Shot For the Win

[PeterBurns]

Got into a debate on the show this morning with Andy and Bowen.
If Spurs had 1 shot to win, who would you want taking the last shot?

Wanted to see what you peeps thought.

1) Tony Parker
2) Tim Duncan
3) Manu Ginobili

[Spurminator]

I don't know about the shot but I want the ball in Manu's hands when we run the play.

[lefty]

Mason :D

[silverblk mystix]

...why, the one that makes it, of course:eyebrows

[anonoftheinternets]

Is this a public poll? how come i cant see who voted?

[djohn14]

Robert Mutha fukin Horry

[Dex]

Gotta go with Manu. He has the killer instinct, and has a wider variety of moves. He can pull up or step back for the three. He can drive to the basket for a dunk or a layup. He can draw the foul. He can lob the floater. He can even make the crazy pass if he has to.

If you go into Duncan, teams can collapse in the paint and force a very difficult shot, or force him to pass out. He just doesn't have the same real estate or reportoire.

Duncan is our foundation. He's had his clutch moments over the years, but it seems like Manu is more prepared and comfortable taking that last shot. He wants the ball in his hands with the game on the line.

[Leetonidas]

The last shot? Not sure. Last year I would say Mason, most people would say Duncan, Manu...not sure about Parker. As for who has the ball in their hands though, I pick Manu no contest because he can easily set up a game winning basket with his playmaking abilities.

[amy020]

no doubt Manu
He can shoot three, drive for a layup, and also a great clutch time free throw shooter

[ffadicted]

This poll shows spurstalk is still sane

[urunobili]

Manu creates the shot TP drains it :wakeup

[Brazil]

I don't know about the shot but I want the ball in Manu's hands when we run the play.

Good post.

With TP / Manu and Tim we have 3 very good options (few teams have 3 players capable to do that on a good ratio). I really don't mind if one of the 3 take the last shot, the 3 are clutches and have some solid experience to make it. In parallel I feel a lot more confortable if Manu has the ball in his hand to run the play: he will find the open guy, the laser pass inside or he will take advantage of a Tim highscreen to go for a layup or to draw the foul. TP can also do that: less risk but eventually less reward.

[Walton Buys Off Me]

Not even close

Keith Bogans

Kidding- Ginobili of course- no-brainer.

[Allanon]

Ginobili!!!!!

[sonic21]

give the ball to best playmaker (manu) or the best ball handler (tony) and see what's happening.

[MaNu4Tres]

You want the ball in Manu's hands.

Spurs typically go to Manu in crucial situations from the Sonics game 6 in 05', Mavs game 7 in 06' ( End of regulation)/ Suns game 1 in 08'...I'm sure there's more, but those are the ones from the top of my head.

[stéphane]

Not sure I'd like Manu to take the shot no matter the circumstances but I'd sure would like him to initiate the crucial play.

[angel_luv]

First instinct: Manu Ginobili

Although I feel all three are capable of being put in that situation and making the shot.

[pookenstein]

Ballhandling on a final possesion: without a doubt Manu.
Final shot depends on the matchup. Tony vs Fisher (instead of Manu vs Kobe or Tim vs Gasol/Bynum), Tim vs Jamison (or any other Cavs-F - instead of Manu vs LeBron), Manu against Pierce (instead of Tony vs Rondo or Tim vs KG). Just examples.

[Mixability]

I knew the results when I say the thread title. No doubt Manu is our clutch guy. He'll make you scream at his rare mistakes. But you live and die with the Manu!

[MaNuMaNiAc]

Depends on the matchup to be honest. Though I would pick Manu starting the last play for sure.

[wildbill2u]

There is only one vote that counts. Coach Pop. And he votes for Manu having the ball in his hands virtually every time.

[mexicanjunior]

Manu...

[Blake]

I want Manu with the ball.

If he's open, I want him as option #1 to shoot it.

If not, I'm fine with any other Spur taking an open shot......even Bonner.


if we are talking about all things being equal open shot clutch shot..... it's Manu all the way.

