Advanced Standings for teams with winning records

[Findog]

Cleveland: 25-12 against teams with winning records, +20 Road Win/Home Loss Differential, +7.1 Point Differential

Orlando: 21-14, +13 RW/HL, + 6.7 PD
LA: 24-16, + 14 RW/HL, +6.0 PD
Denver: 24-14, +12 RW/HL, +5.2 PD
Utah: 24-18, +9 RW/HL, +5.1 PD
San Antonio: 15-20, +6 RW/HL, +5.0 PD
Atlanta: 18-16, +10 RW/HL, + 4.7 PD
Boston: 16-16, +10 RW/HL, +4.2 PD
Zombie Sonics: 16-20, +8 RW/HL, +3.5 PD
Phoenix: 17-21, +7 RW/HL, + 3.4 PD
Portland: 19-21, +6 RW/HL, +3.2 PD
Dallas: 23-15, +12 RW/HL, + 2.1 PD
Milwaukee: 12-20, +4 RW/HL, +1.8 PD
Miami: 13-26, Even RW/HL, +1.4 PD
Charlotte: 17-20, +2 RW/HL, +1.1 PD
Houston, 17-22, Even RW/HL, +0.2 PD
Memphis: 14-24, Even RW/HL, -0.6 PD

[Findog]

Spurs 39-25, 14-20 against teams with winning records, 25-5 against crap teams. :wow

[j.dizzle]

No surprises here, the top 4 on this list will be in the conference finals

[Ghazi]

I think the Mavs are much better than their margin of victory indicates.

Also, the Spurs are not as good as their margin of victory indicates... bottom line is they have a lousy record against the better teams.

[Findog]

No surprises here, the top 4 on this list will be in the conference finals

Most likely.

[John Hollinger]

These standings are clearly flawed. yes, they include point differential, but clearly when you adjust these standings, you'll see that a win isn't a win. In some cases, a win is a loss. I deduced that after you factor in travel time (including the comfort rating assigned to the seats on the plane), stadium air quality, origami skills, general flatulence, on-court stagnation when facing an opponent whose off-court left hand efficiency rating is less than 4.6893875745, and their free throw attempts to gatorade ratio, these are the true ratings:

1. Utah 9.938757483833282
2. Milwaukee 9.918273745758483
3. Los Angeles 2.194875748
4. Cleveland 2.0489839394
5. Orlando 1.9838458959
6. Miami 1.947646363
7. Portland 1.8884574743783734
8. Charlotte 1.821374745
9. Denver 1.7846474784
10. Atlanta 1.77484859934783
11. San Antonio 1.7173289489
12. Memphis 1.697848347845
13. Boston 1.618284993783
14. OKC 1.5586945
15. Houston 1.48273747473
16. Phoenix 1.1948573473
17. Dallas -6.8586969473

[Ghazi]

Most likely.

After we bukkake the Nuggets on the 29th, we will have secured the 2nd seed and the home court will allow us to take them down in the WCSF :)

[j.dizzle]

These standings are clearly flawed. yes, they include point differential, but clearly when you adjust these standings, you'll see that a win isn't a win. In some cases, a win is a loss. I deduced that after you factor in travel time (including the comfort rating assigned to the seats on the plane), stadium air quality, origami skills, general flatulence, on-court stagnation when facing an opponent whose off-court left hand efficiency rating is less than 4.6893875745, and their free throw attempts to gatorade ratio, these are the true ratings:

1. Utah 9.938757483833282
2. Milwaukee 9.918273745758483
3. Los Angeles 2.194875748
4. Cleveland 2.0489839394
5. Orlando 1.9838458959
6. Miami 1.947646363
7. Portland 1.8884574743783734
8. Charlotte 1.821374745
9. Denver 1.7846474784
10. Atlanta 1.77484859934783
11. San Antonio 1.7173289489
12. Memphis 1.697848347845
13. Boston 1.618284993783
14. OKC 1.5586945
15. Houston 1.48273747473
16. Phoenix 1.1948573473
17. Dallas -6.8586969473
:lol The fact that you wasted this much time tells me that Hollinger is doing a great job getting ppl to read his shit & probably making good money doing it.

