timvp
03-16-2010, 09:02 AM
At 39-25, the San Antonio Spurs are heading into the daunting end to their 2009-2010 regular season schedule. Of their last 18 games, 14 are against teams with plus-.500 records, 11 are on the road and four are on the second night of a back-to-back. In fact, from here on out San Antonio has no more than one day off between games.
To make things even more difficult, the Spurs will face the homestretch without All-Star point guard Tony Parker for quite possibly the duration. These 18 games are going to be difficult to survive -- much less thrive.
The good news is the Spurs have actually racked up wins as of late and, barring a total collapse, appear to be a shoo-in for the playoffs. Feasting on a relatively easy set of games, the Spurs have won seven of their last eight outings. As it stands, the Spurs have a five and a half game cushion over the 9th seeded Rockets.
While the Spurs are a longshot to make noise in the playoffs, a strong sprint to the finish line could very well crack the door open a bit.
Tony Parker
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/3527.jpg
After struggling with a variety of injuries, Tony Parker's sub par season was put to bed by a broken hand. After a career-year last season, Parker came crashing down this season. A combination of injuries and a lack of cohesion with the new players sent him into a tailspin that he never fully righted.
That said, hope isn't completely loss. If he can return early from injury and play at least a few regular season games, I'm confident he could quickly round into form. Out of the Big 3, Parker is the one who relies least on rhythm; he has repeatedly shown the ability to shake off rust with ease.
In a perfect world, Parker would use this time to let his nagging injuries heal and then come out with boundless energy for the postseason. It's unlikely to happen that way ... but let a Spurs fan dream a little bit.
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Tim Duncan
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/3173.jpg
Last year at this time, Tim Duncan was battling a pair of painful knees and his discomfort was obvious in his lack of production. Although masked by the recent wins, Duncan's numbers have taken a similar nosedive this season. Since the All-Star break, he's only averaging 16.1 points and 9.4 rebounds on 46% shooting from the floor.
I'm not quite read to panic because the Spurs haven't been riding him too much lately. Plus, his movements don't look nearly as slow as they did at this point last year. The story will be told during these final 18 games. If Duncan is again breaking down physically, he won't be able to hide it.
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Manu Ginobili
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/3380.jpg
Since the beginning of February, Manu Ginobili has once again become a force. In February, he averaged 18.5 points, 4.7 assists and 4.5 rebounds while shooting 45.1% from the field and 35.8% on three-pointers. March has seen him play even better: 18.9 points, 6.0 assists, 4.0 rebounds on 54% shooting and 47.2% on threes.
As has been the case all season, his passing has been outstanding recently. In February, his jumping ability improved, which allowed him to finish at the rim. Now that he's shooting well from the perimeter, the only difference between this Ginobili and Ginobili in his prime is fewer dunks and thinner hair.
Right now, Ginobili is playing well enough for the Spurs to be an elite team. The trick is to get a few others to follow and have Ginobili stay healthy.
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George Hill
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/images/basketball/nba/players/4488.jpg
George Hill continues to blossom before our eyes. His breakout month was in February when he averaged 15.9 points, 3.1 assists and 3.4 rebounds, while shooting 46.3% from the field and 37.1% from beyond the arc. This month, Hill has taken his game to a higher level. His averages in March are 16.6 points, 5.0 assists and 3.4 rebounds on 55.3% shooting from the floor and 63.2% on three-pointers.
We're even starting to see some playmaking ability out of Hill. In the last game against the Clippers, he had ten assists in the first half alone. Though it is rare for a player to make a substantial jump in their playmaking ability after the start of their NBA career, it has happened in the past (See: Billups, Chauncey).
The other exciting aspect of Hill's game is how confident he has become on three-pointers -- especially from the corners. If he keeps making strides in playmaking while adding range on his jumper, the sky is the limit for the second-year guard.
-------------------------------
Richard Jefferson
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/3523.jpg
During Richard Jefferson's early-season struggles, I called for him to do three basic things: play hard on defense, run the court and rebound. As of late, he's starting to do all three of those things. Although his scoring has been hit and miss, he's become a much more well-rounded player. He's obviously not worth the money the Spurs are paying him but his possession to possession impact on the game has become more consistent.
In the last ten games, Jefferson is averaging 6.9 rebounds per contest. He's been especially good at pulling down contested boards late in games. Offensively, he has been effective in transition -- particularly when he's paired with Ginobili. On the defensive end, his sloppiness is becoming less and less of a problem.
