Should we be worried about Tim Duncan?

[timvp]

Last season, Tim Duncan broke down physically. From before the All-Star break to after the All-Star break, there was a dramatic dip in production. Unfortunately, this season -- numbers-wise, at least -- is a carbon copy.

Before the All-Star Break
Minutes: 35.3 in '08-09, 32.1 in '09-10
Points: 20.8 in '08-09, 19.4 in '09-10
Rebounds: 10.5 in '08-09, 10.7 in '09-10
FG%: 52.2% in '08-09, 52.7% in '09-10

After the All-Star Break
Minutes: 30.4 in '08-09, 30.8 in '09-10
Points: 16.4 in '08-09, 16.1 in '09-10
Rebounds: 11.0 in '08-09, 9.4 in '09-10
FG%: 46.2% in '08-09, 46.0% in '09-10

I haven't read anything about Duncan saying his knees are bothering him again, so hopefully the numbers are just a coincidence. He doesn't look anywhere near as hobbled as he did last season -- then again, Duncan is good at hiding pain.

I guess we'll see how it plays out but the end of the season could get extremely ugly if Duncan is indeed breaking down again.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

The thing is, he always brings it for the playoffs. I recall him having a very solid series against the Mavs last year. Having said that, the Spurs are already hurting without Parker, a half healthy TD just isn't gonna cut it down the stretch to gear up for the playoffs. I'm actually surprised his rebounding numbers are still at 9 and a half per game, because if anything, to me it felt like he's really been slacking in that department.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Hopefully not, he'd better be gearing up for the important tough run and as you said he doesn't look nearly as hobbled as last season. I remember game 4 of the Dallas series, where in the 3rd quarter he was being guarded 1 on 1 by Ryan Hollins, and with time running out he threw a pass to Parker who was like 3 or 4 feet away from the 3 point line. At that time it was obvious he was having major problems, even if he hadn't complained prior to the playoffs, but you just knew he's not right. I don't get the same feeling right now, so I hope he's not going to suffer a similar breakdown.

[Cane]

His production has been slipping but it doesn't seem like injuries are bothering him. He's also had a lot of games where he was struggling to even buy a bucket; including the games leading up to the All Star game.

Its interesting that he's averaging a minute less but his numbers are fairly decent for a guy averaging less than 31 minutes a game. It'd be interesting to see if his PER, assists, blocks, etc got much of a shift too.

[Spurminator]

His numbers were down post-ASG, but aside from RPG they went back up to pre-ASG levels in the Playoffs...

Minutes: 32.7
Points: 19.8
Rebounds: 8.0
FG%: 53.2%

They'd look even better (23.8, 9.5, 57%) if not for Game 3, where he along with everyone else was awful, and the starters were pulled in the 3rd quarter. So hobbled as he may have been in 2009, if he can play at that level this year then I don't think he's the one we should be worried about... he and Parker were the least of our problems against the Mavs.

[baseline bum]

Shit. Now all we need is to fire Pop to make this trainwreck of a season complete.

[E-RockWill]

He is getting plenty of assists, but what worries me is his apparent tendency to turn the ball over in crunch time. I still think he's healthy overall, but the really bad "passes to nowhere" is a slight cause for concern.

[diego]

probably the two most important things we need from tim right now are rebounding and defense. sure it would be nice if we could depend on him for more scoring, but 15-16 ppg is enough if he is giving us D and rebounding. I'm sure he'll turn it up for the PO, but I also suspect his body isnt quite there for him if someone like delonte west is snatching offensive boards from his finger tips. we can only hope the increased playoff effort comes with an increase in health/stamina.

[ohmwrecker]

I think it's natural to see a dip in production when minutes decrease. Especially for an older guy. Also, I think the Spurs have been concentrating on getting other guys besides Duncan more involved so Pop can start fine tuning his post-season rotations. The Spurs haven't been playing tough teams lately, so they haven't really needed Duncan to win. I am sure we are about to see an increase in production down the final stretch.

[Parker2112]

JUST WATCH HIS LIFT. IF HE'S NOT JUMPING MORE THAN 3 INCHES, HE IS HURTING.

At the begining of the season, he said he needed to ride the other guys this year. That has yet to happen. Yes you should worry. As he should worry about arthritis in his late 30's.

