Who is more likely to top Kareem points record: Kobe, Lebron, or Durant

[D2Procon]

Im going with Durant especially after his 25ppg barrage

[Muser]

None of them. If I had to pick one then Durant.

[Mel_13]

Kobe. He would get there averaging about 25ppg for another 6 years.

Lebron would take more than 10 years at 28ppg.

Durant will need over 13 years at 30ppg.

Most career points requires a very long career almost free from injury. I can see Kobe putting up more than 20ppg until he's 40 if he has the desire to play that long.

[Pero]

Kobe. He would get there averaging about 25ppg for another 6 years.

Lebron would take more than 10 years at 28ppg.

Durant will need over 13 years at 30ppg.

Most career points requires a very long career almost free from injury. I can see Kobe putting up more than 20ppg until he's 40 if he has the desire to play that long.

Lebron is 7 years younger than Kobe. And Durant 10. By your math Kobe would be 38 by the time he could reach it, while Lebron and Durant would be 35...

[JamStone]

None. If any of them, LeBron. I can't see Kobe playing long enough. I can't see Durant staying healthy enough throughout his career. That leaves LeBron.

[DAF86]

None. If any of them, LeBron. I can't see Kobe playing long enough. I can't see Durant staying healthy enough throughout his career. That leaves LeBron.

I could definitely see Kobe playing untill his late 30's like a certain someone, not at his current level of course.

[Allanon]

Kareem's number will probably be very, very hard to beat if not impossible.

Kobe is the most skilled of the 3 and could probably play a skill game going into 40.

Durant seems to be highly skilled as well but he's too damn skinny and may take some rough hits.

[LakeShow]

None of the above

[Mel_13]

Lebron is 7 years younger than Kobe. And Durant 10. By your math Kobe would be 38 by the time he could reach it, while Lebron and Durant would be 35...

And?

It's far easier for me to imagine Kobe scoring 25ppg for 6 years than Durant scoring 30ppg for 13 years. A very long, almost injury-free career is essential to reach the goal. Kobe has already proven to be extremely durable for a very long time. Durant is in his 3rd year and his long-term durability is completely unknown. LeBron will likely have to make changes to a less physical style to extend his career to 15+ years.

All three are longshots, but Kobe is the closest, plays a style that can continue for many years and, most importantly IMO, is the player most likely to have the desire to continue playing as he approaches 40.

[tlongII]

LeBron without question. Kobe doesn't have enough time left and Durant will get injured eventually.

[JamStone]

For Kobe, it would have to happen in either his 20th or 21st season in the NBA. 20 seasons for an NBA guard???

If he could continue at a pace of 25+ PPG and play around 80 games each season for the next 6+ seasons, he has a chance. He'd be around 38 years old. Possible? Sure it's possible. Likely? I don't think so. More likely than LeBron averaging around 30 PPG until he's 35? Not really.

Even when Michael Jordan was 38 and still playing in the league, with a lot less wear and tear on his body since he came in the league later and took a several seasons off, he was down to averaging 20-22 PPG. Kobe would have to maintain 25+ PPG all 6+ seasons. If he has a couple of more seasons at 27-28 PPG, that will help, but it will still take close to 6 seasons, Kobe being in his 20th season in the league, and staying healthy.

I don't think it's likely for Kobe.

[Pero]

And?


So assuming Kobe and the others retire at 38, it means they have 3 more years to recover for lover scoring average if they aren't able to have yours.



It's far easier for me to imagine Kobe scoring 25ppg for 6 years than Durant scoring 30ppg for 13 years.

Durant would have to average closer to 24ppg for 16 years. And Lebron 21.5ppg for 13 more years. I think that Lebron would be more likely than Kobe, if not for what you say next.


All three are longshots, but Kobe is the closest, plays a style that can continue for many years and, most importantly IMO, is the player most likely to have the desire to continue playing as he approaches 40.


Yeah his desire to be like Mike will drive him to play longer. :lol
Businessman Lebron probably retires from basketball by 32.

[Mel_13]

Yeah his desire to be like Mike will drive him to play longer. :lol
Businessman Lebron probably retires from basketball by 32.

Exactly.

Breaking Kareem's record requires a conscious decision to pursue that record. Kobe seems far more likely, IMO, to make that a career priority than either LeBron or Durant.

[DUNCANownsKOBE2]

Kobe has already played close to 1200 career games, he's gonna be a good player for several more years, but not 6.

[Bambililos]

Kobe is extremely durable, it's impressive. Yet I don't think he'll top Kareem, it's a huge record.