[VBM]

Tony dribbles around and shoots 18-20 footers to end games...Manu ftw!

[urunobili]

TP has created some gr8 shots too even with Manu on the floor... Mason's Christmas gift to PHX comes to mind...

[rascal]

Duncan
He is shooting at .512 and has hit enough game winners in his life.

[kace]

http://www.82games.com/gamewinningshots.htm

FG % in game winning shot for 5 seasons (from 2003/04 till 2008/09):

Tim: 39 %
tony: 37.5 %
manu: 28.5 %

manu with his ability to create things and his FT % is a safe bet with the ball in his hands for the last play.

but strictly for the last shot, i'd go with tim or tony.

and in the same situations (less than 24 s with 2 points difference at best), whereas tony hasn't shot FT, manu is only 4/7. ans while tony has made 4 assists for 0 TO, manu has made three assists for 4 TO. even tim is 6/7 on FT and has made 3 assists for 1 TO.

so Tim and Tony first. if one of the big three is on fire though, especially manu, give him the ball.

[GhosTown]

The correct answer is who ever has the best matchup.

Obviously it depends on who we are playing.

Manu will not be taking the last shot against Cavs (Lebron will stop him)
Tim will not be the one against Magic (D Howard will stop him)
TP not against Jazz (D Williams can stop TP)

So truthfully it depends on who we are playing.

[DAF86]

Roger Mason.

[DAF86]

I'm pretty sure that TP and TD have a higher % than Manu on game winning shots.

[DAF86]

FG % in game winning shot for 5 seasons (from 2003/04 till 2008/09):

Tim: 39 %
tony: 37.5 %
manu: 28.5 %


lol, Sorry Kace I didn't see your post before.

[easy7]

Glad to see you back Peter, try to keep up with the paperwork this time. Manu is the Man.

[Bullet Tooth Tony]

no doubt Manu
He can shoot three, drive for a layup, and also a great clutch time free throw shooter

this

[DAF86]

and in the same situations (less than 24 s with 2 points difference at best), shot FT, manu is only 4/7.

WTF? That's really surprising. In which games where those misses? (I remember one from last night :lol). I find extrange that Manu has only shot 7 FTs under those circunstances over the last 5 years.

[MB20]

I agree with those who said that Manu needs to start the last play.
I trust his court vision and decisions at the end of games. Scoring or passing to the open man.

[PeterBurns]

Tweeted the results a few minutes ago.
Manu just retweeted this....

My wife didn't vote and the twins either. I swear RT @PeterBurnsRadio:82% of #Spurs fans want @manuginobili taking the last shot

[Man In Black]

I voted Manu. However, it's a situational question.
If it's no time-out and there is only 4 seconds left to dribble it up full-court, then I choose Parker. He finds a way to get that tear-drop off.

If there is 5 or more seconds, then it's Ginobili because of his 85% FT percentage and his way of finding space for a shot.

If it's a side out of bounds play, then I choose Duncan. He finds a way to get off a fadeaway that goes in more often than not. Even if it's a 3 pointer...he finds a way.

With Manu in those last game situations, he finds a way to be the best triple-threat player out there. He can shoot, pass, or drive as good as any other premium wing in the game. Like KB24 said about Manu in his Spike Lee joint, "That boy is 1 bad-ass 2 guard."

[kace]

WTF? That's really surprising. In which games where those misses? (I remember one from last night :lol). I find extrange that Manu has only shot 7 FTs under those circunstances over the last 5 years.

well, to be exact, your team has to be tied or down by two at best. being up doesn't count in those stats.

indeed we're talking about a relative small sample here, even if it's for 5 years.


To take fire in the last quarter, Manu is a beast, even if TP has clearly shown this ability these last years. plus, manu's FT % is a huge advantage for him to have the ball in his hands (even if he missed a lot when it was the very last play he's usually safe in the last 5 minutes at the line).

so, i would prefer manu taking fire to get us back in a game, but tony for the last shot. He made several of those lately.

Tim stats are good, but i'm not sure that they would be so good very lately. On the defensive end though, tim often made the clutch play.

so manu to take fire, tim to make the clutch defensive play and tony for the last shot. i'd go with that.