[Leetonidas]

His minutes are down a little bit and the other players have been stepping it up lately so that might have something to do with it. I'm sure come playoff time he will be fine, after all he has let us to a title multiple times with nagging injuries.

[z0sa]

At the begining of the season, he said he needed to ride the other guys this year. That has yet to happen.

He specifically said he, and the rest of the team, would be riding Jefferson's production.

Pop has assured that never happens.

[weebo]

Manu's reemergence and GHill's emergence might have something to do with his production post all-star break. I think Timmy realizes that he can no longer bare all the responsibility himself and is now just pacing himself for this next stretch of tough games.

[TIMMYD!]

I don't think this is the same situation as last year at all, Tim is just taking it a bit easy because he knows he can't go full force if he wants to be healthy for the playoffs and since Manu is back he's kinda taken a backseat to the action.

[phxspurfan]

Pop has done everything he can to limit TD's minutes and keep him fresh. It's been well chronicled that he plays fewer regular season minutes than your average star. If TD isn't producing as much right now, it can either be because of

an injury we don't know about

slow decline due to age

fewer minutes due to blowouts (last game for instance)

Either way, he is human and is declining more slowly than the average big. Look at Elton Brand's stats. He's on the below-average side of player breakdown, at just 28-30.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/brandel01.html

Chris Webber shows a dropoff in games played and production after age 32.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/webbech01.html

Shaq has been good, but inconsistent after 34.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/onealsh01.html

And finally Tim, at age 33, showing only slight declines, as we figured he would, due to less reliance on ath-a-leticism
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/duncati01.html

[xtremesteven33]

The Spurs offense doesnt revolve around Duncan anymore. This whole season has been about getting the new guys involved. If Tim doesnt say anything about his knees, then I assume he will be back to his normal self come playoff time.

[DesignatedT]

We need to seriously sit him on the b2b... even though there big games... he still looks good to me, hes just not needed to be that guy anymore...

[callo1]

Since the Allstar break, the team has relied much less on Timmy. The only decline I have seen in Timmy of late has been his uncharacteristic inability to handle passes to him...almost reminds me of "Hands of Stone" Malike Rose, but I'm sure Timmy just had a few bad games and will break out.

TD is still the man.

[Blackjack]

Worried? Absolutely.

Panicked? Not just yet.

The way Tim started the season offensively, it was hard to believe he could sustain it. It wasn't about the numbers, but the freshness and fluidity he displayed; his shot and the decisiveness in his moves looked as good as ... really ever (he looked that good).
So to see his production taper or to view him not looking as fresh as he did to start the season ... that's somewhat expected.

But given what we saw last year and the degenerative condition he's been plagued with, there is cause for concern. I've never believed Tim was one to pull an 'Horry', simply biding his time and not giving the team an honest effort and the best he had to offer, but I do believe he listened to his body. It's obvious there's been a significant deterioration in the fluidity and crispness in his moves and shot, the question is: Has the pain gotten to the point of being detrimental to his game; or has his body been barking at him telling him he needs to slow it down, and pace himself a little better, if he's to make it through the rest of the season?

It's not the minutes or numbers that worry me ... it's what I see on the court.

He doesn't appear to be injured, but there's clearly the look of fatigue, wear-and-tear and maybe just age, when see those trustworthy hands become fallible and his moves stale.

Hopefully it's a mere precautionary, self-preserving measure.

[nkdlunch]

No

[spurtilldeath]

This alarming, but at the same time, it would be interesting to know the following

1. Timmeh's scoring has gone down because of his touches going down or not?
2. Are his rebounding numbers low of late because his hurting or is it bcoz RJ has been aggressive and collecting a lot of boards.

[alchemist]

Physically you could see a change towards the end of January, he just wasn't as quick. I don't think he's hurting but I do think he's just carrying that mileage with him, he can't hang for an entire 82 games playing near All-Star form. With that said I think he'll pull through in the playoffs.

[Stringer_Bell]

Not worried, the numbers are skewed because Pop tinkers with his minutes so much. If he can take him out of the game, he will to rest him. A fresh Duncan is a fresh Spurs team.

[Bigzax]

a Duncan in his prime couldn't carry this team to a championship.

so what's to worry about.