As for Lebron, I'm pretty sure he'll break down before he's 32. He's too hard on his body, I can see a career-ending injury (it's not a wish, just a feeling).

Durant is too young to tell.

[Cane]

Lebron has the best chance followed by Durant; Kobe's already been wearing down and if they make it deep in the postseason its likely going to be even worse for him in the future especially if he plays for the USA on the international level.

Do these points records only take into account the regular season?

[XFactor]

Kevin Durant: Highly unlikely, there are many players who came in the league averaging 25+ ppg in the first couple of seasons and then either went on a decline mode or had a career impacting injury, example being Vince Carter, Tracy McGrady, etc.

Lebron James: Lebron relies mostly on his ability to bulldoze his way to the rim and constantly puts his body on the line. He will most likely lose that ability as he gets to his early to mid 30s. He will rely on jumpshots

Kobe Bryant: Is the most player likely to reach the mark but with that being said I doubt any of the three will reach it.

[j.dizzle]

Kobe probably does treatment on his body while he sleeps hahaha dude doesnt like to do shit except practice, play ball, & take his kids to disneyland..He'll be in the NBA for 6-8 more years if he doesnt have any serious injuries. I doubt they'll reach Kareem but getting atleast 2 more rings is good enough for me hahaha

[Killakobe81]

I would argue Lebron but you guys are silly to assume that cuz Durant us skinny and Lebron is buff that will determine who will be more injury prone ....

Miller was superskinny but hardly injured ...while Pippen (who this side of Karl Malone or David Robinson) is the closest skill player with a physique similar to Lebron ...broke down here and there quite a bit especially at the end.

The reason I choose Lebron is he has had a better "headstart" than anyone else (Kobe did not start Day one and was asecondary option) Lebron has pretty much dominanted since day 1 hisrookie year.

Durant has been aMAZING this year and I think he can get better but I think Lebron hasnt peaked quite yet either ...

If Lebron gets a post game it's all over ...if he stays healthy but Kareem was a freak of nature ...doubt they can catch him ...

[JamStone]

Karl Malone is a better analogy than Scottie Pippen for LeBron. For most of their careers, Karl Malone was about 6'8 and about 250 while Scottie was about 6'8 and about 215. Karl Malone took enough of a pounding inside to compare to LeBron. And Karl Malone played 18 full seasons missing very few games.

It's not a guarantee, but just because you can find one or two comparisons that will fit what you're trying to argue, it doesn't mean that it really applies. Based on physique, I think it's a very good assumption that it's more likely Durant will be more injury prone than LeBron. It's not absolute, not a guarantee, but it's not a bad assumption.

LeBron has already played 6 seasons and has taken quite a beating with the way he attacks the rim and he still has averaged close to 79 games each of those first 6 seasons. The most games he's missed in a regular season has been 7 games. He's proven to be pretty durable so far.

[Killakobe81]

Karl Malone is a better analogy than Scottie Pippen for LeBron. For most of their careers, Karl Malone was about 6'8 and about 250 while Scottie was about 6'8 and about 215. Karl Malone took enough of a pounding inside to compare to LeBron. And Karl Malone played 18 full seasons missing very few games.

It's not a guarantee, but just because you can find one or two comparisons that will fit what you're trying to argue, it doesn't mean that it really applies. Based on physique, I think it's a very good assumption that it's more likely Durant will be more injury prone than LeBron. It's not absolute, not a guarantee, but it's not a bad assumption.

LeBron has already played 6 seasons and has taken quite a beating with the way he attacks the rim and he still has averaged close to 79 games each of those first 6 seasons. The most games he's missed in a regular season has been 7 games. He's proven to be pretty durable so far.

I did refer to Malone and Robinson ...Jamstone. and i can find A LOT more than one or two comparisons ...

Because their games are dissimilar (Malone's and Lebron's) I chose Pippen and I bet even though you have Pippen listed at 215 I'm prettysure by his Houston/Portland days he weighed quite a bit more than that...still shy of
Lebron's estimated but closer than you make it out to be

Pip is relevant to what we are talking about because as Lebron ages that is the game I see most similar to his ...Again Im speaking ofLebron in his 30's not now...my guess (I admit it's a guess) Lebron wil try and slim down as he gets older and starts to drive less ...to keep the pounding on his knees down. Though Pip at his best was never Lebron's equal they have a similar all around game ...

I agree Lebron is VERY durable ...I am just saying that to use body type as the main criteria is foolish. Oden has a much better physique, and we see how injury prone he has been compared to Durant. they both got drafted after one year of college.