[j.dizzle]

After we bukkake the Nuggets on the 29th, we will have secured the 2nd seed and the home court will allow us to take them down in the WCSF :)
Dallas should get the 2 seed IMO..Denver has a pretty damn hard schedule to finish the season & Dallas has a pretty easy one..It all comes down to Kenyon Martin..If he's healthy I think they can beat Dallas without HCA. If he's out then Dallas can beat them.

[badfish22]

It all comes down to HCA for me. If Denver has it, the Mavs have a very little chance to beat them, and vice-versa.

[Findog]

Denver Remaining Sched:

@ HOU
vs. WASH (B2B)
vs. NOLA
vs. MIL
@ NY
@ BOS (B2B)
@ TOR
@ ORL
@ DAL (B2B)
vs. PORT
vs. LAC
@ Zombie Sonics
vs. LAL (B2B)
vs. SAS
VS. MEM
@ PHX (B2B)

8 Home, 8 Road, 11 vs +.500 teams, 5 B2Bs

[Findog]

Dallas Remaining Sched:

vs. CHI
vs. BOS
@ NOLA
vs. LAC (B2B)
@ PORT
@ GS
vs. DEN
@ MEM
vs. ORL (B2B)
vs. Zombie Sonics
vs. MEM
@ PORT
@ SAC (B2B)
@ LAC
vs SAS

8 Home, 7 Road, 9 vs +.500 teams, 3 B2Bs

[sribb43]

That last game against SAS is at home

[Trainwreck2100]

That last game against SAS is at home

that game might not be for shit though

[Findog]

That last game against SAS is at home

Duly edited

[Findog]

Yeah, based on the remaining scheds (Dallas has it easier), that game against the Nuggz at the AAC is gonna be for the 2 seed.

[SomeCallMeTim]

These standings are clearly flawed. yes, they include point differential, but clearly when you adjust these standings, you'll see that a win isn't a win. In some cases, a win is a loss. I deduced that after you factor in travel time (including the comfort rating assigned to the seats on the plane), stadium air quality, origami skills, general flatulence, on-court stagnation when facing an opponent whose off-court left hand efficiency rating is less than 4.6893875745, and their free throw attempts to gatorade ratio, these are the true ratings:

1. Utah 9.938757483833282
2. Milwaukee 9.918273745758483
3. Los Angeles 2.194875748
4. Cleveland 2.0489839394
5. Orlando 1.9838458959
6. Miami 1.947646363
7. Portland 1.8884574743783734
8. Charlotte 1.821374745
9. Denver 1.7846474784
10. Atlanta 1.77484859934783
11. San Antonio 1.7173289489
12. Memphis 1.697848347845
13. Boston 1.618284993783
14. OKC 1.5586945
15. Houston 1.48273747473
16. Phoenix 1.1948573473
17. Dallas -6.8586969473

nicely done. :lol

[DesignatedT]

That last game against SAS is at home

i think this game is going to mean a ton for both sides.

[Red Hawk #21]

Call me crazy but for some reason I think the Oklahoma City Thunder can beat the Lakers in a series...

[SomeCallMeTim]

I think the Mavs are much better than their margin of victory indicates.

I actually agree with this. They have a pretty low PD and most of the time that would indicate non-contender... but especially post-trade that is looking more and more flukish. The fluky blowout loss against the Knicks really screwed with it. Couple that with a bunch of close wins in the streak and the numbers say they're just a good team but nothing special. But I'm not buying that.

I'm still trying to decide if Denver or Dallas is more dangerous to LA.

[Allanon]

Call me crazy but for some reason I think the Oklahoma City Thunder can beat the Lakers in a series...