I was also impressed with how Jefferson handled getting sent to the bench for a stretch of games coming out of the All-Star break. Instead of pouting, he worked harder and concentrated more of the things he could control. There might be hope for Jefferson yet.
-------------------------------
Antonio McDyess
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/3004.jpg
It's been a struggle for McDyess to put everything together. Some games he's hitting his jumpers, some games he's playing good D and some games he's rebounding well. Unfortunately, he rarely masters all three aspects simultaneously. From game to game, it's impossible to know what to expect out of him.
Recently, McDyess has rebounded well and his defense has improved. He still makes mistakes on rotations but the effort is there and the advancements he's making are easy to see. Offensively is where McDyess is currently struggling the most. His automatic jumper hasn't been so automatic and he's having trouble finishing around the rim.
McDyess historically plays better as the regular season progresses. Let's hope his best is still ahead of him.
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Keith Bogans
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/3746.jpg
Keith Bogans is a tough dude to figure out. He is supposedly a defensive stopper but his effectiveness on that end of the court is so wildly inconsistent. One minute he'll be locking up a perimeter star, the next moment he'll be getting eaten alive by a no-name. Recently, there have been times when he's looked very good on defense ... but it never lasts very long.
Pop remains high on Bogans' potential impact on the team -- going as far as to call him the "centerpiece". I just don't think it's going to happen. He's not big, quick or athletic enough to be a stopper. He gives the effort but a lot of time that effort turns into dumb fouls. Offensively, he's never going to produce well enough on that end to justify being on the court unless he's playing stellar defense.
After starting 11 straight games, Bogans has come off the bench in the last two outings. Personally, I hope it stays that way.
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DeJuan Blair
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/4642.jpg
DeJuan Blair is still producing well on a per-minute basis, however his production has fallen off since the All-Star break. He went from averaging 20.2 points and 17.1 rebounds per 48 minutes before the break to averaging 19.3 points and 13.4 rebounds per 48 minutes after the break. Still solid numbers but there are definitely signs that the long season is taking its toll on the rookie.
Despite the dip in production, Blair is improving in some areas. He's defending better, he's passing better and he's better understanding spacing on the offensive end. Blair has proven to be a quick learner -- which bodes well for his future in the league.
For the Spurs to have any sort of shot, they need Blair to find a second wind at some point before the playoffs.
-------------------------------
Matt Bonner
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/3748.jpg
Pop inserted Matt Bonner into the starting lineup coming out of the All-Star break. That move was such a disaster that Bonner not only lost the starting job, he fell completely out of the rotation. Left for dead, Bonner has resurfaced in March and is now playing some of his best basketball of the season.
For the month, Bonner is averaging 11.1 points on 51.9% shooting from the field and 48.5% from long range. He's once again shooting with confidence and he's also mixing in solid defense -- both individually and in the pick-and-roll. On the season, Bonner continues to easily lead the team in plus/minus per minute at .216, which is more than 40% better than his closest competition (Duncan at .152).
Since returning from injury, the main negative with Bonner has been a lack of rebounding. He averaged 10.7 rebounds per 48 minutes prior to breaking his hand. In 23 games since his return, Bonner is averaging 7.0 boards per 48 minutes.
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Roger Mason, Jr.
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/images/basketball/nba/players/3628.jpg
To begin the season, Roger Mason, Jr. couldn't do much of anything right. He eventually found a rhythm and was useful for a few months in the middle of the year. But then around the time his agent started talking about wanting a trade, Mason's game has regressed to the point that he's almost worthless.
Since the All-Star break, Mason is shooting 27.9% from the field and 20.0% on three-pointers. His shooting woes are coming at a bad time because he was in line for more minutes with Parker out. Pop is still playing him but his hold on a spot in the rotation is tenuous.
Mason's time with the Spurs is coming to an end. Before the time runs out, it'd be nice if he could start connecting on a few shots from the perimeter.
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Malik Hairston
http://img14.imageshack.us/img14/8769/malikhairstongt.jpg
Since being recalled from the Austin Toros, I've been impressed with the strides Malik Hairston has made. He has obviously been working on his ballhandling; Pop has even utilized him a point guard for a few possessions. Hairston can now use his dribble to beat him man and get all the way to the rim. We are still waiting on his three-point shot to translate to the NBA level but in the meantime he's knocked down a few long twos.
Defensively, Hairston has a lot of promise. You can tell wants to be a really good defender, which is half the battle in itself. He uses his superb athleticism and timing to challenge shots -- both out on the perimeter and at the rim. If he can rein in fouls and make rotations just a little bit quicker, Pop will hopefully find it difficult to keep Hairston off the floor.
