mogrovejo
03-30-2010, 10:07 PM
[I edited out some parts]
Things change.
And when you get a conference like the current West, in which razor-thin margins separate teams both in the standings and in terms of their general competitiveness, things can change very quickly. Seemingly minor developments are enough to shift an advantage one team had over another to a disadvantage, caused by an injury, or a trade, or a rapidly developing player, or a hundred other reasons.
Most of the differences are small enough to be irrelevant -- they'll all be a day older, for instance, and they might be a bit more experienced, or more tired, or have slightly more or less brotherly love in the locker room than 24 hours earlier.
However, seven of the eight playoff teams in the West (a group we can identify with virtually dead certainty after Memphis' loss in Milwaukee last night; while still mathematically alive, the Grizzlies' Playoff Odds stand at 0.1 percent as of today) have experienced a systemic jolt in the past several days large enough that it could cause us to re-evaluate their prospects going forward. While none are of the cataclysmic variety, I reiterate that we're dealing with miniscule differences heading into the Western Conference playoffs: Six teams stand within three points of each other in today's Power Rankings (http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings).
In that environment, a little change can lead to a lot of outcome. And it's especially true when nearly all the changes for the top teams have been negative, and nearly all the changes to the bottom teams have been positive. At times one wonders where we'd finish with an eight-way tie for first if the season lasted long enough.
Dallas: Rodrigue Beaubois (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3963)
OK, I've saved the best for last. I was unmoved by the Mavs' raves over Beaubois early in the season, figuring if he couldn't beat out J.J. Barea he wasn't worth spilling much ink over. For four months that proved true, but he has completely blown up in March and spawned "Free Roddy" campaigns across the Metroplex.
Beaubois' exclamation point was his 40-point outburst against Golden State on Saturday; while the list of players who have torched the Warriors isn't exactly a select group, he's been providing spectacular offensive fireworks the entire month. Check out these March numbers: a Kobe-esque 31.1 points per 40 minutes, 58.9 percent shooting and 48.8 percent on 3s. He's been so good, in fact, that he now leads all rookies in PER (http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics?position=rookies).
We can't expect him to produce quite this bountifully going forward, but subjectively his strong play isn't difficult to explain. One of the best athletes from overseas in recent years, he's best described as a hybrid of Tony Parker and Leandro Barbosa (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2166) -- he's French, small and fast like Parker, but like Barbosa he is a good outside shooter with straight-line speed who has played dramatically better as a 2.
Beaubois has been under control, too, with only nine turnovers in 10 games in March, excluding last week's one-minute outings against Boston and Portland.
(Insert sound of needle scratching across record.)
Wait … one-minute outings? This guy? How?
Well, he's not the easiest guy for whom to find good matchups. He's basically a 6-foot-2 shooting guard, at least for the purposes of this season's Mavericks (the long-term plan is for him to play the point), so one can understand the reluctance to pair him in a small backcourt with Barea, or a small and passer-less one with Jason Terry (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=841).
Here's the thing: They might as well, because there's really nothing to lose here. Even the most avid Mavs Kool-Aid drinker would have to concede that a Beaubois-less Dallas rotation is winning one playoff round at best.
Beaubois does three things for Dallas: He mends a glaring defensive weakness against quick point guards, he solves the need for another player who can create his own shot and he fixes an athleticism deficit the Mavs still face against several Western powers.
After his breakout by the Bay, the instinct is to replace Barea with Beaubois and leave the rest of the rotation intact. Actually, I'd argue for stronger medicine: Start the guy, keep Terry coming off the bench and play Barea and Terry together against opposing second units.
Shifting the rest of the rotation isn't rocket science. Having Beaubois or Terry check 2s is a worry when they're in the game together, but Caron Butler (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1705) isn't exactly contending for defensive player of the year either. Despite a superficially impressive scoring average, Butler also has the worst PER of the Mavs' revised eight-man rotation; if you're curious, that's true even of his post-trade numbers. Moving Butler into a 20-minute bench role would free Roddy, and there's really no reason not to try it -- freeing Roddy might be the only thing that can keep Dallas from freeing its golf clubs this spring.
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I agree. Except that I've been saying that Beabouis is the best prospect as a guard in this draft post Evans/Rubio/Curry/Jennings since... well, the draft.
