2Cleva
02-24-2010, 02:52 PM
Sizing up the West playoff race
By John Hollinger
ESPN.com
It may very well be Changing of the Guard Night in San Antonio on Wednesday. The up-and-coming Oklahoma City Thunder come into town to take on the veteran Spurs, a team the Okies have imitated so well that they've now passed it in the Western Conference standings. The Thunder enter the game in the improbable position of owning a lead of 1½ games over the Spurs, and it's quite possible that Oklahoma City could finish with a top-four seed in the West while San Antonio misses the playoffs entirely.
Of course, the opposite could happen, too: San Antonio may reassert its position near the top of the Western Conference, and the Thunder's youth may come back to bite them. We're talking about small margins here: It would take a swing of only a couple of games for OKC to find itself in the familiar position of looking up at San Antonio.
And so it goes out West. It seems the playoff chase always is a little wilder in the Western Conference, and that's certainly the case this season. Although the East playoff race features two clearly defined groups of teams that should identify themselves as the contenders and the roadkill in the playoffs, the picture becomes fuzzy when you reach the Mississippi.
The top seed in the West is settled -- L.A. leads by 5½ games and will continue to hold the conference's best record barring a total collapse -- but any other team could end up on the road when the playoffs open April 17. Right now, five teams are locked in a battle for spots 2 through 6, while we can expect another competition at the bottom of the table for the final two spots. Let's take a closer look:
Who gets home-court advantage?
One of the interesting side notes to this season's playoff race is the winner of the Southwest Division could find itself promoted from the No. 6 seed to No. 4. Although the division is the league's strongest from top to bottom, with all five clubs over .500 at the moment, the division winner (either Dallas or San Antonio) could land behind L.A. and Phoenix from the Pacific and Denver, Utah and Oklahoma City from the Southwest in terms of its win-loss record.
Only 2½ games separate second from sixth in the West right now, and the projected final standings in our Playoff Odds yield only a four-game difference. Denver and Utah lead the way, with the added intrigue of a potential 2 versus 3 matchup in the conference semifinals between the Rocky Mountain rivals. Both teams have played very well during the past few weeks -- Utah is a scorching 17-3 in its past 20 games, and the Nuggets are 14-6 with wins over the Lakers, Cavs, Jazz, Celtics, Mavs and Magic.
That said, each faces potential trouble. Utah's torrid play has moved it up to second in the Power Rankings, but recent injuries to Deron Williams and Andrei Kirilenko as well as the trade of Ronnie Brewer suddenly leave Utah with questions at three of the five starting spots. Throw in the fact that Utah's remaining schedule is unfavorable (just 11 home games remain) and the way this same group limped home last season, and its projected 54-win finish seems far from preordained.
The Nuggets, meanwhile, remain very vulnerable to injuries in the frontcourt because they're operating with basically a three-man rotation. Plus, their schedule offers few favors; the networks loaded up on big March and April games for them as a reward for making the conference finals last season. But Denver has one big advantage: It already owns the tiebreaker over Utah by virtue of winning the first three meetings between the clubs.
The next three
Should either Denver or Utah falter, three teams are lying in the weeds to take advantage: Dallas, Phoenix and Oklahoma City. Even if the Jazz and Nuggets emerge as the second and third seeds, we should have a heck of a fight for the last home-court spot in the first round. (Dallas, for instance, would gain home-court advantage only if it has a better record than the No. 5 seed, even if the Mavericks win the Southwest Division and the No. 4 seed.)
Surprisingly, Phoenix is still in this discussion. The Suns faded badly after a 14-3 start but seemed to regain their footing this month. They've quietly dispatched nine of 11 impressive victims, including Dallas, Houston, New Orleans, Denver, Memphis and Oklahoma City (Tuesday night). Thanks to another big game by Amare Stoudemire and a strong relief effort at the point from Goran Dragic, they were able to beat the Thunder on the road despite not having Steve Nash.
