spectator
03-10-2010, 01:14 AM
With the lack of great fortitude in the recent loss of Tony Parker, I find myself looking forward to the playoffs as a 7-8th seed and wondering how the playoff team and playing time will be arranged.
Couple of things we already know: the star players will have their PT increased and the rotation will be cut to 7-8 players.
My 1st assumption (full of optimism): Tony Parker recovers in 4 weeks, plays 4-5 games before the start of the play-offs and is completely healed from the hand and hip injuries as well as plantar fasciitis.
My 2nd assumption (idem): Bogans plays limited minutes. I admit that this one is more of a personal wish than an assumption. Regardless.
Since 3 of our most talented players - Hill, Parker and Ginobili - play the 1 and 2 spots, I would not put it past Pop to play a combo of Hill, Parker, Gino and RJ at the 1, 2 and 3.
I would imagine that all 4 of them would average about 36 minutes, which adds up to 144 for the game. The starting line-up would be Parker-Hill-RJ and would change to Parker-Gino-RJ to Parker-Hill-Gino and to Hill-Gino-RJ as the game goes.
If this were the case with the 1-2-3 positions, I would be happy enough. A healthy Parker, more experienced Hill and full-strength Gino would be strong enough for a championship run; even if RJ has his faults, he has proven to have a good game for every two he plays (recent trend). I hope RJ keeps bringing the same energy and rebounds well enough to compensate for his lack of lateral quickness on defense and occasional shooting slump on offense.
As far as the 4-5 positions are concerned, I think Duncan will play a boatload of minutes, possibly being as high as 37 or 38. Blair is still young and Pop might shy away from using him in critical situations; albeit, he would probably play 10-15 minutes as part of relief/going small.
That would leave about 43-49 minutes for the other bigs. We already know that Ian will not play unless it's garbage time. Thus, minutes will probably be shared between Bonner and McDyess, although I have no idea how much each gets - maybe depending on how hot their shooting is, since their defense isn't much nowadays. Pop has played with their minutes so much that I'm considering making it a video game - I'll call it: how to randomly assign minutes to your power forwards and pull a championship out of your arse.
Finally, the big pink elephant in the room: going small. I wish it did not exist. I wish it mated with a cow, gotten mad and died before the play-offs started. I am just perplexed how it fails every time it's being used, yet we still go there. I would rather see Bonner clank 3s and miss rebounds than RJ being abused in the paint. Nevertheless, we all know it would happen, so most probably 10-15 minutes of the Bonner/McDyess time would be given to small ball and RMJ/Bogans on the court. (I know, I know it goes against my 2nd assumption - but I did say it was more of a wish, didn't I?)
In conclusion, holding all assumptions true, I really like the healthy Spurs at the 1-2-3-4 while playing big. We would probably need Bonner to shoot .500 from 3 to compete for a championship, in addition to couple of injuries here and there by our main competitors. (LAL, DAL, CLE, ORL)
Please feel free to express your opinion and critique as well as refrain from bashing. Albeit, it's a forum, so have at it.
Couple of things we already know: the star players will have their PT increased and the rotation will be cut to 7-8 players.
My 1st assumption (full of optimism): Tony Parker recovers in 4 weeks, plays 4-5 games before the start of the play-offs and is completely healed from the hand and hip injuries as well as plantar fasciitis.
My 2nd assumption (idem): Bogans plays limited minutes. I admit that this one is more of a personal wish than an assumption. Regardless.
Since 3 of our most talented players - Hill, Parker and Ginobili - play the 1 and 2 spots, I would not put it past Pop to play a combo of Hill, Parker, Gino and RJ at the 1, 2 and 3.
I would imagine that all 4 of them would average about 36 minutes, which adds up to 144 for the game. The starting line-up would be Parker-Hill-RJ and would change to Parker-Gino-RJ to Parker-Hill-Gino and to Hill-Gino-RJ as the game goes.
If this were the case with the 1-2-3 positions, I would be happy enough. A healthy Parker, more experienced Hill and full-strength Gino would be strong enough for a championship run; even if RJ has his faults, he has proven to have a good game for every two he plays (recent trend). I hope RJ keeps bringing the same energy and rebounds well enough to compensate for his lack of lateral quickness on defense and occasional shooting slump on offense.
As far as the 4-5 positions are concerned, I think Duncan will play a boatload of minutes, possibly being as high as 37 or 38. Blair is still young and Pop might shy away from using him in critical situations; albeit, he would probably play 10-15 minutes as part of relief/going small.
That would leave about 43-49 minutes for the other bigs. We already know that Ian will not play unless it's garbage time. Thus, minutes will probably be shared between Bonner and McDyess, although I have no idea how much each gets - maybe depending on how hot their shooting is, since their defense isn't much nowadays. Pop has played with their minutes so much that I'm considering making it a video game - I'll call it: how to randomly assign minutes to your power forwards and pull a championship out of your arse.
Finally, the big pink elephant in the room: going small. I wish it did not exist. I wish it mated with a cow, gotten mad and died before the play-offs started. I am just perplexed how it fails every time it's being used, yet we still go there. I would rather see Bonner clank 3s and miss rebounds than RJ being abused in the paint. Nevertheless, we all know it would happen, so most probably 10-15 minutes of the Bonner/McDyess time would be given to small ball and RMJ/Bogans on the court. (I know, I know it goes against my 2nd assumption - but I did say it was more of a wish, didn't I?)
In conclusion, holding all assumptions true, I really like the healthy Spurs at the 1-2-3-4 while playing big. We would probably need Bonner to shoot .500 from 3 to compete for a championship, in addition to couple of injuries here and there by our main competitors. (LAL, DAL, CLE, ORL)
Please feel free to express your opinion and critique as well as refrain from bashing. Albeit, it's a forum, so have at it.