Things change.
And when you get a conference like the current West, in which razor-thin margins separate teams both in the standings and in terms of their general competitiveness, things can change very quickly. Seemingly minor developments are enough to shift an advantage one team had over another to a disadvantage, caused by an injury, or a trade, or a rapidly developing player, or a hundred other reasons.
Most of the differences are small enough to be irrelevant -- they'll all be a day older, for instance, and they might be a bit more experienced, or more tired, or have slightly more or less brotherly love in the locker room than 24 hours earlier.
However, seven of the eight playoff teams in the West (a group we can identify with virtually dead certainty after Memphis' loss in Milwaukee last night; while still mathematically alive, the Grizzlies' Playoff Odds stand at 0.1 percent as of today) have experienced a systemic jolt in the past several days large enough that it could cause us to re-evaluate their prospects going forward. While none are of the cataclysmic variety, I reiterate that we're dealing with miniscule differences heading into the Western Conference playoffs: Six teams stand within three points of each other in today's Power Rankings (http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerrankings).
In that environment, a little change can lead to a lot of outcome. And it's especially true when nearly all the changes for the top teams have been negative, and nearly all the changes to the bottom teams have been positive. At times one wonders where we'd finish with an eight-way tie for first if the season lasted long enough.
Dallas: Rodrigue Beaubois (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3963)
OK, I've saved the best for last. I was unmoved by the Mavs' raves over Beaubois early in the season, figuring if he couldn't beat out J.J. Barea he wasn't worth spilling much ink over. For four months that proved true, but he has completely blown up in March and spawned "Free Roddy" campaigns across the Metroplex.
Beaubois' exclamation point was his 40-point outburst against Golden State on Saturday; while the list of players who have torched the Warriors isn't exactly a select group, he's been providing spectacular offensive fireworks the entire month. Check out these March numbers: a Kobe-esque 31.1 points per 40 minutes, 58.9 percent shooting and 48.8 percent on 3s. He's been so good, in fact, that he now leads all rookies in PER (http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics?position=rookies).
We can't expect him to produce quite this bountifully going forward, but subjectively his strong play isn't difficult to explain. One of the best athletes from overseas in recent years, he's best described as a hybrid of Tony Parker and Leandro Barbosa (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2166) -- he's French, small and fast like Parker, but like Barbosa he is a good outside shooter with straight-line speed who has played dramatically better as a 2.
Beaubois has been under control, too, with only nine turnovers in 10 games in March, excluding last week's one-minute outings against Boston and Portland.
(Insert sound of needle scratching across record.)
Wait … one-minute outings? This guy? How?
Well, he's not the easiest guy for whom to find good matchups. He's basically a 6-foot-2 shooting guard, at least for the purposes of this season's Mavericks (the long-term plan is for him to play the point), so one can understand the reluctance to pair him in a small backcourt with Barea, or a small and passer-less one with Jason Terry (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=841).
Here's the thing: They might as well, because there's really nothing to lose here. Even the most avid Mavs Kool-Aid drinker would have to concede that a Beaubois-less Dallas rotation is winning one playoff round at best.
Beaubois does three things for Dallas: He mends a glaring defensive weakness against quick point guards, he solves the need for another player who can create his own shot and he fixes an athleticism deficit the Mavs still face against several Western powers.
After his breakout by the Bay, the instinct is to replace Barea with Beaubois and leave the rest of the rotation intact. Actually, I'd argue for stronger medicine: Start the guy, keep Terry coming off the bench and play Barea and Terry together against opposing second units.
Shifting the rest of the rotation isn't rocket science. Having Beaubois or Terry check 2s is a worry when they're in the game together, but Caron Butler (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1705) isn't exactly contending for defensive player of the year either. Despite a superficially impressive scoring average, Butler also has the worst PER of the Mavs' revised eight-man rotation; if you're curious, that's true even of his post-trade numbers. Moving Butler into a 20-minute bench role would free Roddy, and there's really no reason not to try it -- freeing Roddy might be the only thing that can keep Dallas from freeing its golf clubs this spring.
------
I agree. Except that I've been saying that Beabouis is the best prospect as a guard in this draft post Evans/Rubio/Curry/Jennings since... well, the draft.