Additionally, the schedule turns in Phoenix's phavor over the phinal two months: The Suns have only 10 road games left and play 10 noncontenders in their last 24 games. The Playoff Odds project a 15-9 finish for the Suns, but if they can beat the odds and go more like 17-7, they very well could push into a top-three seed.
One false step, however, and they'll be fifth or sixth, especially if Dallas continues playing well in the wake of a midseason trade for Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood; the Mavs have won four straight since making the deal. The Power Rankings remain skeptical of the Mavs, listing them 12th thanks to an unimpressive plus-1.95 average scoring margin. But Dallas has 36 wins squirreled away and a West-high 14 home games remaining; only Chicago and Milwaukee have more.
Dallas also has clinched the tiebreaker over the Suns, and that could prove helpful in any tussle over home-court advantage. Standing just a half-game behind Utah and 1½ games behind the Nuggets, the Mavs could move as high as second with a strong finish.
Still, the odds of such a strong close remain in question. Coming out of the All-Star break, Dallas wasn't playing nearly as well as the two other clubs -- it was just 10-10 in 20 games before the break, and it remains to be seen how big a difference Butler and Haywood ultimately will make. Additionally, Utah owns the tiebreaker against Dallas by virtue of a 2-1 series lead.
Finally, there are the Okies. Nobody expects much from them because they haven't been here before, and we'd all be a little disappointed if they got in the way of an epic Mavs-Suns Stein Bowl in the first round. Nonetheless, few teams have taken care of business like this one: Oklahoma City hasn't lost to a team outside playoff contention since a Nov. 15 defeat to the Clippers.
Unfortunately for the Thunder, only eight such games remain on their schedule; the other 19 are against playoff contenders. The fortunate part is that they control their own destiny as much as any team -- Oklahoma City still has 27 games left on its schedule, the most of any team going forward, compared to 25 for Dallas and 24 for Phoenix.
If you force me to guess, I'll say the season will play out like this: Denver will outlast Utah for the No. 2 seed, Utah will hang on to No. 3, Dallas and Phoenix will give us the first-round showdown we want to see, and the Thunder will glide in at No. 6.
As this plays out, here's one game to keep an eye on: the April 9 matchup in Oklahoma City between the Suns and Thunder. It's really like two games because it also will decide the tiebreaker.
What about the Spurs?
As for the last two spots in the West, San Antonio and Portland would seem to have the upper hand. Wednesday's Playoff Odds give each a better-than-3-in-4 chance of hanging on to their present slots. However, each club is battered physically. The Spurs are struggling with Tony Parker's hip and Tim Duncan's knees, while Portland continues to watch Brandon Roy battle a sore hamstring and just lost Marcus Camby to a rolled ankle.
The schedule also doesn't do either team any favors, especially in San Antonio's case. The Spurs have far and away the NBA's most difficult remaining schedule: 12 games at home, 16 on the road, and most against good teams thanks to the same back-loaded slate of contenders the league gave Denver. San Antonio has national TV dates remaining against Phoenix, New Orleans, Cleveland, Orlando, Atlanta, L.A. Lakers, Boston, Denver, Phoenix again and the Lakers again. There's also another game against Cleveland and another against New Orleans, not to mention two each against Oklahoma City, Houston and Memphis.
It's a brutal, brutal slate, and the league-high 28 remaining games will come fast and furious. Moreover, this is the time of the season when the Spurs are perhaps least prepared to handle the onslaught. Although historically the team has peaked late, its metrics were much stronger earlier this season, as was its health.
The race for No. 8
Portland also will have to earn a playoff spot on the road. The Blazers have played a league-high 32 home games and have only nine left. Should Roy miss any more time, their current hold on the No. 8 spot would become extremely tenuous.
The good news for the Blazers and Spurs is that they probably need to go only .500 to make the playoffs. Such finishes would leave Portland with 44 or 45 wins and San Antonio with 45.