-------------------------------
Ian Mahinmi
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/3954.jpg
Ian Mahinmi remains an enigma wrapped in a riddle locked in Pop's doghouse. When he hits the court, he just becomes more of a mystery. At this point, I've given up on figuring out what the plan is for Mahinmi. Like the rest of Spurs Nation, I'm left to try to decifer his potential from the bits and pieces we see of him.
Yes, Mahinmi makes his share of mistakes. But his athletic ability and size are a rarely found combination. He has a good set of offensive moves and he's an active defender. I'm not convinced he's some sort of savior in hiding, although I'm also not convinced Mahinmi doesn't have an NBA career.
Hopefully this story has a happy ending. Right now, it looks like the Mahinmi chapter will be one of the oddest footnotes in Spurs history.
-------------------------------
Cedric Jackson
http://blog.cleveland.com/sports/csu_impact/2009/02/small_Cedric-Jackson.jpg
The Spurs signed Cedric Jackson to a ten-day contract and the 6-foot-3 point guard already has some memorable moments. Regarded as a good defensive player, I like the toughness he provides on that end of the court.
Against the Clippers, he had three steals and two blocks in 15 minutes of action. Jackson defended well against speed and also showed an ability to battle bigger players down low. He's skinny but he puts up a good fight.
Offensively, I'm not quite as impressed. He has a violent form on his jumper, which also has a low release. Jackson is aggressive on offense but you can tell he's a converted shooting guard by the way he runs pick-and-rolls and his limited court vision. That said, his defense alone could make him a worthwhile prospect.
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Gregg Popovich
http://dailyelements.com/pop-stoic.jpg
I'm really interested to see how Pop handles the stretch run. He has to juggle trying to win games with trying to keep Duncan and Ginobili fresh for the playoffs. If Parker is able to return, how Pop integrates him back into the lineup will also be of interest.
With Mason and Bogans underwhelming with their play, will Pop give Hairston a shot to earn minutes? Will Mahinmi be given a chance? Can Pop find roles that will allow Jefferson and McDyess to flourish? Will Pop keep trusting Blair late into the season? Even though the end is in sight, it seems like the questions are just beginning. (Then again, going an entire season without setting a rotation will have that effect.)
-------------------------------
To make things even more difficult, the Spurs will face the homestretch without All-Star point guard Tony Parker for quite possibly the duration. These 18 games are going to be difficult to survive -- much less thrive.
The good news is the Spurs have actually racked up wins as of late and, barring a total collapse, appear to be a shoo-in for the playoffs. Feasting on a relatively easy set of games, the Spurs have won seven of their last eight outings. As it stands, the Spurs have a five and a half game cushion over the 9th seeded Rockets.
While the Spurs are a longshot to make noise in the playoffs, a strong sprint to the finish line could very well crack the door open a bit.
Tony Parker
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/3527.jpg
After struggling with a variety of injuries, Tony Parker's sub par season was put to bed by a broken hand. After a career-year last season, Parker came crashing down this season. A combination of injuries and a lack of cohesion with the new players sent him into a tailspin that he never fully righted.
That said, hope isn't completely loss. If he can return early from injury and play at least a few regular season games, I'm confident he could quickly round into form. Out of the Big 3, Parker is the one who relies least on rhythm; he has repeatedly shown the ability to shake off rust with ease.
In a perfect world, Parker would use this time to let his nagging injuries heal and then come out with boundless energy for the postseason. It's unlikely to happen that way ... but let a Spurs fan dream a little bit.
-------------------------------
Tim Duncan
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/3173.jpg
Last year at this time, Tim Duncan was battling a pair of painful knees and his discomfort was obvious in his lack of production. Although masked by the recent wins, Duncan's numbers have taken a similar nosedive this season. Since the All-Star break, he's only averaging 16.1 points and 9.4 rebounds on 46% shooting from the floor.
I'm not quite read to panic because the Spurs haven't been riding him too much lately. Plus, his movements don't look nearly as slow as they did at this point last year. The story will be told during these final 18 games. If Duncan is again breaking down physically, he won't be able to hide it.
-------------------------------
Manu Ginobili
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/3380.jpg
Since the beginning of February, Manu Ginobili has once again become a force. In February, he averaged 18.5 points, 4.7 assists and 4.5 rebounds while shooting 45.1% from the field and 35.8% on three-pointers. March has seen him play even better: 18.9 points, 6.0 assists, 4.0 rebounds on 54% shooting and 47.2% on threes.
