48MoH: The value of Tim Duncan’s blocks

[Blackjack]

The value of Tim Duncan’s blocks (http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2010/03/06/the-value-of-tim-duncans-blocks/)
by Graydon Gordian

Henry Abbott, Kevin Arnovitz, and numerous other TrueHoop Network writers are at the MIT Sloan Sports Conference. While there, Sebastian Pruiti of NetsAreScorching (http://netsarescorching.com/) and NBA Playbook reported on a paper (http://nbaplaybook.com/2010/03/06/the-value-of-a-blocked-shot/) presented by John Huizinga, a professor of business at the University of Chicago (via TrueHoop (http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/14032/the-value-of-a-blocked-shot)):


Is blocking a lay-up more valuable than blocking a jump-shot? Mr. Huizinga’s data says yes. In his presentation, he said that it all comes down to expected value. A jumper has an expected point value of 1.04 while a lay-up has an expected point value of 1.54.

Although intuitive in its own right, this information paints a counterintuitive portrait of some of the NBA’s better regarded frontcourt defenders. For instance, “Looking at it this way, Brendon Haywood, who many people think is a very good defender (me included) actually is a less valuable shot blocker than Jermaine O’Neal.”

Huizinga’s paper is titled “The Value of a Blocked Shot in the NBA: From Dwight Howard to Tim Duncan,” and not without good reason, explains Pruiti:


…As [Huizinga] explained, through a series of charts, Tim Duncan has had the best season in history when it came down to value/block with 1.12, meaning he saved 1.12 points with every block and Dwight Howard ended up with the worst season in terms of value/block with with .53 (both came during the 2008 season).

Long ago I noticed that most of Tim Duncan’s blocks came right at the rim, which is why I am so excited to read about Huizinga’s paper. Rather than stoke the debate between traditional scouting and advanced statisticians, it further shows how the conclusions of one can work symbiotically with the visual evidence of the other.

[doobs]

But blocking a jumpshot leads to better transition scoring opportunities.

[DPG21920]

Very interesting observation. There is never a shortage of research you can do.

[Baseline]

If anything has become clear about Popovich this year, it's that he doesn't believe in statistical analysis of anything.

If he did, Finley wouldn't have seen the floor after the 2007 season, nor would Finley have been re-signed after, freaking after, the 2008 season, when it was obvious to every Spurs fan that he was done.

But tonight, if Finley were still on the team, Pop would sit Tim and Finley would play 30+ minutes, even though any stat guy in the universe would tell you that playing Finley at all in an NBA game would not be a good statistical move. In the age of PER, players have to produce when they're on the court, not just drift around, throw up a few jumpers, and maybe break a sweat.

So, the Spurs' stats improved by Finley's self-removal. In his final act as a Spur, Finley had his greatest (and perhaps only) assist -- he helped Pop save Pop from himself.

[Muser]

Blocking a layup/dunk is much more valuable than blocking a jumper.

[quentin_compson]

But blocking a jumpshot leads to better transition scoring opportunities.

Not necessarily. Usually, a blocked shot under the basket should be easier to secure for the defending team.
Plus, if you want to go down the psychological path: Blocking a potential lay-up or dunk is much more of an inspiring statement for your teammates or your fans, I think.

[raspsa]

Too bad the NBA didn't keep statistics on blocked shots in the early years. Guys like Russell and Chamberlain were monsters in the lane and had field days swatting layups.

[Manudona]

The real question is why fans drool over shot blockers and there is not even a stat for charges taken even when if you block a shot the ball can be recovered by the blocked player's team and score and by taking a charge gives you the possession of the ball.

[Chieflion]

The real question is why fans drool over shot blockers and there is not even a stat for charges taken even when if you block a shot the ball can be recovered by the blocked player's team and score and by taking a charge gives you the possession of the ball.

Actually, you just need to search hard for that stat. I read somewhere Andrew Bogut had 40+ charges taken in this season and also records 2.3 blocks per game.

[Seventyniner]

It's interesting that Dwight Howard's value per block was so low in 2008. He doesn't stray that far from the rim on defense (or so I thought), so it seems that he would be blocking a lot of layups/dunks.

One other thing I've read is that Duncan (like Bill Russell) tends to block shots and tap them to himself or a teammate, while Howard (and Chris Andersen, etc) seem to like spiking the ball into the 3rd row, even though that gives the ball right back to the offense.

[mogrovejo]

But blocking a jumpshot leads to better transition scoring opportunities.

You obviously didn't read the article. "Russels" (blocks that start a fastbreak) dont relly happen in the NBA any more. The author factored them anyway.

-------

Charge stats are available in HoopData.com. Bogut is great taking charges - one of the little things that probably make him a top-3 defender in the NBA these days.

[Blackjack]

Dwight Howard's defense is overrated, except for when it isn't
By John Krolik

http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/Dwight%20Howard.jpg

One of the most buzzed-about things during the recent Sloan Conference at MIT was a paper presented by John Huizinga on the value of a blocked shot.

It was an interesting paper because it quantified things that fans have known for years. A block softly deflected to a teammate is better than a shot swatted out of bounds, blocking a layup is more valuable than blocking a jump shot, and goaltending is bad.

What makes the paper extremely interesting is that according to Huizinga's findings, Dwight Howard made the least valuable blocks in the league, while Tim Duncan made the most valuable ones. Since Howard is generally regarded as the best shot-blocker in the NBA by a wide margin, this finding has stirred up some controversy. Most people know that Howard goes for some blocks even he can't get and tends to spike the ball out of bounds rather than tap it to a teammate, but the least valuable blocks?

Keep reading → (http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/03/dwight-howards-defense-is-overrated-except-for-when-it-isnt.php)

[HarlemHeat37]

Pretty much what I argued in the NBA forum..Howard's defensive impact is massive..

[ElNono]

We don't need no stinking blocked shots... we've been doing great with the frontcourt tandem of Bonner/Jefferson...

[L.I.T]

By this study and the arguments used to defend Howard's impact, David Robinson could be considered a shot-blocking monster. He rarely blocked the ball out of bounds, at times using shot blocks as outlet passes and averaged an ungodly number of blocks during the early part of his career. He both kept the ball in play and intimidated opponents driving to the rim.

I would be curious to see how guys like Mutombo and Ewing did as well. I remember Mourning used to block a number of shots out of bounds...but that could just be faulty recollection.

[ploto]

He rarely blocked the ball out of bounds, at times using shot blocks as outlet passes...

At the fourth MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference last weekend, University of Chicago professor John Huizinga and researcher Sandy Weil presented a paper on the value of a blocked shot, having analyzed 1.6 million possessions over seven seasons (2002-03 to '08-09)...

A block that sends a ball into the third row of the stands may be intimidating, but it isn't nearly as valuable as a block that lands softly into the hands of a teammate, for obvious change-of-possession reasons. The master of this is Nesterovic, as 65 percent of his blocks are tipped to teammates to kick-start an offensive possession, tops in the NBA.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/paul_forrester/03/10/darko.notes/index.html#ixzz0i2jS3mKX