[MarCowMar]

All of our big three have hit crucial shots and I don't think any of them would wilt or freeze if they had to take it.

And why isn't Mason an option? Despite being mediocre overall he's hit plenty of game winners for us.

Bottom line is Pop will draw up a great play and get someone a quality open shot.

[TDomination]

Manu definitely.

But if a play was run for Tim or Tony, i would feel confident with them as well.

[santymrc]

http://www.82games.com/gamewinningshots.htm

FG % in game winning shot for 5 seasons (from 2003/04 till 2008/09):

Tim: 39 %
tony: 37.5 %
manu: 28.5 %

manu with his ability to create things and his FT % is a safe bet with the ball in his hands for the last play.

but strictly for the last shot, i'd go with tim or tony.

and in the same situations (less than 24 s with 2 points difference at best), whereas tony hasn't shot FT, manu is only 4/7. ans while tony has made 4 assists for 0 TO, manu has made three assists for 4 TO. even tim is 6/7 on FT and has made 3 assists for 1 TO.

so Tim and Tony first. if one of the big three is on fire though, especially manu, give him the ball.



well, to be exact, your team has to be tied or down by two at best. being up doesn't count in those stats.

indeed we're talking about a relative small sample here, even if it's for 5 years.


To take fire in the last quarter, Manu is a beast, even if TP has clearly shown this ability these last years. plus, manu's FT % is a huge advantage for him to have the ball in his hands (even if he missed a lot when it was the very last play he's usually safe in the last 5 minutes at the line).

so, i would prefer manu taking fire to get us back in a game, but tony for the last shot. He made several of those lately.

Tim stats are good, but i'm not sure that they would be so good very lately. On the defensive end though, tim often made the clutch play.

so manu to take fire, tim to make the clutch defensive play and tony for the last shot. i'd go with that.

Man... You got to take a deep breath and search again... According to that page, Manu's a 92% FT shooter in thouse situations...

SAS Ginobili 35 127 49 +18 20.3 .574 9.4 .440 16.9 93% 43.3 38% 7.2 10.5 2.6 0.4 3.0

4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points
Last update: 4/17/2008

SAS Ginobili 23 118 38 +15 19.5 .396 8.9 .273 17.0 90% 33.2 63% 7.3 2.8 4.5 0.8 2.8
Last update: 4/16/2009

[igruex]

"Ah bueno"

[fotan2]

easily manu

[kace]

Man... You got to take a deep breath and search again... According to that page, Manu's a 92% FT shooter in thouse situations...

SAS Ginobili 35 127 49 +18 20.3 .574 9.4 .440 16.9 93% 43.3 38% 7.2 10.5 2.6 0.4 3.0

4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points
Last update: 4/17/2008

SAS Ginobili 23 118 38 +15 19.5 .396 8.9 .273 17.0 90% 33.2 63% 7.3 2.8 4.5 0.8 2.8
Last update: 4/16/2009


clutch stats (4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points) isn't the same thing than game winning situation stats (24 seconds or less, team tied or down 2 at best).

Man... You got to take a deep breath and read again

[murpjf88]

Is this a trick question? None of them can make a jump shot when the game is on the line. Manu should have the ball in his hands because he can make a pair of freethrows. Duncan is no longer the goto guy, throwing up that weak ass shit instead of taking it strong to the basket. TP has never been good in the clutch and his jumpshot has cooled off significantly this year. Duncan and Tp are more apt to turning the ball over while Manu is better at creating and drawing the foul. However, If their down a triple, the Spurs are down a triple, I would probably like to see G. Hill take the shot.

The best situation for the Spurs is not to find themselves in these kind of predicaments.