You're crazy...that's the one team the Lakers would sweep in the first round :lol Most of the other series look good but this OKC one would be an easy out for the Lakers.

Lakers have been very good (surprisingly) this year at beating teams they're supposed to beat

[Findog]

Call me crazy but for some reason I think the Oklahoma City Thunder can beat the Lakers in a series...

Collison is the only guy on that team with playoff experience, they have a losing record against teams with winning records and they'd be without HCA. They wouldn't beat the Lakers.

They are like the 2001 Mavericks or 2009 Blazers - young team on the ascent. They will need a favorable matchup to advance. The best matchup for them is probably either the Jazz or the Spurs, and I don't see how they can face San Antonio.

[SomeCallMeTim]

Call me crazy but for some reason I think the Oklahoma City Thunder can beat the Lakers in a series...

It is possible, I suppose... that's why the play the games after all.

But I think the more likely outcome would be LA destroying OKC. Westbrook would cause problems but other than that the Lakers have answers for the Thunder threats (yes, that includes Durant) while OKC has no answers for Gasol, Bynum, and even Odom.

Throw in HCA for LA and almost zero postseason experience on OKC's roster... I think it would get ugly quick.

[badfish22]

Call me crazy but for some reason I think the Oklahoma City Thunder can beat the Lakers in a series...

I don't see that. Westbrook would probably go off, but Pau and Bynum are too much for OKC to stop.

An upset I could see happening is Phoenix over Denver. PHO matches up well with the Thuggs. I'm hoping they see each other in the first round.

[Findog]

Because of the raucous crowds in Hijacker City, the Zombie Sonics shouldn't get swept by whomever they play, but I would take the Lakers in 5 against Durant and Co.

[Allanon]

I'm still trying to decide if Denver or Dallas is more dangerous to LA.

I would say it's very equal.

Good thing Lakers only need to play against one since they're 2 and 3 in the standings and only 1 can advance.

[Findog]

I actually agree with this. They have a pretty low PD and most of the time that would indicate non-contender... but especially post-trade that is looking more and more flukish. The fluky blowout loss against the Knicks really screwed with it. Couple that with a bunch of close wins in the streak and the numbers say they're just a good team but nothing special. But I'm not buying that.

I'm still trying to decide if Denver or Dallas is more dangerous to LA.

Of all these teams, here are the best winning percentages against other +.500 teams:

1. Cleveland 67%
2. Denver 65%
3. Dallas 61%
4. Orlando and LA 60%

[Red Hawk #21]

Collison is the only guy on that team with playoff experience, they have a losing record against teams with winning records and they'd be without HCA. They wouldn't beat the Lakers.

They are like the 2001 Mavericks or 2009 Blazers - young team on the ascent. They will need a favorable matchup to advance. The best matchup for them is probably either the Jazz or the Spurs, and I don't see how they can face San Antonio.

Yea, You're probably right. Im probably just overrating them because I've seen them play some really good games. One thing I know for sure is that they're gunna be really really good in the future, probably a championship contender. They will need to make moves for a post presence though to do this. I still remember making a thread like two seasons ago talking about how I felt bad for the Thunder because they kept losing lol, now look at them now playing championship level defense. I just hope they don't go the route of the 2009 blazers though...

[I-Ball]

Yea, You're probably right. Im probably just overrating them because I've seen them play some really good games. One thing I know for sure is that they're gunna be really really good in the future, probably a championship contender. They will need to make moves for a post presence though to do this. I still remember making a thread like two seasons ago talking about how I felt bad for the Thunder because they kept losing lol, now look at them now playing championship level defense. I just hope they don't go the route of the 2009 blazers though...

you mean the direct shortcut to the next hospital? :lol

kidding aside, i think baring some serious injuries OKC can become the next mavs (there are similarities in durants and dirks game, no real post presence).
that doesn't mean they will win a championship in the next few years, but they should be a regular play off team which can make some noise under the right circumstances.

