Manu Ginobili - Stretch Run Analysis

[timvp]

Not long ago, everyone agreed that Manu Ginobili was over the hill and no longer at the peak of his professional career. The question was how much could he still help the team. Fast forward to today and Ginobili is proving that his best may still be yet to come.

It can't be overstated how well Ginobili is playing right now. In 15 games since Tony Parker went down, Ginobili is averaging 25.5 points, 5.6 assists and 4.1 rebounds while shooting 51.2% from the floor, 45.9% on three-pointers and 86.3% at the charity stripe. He's also competing on defense, taking care of the ball, supplying boundless energy and leading the team like he's never led before.

With Tim Duncan not producing at his normal levels in addition to Parker being injured, Ginobili has stepped up to the challenge -- to put it mildly. I learned long ago to never doubt Ginobili but I had no idea he had this level of play in him. After sitting out the summer to rest his legs, he now appears to be in fantastic shape. Add in confidence, determination and a team that is leaning on him and you have the recipe that has made Ginobili into a monster.

The fact that Ginobili is touching the ball more now is part of the reason why he's playing so much better. However, his ability to get to the rim and finish is what has allowed his game to really blossom. Playing off the threat of dribble penetration, Ginobili can get space on the perimeter to shoot three-pointers or create the angles needed to make plays for others, even when other teams completely gear their defense to stop him.



Field Goal Attempts Per Game at the Rim
http://img260.imageshack.us/img260/8743/mg1e.jpg

Field Goal Percentage at the Rim
http://img215.imageshack.us/img215/5153/mg2y.jpg

When Ginobili's career is legitimately concluded, the last five games he just played will be remembered as one of his best stretches. He led the team to victories over the Lakers, Magic, Rockets, Celtics and Cavs with averages of 30.2 points, 6.6 assists and 4.6 rebounds. In the one contest he doesn't play, the Spurs lose to the lowly Nets. Fascinating and extremely telling of Ginobili's value at this point.

Speaking of the Nets game, that highlights Ginobili's one weakness at this point: stamina. Ginobili is being forced to play a lot of minutes and take a lot of hits. Can his body hold up? Let us hope.

[Doctor J]

He's Manu Ginobili.

[spursfaninla]

This stretch also proves that Manu could have easily been the number 1 option on a team during the last 5 years and put up monster numbers (but for injury last year, etc).

It has been a pleasure to watch him. You have to ask yourself, do you really take the ball out of his hands when parker comes back?

[MaNu4Tres]

Nice dig!! And welcome back.

Ginobili is the obvious answer to the recent surge.

But we can't overlook the play of R.J/ Hill/ Bonner either. Those three guys have picked up their games as well.

In addition to those four players improving their play (most importantly the dominance of Manu Ginobili), Pop made it aware to the media indicating that the strength of schedule has force the Spurs to focus and play better as a unit on both ends and cut out some of the sloppy play. “If we were playing the worst teams in the league, I don't think we'd have got to this point, playing this well." In my opinion this also shouldn't be ignored for their recent surge.







What if Manu Ginobili can keep playing at this level? What if Tim Duncan continues his recent resurgence? What if health can be restored in time? What if the chemistry continues to improve? What if all the contenders continue to sport chinks in their armor?



If those If's pan out, this will go down as the most memorable Spurs' season ever.

[EricB]

It reminds you almost of the boost and help that Clyde drexler provided the rockets in 1995.
If Duncan can continue his uptrend and parker just integrate slowly they have a chance to do something special.

[L.I.T]

Tony Parker coming back will only help Manu.

He has never really shown in his career the stamina and endurance to be a 35+ minute a game player over long stretches. Hell, I remember early in his career when he even said he likely would never be a 20 point a game scorer in the league. Which just proves he's better than even he knew.

But anyway, Manu has been playing a ton of minutes and I worry about his ability to keep it up going into the playoffs. If the Spurs are really as good as they appear, can he still sustain this level of play all the way to a Game 6 or 7 during the WCF?

Manu Ginobili needs Tony Parker back to help limit his minutes and keep him rested. I have no worries about their chemistry: They have too much history and too much respect for one another.

The tragedy of this season would be that Manu became worn out from playing too many minutes keeping the Spurs in the playoff hunt; much like what happen to TD, and to a lesser extent TP, last year.

And I say this as one of the few who kept supporting Manu early in the season when he was struggling with confidence. Manu needs TP back.