[lennyalderette]

i think from here on out if timmy doesnt need to play dont let him play at all unless hes obviously needed, i mean keep him active but bench him . tonight i think timmy should sit and really just play tomorrow

[quentin_compson]

He doesn't look hobbled to me. If anything, maybe fatigued, as Blackjack suggested.

But the thing is: If he really is breaking down again, what would that mean for next season? Limit his minutes even more? Really sit him out consequently on b2b games? If so, then the Spurs would need more help than they already do in the big man rotation.

[HarlemHeat37]

a Duncan in his prime couldn't carry this team to a championship.

so what's to worry about.

Duncan in his prime would have this team in the WCF at least, no doubt about it..

[Mel_13]

Last season, Tim Duncan broke down physically. From before the All-Star break to after the All-Star break, there was a dramatic dip in production. Unfortunately, this season -- numbers-wise, at least -- is a carbon copy.

Before the All-Star Break
Minutes: 35.3 in '08-09, 32.1 in '09-10
Points: 20.8 in '08-09, 19.4 in '09-10
Rebounds: 10.5 in '08-09, 10.7 in '09-10
FG%: 52.2% in '08-09, 52.7% in '09-10

After the All-Star Break
Minutes: 30.4 in '08-09, 30.8 in '09-10
Points: 16.4 in '08-09, 16.1 in '09-10
Rebounds: 11.0 in '08-09, 9.4 in '09-10
FG%: 46.2% in '08-09, 46.0% in '09-10

I haven't read anything about Duncan saying his knees are bothering him again, so hopefully the numbers are just a coincidence. He doesn't look anywhere near as hobbled as he did last season -- then again, Duncan is good at hiding pain.

I guess we'll see how it plays out but the end of the season could get extremely ugly if Duncan is indeed breaking down again.

Given Tim's age and NBA mileage, concern about his ability to maintain a high level of play through the entire regular season and the playoffs is justified. That being said, I'm not that alarmed by the statistical falloff after the All-Star break.

I had compiled some numbers to look at this subject in advance of the OKC game on Feb 24th. It was the first game after the RRT. One year earlier, on Feb 24, 2009, the Spurs played their first game after the RRT without Manu and without Tim, both of whom had gone down during the trip.

With all the instability and changes this season, Pop has remained consistent on one score, Tim Duncan's minutes. In 2008-09, Duncan had played 1866 minutes by the end of the RRT. He had exceeded 38 minutes in 15 games including 9 games in excess of 40 minutes, among these games of 50, 48, and 46 minutes.

In contrast, Duncan had logged only 1649 minutes by the end of the RRT this season, or 217 fewer minutes compared to the same point last season. He has exceeded 38 minutes only 6 times with just 2 games over 40 minutes. His longest outing of the season was 41:15 in the OT game v. Dallas.

When Tim came back in March last season, it was obvious that he was limited by the injury. His minutes and stats went down because he was not capable of doing any better.

This season he has fallen off from his early season pace, and some of that is probably from the wear and tear of a long season, but some of it can be chalked up to the small post-break sample.

For example, FG% shows a drop from 52.7% to 46.0%. That looks alarming, but he was 4-23 in the first game of the second half. He has shot 50% in the 12 subsequent games. Same with rebounds. Take away the 13 minute, 1 rebound effort against the Clips and his post break rebound average is back up to 10.

My concern would be more observational than statistical. Duncan had J.J. Hickson guarding him last week. Tim Duncan should dominate that matchup and he did not. We just don't know why he did not.

It will be very interesting to see whether Pop continues to strictly manage Tim's minutes over the brutal stretch run even if the losses start to mount. The playoffs are only a month away. Will the bubble wrap come off before the playoffs begin?

Minutes as of March 15th:
2008-09: 2113/34.6 mpg
2009-10: 1942/31.8 mpg

[Spurs Brazil]

I'm not worried. It looks like he's moving well. Last year it was tough, that game against Blazers at AT&T made me sad, he could barely walk but was there playing

[Mel_13]

I'm not worried. It looks like he's moving well. Last year it was tough, that game against Blazers at AT&T made me sad, he could barely walk but was there playing

:depressed

That's when I knew it was over. That sequence right before Pop pulled him in the 4th quarter was just painful to watch.

He's not MVP Timmy any longer, but he looks much, much better than he did that night.