[21_Blessings]

Dallas is not a contender. Stop trying to convince yourself Fin. You too Ghazi, you little bitch.

[Findog]

Dallas is not a contender. Stop trying to convince yourself Fin. You too Ghazi, you little bitch.

This thread isn't about the Mavericks. It's about metrics for all teams with winning records.

[alchemist]

Mavs. The kings of regular season :lobt2:'s

:toast :downspin:

[Findog]

Mavs. The kings of regular season :lobt2:'s

:toast :downspin:

alchemist. The king of sucking cock.

[Findog]

Here's something interesting. Since Carlisle took over and Jason Kidd was freed from the tyrannical clutches of Avery Johnson, the Mavs are:

34-11 in games decided by 5 points or less
16-3 in games decided by 3 points or less
4-1 in games decided by a single point

[DPG21920]

Here's something interesting. Since Carlisle took over and Jason Kidd was freed from the tyrannical clutches of Avery Johnson, the Mavs are:

34-11 in games decided by 5 points or less
16-3 in games decided by 3 points or less
4-1 in games decided by a single point

Yes, but what is the teams win %

[alchemist]

Here's something interesting. Since Carlisle took over and Jason Kidd was freed from the tyrannical clutches of Avery Johnson, the Mavs are:

34-11 in games decided by 5 points or less
16-3 in games decided by 3 points or less
4-1 in games decided by a single point
2nd round exit. Carlisle showing Avery how it's done. :lmao

[Findog]

Yes, but what is the teams win %

Including playoffs, they are 100-59 under Carlisle.

Overall Winning %: 63%
Winning % in games decided by 5 or less:76%
Winning % in games decided by 3 or less: 69%
Winning % in games decided by 1 point: 80%

[badfish22]

Carlisle showing Avery how it's done.

No, they were both able to facerape the spurs :toast

[alchemist]

No, they were both able to facerape the spurs :toast
sadly that is true. :depressed

[DPG21920]

Including playoffs, they are 100-59 under Carlisle.

Overall Winning %: 63%
Winning % in games decided by 5 or less:76%
Winning % in games decided by 3 or less: 69%
Winning % in games decided by 1 point: 80%

What was it with Avery?

[Findog]

What was it with Avery?

Haven't tallied that up. According to the stat nerds, games decided by 5 points or less are essentially coin flip affairs, so the Mavs should've gone 23-22 instead of 34-11. Now a few games in either direction is no big deal, but 11 games? I think a big part of it is having Kidd at the end of games and his decision-making. The Mavs had a rep as poor finishers. I'm guessing that before the 07-08 season, the Mavs won a shitload of close games because they won 60 and 67 games respectively in the regular season, and their winning % in all categories would be pretty gaudy.

[Findog]

Spurs remaining sched:

@ MIA
@ ORL (B2B)
vs GS
@ ATL
@ Zombie Sonics (B2B)
vs LAL
vs CLE
@ BOS
@ NJ (B2B)
vs HOU
vs ORL
@ LAL
@ SAC
@ PHX (B2B)
vs MEM
@ DEN (B2B)
vs MINN
@ DAL

7 Home, 11 Road, 14 vs +.500 teams, 5 B2B

Man, that's brutal

[DPG21920]

That's what I am saying. I think the Mavs %'s with Avery were very similar. They won a lot of close/last second games the year they went to the finals IIRC.

[Findog]

That's what I am saying. I think the Mavs %'s with Avery were very similar. They won a lot of close/last second games the year they went to the finals IIRC.

The stat nerd thesis though is that a team should roughly be around .500 in close games.

The Nets, for instance, this year:

1-13 in games decided by 5 or less
1-7 in games decided by 3 or less
0-1 in games decided by 1 pt

According to Hollinger and other stat nerds, the Nets should have anywhere from 4-8 more wins than they actually do.

