want to take the last shot with the game on the line between those three players I'd bet he would probalby take Kobe. If not then he, like Hollinger, are in love and blinded by their own statistics.


and yet our most used lineups are http://www.82games.com/0910/0910SAS2.HTM

Pop's saving the good lineups for the playoffs, He must be planning on making some playoff bets and hustling the NBA. which could also mean this is his last year and he's trying to make a little extra retirement money :lol

Or he has been draining his inventory from the winery.


Really, that's the difference between 2 guys who can kind of make a shot for either themselves or somebody else (Duncan, Parker) and 3 Guys (Duncan, Parker, Ginobili). Between that and the fact that Jefferson's effort level on D can be matched by Ginobli's left nut alone...

That's was somewhat surprising to me but after thinking about it, not really. Over the past several months I've come to believe that RJ is a failed experiment and the Spurs would be better off with him coming off the bench. The difference is significant.

So the Spurs FO has been touted as one of the best in sports and they usually do their due diligence and evaluate their progress. Why haven't they figured this out yet?

I just want to :smchode:at times!

[duncan228]

Notes from Wayne Winston, part 2 (http://www.48minutesofhell.com/)
by Timothy Varner
48 Minutes of Hell

Recently, 48MoH has discussed the struggles of San Antonio’s interior defense. Please see The Roots of Defensive Decline (http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2010/02/12/the-roots-of-defensive-decline/) and The Root of All Defensive Evil (http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2010/02/23/the-root-of-all-defensive-evil/) for discussion of these points. But a struggling interior defense is often an indication of a prior breakdown on the perimeter, which seems to be the case with San Antonio this season, Manu Ginobili’s Manu-ness not withstanding (http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2010/02/25/ginobili-blocks-durant-walks-on-water/). (He’s gone all ice cold clutch lately (http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2010/02/22/detroit-pistons-109-san-antonio-spurs-101/).) This post will look at the bigger picture, and my timing couldn’t be worse.

One point of interest from my recent conversation with Wayne Winston (http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2010/02/17/notes-from-wayne-winston-part-1/) is whether George Karl is correct (http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2010/02/12/the-roots-of-defensive-decline/) in his assessment that,

Keep reading → (http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2010/02/25/notes-from-wayne-winston-part-2/#more-6563)

[8FOR!3]

I'm starting to wonder if Ginobili could work well at SF. It seems to me that the one or times they matched up on a mismatch Durant had a tougher time with Ginobili than he did RJ/Bogans. He's long, lanky, athletic, might be good for the spot.

[dbestpro]

Notes from Wayne Winston, part 2 (http://www.48minutesofhell.com/)
by Timothy Varner
48 Minutes of Hell

a struggling interior defense is often an indication of a prior breakdown on the perimeter, which seems to be the case with San Antonio this season,


The statistics are good, but the interpetation is wrong. This is why you have to watch the game today and as it has been played in the past on defense.

Penetration to the basket is not the root problem, nor is open shooters. Both of these problems are caused by small lineups or poor rotations by the bigs. We use to crowd the shooters and dared them to drive on our bigs. Our bigs would rotate in a way where one would cut off the driver and the other would position for the block out. The off wing player would play center field waiting to cut off any pass.

The problem now is when we go small and crowd the shooter the driver goes to the basket and the big that is their to defend the basket is left in no mans land as he tries to defend the basket from the defender and protect the backside at the same time. If he comes out on the driver, the driver simply throws it up because he knows his man will get the ball on the back side for the easy put back. We see this as part of the high number of offensive rebounds that we give up.

When Blair is the primary big on the floor most drivers can simply go over the top of him anyway. The perimeter defenders know this so they are more worried about the drive than the shot, thus we leave more shooters wide open. Add this equation into a simple pick and roll and the defense can easily be picked apart by any NBA team.

The interior defense must be fixed first before we can start pin pointing problems on the perimeter defense.

[HarlemHeat37]

They're both huge problems and the numbers show it..

Our perimeter D is extremely slow and lacks athleticism, just like our interior D..at least Duncan still has a huge impact on our D, as the numbers show, but we don't have ANY consistently effective perimeter defenders..our perimeter "stopper", Keith Bogans, has the worst +/- of any Spurs player..how is that allowed?..how the hell can that be our perimeter stopper?..the defense is better with Bogans on the bench and the numbers back that up..

[duncan228]

Notes from Wayne Winston, part 3 (http://www.48minutesofhell.com/)
by Timothy Varner
48 Minutes of Hell

Over the last two games, the Spurs floored more traditional lineups, eschewing small-ball combinations for the better part of each contest. This has something to do with Gregg Popovich’s efforts to keep Richard Jefferson at small forward rather than power forward, where he languishes. Coach Popovich has not shown a complete aversion to small-ball, nor should he. But the last two games find the Spurs trending back toward two-big lineups.

