draft87
04-01-2010, 02:37 PM
Looking at the schedule for the rest of the West....doesn't seem like there's any chance of getting past #7. Not that we're incapable of winning, but that the other teams are all playing well and have easier schedules. Suppose we land the #8 spot. and suppose we stop saying, "avoid the Lakers." I enjoyed reading the post by the member who bluntly stated that we have to beat them at some point so why not in the first round? Sean and Bill gave them some good backup on that point during last night's broadcast. And Hollinger just wrote a nice piece about how crappy the Lakeshow has been since the All-Star break. -see below-
The article is an evaluation of each of the bottom 3 teams' advantages over the Lakers. I can't believe it but everything seems pretty spot on.
My additional thoughts come from watching Garrett Temple get more minutes than Ian Mahinmi vs Rockets. If we're heading for a certain #8 spot, or if Pop sits the team down and says, "We're not scared of anyone in any round, on any court" then why the heck not throw some meaningful minutes at Ian? Suppose TD, McDyess, Bonner and (definitely) Blair get into foul trouble with Bynum, Gasol, and Odom. It would be nice to have a confident Ian ready to get thrown in to play some D, grab some boards and hold the fort for a quarter or however long Pop wants to keep the other guys out of foul trouble. If the playoffs started today, Timmy/Dice had 3 first half fouls, Bynum was tearing it up in the post, and we threw Ian in wouldn't he have the "holy shit I"m actually playing non-garbage time AND it's the playoffs" jitters?
If Pop is concerned about him not knowing the plays, the D then get him knowing right now. We're a win or two away from securing a playoff spot and if we're ready to accept whatever seed we get then there's no risk in playing Ian. He'll need to get those turnovers/fouls out of his system but it's not like we'll NOT make the playoffs. I say we just do it. We have essentially no big men.
I know there's a couple more weeks left and the chances of the Lakers not turning it on between now and the playoffs seem slim but suppose they can't get Bynum back in shape, and the bench is weak, and we get a healthy Parker, and they can't defend him, and ___ and ____ yeah, far fetched but it does seem like besides the Nuggest the Lakers could be the most not-together team heading into the postseason.
I know a bunch of you are imagining the sweet revenge on the Lakers being magnified by a ridiculous 8/1 upset, I am too. While we're daydreaming, wouldn't it be totally hilarious if that New Jersey loss ended up being a blessing in disguise? Positioning the Spurs where they can't pass the other teams that winning the last two weeks of the season...therefore getting the chance to both advance and make history?
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The question brought up to me in conversations with a few different media members Wednesday night says all you need to know about the state of the Lakers right now.
"Who do they want in the first round?" they asked, and they asked because, unlike last year, it actually matters.
Last year, Laker observers didn't care if their team played Utah, New Orleans or Dallas to kick off the postseason. The Lakers' first-round foe was merely a speed bump before more challenging opponents that lay in later rounds.
This year? Not so much. The gap between L.A. and its potential Round 1 opponents isn't nearly as large as the No. 1 vs. No. 8 seeding would have you think, especially once one considers recent performance.
Of the three teams the defending champs are likely to face to open the playoffs -- Oklahoma City, Portland or San Antonio -- none looks particularly appetizing.
For instance, here's a quick peek at how L.A. and its potential first-round rivals have fared since the All-Star break:
Portland: 15-5
Oklahoma City: 16-7
San Antonio: 15-8
L.A. Lakers: 13-8
Kind of jarring, ain't it?
Thursday's Power Rankings offer similarly humbling news for the defending champs:
San Antonio: 106.19 (fourth overall)
L.A. Lakers: 104.99 (sixth)
Portland: 104.52 (eighth)
Oklahoma City: 103.96 (10th)
Want more? L.A.'s edge in the Power Rankings over Portland and Oklahoma City was built entirely between November and early February. In the last quarter of each team's schedule, the margin of victory difference is shocking:
San Antonio: +7.0 (fifth)
Portland: +6.6 (sixth)
Oklahoma City: +5.3 (eighth)
L.A. Lakers: +1.2 (15th)
in other words, regardless of the opponent, the Lakers will be facing a team that is playing dramatically better than they are in the first round.