[Old School 44]

I wouldn't worry, he seems to be moving well. I wonder sometimes if limiting player minutes during the regular season hurts them come playoff time, especially if they are not injured. You're conditioned to play 30 minutes during the regular season...are you conditioned come playoff time to play 35 to 40 minutes? In some cases, it probably works both ways.

[Muser]

McDyess/Blair/RJ/Manu have all had good rebounding games dotted through the season, so I think that could be a reason behind his Rebounding numbers falling from the start of the season.

[Muser]

a Duncan in his prime couldn't carry this team to a championship.

so what's to worry about.

He took the shell of Robinson, S-Jax, Malik Rose, Sophomore Parker, Rookie Manu, Bowen and some other scrubs to a title, Prime Timmy would easily take this team to the Finals.

[ducks]

duncan sucks
durant for duncan baby

[mogrovejo]

Duncan's decline comes mostly from 2 factors:

- he's hitting midrange jumpers at a much lower rate. More or less a 10% decline.
- he's drawing fouls at a much lower rate. From 2.6FGA per FTA to 3.9FGA per FTA. The main reason for this is that he's creating less shots for himself in the block. His efficiency or his assisted shots didn't decline.

The first factor isnt' worrying. The second one is.

His rebounding has been down big time in the last few games but I wouldn't read much into it yet because the Spurs have been rebounding the ball decently.

To me he's been looking less agile/energetic in the last 45 days or so, but it's still early to say if he can snap out of it or not.

[G-Dawgg]

Duncan is fine. he's doing ALOT better than when the season started. He's saving it for the playoffs as he does every year. He had a bit of an OFF nite tonite, but that happens to everybody also. He could play this game for years if he wanted because he was never the most athletic player even when he was young so he never has really relied on natural athletic ability.. Over the course of time as a player ages often their games decline as they age, but duncan has relied on court IQ and fundamental skills to compete more than athleticism, so as he ages his game doesn't deteriorate as much. -the injuries are the only thing that would concern me.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

timvp: are those averages for last season after all star break for his entire season after the break or just to this point in games played?


we should always be worried about duncan. He is our lynchpin. However, from what I have seen this post-all star break he looks much better than he did at this point least year. I also think due to our recent schedule of scrub teams that Pop has played Duncan less minutes out of choice, whereas last year was definitely more by necessity.

[raspsa]

TD is going to do just enough to get by.. saving himself for the POs.

[HarlemHeat37]

His shot selection has been HORRIBLE in the last month and a half or so..I don't know if it's because he's adjusted his game to slowing down with the wear and tear of the season, but he's taking a lot of bad shots..

[ElNono]

I was worried early in this game. Not because he wasn't making shots, but because he looked way too tentative out there. I'm glad Dice has been playing better and RJ has been helping rebound the ball. Any little help we can get to rest those knees is welcome right about now. Not worried so far. But this thing can flare up at any given time, so let's just hope Tim can have a full season without pain.

[boutons_deux]

I cringe when the ball goes to Tim. The offense stops, he holds the ball, doesn't know what to do, and then a godawfully flat ball heave with 1% chance of going in.

[DesignatedT]

I cringe when the ball goes to Tim. The offense stops, he holds the ball, doesn't know what to do, and then a godawfully flat ball heave with 1% chance of going in.

ur an idiot

[ducks]

duncan maybe bored the last 3 games these teams are not that great
he knows he can go throw the motions

[santymrc]

duncan maybe bored the last 3 games these teams are not that great
he knows he can go throw the motions

"He can go throw the motions" WTF does it means????

[ducks]

he can play but his mind us at home not in the gym

[itzsoweezee]

"He can go throw the motions" WTF does it means????

:downspin:

[santymrc]

he can play but his mind us at home not in the gym

I really can't understand you, but i think you wanted to say "He can go through the motions.

Yes he can, but he's not bored, he's relaxing a bit couse the team is playing better.
RJ is taking lots of RB that could go to Tim stats.

[galvatron3000]

less 5 minutes is probably about 6 points and 2-3 rebounds for Duncan in which could add to his percentage as well. Plus he is probably not trying to overdue it before the playoffs

[Sean Cagney]

duncan sucks
durant for duncan baby

LMFAO at this, he has had a better season at 34 than Tony has had at 37 and he has played alot more games! Your posts always suck.