As has been the case all season, his passing has been outstanding recently. In February, his jumping ability improved, which allowed him to finish at the rim. Now that he's shooting well from the perimeter, the only difference between this Ginobili and Ginobili in his prime is fewer dunks and thinner hair.
Right now, Ginobili is playing well enough for the Spurs to be an elite team. The trick is to get a few others to follow and have Ginobili stay healthy.
-------------------------------
George Hill
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/images/basketball/nba/players/4488.jpg
George Hill continues to blossom before our eyes. His breakout month was in February when he averaged 15.9 points, 3.1 assists and 3.4 rebounds, while shooting 46.3% from the field and 37.1% from beyond the arc. This month, Hill has taken his game to a higher level. His averages in March are 16.6 points, 5.0 assists and 3.4 rebounds on 55.3% shooting from the floor and 63.2% on three-pointers.
We're even starting to see some playmaking ability out of Hill. In the last game against the Clippers, he had ten assists in the first half alone. Though it is rare for a player to make a substantial jump in their playmaking ability after the start of their NBA career, it has happened in the past (See: Billups, Chauncey).
The other exciting aspect of Hill's game is how confident he has become on three-pointers -- especially from the corners. If he keeps making strides in playmaking while adding range on his jumper, the sky is the limit for the second-year guard.
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Richard Jefferson
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/3523.jpg
During Richard Jefferson's early-season struggles, I called for him to do three basic things: play hard on defense, run the court and rebound. As of late, he's starting to do all three of those things. Although his scoring has been hit and miss, he's become a much more well-rounded player. He's obviously not worth the money the Spurs are paying him but his possession to possession impact on the game has become more consistent.
In the last ten games, Jefferson is averaging 6.9 rebounds per contest. He's been especially good at pulling down contested boards late in games. Offensively, he has been effective in transition -- particularly when he's paired with Ginobili. On the defensive end, his sloppiness is becoming less and less of a problem.
I was also impressed with how Jefferson handled getting sent to the bench for a stretch of games coming out of the All-Star break. Instead of pouting, he worked harder and concentrated more of the things he could control. There might be hope for Jefferson yet.
-------------------------------
Antonio McDyess
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/3004.jpg
It's been a struggle for McDyess to put everything together. Some games he's hitting his jumpers, some games he's playing good D and some games he's rebounding well. Unfortunately, he rarely masters all three aspects simultaneously. From game to game, it's impossible to know what to expect out of him.
Recently, McDyess has rebounded well and his defense has improved. He still makes mistakes on rotations but the effort is there and the advancements he's making are easy to see. Offensively is where McDyess is currently struggling the most. His automatic jumper hasn't been so automatic and he's having trouble finishing around the rim.
McDyess historically plays better as the regular season progresses. Let's hope his best is still ahead of him.
-------------------------------
Keith Bogans
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/3746.jpg
Keith Bogans is a tough dude to figure out. He is supposedly a defensive stopper but his effectiveness on that end of the court is so wildly inconsistent. One minute he'll be locking up a perimeter star, the next moment he'll be getting eaten alive by a no-name. Recently, there have been times when he's looked very good on defense ... but it never lasts very long.
Pop remains high on Bogans' potential impact on the team -- going as far as to call him the "centerpiece". I just don't think it's going to happen. He's not big, quick or athletic enough to be a stopper. He gives the effort but a lot of time that effort turns into dumb fouls. Offensively, he's never going to produce well enough on that end to justify being on the court unless he's playing stellar defense.
After starting 11 straight games, Bogans has come off the bench in the last two outings. Personally, I hope it stays that way.
-------------------------------
DeJuan Blair
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/4642.jpg
DeJuan Blair is still producing well on a per-minute basis, however his production has fallen off since the All-Star break. He went from averaging 20.2 points and 17.1 rebounds per 48 minutes before the break to averaging 19.3 points and 13.4 rebounds per 48 minutes after the break. Still solid numbers but there are definitely signs that the long season is taking its toll on the rookie.
Despite the dip in production, Blair is improving in some areas. He's defending better, he's passing better and he's better understanding spacing on the offensive end. Blair has proven to be a quick learner -- which bodes well for his future in the league.
For the Spurs to have any sort of shot, they need Blair to find a second wind at some point before the playoffs.