The three teams chasing the Blazers and Spurs -- the Rockets, Hornets and Grizzlies -- each have a less-than-1-in-4 shot at the postseason, according to Wednesday's Playoff Odds. Memphis, in particular, seems to be a long shot, at just 9.2 percent. The Grizzlies haven't been playing terribly well of late, having won just three of their past 10 games, and face a fairly difficult schedule the rest of the way. Their best hope is to win their remaining game against Portland and their final two against San Antonio to earn the tiebreaker over both.
Tiebreak logic also factors in prominently for the Rockets and Hornets. Houston, like Memphis, has struggled of late. But the Rockets have 14 home games left and can earn the tiebreaker against both rivals if they win the last two against San Antonio. (Houston and Portland split their season series, but the Rockets likely will gain the tiebreaker if both teams finish with the same record; Houston probably will finish with a better conference record because it is only one game behind in conference record but three back overall.)
However, the team with the best chance to break through is New Orleans. The Hornets are incredibly lucky to be 30-27, given that opponents have outscored them by 1.2 points per game; normally, a team with that margin would be 26-31.
That said, the Hornets have several favorable things going forward. For starters, they have two games against the Spurs and one against Portland with which they can make up ground and clinch the tiebreaker. Second, with 30 wins in their pocket, they trail Portland by only two games and the Spurs by 2½. The Hornets' remaining schedule isn't easy -- I count only six doormats in the final 27 games -- but compared to what the Spurs and Blazers face, it's a breeze.
Finally, Chris Paul is expected to return to the Hornets' lineup shortly, and that should give them a boost above and beyond the one already provided by electric rookie Darren Collison. Chances are they will fall short of the playoffs. But if there's a team that might upset the apple cart of the current top eight, the Hornets are the ones to put your money on. And should both New Orleans and Houston make a charge, the real fun would begin: They'll play each other the last day of the season.
The chase for No. 8, like the one for seeding above them, begins Wednesday in San Antonio. If history is any guide, we're headed for another photo finish.
Damn - that schedule is brutal for the Spurs.
By John Hollinger
ESPN.com
It may very well be Changing of the Guard Night in San Antonio on Wednesday. The up-and-coming Oklahoma City Thunder come into town to take on the veteran Spurs, a team the Okies have imitated so well that they've now passed it in the Western Conference standings. The Thunder enter the game in the improbable position of owning a lead of 1½ games over the Spurs, and it's quite possible that Oklahoma City could finish with a top-four seed in the West while San Antonio misses the playoffs entirely.
Of course, the opposite could happen, too: San Antonio may reassert its position near the top of the Western Conference, and the Thunder's youth may come back to bite them. We're talking about small margins here: It would take a swing of only a couple of games for OKC to find itself in the familiar position of looking up at San Antonio.
And so it goes out West. It seems the playoff chase always is a little wilder in the Western Conference, and that's certainly the case this season. Although the East playoff race features two clearly defined groups of teams that should identify themselves as the contenders and the roadkill in the playoffs, the picture becomes fuzzy when you reach the Mississippi.
The top seed in the West is settled -- L.A. leads by 5½ games and will continue to hold the conference's best record barring a total collapse -- but any other team could end up on the road when the playoffs open April 17. Right now, five teams are locked in a battle for spots 2 through 6, while we can expect another competition at the bottom of the table for the final two spots. Let's take a closer look:
Who gets home-court advantage?
One of the interesting side notes to this season's playoff race is the winner of the Southwest Division could find itself promoted from the No. 6 seed to No. 4. Although the division is the league's strongest from top to bottom, with all five clubs over .500 at the moment, the division winner (either Dallas or San Antonio) could land behind L.A. and Phoenix from the Pacific and Denver, Utah and Oklahoma City from the Southwest in terms of its win-loss record.