[vander]

http://www.82games.com/gamewinningshots.htm

FG % in game winning shot for 5 seasons (from 2003/04 till 2008/09):

Tim: 39 %
tony: 37.5 %
manu: 28.5 %

manu with his ability to create things and his FT % is a safe bet with the ball in his hands for the last play.

but strictly for the last shot, i'd go with tim or tony.

and in the same situations (less than 24 s with 2 points difference at best), whereas tony hasn't shot FT, manu is only 4/7. ans while tony has made 4 assists for 0 TO, manu has made three assists for 4 TO. even tim is 6/7 on FT and has made 3 assists for 1 TO.

so Tim and Tony first. if one of the big three is on fire though, especially manu, give him the ball.

wow! and I was about to vote manu, :lol good thing I read that first.

depends on the shot
if we need a 2 = TP
if we need a 3 = I don't know, all of our guys are erratic, Manu or Hill I guess

[Spurs7794]

wow! and I was about to vote manu, :lol good thing I read that first.

depends on the shot
if we need a 2 = TP
if we need a 3 = I don't know, all of our guys are erratic, Manu or Hill I guess


When we need a 3, for years, Pop usually runs a play for Horry, Bowen, Barry, Finley, Mason, Hill...aka anyone not part of the big 3. If we need a 2, he gives it to one of the big 3.

[Sisk]

manu

[Solid D]

Timmy has had several game-winners. TP definitely has also. Remember the game versus Philly last year when Manu took the shot from the corner, missed, and TP snatched the rebound on the baseline and hoisted a rainbow at the buzzer FTW? Also, TP's clutch baskets in the OT Minnesota game last year.

Manu has had some but he and Timmy have also missed their fair share of GW shots. The OT loss in ATL comes to mind.

I may have to go with Timmy FTW on this one.

[ElNono]

I feel confident with any of the big 3 taking it...

[murpjf88]

http://www.82games.com/gamewinningshots.htm

FG % in game winning shot for 5 seasons (from 2003/04 till 2008/09):

Tim: 39 %
tony: 37.5 %
manu: 28.5 %

manu with his ability to create things and his FT % is a safe bet with the ball in his hands for the last play.

but strictly for the last shot, i'd go with tim or tony.

and in the same situations (less than 24 s with 2 points difference at best), whereas tony hasn't shot FT, manu is only 4/7. ans while tony has made 4 assists for 0 TO, manu has made three assists for 4 TO. even tim is 6/7 on FT and has made 3 assists for 1 TO.

so Tim and Tony first. if one of the big three is on fire though, especially manu, give him the ball.

This would have been great if the question was over the last five years, who would you have liked to take the last shot. But in 2010, Parker has not made good decisions with the basketball. When the Spurs are trailing by two in the final possession, TP almost always settles for a contested jump shot instead of using his quickness to get to the basket. PF has also limited his quickness and has prevented him from getting enough lift on his jump shot.

Manu, on the otherhand, usually looks to drive first before he tries his pantented step back jump shot. Whern Manu drive, the defense collapses and if the shot isn't their, he can find an open shooter.

TD should only be used as a decoy in these situation unless their is a huge mismatch that Timmy can take advantage of.

Manu should still be the first choice.

[TIMMYD!]

It's weird how last year Mason would have been a real option.

But I want Manu with the ball in his hands and then the rest is all situational.

[whottt]

If it's a spot up shot I'll take a Duncan, Jefferson or Parker, and based on this season I'd go with Jefferson first. If it's a shot in the course of play I'll take Manu or Duncan.

[eric365]

Peter D. Newmann of NBA Statistics and Information Research has tallied some numbers that take into account this season. Here are some of his findings:

* This season, Bryant has made seven of the 12 shots, with a chance to win or tie the game, in the last ten seconds of regulation or overtime.
* Bryant's the only player in the last decade who has made seven such shots in a season.
* Bryant has made 26 of the 89 potential game tying or game-winning field goals he has shot over the last decade. That's 29.2%, which is slightly above League average.
* His game-winners, against the Heat, Bucks, Kings, Celtics, Grizzlies, Heat and Raptors come in a season when no other player has hit more than three such shots. Derrick Rose has the second-most attempts, with eight.
* The best field goal percentage, on potential game-tying or game-winning field goals in the last 10 seconds of the fourth quarter or overtime, belongs to Chris Paul. He has hit three of his four shots. Chris Bosh, Chris Duhon, Tim Duncan, Raymond Felton, Rudy Gay, David Lee, Rashard Lewis and O.J. Mayo are all two of three. This season, the League as a whole makes just 26.7% of its shots in that situation.
* Over the last decade, by field goal percentage the best shooters in this setting have been Carmelo Anthony (13-28, .464), Pau Gasol (9-22, .409), Tony Parker (11-29, .379), Chris Paul (9-24, .375) and Shawn Marion (10-28, .357). Bryant over the same period is 26-89 (.292).
* Bryant has attempted by far the most such shots of anyone over the last decade. His 89 is trailed by Vince Carter's 69, Paul Pierce's 57, Dwyane Wade's 51 and LeBron James' 50.
* Bryant's 26 makes also lead the League, followed by Carter with 20, Ray Allen with 17 and Allen Iverson's 14. Carmelo Anthony, Tim Duncan, Dirk Nowitzki and Paul Pierce have each made 13.


http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/14218/new-numbers-on-kobe-bryant-in-crunch-time

TP seems a good option :)

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

I don't know about the shot but I want the ball in Manu's hands when we run the play.

Answered perfectly by the first reply.

That happens VERY rarely. :lol

:toast

[TJastal]

Roger Mason.

[kace]

* The best field goal percentage, on potential game-tying or game-winning field goals in the last 10 seconds of the fourth quarter or overtime......
* Over the last decade, by field goal percentage the best shooters in this setting have been Carmelo Anthony (13-28, .464), Pau Gasol (9-22, .409), Tony Parker (11-29, .379), Chris Paul (9-24, .375) and Shawn Marion (10-28, .357). Bryant over the same period is 26-89 (.292).

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/14218/new-numbers-on-kobe-bryant-in-crunch-time

TP seems a good option :)

great find. all the stats in crunch time point TP as a very safe bet.

third of the whole league for the last decade in that espn stat is rather impressive.

[pookenstein]

When we need a 3, for years, Pop usually runs a play for Horry, Bowen, Barry, Finley, Mason, Hill...aka anyone not part of the big 3. If we need a 2, he gives it to one of the big 3.


Just take a look at my sig...

[Express-News]

great find. all the stats in crunch time point TP as a very safe bet.

third of the whole league for the last decade in that espn stat is rather impressive.

LOL after all your rant and facts............ manu 106.............tony 5 ..... don't you think you're just wasting your time lol

[bus driver]

i will live and die by one of the big 3 taking the last shot

[SA210]

Gotta go with Manu. He has the killer instinct, and has a wider variety of moves. He can pull up or step back for the three. He can drive to the basket for a dunk or a layup. He can draw the foul. He can lob the floater. He can even make the crazy pass if he has to.

If you go into Duncan, teams can collapse in the paint and force a very difficult shot, or force him to pass out. He just doesn't have the same real estate or reportoire.

Duncan is our foundation. He's had his clutch moments over the years, but it seems like Manu is more prepared and comfortable taking that last shot. He wants the ball in his hands with the game on the line.

:toast

[ajballer4]

Thing is...Pop always runs the play for some random person to take the shot, but Gino always runs the play

[SpurCharger]

Ball In Manu's Hands, and Let Him Shot or create for someone else.....

[kace]

LOL after all your rant and facts............ manu 106.............tony 5 ..... don't you think you're just wasting your time lol

well, if my goal was to stop the manu balls over sucking and the TP underrating in this forum, yes, i would be wasting my time.

still, manu is the third most clutch player of the team, by almost any stat avaible. which doesn't mean he isn't clutch though.

the fact that tony has the third best FG % on the NBA in game winning shots for the last decade in the espn stat is just amazing, like it or not.