[jiggy_55]

Speaking of the Nets game, that highlights Ginobili's one weakness at this point: stamina. Ginobili is being forced to play a lot of minutes and take a lot of hits. Can his body hold up? Let us hope.

I guess then that it was a blessing in disguise that he got some rest (while actually injured) against the Nets. It at least gave him a a few days extra off to rest his legs.

[Blake]

If this were anyone else, I'd say "contract year".

But seeing as how Manu plays balls out whenever he's healthy at any time of the season in any given year, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt that he is just being his usual badass self.

[Cane]

PER-wise; Ginobili has reached the top 10, sitting at the no. 9 spot.

Ginobili and Wade are the only two SG's in the top 10; Kobe Bryant is at no. 14

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics?&action=login&appRedirect=http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics

[raspsa]

I never believed Manu was over the hill. He showed flashes of what he was capable of from time to time only to succumb to injuries. Now that his body is healed, so has his game.

[Cane]

If this were anyone else, I'd say "contract year".

But seeing as how Manu plays balls out whenever he's healthy at any time of the season in any given year, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt that he is just being his usual badass self.

Healthy Manu + contract year = HOLY SHIT! :wow

[urunobili]

and timvp with a home run comeback thread :tu

[MmP]

Anyone is really that surpraised?
Im not, and Im dead serious here. I've seen him take his teams to great levels with great numers and plays. When Tony has been out in past years he's averaged these numers. And in 2005 it has been the same situation with Tony not being that agressive.
Im not that impressed but actually enjoying it and finally the NBA paying attention to it.

[dbestpro]

Manu is such a crazy player and defies all of the standards that I would not be surprised if he can play at a high level for another 3-4 years.

[Doctor J]

It reminds you almost of the boost and help that Clyde drexler provided the rockets in 1995.
If Duncan can continue his uptrend and parker just integrate slowly they have a chance to do something special.


Agreed!

[Libri]

Not long ago, everyone agreed that Manu Ginobili was over the hill and no longer at the peak of his professional career. The question was how much could he still help the team. Fast forward to today and Ginobili is proving that his best may still be yet to come.

It can't be overstated how well Ginobili is playing right now. In 15 games since Tony Parker went down, Ginobili is averaging 25.5 points, 5.6 assists and 4.1 rebounds while shooting 51.2% from the floor, 45.9% on three-pointers and 86.3% at the charity stripe. He's also competing on defense, taking care of the ball, supplying boundless energy and leading the team like he's never led before.Manu is making a statement that he wants to get paid, deserves to get paid and wants to stay.

[DesignatedT]

Those charts say it all.

[DAF86]

I just hope he can keep his energy and health 'till the end of the playoffs.

[ohmwrecker]

Not long ago, everyone agreed that Manu Ginobili was over the hill and no longer at the peak of his professional career.

Not everyone, Bubba.

[ElNono]

"Manu will be fine" :hat

[ginobilized]

Wow....great post...I didn't even notice it was a Timvp thread....great to have your keen insights back here.

[Phenomanul]

PER-wise; Ginobili has reached the top 10, sitting at the no. 9 spot.

Ginobili and Wade are the only two SG's in the top 10; Kobe Bryant is at no. 14

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics?&action=login&appRedirect=http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics

What's surprising is that Duncan and Ginobili have the fewest minutes of anyone in that group not named Oden...

Another telling stat is that Manu has the highest True shooting percentage of any guard or perimeter player in the top-10 not named Lebron...

[HarlemHeat37]

PER favors less minutes and more production, so the fact that they have played fewer minutes actually benefits them on this list..

[Ginobilly]

Manu is such a crazy player and defies all of the standards that I would not be surprised if he can play at a high level for another 3-4 years.

It's possible. If you look at other players that are around his age, Kobe/Carter/pierce, he has a lot less miles on his legs than them. Reasons?? He played in Euroleague, where they only play around 50+ games a year, and also pop has micro managed his minutes over the years. I also like to use San Antonio's very own Shawn Micheals as in example. He took a good 5 years off from wrestling and it did wonders for his tired body. When he came in 02, he had almost regained all of his athleticism than he had when he was 30.

[MannyIsGod]

I was wrong about Manu never living up to 2006 status again because thats exactly what he's doing. I think I share a few concerns with most other Spurs fans in that we have no idea how well he'll hold up and I can't help but wonder how much of this is contract year related.

In the end however, I have renewed faith in Manu after 2 fairly poor years by his standards and I hope he's able to produce at this level for the Spurs in the playoffs and for years to come. I'm glad to have this Manu back.