Only 2½ games separate second from sixth in the West right now, and the projected final standings in our Playoff Odds yield only a four-game difference. Denver and Utah lead the way, with the added intrigue of a potential 2 versus 3 matchup in the conference semifinals between the Rocky Mountain rivals. Both teams have played very well during the past few weeks -- Utah is a scorching 17-3 in its past 20 games, and the Nuggets are 14-6 with wins over the Lakers, Cavs, Jazz, Celtics, Mavs and Magic.
That said, each faces potential trouble. Utah's torrid play has moved it up to second in the Power Rankings, but recent injuries to Deron Williams and Andrei Kirilenko as well as the trade of Ronnie Brewer suddenly leave Utah with questions at three of the five starting spots. Throw in the fact that Utah's remaining schedule is unfavorable (just 11 home games remain) and the way this same group limped home last season, and its projected 54-win finish seems far from preordained.
The Nuggets, meanwhile, remain very vulnerable to injuries in the frontcourt because they're operating with basically a three-man rotation. Plus, their schedule offers few favors; the networks loaded up on big March and April games for them as a reward for making the conference finals last season. But Denver has one big advantage: It already owns the tiebreaker over Utah by virtue of winning the first three meetings between the clubs.
The next three
Should either Denver or Utah falter, three teams are lying in the weeds to take advantage: Dallas, Phoenix and Oklahoma City. Even if the Jazz and Nuggets emerge as the second and third seeds, we should have a heck of a fight for the last home-court spot in the first round. (Dallas, for instance, would gain home-court advantage only if it has a better record than the No. 5 seed, even if the Mavericks win the Southwest Division and the No. 4 seed.)
Surprisingly, Phoenix is still in this discussion. The Suns faded badly after a 14-3 start but seemed to regain their footing this month. They've quietly dispatched nine of 11 impressive victims, including Dallas, Houston, New Orleans, Denver, Memphis and Oklahoma City (Tuesday night). Thanks to another big game by Amare Stoudemire and a strong relief effort at the point from Goran Dragic, they were able to beat the Thunder on the road despite not having Steve Nash.
Additionally, the schedule turns in Phoenix's phavor over the phinal two months: The Suns have only 10 road games left and play 10 noncontenders in their last 24 games. The Playoff Odds project a 15-9 finish for the Suns, but if they can beat the odds and go more like 17-7, they very well could push into a top-three seed.
One false step, however, and they'll be fifth or sixth, especially if Dallas continues playing well in the wake of a midseason trade for Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood; the Mavs have won four straight since making the deal. The Power Rankings remain skeptical of the Mavs, listing them 12th thanks to an unimpressive plus-1.95 average scoring margin. But Dallas has 36 wins squirreled away and a West-high 14 home games remaining; only Chicago and Milwaukee have more.
Dallas also has clinched the tiebreaker over the Suns, and that could prove helpful in any tussle over home-court advantage. Standing just a half-game behind Utah and 1½ games behind the Nuggets, the Mavs could move as high as second with a strong finish.
Still, the odds of such a strong close remain in question. Coming out of the All-Star break, Dallas wasn't playing nearly as well as the two other clubs -- it was just 10-10 in 20 games before the break, and it remains to be seen how big a difference Butler and Haywood ultimately will make. Additionally, Utah owns the tiebreaker against Dallas by virtue of a 2-1 series lead.
Finally, there are the Okies. Nobody expects much from them because they haven't been here before, and we'd all be a little disappointed if they got in the way of an epic Mavs-Suns Stein Bowl in the first round. Nonetheless, few teams have taken care of business like this one: Oklahoma City hasn't lost to a team outside playoff contention since a Nov. 15 defeat to the Clippers.
Unfortunately for the Thunder, only eight such games remain on their schedule; the other 19 are against playoff contenders. The fortunate part is that they control their own destiny as much as any team -- Oklahoma City still has 27 games left on its schedule, the most of any team going forward, compared to 25 for Dallas and 24 for Phoenix.
If you force me to guess, I'll say the season will play out like this: Denver will outlast Utah for the No. 2 seed, Utah will hang on to No. 3, Dallas and Phoenix will give us the first-round showdown we want to see, and the Thunder will glide in at No. 6.