Kareem who these guys are chasing though quite strong was lithe and wiry compared to Lebron Malone Shaq etc. yet he played until his 40's ...And isnt valid to point out that the greatest scorer with durabilty was not built like Lebron?

Again, my point being that physique does not mean as much as taking care of your body no matter what type of mass you have.

Some of it is luck (to avoid injuries) and some of it genetics ... such as good ligaments etc.

Jamstone not picking a fight here. Respect your posts a lot. But since you chose t o respon to my post I thought I would do the same ...

[JamStone]

I don't take having a discussion or debate as picking a fight. I don't take people disagreeing with my opinion as a bad thing. And my opinion isn't always right, but it is just that, my opinion.

Well to me, different positions or different skillset doesn't make as big a difference when you're talking about durability than difference in size. Seems like that's what you were going for with the Pippen comparison. In Pippen's playing days he was about 50 pounds lighter than LeBron is. That's a huge difference.

Regardless, I still think looking at physique gives a legitimate argument why one player could be more durable than another. No guarantee, no absolute. But, it's a credible factor to consider.

[Killakobe81]

Im just saying Lebron is listed at 250 but people guess he is at LEAST 260 Pippen was listed at 215 as young player when he WAS very skinny take a look at the drat pics ...

MJ got him hooked up with his trainer and Pip put on some serios muscle my guess is at least 15 to 20 but who knows? then as he got older and put on even more bulk Im guess ing he was at least 230 so we sare only talking about maybe 30 to 35 pounds. Which is a lot right now but Im guess ing Lebron will settle at about 255 to 260 when he gets older

If I had found a better comparison I would have ... but Malone was high post low post scorer and Pippen a Point forward similar to Lebron ...with similar albeit smaller frame.

Again we are speculating. But Kareem was probably the guy who played in to his 40's but was still quite effective as a scorer. His body type was lean muscle versus mass ...and IMHO i think it's why he did not struggle with knee injuries like many other great scoreres with long careers ... which is why I think Durant COULD enjoy similar success plus he is tall and long for his position so even when he loses his "lift" he has good form and a wingspan that will still allow him to get his shot off ...

[Killakobe81]

But either way I doubt any will do it ...
I just think bodytype will not be the reason why he doesnt because Durant has great length and height and is more of a shooter than a driver

[La Peace]

Kevin Durant: Highly unlikely, there are many players who came in the league averaging 25+ ppg in the first couple of seasons and then either went on a decline mode or had a career impacting injury, example being Vince Carter, Tracy McGrady, etc.

Lebron James: Lebron relies mostly on his ability to bulldoze his way to the rim and constantly puts his body on the line. He will most likely lose that ability as he gets to his early to mid 30s. He will rely on jumpshots

Kobe Bryant: Is the most player likely to reach the mark but with that being said I doubt any of the three will reach it.

[timvp]

Kobe is bulletproof. Playa needs to drama queen from time to time to pretend he's not indestructible. He'll easily top Kareem.

[ShoogarBear]

Durant will get injured eventually.

Based on regression to the mean probabilities in the 2008 draft, he never will.

[JamStone]

Based on what? He's got no track record with big injuries, last year was the only year he missed any substantial time, and that was with 74 games played which is still a healthy season.

As far as him being "too skinny", I don't buy it. Reggie Miller was "too skinny" and remained incredibly durable throughout his career.

Based on my opinion.

You can refer to Reggie Miller, but I don't think it's a good comparison. Throughout his career, 37% of his field goal attempts were three pointers. By comparison, only about 17% of Durant's field goal attempts have been three pointers. Durant actually takes it to the basket, gets out in the open court, takes hits way more than Reggie would. Reggie averaged 5 free throw attempts per game in his career, only twice averaging more than 7 free throw attempts per game in a season. Durant already averages 7 for his short career and averages 10 FTA this season. I think there's a stark difference.

Now if you can find a skinny 6'10 small forward who was a 25-30 PPG scorer for his entire career as the main option on a team who lasted well into his mid 30s, I'm all for making the comparison.

And if you really believe that Durant will be that type of player, be a 30 point scorer over the next 13-14 years and still be healthy enough to play about 80 games each of those 13-14 seasons, well then more power to him and to you. I don't see it happening. It's just an opinion, but I just don't.