If that isn't enough, flip it over and consider things from the other side of the equation. Both Portland and San Antonio lost all four matchups with Utah this season, but each feels like it has a great shot if it can draw the Lakers. (A columnist in Portland already opined as much a few weeks ago.)
Can you imagine both Portland and Oklahoma City trying to tank on purpose when they meet in both teams' second-to-last game of the season on April 12 in order to avoid Utah and play the Lakers?
Such a scenario was unthinkable last year, or even a month ago. But both teams have reason to feel confident against L.A.. The Blazers own the Lakers in Portland, having won nine of the past 10; in fact, Brandon Roy (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3027) has never lost to L.A. in the Rose Garden. Meanwhile, the Thunder are coming off a 91-75 rout of L.A. earlier this week and had two early-season games with the Lakers -- when L.A. was playing much better than it is now -- go down to the wire.
The real answer to the question "whom would the Lakers prefer to face?" is probably either Dallas or Denver … like L.A., both teams have limped along with weak scoring margins of late. Alas, those are about the two least likely teams for the Lakers to draw based on how the bracket shapes up. Denver, which owns tiebreakers with San Antonio and Oklahoma City, would have to stage a monumental collapse to drop to No. 8, while Dallas is currently in the No. 2 position.
http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2010/0401/nba_g_sefolosha_300.jpgJeff Gross/Getty ImagesThabo Sefolosha is the type of defensive stopper Kobe Bryant doesn't want to see in the first round.
If you're scripting an ideal opponent for the Lakers, you're looking for three things: a lack of guard quickness, since the Lakers' defense struggles to contain speedy guards; a short front line, since Pau Gasol (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=996) abuses defenders who can't match his length; and a lack of a wing stopper to check Kobe Bryant (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=110).
This is the part where a Lakers fan has to look at the matchups and think "uh-oh."
Quick guards? How about Brandon Roy, Jerryd Bayless (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3417) and Andre Miller (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=557) in Portland … or Tony Parker (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1015) in San Antonio … or Russell Westbrook (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3468) in Oklahoma City? This is going to be a problem for L.A. in Round 1, regardless of opponent. I suppose the Lakers would prefer Portland in this analysis since Miller doesn't quite have the jets of the other two guys, but any way you slice it, it's not good.
Length up front? The Blazers' LaMarcus Aldridge (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2983) and Marcus Camby (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=125) stack up inch for inch with the Lakers' Gasol-Bynum pairing. The Spurs, of course, have Tim Duncan (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=215), one of the longest players in the league; however, they lack another rotation player with comparable size. Oklahoma City probably rates worst in this category, although secret bench weapon Serge Ibaka (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3439) makes up for inches with his timing and leaping ability.
Kobe stoppers? The Blazers can throw Nicolas Batum (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3416) and Martell Webster (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2795) at Bryant and bother him with length -- the most reliable way to guard him since he's become so dependent on shooting post-up jumpers. The Thunder own one of the best individual defenders in the league in Thabo Sefolosha (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3028). The Spurs don't have quite as good an arsenal, with Keith Bogans (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1995) the most qualified candidate. So San Antonio would be the preferred opponent in this situation.
Size up the three categories, and I think it's clear the Lakers don't want anything to do with Portland, and wouldn't be real excited to face Oklahoma City either. San Antonio is playing the best of the three teams right now, and the Spurs are always a scary proposition in the postseason … but matchup-wise, this looks like the one L.A. can handle most ably.
It's also the most probable pairing, according to Thursday's Playoff Odds -- Portland and San Antonio both project to finish with 50 wins, but Portland's tiebreaker drops the Spurs to eighth. Conveniently enough, the Spurs also visit Staples Center on Sunday to offer us a potential preview. Take a good look, because what you see might surprise you.