[MannyIsGod]

It's possible. If you look at other players that are around his age, Kobe/Carter/pierce, he has a lot less miles on his legs than them. Reasons?? He played in Euroleague, where they only play around 50+ games a year, and also pop has micro managed his minutes over the years. I also like to use San Antonio's very own Shawn Micheals as in example. He took a good 5 years off from wrestling and it did wonders for his tired body. When he came in 02, he had almost regained all of his athleticism than he had when he was 30.

:lol

The first part of your post is good but please never compare NBA basketball to acting ever again.

Thanks.

[Blake]

I also like to use San Antonio's very own Shawn Micheals as in example. He took a good 5 years off from wrestling and it did wonders for his tired body.

I've heard that steroids do wonders as well.

[Ginobilly]

:lol

The first part of your post is good but please never compare NBA basketball to acting ever again.

Thanks.

Manny, it may be acting, but those wrestlers put a lot of strain on their bodies more so than other athletes. I know SM recently retired, but how many 45 year old's could do what he does in the ring at his age?? At that age, Ric flair and hulk hogan just stuck to boring fake punching and kicking. Shawn Micheals retired being able to still wrestle at a high level.

[HarlemHeat37]

Pro wrestling obviously takes a much bigger toll on the body than basketball does, no comparison..

I understand the comparison from a physical ability standpoint, but it's obviously much different, so I doubt Ginobilly meant it in that way..

[Ginobilly]

I've heard that steroids do wonders as well.

yeah, that too, but when you rest and don't play, less likely to waste your body's precious "miles".

[Ginobilly]

Pro wrestling obviously takes a much bigger toll on the body than basketball does, no comparison..

I understand the comparison from a physical ability standpoint, but it's obviously much different, so I doubt Ginobilly meant it in that way..

I should of used Grant Hill as an example, or that And1 street baller, who in his late 30's was still cathing alley-oops and playing like he was 28. His secret?? Rest, and didn't play competitive b-ball for over a decade. That's a good way to preserve your body.

[Ginobilly]

Point is that Manu is playing and moving a lot younger than he really is. I think it's the rest and the docs must of done a really job on his ankle.:toast

[phxspurfan]

Speaking of the Nets game, that highlights Ginobili's one weakness at this point: stamina. Ginobili is being forced to play a lot of minutes and take a lot of hits. Can his body hold up? Let us hope.

Let us pray!

[Manufan909]

Nice dig!! And welcome back.

Ginobili is the obvious answer to the recent surge.

But we can't overlook the play of R.J/ Hill/ Bonner either. Those three guys have picked up their games as well.

In addition to those four players improving their play (most importantly the dominance of Manu Ginobili), Pop made it aware to the media indicating that the strength of schedule has force the Spurs to focus and play better as a unit on both ends and cut out some of the sloppy play. “If we were playing the worst teams in the league, I don't think we'd have got to this point, playing this well." In my opinion this also shouldn't be ignored for their recent surge.



What if Manu Ginobili can keep playing at this level? What if Tim Duncan continues his recent resurgence? What if health can be restored in time? What if the chemistry continues to improve? What if all the contenders continue to sport chinks in their armor?




If those If's pan out, this will go down as the most memorable Spurs' season ever.

What thread is that quote from?

[TD 21]

Not to rain on Ginobili's parade, but the Spurs lost that game to the Nets because they were on the second game of a back to back, but even more so because with Parker already out, Mason leaving the game injured and no true third point guard, they were down to one ball handler, Hill, who's really a combo guard. If they had a run of the mill backup point guard, such as Watson or Duhon, they'd have won that game. The loss was more about that and less about Ginobili's value to the team.

[quentin_compson]

Over the past couple of weeks, Manu has been one of the best players in this league, I guess. And come playoff time, I'd still take Manu over any SG not named Kobe Bryant or Dwyane Wade.

The point is: If Manu is going to play anywhere this level in the playoffs, there probably will be teams which are going to offer him good money. Now, will the Spurs then be ready to "overpay" him? I think they should, because if you're going to make the best of Tim's final years, there won't be any SG like Manu you will be able to get.

[Martin R]

It's a pitty the SPURS didn't offer Manu an extension early this year, although I understand their business decision. You are not going to invest on assets not returnig the money due to breakdowns....
Now that assest will cost the SPURS +20MM than 2 month ago. It was a business decision by the SPURS Org, it went wrong for them, it went great for Manu.