[Findog]

That's what I am saying. I think the Mavs %'s with Avery were very similar. They won a lot of close/last second games the year they went to the finals IIRC.

Last season under Avery:

Avery/Devin Harris:

35-18 overall: 66% winning pct.
8-5 in games decided by 5 or less: 61%
4-3 in games decided by 3 or less: 57%
0-0 in games decided by 1 pt

Avery/Jason Kidd:

17-17 overall: 50% winning pct.
1-8 in games decided by 5 or less: 13%
1-3 in games decided by 3 or less: 25%
0-0 in games decided by 1 pt

[Red Hawk #21]

Spurs remaining sched:

@ MIA
@ ORL (B2B)
vs GS
@ ATL
@ Zombie Sonics (B2B)
vs LAL
vs CLE
@ BOS
@ NJ (B2B)
vs HOU
vs ORL
@ LAL
@ SAC
@ PHX (B2B)
vs MEM
@ DEN (B2B)
vs MINN
@ DAL

7 Home, 11 Road, 14 vs +.500 teams, 5 B2B

Man, that's brutal

God thats gunna be a brutal finish for the Spurs, they're gunna have to play really hard to end up not sliding out of the playoff race. We'll see how it plays out.

[Ghazi]

theyll make the playoffs but based on that schedule they shouldnt expect to be higher than a 7 seed.

[Findog]

2006-07 season, 67 wins and upset by Golden State:

67-15 overall: 82% winning pct.
21-5 in games decided by 5 or less: 81%
12-3 in games decided by 3 or less: 80%
3-0 in games decided by 1 pt: 100%

[DPG21920]

2006-07 season, 67 wins and upset by Golden State:

67-15 overall: 82% winning pct.
21-5 in games decided by 5 or less: 81%
12-3 in games decided by 3 or less: 80%
3-0 in games decided by 1 pt: 100%

That is what I was looking for. So you cannot pin everything on Avery. His play calling and coaching style that year lead to disgusting numbers.

[Findog]

That is what I was looking for. So you cannot pin everything on Avery. His play calling and coaching style that year lead to disgusting numbers.

I'm not arguing that. I'm arguing with Hollinger and the other stat nerd thesis that close games are essentially coin flips. The Nets lose this year in close games in proportion to all other games. They argue that the quality of the team doesn't matter, an elite team will be around .500 in close games, a mediocre team will be around .500 and so will a crap team. So the theory goes, in the final two minutes of a game that is still up for grabs, each team has 50% odds of winning, even if it's Lakers versus Nets and against all odds the game is still in doubt 46 minutes in.

The Mavericks win in the same pct in close games or even better it substantially than non-close games. The only discrepancy is the half-season under Avery when trying to incorporate Kidd into the lineup. It's not all on Avery, but it's clear that a major midseason trade threw a monkey wrench into that team:

Last season under Avery:

Avery/Devin Harris:

35-18 overall: 66% winning pct.
8-5 in games decided by 5 or less: 61%
4-3 in games decided by 3 or less: 57%
0-0 in games decided by 1 pt

Avery/Jason Kidd:

17-17 overall: 50% winning pct.
1-8 in games decided by 5 or less: 13%
1-3 in games decided by 3 or less: 25%
0-0 in games decided by 1 pt

[Killakobe81]

These standings are clearly flawed. yes, they include point differential, but clearly when you adjust these standings, you'll see that a win isn't a win. In some cases, a win is a loss. I deduced that after you factor in travel time (including the comfort rating assigned to the seats on the plane), stadium air quality, origami skills, general flatulence, on-court stagnation when facing an opponent whose off-court left hand efficiency rating is less than 4.6893875745, and their free throw attempts to gatorade ratio, these are the true ratings:

1. Utah 9.938757483833282
2. Milwaukee 9.918273745758483
3. Los Angeles 2.194875748
4. Cleveland 2.0489839394
5. Orlando 1.9838458959
6. Miami 1.947646363
7. Portland 1.8884574743783734
8. Charlotte 1.821374745
9. Denver 1.7846474784
10. Atlanta 1.77484859934783
11. San Antonio 1.7173289489
12. Memphis 1.697848347845
13. Boston 1.618284993783
14. OKC 1.5586945
15. Houston 1.48273747473
16. Phoenix 1.1948573473
17. Dallas -6.8586969473

LOL who is this troll? i like this guy!!!
Well written sly and sarcastic!!! good shit!!

