duncan228
02-24-2010, 03:23 PM
Spurs Roundup: Playing the playoff percentages (http://www.kens5.com/sports/Spurs-Roundup-Playing-the-playoff-percentages-85207252.html)
by Dan Oshinsky / KENS 5
The road trip is over. The Rodeo dirt has been cleared.
But the San Antonio Spurs are on anything but stable ground.
The Spurs are waking up this morning in 7th place in the Western Conference. At 31-23, they've won two fewer games than the 8th place team (Portland, who is 33-26). New Orleans, Houston and Memphis are all above .500 and within striking distance of the Spurs.
So what's left to say about a team that went 4-4 on its yearly Rodeo road trip, that pulled off an upset victory at Denver and then followed it up by going 1-2 against three teams that -- as of today -- are a combined 34 games below .500?
Something like: these guys might seriously be in trouble.
The Home Stretch
Here's how it breaks down: there are 28 games left in the season, and this is the hardest stretch of games that the Spurs will play this year.
Consider this as proof: here are the remaining games that the Spurs will play against teams that are below .500:
• In Februrary: 3 games left, 0 against sub-.500 teams
• In March: 17 games to play, 5 against sub-. 500 (vs. NY Knicks, at Minnesota, vs. L.A. Clippers, vs. Golden State, at Nets)
• In April, 8 games to play, 2 against sub-.500 (at Sacramento, vs. Minnesota)
So that leaves 21 games against legitimate, fighting-for-a-playoff-spot caliber teams.
That includes stretches like March 21 to March 31, in which the Spurs play seven games (at Atlanta, at Oklahoma City, vs. L.A. Lakers, vs. Cleveland, at Boston, at New Jersey, vs Houston). That's a stretch in which success would be going 3-4, and 2-5 seems much more likely than 5-2.
Okay, so let's play the percentages. Let's say the Spurs turn it on and start playing their best basketball of the year. They beat all seven sub.-500 teams and play .600 ball against the remaining 21. They finish the year by going 20-8, and they end the regular season with a 51-31 record. They probably don't edge out the Mavs for the division, and they end up the 5 or the 6 seed in the West (and get Utah, Denver or Dallas in the first round).
That's the best case scenario that the Roundup can imagine.... and it's about as likely as the chance that Manu Ginobili begins naturally growing back his hair.
Worst-Case Scenario
So, you're wondering: if best-case scenario is a potential first-round playoff exit, then what's the worst case?
You're not going to like this one, either. I've got three words for you: Ping. Pong. Balls.
It's tough to believe, considering the pre-season hype (http://www.kens5.com/sports/basketball/The-Roundup-Why-the-Spurs-Could-Win-It-All-66608782.html), but if things break wrong for the Spurs, they could end up out of the playoffs and in the NBA lottery instead.
Let's say the Spurs merely play .500 ball in their last 28 games. They'd finish the year at 45-37, and I don't know if that's enough to get into the playoffs
For some perspective:
• '08-'09: 8th seed was Utah, 48-34 record
• '07-'08: 8th seed was Denver, 50-32 record
• '06-'07: 8th seed was Golden State, 42-40 record
• '05-'06: 8th seed was Sacramento: 44-38 record
• '04-'05: 8th seed was Memphis, 45-37
So 45-37 may be good enough to get into the playoffs, but I'd guess that if it is, it would be as the 8 seed, with a first-round matchup against the Lakers.
Now, if the Spurs continue to win at their current percentage (57.4), they'd get 16 more wins, and 47-35 probably gets them into the playoffs. Again, the question would be: as what seed? A first-round series against the Lakers is probably a first-round exit.
So yes, the playoffs are still a possibility, but the Spurs are going to have to start playing some of their best basketball of the year, and they'll have to do it -- at least initially -- without Tony Parker (http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2010/02/22/what-is-a-strained-left-iliopsoas/).