The Lakers may very well avoid joining the 1994 Sonics, 1999 Heat and 2007 Mavs in the infamous group of top-seeded first-round losers, but it won't be an easy ride. That in itself is quite a statement about how the defending champs' play has fallen over the past two months. We're no longer granting them a bye into the Finals and debating whether they can repeat. Instead, we're arguing over whether they can even win a series.
The article is an evaluation of each of the bottom 3 teams' advantages over the Lakers. I can't believe it but everything seems pretty spot on.
My additional thoughts come from watching Garrett Temple get more minutes than Ian Mahinmi vs Rockets. If we're heading for a certain #8 spot, or if Pop sits the team down and says, "We're not scared of anyone in any round, on any court" then why the heck not throw some meaningful minutes at Ian? Suppose TD, McDyess, Bonner and (definitely) Blair get into foul trouble with Bynum, Gasol, and Odom. It would be nice to have a confident Ian ready to get thrown in to play some D, grab some boards and hold the fort for a quarter or however long Pop wants to keep the other guys out of foul trouble. If the playoffs started today, Timmy/Dice had 3 first half fouls, Bynum was tearing it up in the post, and we threw Ian in wouldn't he have the "holy shit I"m actually playing non-garbage time AND it's the playoffs" jitters?
If Pop is concerned about him not knowing the plays, the D then get him knowing right now. We're a win or two away from securing a playoff spot and if we're ready to accept whatever seed we get then there's no risk in playing Ian. He'll need to get those turnovers/fouls out of his system but it's not like we'll NOT make the playoffs. I say we just do it. We have essentially no big men.
I know there's a couple more weeks left and the chances of the Lakers not turning it on between now and the playoffs seem slim but suppose they can't get Bynum back in shape, and the bench is weak, and we get a healthy Parker, and they can't defend him, and ___ and ____ yeah, far fetched but it does seem like besides the Nuggest the Lakers could be the most not-together team heading into the postseason.
I know a bunch of you are imagining the sweet revenge on the Lakers being magnified by a ridiculous 8/1 upset, I am too. While we're daydreaming, wouldn't it be totally hilarious if that New Jersey loss ended up being a blessing in disguise? Positioning the Spurs where they can't pass the other teams that winning the last two weeks of the season...therefore getting the chance to both advance and make history?
--------------------------------------------------------------------
The question brought up to me in conversations with a few different media members Wednesday night says all you need to know about the state of the Lakers right now.
"Who do they want in the first round?" they asked, and they asked because, unlike last year, it actually matters.
Last year, Laker observers didn't care if their team played Utah, New Orleans or Dallas to kick off the postseason. The Lakers' first-round foe was merely a speed bump before more challenging opponents that lay in later rounds.
This year? Not so much. The gap between L.A. and its potential Round 1 opponents isn't nearly as large as the No. 1 vs. No. 8 seeding would have you think, especially once one considers recent performance.
Of the three teams the defending champs are likely to face to open the playoffs -- Oklahoma City, Portland or San Antonio -- none looks particularly appetizing.
For instance, here's a quick peek at how L.A. and its potential first-round rivals have fared since the All-Star break:
Portland: 15-5
Oklahoma City: 16-7
San Antonio: 15-8
L.A. Lakers: 13-8
Kind of jarring, ain't it?
Thursday's Power Rankings offer similarly humbling news for the defending champs:
San Antonio: 106.19 (fourth overall)
L.A. Lakers: 104.99 (sixth)
Portland: 104.52 (eighth)
Oklahoma City: 103.96 (10th)
Want more? L.A.'s edge in the Power Rankings over Portland and Oklahoma City was built entirely between November and early February. In the last quarter of each team's schedule, the margin of victory difference is shocking:
San Antonio: +7.0 (fifth)
Portland: +6.6 (sixth)
Oklahoma City: +5.3 (eighth)
L.A. Lakers: +1.2 (15th)
in other words, regardless of the opponent, the Lakers will be facing a team that is playing dramatically better than they are in the first round.