[badfish22]

It basically because of Dirk. If you read this thread http://www.sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/viewtopic.php?t=2520 It shows that Dirks Mavs have always been amazing in the clutch. Better than any other team this decade.

[Findog]

Updated:

Cleveland: 25-12, +20 RW/HL, +7.3 PD
Orlando: 21-14, +13 RW/HL, + 6.7 PD
LA: 24-16, + 14 RW/HL, +6.0 PD
Utah: 24-18, +9 RW/HL, +5.4 PD
Denver: 24-14, +12 RW/HL, +5.2 PD
San Antonio: 15-20, +6 RW/HL, +5.1 PD
Atlanta: 18-16, +10 RW/HL, + 5.0 PD
Boston: 16-16, +10 RW/HL, +4.5 PD
Phoenix: 17-21, +7 RW/HL, + 4.0 PD
Zombie Sonics: 16-20, +8 RW/HL, +3.5 PD
Portland: 19-21, +6 RW/HL, +3.2 PD
Dallas: 23-15, +12 RW/HL, + 2.1 PD
Milwaukee: 12-20, +4 RW/HL, +1.8 PD
Miami: 13-26, Even RW/HL, +1.1 PD
Charlotte: 17-20, +2 RW/HL, +1.0 PD
Houston, 17-22, Even RW/HL, +0.2 PD
Memphis: 14-24, Even RW/HL, -0.5 PD

[Findog]

Updated:

Cleveland: 27-13, 16-3 H, 11-10 R, +22 RW/HL, 7.6 PD
Orlando 26-16, 16-6 H, 10-10 R, +15 RW/HL, 6.9 PD
LA Lakers: 26-17, 16-5 H, 10-12 R, +16 RW/HL, 6.1 PD
Utah: 27-19, 18-5 H, 9-14 R, +10 RW/HL, 6.0 PD
Denver: 25-16, 17-4 H, 8-12 R, +11 RW/HL, 4.8 PD
Atlanta: 23-21, 15-5 H, 8-13 R, +10 RW/HL, 4.7 PD
Boston: 22-17, 9-9 H, 13-8 R, +12 RW/HL, 4.6 PD
San Antonio: 17-24, 10-10 H, 9-14 R, +6 RW/HL, 4.6 PD
Phoenix: 21-21, 13-8 H, 8-13 R, +8 RW/HL, 4.0 PD
Zombie Sonics: 19-22, 11-9 H, 8-13 R, +8 RW/HL, 3.5 PD
Portland: 21-22, 11-10 H, 10-11 R, +6 RW/HL, 3.0 PD
Dallas: 24-17, 13-7 H, 11-10 R, + 11 RW/HL, 1.9 PD
Milwaukee: 16-21, 12-6 H, 4-15 R, +5 RW/HL, 1.5 PD
Charlotte: 19-23, 14-6 H, 5-17 R, +3 RW/HL, 1.3 PD
Miami: 15-29, 9-14 H, 6-15 R, Even RW/HL, 1.2 PD
Houston: 19-25, 12-11 H, 7-14 R, +1 RW/HL, 0.0 PD
Memphis: 16-25, 10-13 H, 6-12 R, +1 RW/HL, -0.4 PD
Toronto: 11-29, 10-10 H, 1-19 R, Even RW/HL, -2.2 PD

[Red Hawk #21]

Call me crazy but for some reason I think the Oklahoma City Thunder can beat the Lakers in a series...

Yes, I know its only a regular season game but...