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duncan228
03-04-2010, 04:30 PM
Mavs, Nuggets Playing Out Intriguing Race for Second Best in West (http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=tsn-mavsnuggetsplayingou&prov=tsn&type=lgns)
SportingNews

The Lakers are the class of the West, and with good reason. They’re the defending champs, loaded with talent and experienced enough to weather any storms that may arise as they try to defend their title.

This season, though, they’ve had trouble defeating the Denver Nuggets, who have won two of three against L.A. in relatively convincing fashion. Regular-season wins are by no means a direct predictor of playoff success, but based on their performance this season and their ability to take the Lakers to six games in last year’s conference finals, the Nuggets have emerged as the team with the best chance of toppling the Lakers.

It’s easy to see why. They have a legitimate superstar in Carmelo Anthony who has stepped his game up this season. Chauncey Billups is a steady hand at point and a peerless leader. Kenyon Martin is an active presence on defense and on the glass. Nene has turned into one of the most productive centers in the West. J.R. Smith, while erratic, is one of the few bench players in the league capable of winning a playoff game on his own. With the possible exception of another big man, all the pieces are there.

But if you take a look at the West standings, the Nuggets sit in third, a half-game behind the Dallas Mavericks, a team in the midst of a nine-game winning streak. So why, exactly, are we only now discussing the Mavericks in the same breath as the Nuggets?

Part of it is a simple matter of timing. We simply haven’t known this version of the Mavs as long as we have the Nuggets. The trade for Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood changed the dynamic of the team, and it’s simply harder to know how they’ll match up with Los Angeles in this new incarnation over a long series. They did manage to beat the Lakers at home last Wednesday, but one game cannot be extrapolated to a playoff atmosphere.

Up and down the Mavs’ roster, there are many similarities between them and the Nuggets. Dirk Nowitzki plays the role of superstar scorer. While not on the same level as Billups these days, Jason Kidd is in complete control of the Dallas offense. Brendan Haywood has given them a legitimate presence in the middle. Shawn Marion, like Kenyon Martin, is a disruptor on defense. Jason Terry, assuming he can come back from face surgery, is the most potent bench scorer in the NBA and much more consistent than Smith. Plus, don’t forget Caron Butler, who has no clear analogue on the Nuggets.

Even their weaknesses are relatively similar. Haywood was a huge pickup for Dallas, but Erick Dampier is out indefinitely with a finger injury, and the Mavericks don’t have the depth to match up with the Lakers inside. Should either team face the Lakers in the West finals, you can be sure that the Lakers will (or should) exploit the same advantage in the post, relying on Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, and Lamar Odom to carry them to the NBA Finals.

Of course, there are other teams behind Dallas and Denver. Utah is two games back of Dallas, with Phoenix a half-game behind the Jazz. It’s within the realm of possibility that they could make a charge for that spot. But in terms of talent and experience, the Mavericks and Nuggets continue to stand out.

There’s a tendency to talk about these teams in terms of their chances of beating the Lakers, as I have throughout this post. But when you match up Denver and Dallas against each other, it becomes increasingly apparent that they represent the most competitive matchup between two West playoff teams. They won’t meet up in the West finals, but their likely matchup in the conference semis will be appointment viewing.

Despite the Nuggets’ success this season and the Mavs’ new look, the Lakers are still the clear favorite; when they try their hardest, they’re just too stacked for their conference rivals. The most interesting case of pending playoff drama isn’t who they’ll meet in the Finals, but rather how that team will get there. Remember, the best and most compelling playoff series aren’t always the ones that happen last.