If that isn't enough, flip it over and consider things from the other side of the equation. Both Portland and San Antonio lost all four matchups with Utah this season, but each feels like it has a great shot if it can draw the Lakers. (A columnist in Portland already opined as much a few weeks ago.)
Can you imagine both Portland and Oklahoma City trying to tank on purpose when they meet in both teams' second-to-last game of the season on April 12 in order to avoid Utah and play the Lakers?
Such a scenario was unthinkable last year, or even a month ago. But both teams have reason to feel confident against L.A.. The Blazers own the Lakers in Portland, having won nine of the past 10; in fact, Brandon Roy (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3027) has never lost to L.A. in the Rose Garden. Meanwhile, the Thunder are coming off a 91-75 rout of L.A. earlier this week and had two early-season games with the Lakers -- when L.A. was playing much better than it is now -- go down to the wire.
The real answer to the question "whom would the Lakers prefer to face?" is probably either Dallas or Denver … like L.A., both teams have limped along with weak scoring margins of late. Alas, those are about the two least likely teams for the Lakers to draw based on how the bracket shapes up. Denver, which owns tiebreakers with San Antonio and Oklahoma City, would have to stage a monumental collapse to drop to No. 8, while Dallas is currently in the No. 2 position.
http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2010/0401/nba_g_sefolosha_300.jpgJeff Gross/Getty ImagesThabo Sefolosha is the type of defensive stopper Kobe Bryant doesn't want to see in the first round.
If you're scripting an ideal opponent for the Lakers, you're looking for three things: a lack of guard quickness, since the Lakers' defense struggles to contain speedy guards; a short front line, since Pau Gasol (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=996) abuses defenders who can't match his length; and a lack of a wing stopper to check Kobe Bryant (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=110).
This is the part where a Lakers fan has to look at the matchups and think "uh-oh."
Quick guards? How about Brandon Roy, Jerryd Bayless (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3417) and Andre Miller (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=557) in Portland … or Tony Parker (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1015) in San Antonio … or Russell Westbrook (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3468) in Oklahoma City? This is going to be a problem for L.A. in Round 1, regardless of opponent. I suppose the Lakers would prefer Portland in this analysis since Miller doesn't quite have the jets of the other two guys, but any way you slice it, it's not good.
Length up front? The Blazers' LaMarcus Aldridge (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2983) and Marcus Camby (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=125) stack up inch for inch with the Lakers' Gasol-Bynum pairing. The Spurs, of course, have Tim Duncan (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=215), one of the longest players in the league; however, they lack another rotation player with comparable size. Oklahoma City probably rates worst in this category, although secret bench weapon Serge Ibaka (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3439) makes up for inches with his timing and leaping ability.
Kobe stoppers? The Blazers can throw Nicolas Batum (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3416) and Martell Webster (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2795) at Bryant and bother him with length -- the most reliable way to guard him since he's become so dependent on shooting post-up jumpers. The Thunder own one of the best individual defenders in the league in Thabo Sefolosha (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3028). The Spurs don't have quite as good an arsenal, with Keith Bogans (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1995) the most qualified candidate. So San Antonio would be the preferred opponent in this situation.
Size up the three categories, and I think it's clear the Lakers don't want anything to do with Portland, and wouldn't be real excited to face Oklahoma City either. San Antonio is playing the best of the three teams right now, and the Spurs are always a scary proposition in the postseason … but matchup-wise, this looks like the one L.A. can handle most ably.
It's also the most probable pairing, according to Thursday's Playoff Odds -- Portland and San Antonio both project to finish with 50 wins, but Portland's tiebreaker drops the Spurs to eighth. Conveniently enough, the Spurs also visit Staples Center on Sunday to offer us a potential preview. Take a good look, because what you see might surprise you.
The Lakers may very well avoid joining the 1994 Sonics, 1999 Heat and 2007 Mavs in the infamous group of top-seeded first-round losers, but it won't be an easy ride. That in itself is quite a statement about how the defending champs' play has fallen over the past two months. We're no longer granting them a bye into the Finals and debating whether they can repeat. Instead, we're arguing over whether they can even win a series.