They're at the point in the season where a playoff berth might be decided by a half-game margin. Which means that if April comes and the Spurs are a game or two out of the playoffs, coach Gregg Popovich is going to look back at this Rodeo road trip and wonder how, exactly, his team won only one of three against the Eastern Conference's doormats.
by Dan Oshinsky / KENS 5
The road trip is over. The Rodeo dirt has been cleared.
But the San Antonio Spurs are on anything but stable ground.
The Spurs are waking up this morning in 7th place in the Western Conference. At 31-23, they've won two fewer games than the 8th place team (Portland, who is 33-26). New Orleans, Houston and Memphis are all above .500 and within striking distance of the Spurs.
So what's left to say about a team that went 4-4 on its yearly Rodeo road trip, that pulled off an upset victory at Denver and then followed it up by going 1-2 against three teams that -- as of today -- are a combined 34 games below .500?
Something like: these guys might seriously be in trouble.
The Home Stretch
Here's how it breaks down: there are 28 games left in the season, and this is the hardest stretch of games that the Spurs will play this year.
Consider this as proof: here are the remaining games that the Spurs will play against teams that are below .500:
• In Februrary: 3 games left, 0 against sub-.500 teams
• In March: 17 games to play, 5 against sub-. 500 (vs. NY Knicks, at Minnesota, vs. L.A. Clippers, vs. Golden State, at Nets)
• In April, 8 games to play, 2 against sub-.500 (at Sacramento, vs. Minnesota)
So that leaves 21 games against legitimate, fighting-for-a-playoff-spot caliber teams.
That includes stretches like March 21 to March 31, in which the Spurs play seven games (at Atlanta, at Oklahoma City, vs. L.A. Lakers, vs. Cleveland, at Boston, at New Jersey, vs Houston). That's a stretch in which success would be going 3-4, and 2-5 seems much more likely than 5-2.
Okay, so let's play the percentages. Let's say the Spurs turn it on and start playing their best basketball of the year. They beat all seven sub.-500 teams and play .600 ball against the remaining 21. They finish the year by going 20-8, and they end the regular season with a 51-31 record. They probably don't edge out the Mavs for the division, and they end up the 5 or the 6 seed in the West (and get Utah, Denver or Dallas in the first round).
That's the best case scenario that the Roundup can imagine.... and it's about as likely as the chance that Manu Ginobili begins naturally growing back his hair.
Worst-Case Scenario
So, you're wondering: if best-case scenario is a potential first-round playoff exit, then what's the worst case?
You're not going to like this one, either. I've got three words for you: Ping. Pong. Balls.
It's tough to believe, considering the pre-season hype (http://www.kens5.com/sports/basketball/The-Roundup-Why-the-Spurs-Could-Win-It-All-66608782.html), but if things break wrong for the Spurs, they could end up out of the playoffs and in the NBA lottery instead.
Let's say the Spurs merely play .500 ball in their last 28 games. They'd finish the year at 45-37, and I don't know if that's enough to get into the playoffs
For some perspective:
• '08-'09: 8th seed was Utah, 48-34 record
• '07-'08: 8th seed was Denver, 50-32 record
• '06-'07: 8th seed was Golden State, 42-40 record
• '05-'06: 8th seed was Sacramento: 44-38 record
• '04-'05: 8th seed was Memphis, 45-37
So 45-37 may be good enough to get into the playoffs, but I'd guess that if it is, it would be as the 8 seed, with a first-round matchup against the Lakers.
Now, if the Spurs continue to win at their current percentage (57.4), they'd get 16 more wins, and 47-35 probably gets them into the playoffs. Again, the question would be: as what seed? A first-round series against the Lakers is probably a first-round exit.
So yes, the playoffs are still a possibility, but the Spurs are going to have to start playing some of their best basketball of the year, and they'll have to do it -- at least initially -- without Tony Parker (http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2010/02/22/what-is-a-strained-left-iliopsoas/).
They're at the point in the season where a playoff berth might be decided by a half-game margin. Which means that if April comes and the Spurs are a game or two out of the playoffs, coach Gregg Popovich is going to look back at this Rodeo road trip and wonder how, exactly, his team won only one of three against the Eastern Conference's doormats.