[TD 21]

Tough to say. As others have begun to step up as the year has worn on (and as the Spurs have begun to mercifully go away from small ball), Duncan has had to carry less of the load, so naturally I assume he's pacing himself. I still trust he'll step up in the playoffs, as he always does, but there is definitely concern. That's natural though. He's 33 going on 34, has bad knees and was leaned on far too heavily in virtually every aspect of the game for the first half of the season.

Big game tomorrow. The consensus two best big men in the league going head to head. Back to back or not, Duncan has played 69 minutes combined in the last 3 games and before today was coming off two days rest. He should be rested enough and motivated enough (considering his recent showings and the opponent) to have a good game.

[TheSullyMonster]

less 5 minutes is probably about 6 points and 2-3 rebounds for Duncan in which could add to his percentage as well. Plus he is probably not trying to overdue it before the playoffs

Sweet as it would be, Duncan doesn't score 1.2 points per minute, or get a rebound every two minutes.:lol Especially these days.:depressed

[guzmangm]

I think his points will go up when/if Tony Parker gets back. That's the main thing.

[TDMVPDPOY]

timmy is just coasting atm

we all know his going to bring his game in the playoffs....

[Mixability]

Hopefully its just due to decreased minutes and saving himself for the second season. But saving too much for the playoffs will make that second season that much harder.

[mingus]

the Spurs absolutely need Duncan to be able to shift gears once the playoffs come. they always have. it was his ability to be able to do that on a consistent basis against good teams in years past that allowed the Spurs to do anything. he didn't lay nearly as many duds against good competetition as he does these days.

[Chomag]

After tonight now I officially am.

How in the world can we believe that Timmy can keep his body up like this in a grueling playoff schedule? Lucky though it looks like we wont have to worry about a long playoffs that much.

[z0sa]

It's only mid March.

[Supreme_Being]

Yes we should.

[z0sa]

How much has surrounding Tim with small ball for stretches contributed to this?

[FeZZy]

hopefully he's good he still has some juice left in him

[dbestpro]

The real problem of Pop going small and not playing Theo or Ian over the course of the year is the additional wear and tear it has had on Duncan trying to man the inside by himself.

[ezau]

Manu's reemergence and GHill's emergence might have something to do with his production post all-star break. I think Timmy realizes that he can no longer bare all the responsibility himself and is now just pacing himself for this next stretch of tough games.

Agree with this

[Fabbs]

zoSa
How much has surrounding Tim with small ball for stretches contributed to this?



The real problem of Pop going small and not playing Theo or Ian over the course of the year is the additional wear and tear it has had on Duncan trying to man the inside by himself.
And benching Blair for both nights of the back-to-back. The few minutes Blair did get, he came in relief of Tim!

Go Poop!

[Xevious]

Manu's reemergence and GHill's emergence might have something to do with his production post all-star break. I think Timmy realizes that he can no longer bare all the responsibility himself and is now just pacing himself for this next stretch of tough games.
Tim pacing himself does not explain his game tonight at all.

[Agloco]

After last nights 1 for 10 effort, I'd say yes. I don't care if it was a back to back......

[objective]

The real problem of Pop going small and not playing Theo or Ian over the course of the year is the additional wear and tear it has had on Duncan trying to man the inside by himself.

100%

And it's not hindsight, people have been posting about the effects of smallball wearing down Duncan for a long, long time.

[team-work]

Tim's health is always a cause for concern. Seeing him getting 17 pts on 8/8 shooting, 6 rbs, 5 assists, 1 blk in 13 mins is quite reassuring though. Granted these stats came against a team without interior presence (90pts allowed in the paint!), we know can still perform well if he's focused. Pop should figure out how not to overwork him (it's no easy task given our frontcourt depth and tough schedule).

[ThaiFanofSpurs]

TD is the last Spurs I will worry. I still think he will do well in the POs just like what he usually does. Even though I don't put a lot of hope this season, I am still waiting to be surprised by the Spurs. Somehow, I think both TD and McDyess are now pacing themselves for the POs.

[BillMc]

He's fine, just the return of Manu and emergence of Hill have made it less necessary to score all the time. If, anything, I'm more worried about TD on the defensive side of the game.

That said, TD, is not one of our problems. He's one of our solutions.