Keep reading → (http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2010/03/02/notes-from-wayne-winston-part-3/#more-6624)

[pad300]

More Wayne Winston on the Spurs Notes

http://waynewinston.com/wordpress/?p=469


San Antonio

Hairston (+23) has been great in limited minutes while Bogans (-11) and Bonner (-4) have struggled.

[SCdac]

"Spurs trending back toward two-big lineups"

These seven words are like music to my ears.

And the effect, on-court, is significant. When we play our best lineups and best players, it gives us much better chances to win ball games. A shame it's taken this long.

[Chomag]

None of that is surprising..it also isn't surprising to see that small ball isn't on the list..as I pointed out with the numbers in another thread, the Spurs are SIGNIFICANTLY better without small ball, which is obvious to everybody except the man that actually makes the roster decisions..

It also isn't surprising to see that Bogans doesn't make an appearance until the end, which shouldn't be the case, since Bogans has gotten the majority of his minutes with the best players on the team..

It would be more interesting to see what the numbers look like against certain caliber of teams and players, since the Spurs overall stats are all skewed by having such an easy schedule so far..so I would like to see how the better teams perform against guys like Bonner and Blair, since we've seen them get exploited by better big men a lot..

To be fair, Winston has also argued that Lamar Odom and Luol Deng have been better than Kobe this season(even before his exaggerated injuries)..

Yep, small ball line up numbers are to low to even be up on that list.

[HarlemHeat37]

More Wayne Winston on the Spurs Notes

http://waynewinston.com/wordpress/?p=469

:(

Too small of a sample size for Hairston, but Bogans' bad +/- considering how many minutes he plays with our best players is pretty sad and isn't surprising..

[Dr Cox]

man i like hill manu jefferson duncan and mcdyess (or blair)


it is a fun lineup to watch

[pad300]

:(

Too small of a sample size for Hairston, but Bogans' bad +/- considering how many minutes he plays with our best players is pretty sad and isn't surprising..

Small sample size, you bet. But we appear to be cutting down to an 8 or 9 man rotation.

TP, Duncan, Manu, Jefferson, Hill, McDyess, Blair are pretty much all in, but are only 7.

If you need another big, chose between Bonner and Mahinmi (and yeah, I think the Hornets game is a pretty good indication that that choice has been made in Bonner's favor).

If you need a wing, chose between Hairston, Bogans and Mason. At least 2 of those options have demonstrated suck this season. I'd be really tempted to give Hairston some burn as part of the shaking down process, and pray it works out. I don't think that a team with Mason or Bogans in it's top eight is going all the way...

[HarlemHeat37]

Well Sean said that Pop was planning on giving Hairston minutes and experience down the stretch..so I'm sure(at least I hope) that Malik will get a shot..he's already better than Bogans to begin with, but I expect Bogans' shooting and offense to be even worse with the apparent finger injury now..

If it's between Hairston and Mason, Pop will go with Hairston for his "defensive presence"..also, I don't think he's too fond of Mason at this point with the trade demand..

Bogans has the worst +/- on the team this season and he's in a huge slump offensively..we aren't losing anything if he's replaced..

[tav1]

Well Sean said that Pop was planning on giving Hairston minutes and experience down the stretch..so I'm sure(at least I hope) that Malik will get a shot..he's already better than Bogans to begin with, but I expect Bogans' shooting and offense to be even worse with the apparent finger injury now..

If it's between Hairston and Mason, Pop will go with Hairston for his "defensive presence"..also, I don't think he's too fond of Mason at this point with the trade demand..

Bogans has the worst +/- on the team this season and he's in a huge slump offensively..we aren't losing anything if he's replaced..

Spot on, my man. Spot on.

[boutons_deux]

Pop needs to get over himself, keep Bogans on the pine, NOT in the starting lineup.

[Chieflion]

As long the Spurs manage to outproduce the opponent, it's all good.

[Blackjack]

Notes from Wayne Winston, part 4
by Timothy Varner

One of the most fascinating aspects of Wayne Winston’s work (http://waynewinston.com/wordpress/) is the ability of adjusted plus/minus to, in the words of Gregg Popovich (http://www.nba.com/spurs/features/pop_mailbag_1003.html), “indicate trends.” My conversations with Wayne Winston have mostly operated at the level of 5-man units. But last night he sent me an email that’s worth posting because of its focus on a single player’s performance in relation to a particular teammate. How well does Player X perform with Player Y?

Keep reading → (http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2010/03/04/notes-from-wayne-winston-part-4/)