As this plays out, here's one game to keep an eye on: the April 9 matchup in Oklahoma City between the Suns and Thunder. It's really like two games because it also will decide the tiebreaker.
What about the Spurs?
As for the last two spots in the West, San Antonio and Portland would seem to have the upper hand. Wednesday's Playoff Odds give each a better-than-3-in-4 chance of hanging on to their present slots. However, each club is battered physically. The Spurs are struggling with Tony Parker's hip and Tim Duncan's knees, while Portland continues to watch Brandon Roy battle a sore hamstring and just lost Marcus Camby to a rolled ankle.
The schedule also doesn't do either team any favors, especially in San Antonio's case. The Spurs have far and away the NBA's most difficult remaining schedule: 12 games at home, 16 on the road, and most against good teams thanks to the same back-loaded slate of contenders the league gave Denver. San Antonio has national TV dates remaining against Phoenix, New Orleans, Cleveland, Orlando, Atlanta, L.A. Lakers, Boston, Denver, Phoenix again and the Lakers again. There's also another game against Cleveland and another against New Orleans, not to mention two each against Oklahoma City, Houston and Memphis.
It's a brutal, brutal slate, and the league-high 28 remaining games will come fast and furious. Moreover, this is the time of the season when the Spurs are perhaps least prepared to handle the onslaught. Although historically the team has peaked late, its metrics were much stronger earlier this season, as was its health.
The race for No. 8
Portland also will have to earn a playoff spot on the road. The Blazers have played a league-high 32 home games and have only nine left. Should Roy miss any more time, their current hold on the No. 8 spot would become extremely tenuous.
The good news for the Blazers and Spurs is that they probably need to go only .500 to make the playoffs. Such finishes would leave Portland with 44 or 45 wins and San Antonio with 45.
The three teams chasing the Blazers and Spurs -- the Rockets, Hornets and Grizzlies -- each have a less-than-1-in-4 shot at the postseason, according to Wednesday's Playoff Odds. Memphis, in particular, seems to be a long shot, at just 9.2 percent. The Grizzlies haven't been playing terribly well of late, having won just three of their past 10 games, and face a fairly difficult schedule the rest of the way. Their best hope is to win their remaining game against Portland and their final two against San Antonio to earn the tiebreaker over both.
Tiebreak logic also factors in prominently for the Rockets and Hornets. Houston, like Memphis, has struggled of late. But the Rockets have 14 home games left and can earn the tiebreaker against both rivals if they win the last two against San Antonio. (Houston and Portland split their season series, but the Rockets likely will gain the tiebreaker if both teams finish with the same record; Houston probably will finish with a better conference record because it is only one game behind in conference record but three back overall.)
However, the team with the best chance to break through is New Orleans. The Hornets are incredibly lucky to be 30-27, given that opponents have outscored them by 1.2 points per game; normally, a team with that margin would be 26-31.
That said, the Hornets have several favorable things going forward. For starters, they have two games against the Spurs and one against Portland with which they can make up ground and clinch the tiebreaker. Second, with 30 wins in their pocket, they trail Portland by only two games and the Spurs by 2½. The Hornets' remaining schedule isn't easy -- I count only six doormats in the final 27 games -- but compared to what the Spurs and Blazers face, it's a breeze.
Finally, Chris Paul is expected to return to the Hornets' lineup shortly, and that should give them a boost above and beyond the one already provided by electric rookie Darren Collison. Chances are they will fall short of the playoffs. But if there's a team that might upset the apple cart of the current top eight, the Hornets are the ones to put your money on. And should both New Orleans and Houston make a charge, the real fun would begin: They'll play each other the last day of the season.
The chase for No. 8, like the one for seeding above them, begins Wednesday in San Antonio. If history is any guide, we're headed for another photo finish.
Damn - that schedule is brutal for the Spurs.