[Fermixalot]

Manu creates the shot TP drains it :wakeup

/thread

[SpursNextRomanEmpire]

Manu, easily

[carina_gino20]

My wife didn't vote and the twins either. I swear RT @PeterBurnsRadio:82% of #Spurs fans want @manuginobili taking the last shot 4 the win.

http://twitter.com/manuginobili/status/10935608567

:lol

[senorglory]

http://i193.photobucket.com/albums/z147/td4evar/2007%20-%202008/07%20-%2008%20Playoffs/th_Game1Round1-DuncanHits24th3PointerO.jpg (http://s193.photobucket.com/albums/z147/td4evar/2007%20-%202008/07%20-%2008%20Playoffs/?action=view&current=Game1Round1-DuncanHits24th3PointerO.jpg)

[kace]

FG % in game winning shot for 5 seasons (from 2003/04 till 2008/09):

Tim: 39 %
tony: 37.5 %
manu: 28.5 %

...................





* The best field goal percentage, on potential game-tying or game-winning field goals in the last 10 seconds of the fourth quarter or overtime......
* Over the last decade, by field goal percentage the best shooters in this setting have been Carmelo Anthony (13-28, .464), Pau Gasol (9-22, .409), Tony Parker (11-29, .379), Chris Paul (9-24, .375) and Shawn Marion (10-28, .357). Bryant over the same period is 26-89 (.292).

TP seems a good option :)


against the mavs, 5 minutes or less when the two teams differential is at most two possessions (6 pts) :

- manu : 1/5
- TP : 5/6 (the missed one a long contested one from an inbound pass with the clock running down)

well, nothing new, but i'd really like that manu let the job to tony. Keep doing what is working for several years now.

[Blackjack]

The thing with Tony is, he's got a go-to shot in the clutch. And because of who he's surrounded with and the speed he threatens to turn the corner with, he's just about always going to get a decent shot to execute -- it's a lot like Bibby, where he likes to shoot, but he's better creating his own off the dribble than coming off a screen (though he has improved on the catch-and-shoot).

Manu's a clutch playmaker who's capable of hitting the big shot, but you don't usually see him hitting the end-game shot. He hits the clutch daggers and go-aheads during the game at some of the biggest, pendulum-swinging moments, but if he's not capable of getting to the rim, you just don't generally see Manu hit those shots late. (The last one I can recall was against Minnesota.)

But you want him with the ball more often than not, and you definitely want him at the line over anyone else.

When it comes to clutch shooting, I really believe the best weapon is the mid-range game. And since that's become Tony's go-to shot late and it's a big part of Tim's face-up game (catching off the pick-and-pop or finishing of others penetration), I'd want those two shooting the ball over Manu; but I'd prefer it come off of Manu's play-making and after it's been determined Manu can't get to the rim (where he can finish or get fouled -- which is usually the higher percentage play).

As for the stats, I take them with a grain of salt when it comes to this particular facet. They tend to be deceiving in this aspect.

If you're someone that's a designated closer for a team and asked to come through time-and-time again, the numbers tend to skew. You're put in a position to make the right play, at the right time, and you're asked to do it when the opposition knows full well your purpose -- they game plan for it. You're seeing better, tougher defense and you're often times forced to take less-than-ideal shots -- it doesn't matter where you are on the floor, if you've got the seams lined up, if you're in a rhythm or having an off night ... you're expected to take-and-make the shot or play. Thus, percentages go down and it paints a deceptive picture.

[Waps1980]

Manu cos if there is a foul on the play he's the only one out of those 3 I want shooting pressure ft's.

Who'd hit game winners this season for us?
I recall RJ hitting a shot to put a game in OT.

[milkyway21]

:lmao @ Mason

[Sense]

I picked Manu, mainly because of how he's played recently....

But looking back at the championship runs... or most of them, Tony Parker's mid range jumper has killed a lot of teams.



Either one...

[m33p0]

is it a question of who has the ball in the final play?
- Manu, of course.
or who actually shoots it?
-Tim, cuz he's done it so many times.

[GSH]

We're talking about current, and not history - right? Because right now I would pick George Hill. Manu out of the ones on the poll, but if the other team is packing the paint (think last 3 minutes of Game 6) and someone has to shoot a jumper, I would put the ball in Hill's hands.

[exstatic]

Tim is pretty fucking clutch, unless it's a tip in. :lol

[Avitus1]

:lol Anyone else not named Roger Mason