[Killakobe81]

You can refer to Reggie Miller, but I don't think it's a good comparison. Throughout his career, 37% of his field goal attempts were three pointers. By comparison, only about 17% of Durant's field goal attempts have been three pointers. Durant actually takes it to the basket, gets out in the open court, takes hits way more than Reggie would. Reggie averaged 5 free throw attempts per game in his career, only twice averaging more than 7 free throw attempts per game in a season. Durant already averages 7 for his short career and averages 10 FTA this season. I think there's a stark difference.

That is a good point but I doubt he will drive as much as he does now as he ages almost all perimeter (wing) players move their games out as they get older ...Lebron will as well ...

[D2Procon]

Miller was superskinny but hardly injured ...while Pippen (who this side of Karl Malone or David Robinson) is the closest skill player with a physique similar to Lebron ...broke down here and there quite a bit especially at the end.


Yep he sure had the physique of Lebron :rollin:rollin:rollin

h0f1EsUVCIU

[JamStone]

Okay well that's all I needed to know. You've got no basis to believe it, it's just your opinion.

I'm not saying it can't happen, I just don't get how everybody automatically assumes Durant will fall apart physically when he's shown no injury history whatsoever.

Well I was more arguing against the notion that Durant can play 17-18 full seasons scoring at that clip. While I do think his slight frame could lead to some injuries over the course of his career, I'm really more skeptical that he'll play long enough period. While some like to bring up Reggie Miller, he's really the only example you can bring up. How many slender perimeter players not only played 17-18 NBA seasons, and not only remained relatively healthy for those 17-18 NBA seasons, but also did both while also being the main option on a team averaging 25-30 PPG?

Perhaps Durant won't get any major injuries and be relatively healthy for his entire NBA career. Sure, I guess it's possible. When I first responded in this thread, I guess I should have clarified not only questioning his ability to stay healthy but his ability to score at this level for another 14 or so seasons. That admittedly is not necessarily the same argument.

[XFactor]

Well I was more arguing against the notion that Durant can play 17-18 full seasons scoring at that clip. While I do think his slight frame could lead to some injuries over the course of his career, I'm really more skeptical that he'll play long enough period. While some like to bring up Reggie Miller, he's really the only example you can bring up. How many slender perimeter players not only played 17-18 NBA seasons, and not only remained relatively healthy for those 17-18 NBA seasons, but also did both while also being the main option on a team averaging 25-30 PPG?

Perhaps Durant won't get any major injuries and be relatively healthy for his entire NBA career. Sure, I guess it's possible. When I first responded in this thread, I guess I should have clarified not only questioning his ability to stay healthy but his ability to score at this level for another 14 or so seasons. That admittedly is not necessarily the same argument.

IMO Durant's physiqe is irrelevant because he doesn't drive to the rim constantly like Lebron drawing contact in the process. Physiqe is an important factor only when you play like Lebron who puts his body on the line everytime he drives to the rim. Having played 2 seasons with barely any injury reinforces that physique is not significant.

[ChrisRichards]

Kome will break the 30k plateau but thats it. I think Bron has the best chance of them all. He's at 15k points already and I can see him easily scoring an additional 25k points for the next 11 yrs.

[jonnybravo]

You can refer to Reggie Miller, but I don't think it's a good comparison. Throughout his career, 37% of his field goal attempts were three pointers. By comparison, only about 17% of Durant's field goal attempts have been three pointers. Durant actually takes it to the basket, gets out in the open court, takes hits way more than Reggie would. Reggie averaged 5 free throw attempts per game in his career, only twice averaging more than 7 free throw attempts per game in a season. Durant already averages 7 for his short career and averages 10 FTA this season. I think there's a stark difference.

That is a good point but I doubt he will drive as much as he does now as he ages almost all perimeter (wing) players move their games out as they get older ...Lebron will as well ...

The difference though is Durant and Kobe have shown they can thrive in games where they get 2-4 ft's a game. Lebron has never shown that. And he shouldn't given what he is able to do now.

[pauls931]

None of the above

This, most of those guys depend on athleticism to achieve volume shots and eventually teams are not going to want them taking 25+ shots a game. Centers with skills last long because...

1. They're tall, don't have to jump as much.
2. They have moves that don't take athleticism, hook/bank shots.
3. They don't need to sprint on breaks, less wear.

Duncan has bank/hook shots. (Duncan is a Center!!!)
Kareem had the ultimate hook.

However one X factor is these 3 guys may get more special treatment from refs than say Kareem which may pad their scoring.

[jimo2305]

i don't think that record will be broken in my lifetime to be honest.. and i'm 25 years old.. lebron however.. would come the closest to it i believe..