-------------------------------
Matt Bonner
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/3748.jpg
Pop inserted Matt Bonner into the starting lineup coming out of the All-Star break. That move was such a disaster that Bonner not only lost the starting job, he fell completely out of the rotation. Left for dead, Bonner has resurfaced in March and is now playing some of his best basketball of the season.
For the month, Bonner is averaging 11.1 points on 51.9% shooting from the field and 48.5% from long range. He's once again shooting with confidence and he's also mixing in solid defense -- both individually and in the pick-and-roll. On the season, Bonner continues to easily lead the team in plus/minus per minute at .216, which is more than 40% better than his closest competition (Duncan at .152).
Since returning from injury, the main negative with Bonner has been a lack of rebounding. He averaged 10.7 rebounds per 48 minutes prior to breaking his hand. In 23 games since his return, Bonner is averaging 7.0 boards per 48 minutes.
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Roger Mason, Jr.
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/images/basketball/nba/players/3628.jpg
To begin the season, Roger Mason, Jr. couldn't do much of anything right. He eventually found a rhythm and was useful for a few months in the middle of the year. But then around the time his agent started talking about wanting a trade, Mason's game has regressed to the point that he's almost worthless.
Since the All-Star break, Mason is shooting 27.9% from the field and 20.0% on three-pointers. His shooting woes are coming at a bad time because he was in line for more minutes with Parker out. Pop is still playing him but his hold on a spot in the rotation is tenuous.
Mason's time with the Spurs is coming to an end. Before the time runs out, it'd be nice if he could start connecting on a few shots from the perimeter.
-------------------------------
Malik Hairston
http://img14.imageshack.us/img14/8769/malikhairstongt.jpg
Since being recalled from the Austin Toros, I've been impressed with the strides Malik Hairston has made. He has obviously been working on his ballhandling; Pop has even utilized him a point guard for a few possessions. Hairston can now use his dribble to beat him man and get all the way to the rim. We are still waiting on his three-point shot to translate to the NBA level but in the meantime he's knocked down a few long twos.
Defensively, Hairston has a lot of promise. You can tell wants to be a really good defender, which is half the battle in itself. He uses his superb athleticism and timing to challenge shots -- both out on the perimeter and at the rim. If he can rein in fouls and make rotations just a little bit quicker, Pop will hopefully find it difficult to keep Hairston off the floor.
-------------------------------
Ian Mahinmi
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/3954.jpg
Ian Mahinmi remains an enigma wrapped in a riddle locked in Pop's doghouse. When he hits the court, he just becomes more of a mystery. At this point, I've given up on figuring out what the plan is for Mahinmi. Like the rest of Spurs Nation, I'm left to try to decifer his potential from the bits and pieces we see of him.
Yes, Mahinmi makes his share of mistakes. But his athletic ability and size are a rarely found combination. He has a good set of offensive moves and he's an active defender. I'm not convinced he's some sort of savior in hiding, although I'm also not convinced Mahinmi doesn't have an NBA career.
Hopefully this story has a happy ending. Right now, it looks like the Mahinmi chapter will be one of the oddest footnotes in Spurs history.
-------------------------------
Cedric Jackson
http://blog.cleveland.com/sports/csu_impact/2009/02/small_Cedric-Jackson.jpg
The Spurs signed Cedric Jackson to a ten-day contract and the 6-foot-3 point guard already has some memorable moments. Regarded as a good defensive player, I like the toughness he provides on that end of the court.
Against the Clippers, he had three steals and two blocks in 15 minutes of action. Jackson defended well against speed and also showed an ability to battle bigger players down low. He's skinny but he puts up a good fight.
Offensively, I'm not quite as impressed. He has a violent form on his jumper, which also has a low release. Jackson is aggressive on offense but you can tell he's a converted shooting guard by the way he runs pick-and-rolls and his limited court vision. That said, his defense alone could make him a worthwhile prospect.
-------------------------------
Gregg Popovich
http://dailyelements.com/pop-stoic.jpg
I'm really interested to see how Pop handles the stretch run. He has to juggle trying to win games with trying to keep Duncan and Ginobili fresh for the playoffs. If Parker is able to return, how Pop integrates him back into the lineup will also be of interest.
With Mason and Bogans underwhelming with their play, will Pop give Hairston a shot to earn minutes? Will Mahinmi be given a chance? Can Pop find roles that will allow Jefferson and McDyess to flourish? Will Pop keep trusting Blair late into the season? Even though the end is in sight, it seems like the questions are just beginning. (Then again, going an entire season without setting a rotation will have that effect.)
-------------------------------