Tim Duncan - Stretch Run Analysis

[timvp]

Thanks to the foundation Tim Duncan has laid in San Antonio over the last decade, the Spurs have become a model of consistency. Year in and year out everyone knows the sole focus of the Spurs is to win basketball games -- and they do just that. Unfortunately, that foundation has begun to show some wear and tear. For the second consecutive campaign, Duncan's play has dropped off as the season has progressed.

This year, the decline has been more of a mystery. A year ago, Duncan was dealing with a pair of painful knees. By all accounts, Duncan is feeling fine physically. And yet, the in-season declines the last two seasons are strikingly similar.



Tim Duncan: This Year vs. Last Year
http://img62.imageshack.us/img62/2668/td1q.jpg

After watching tape of Duncan in March and Duncan earlier in the season, my working hypothesis is that he's suffering from fatigue. Offensively, he's been painfully bland with his moves. It has been a rare sight over the last month to see Duncan use anything other than a basic move on the low block. Physical defense has also been thwarting Duncan more than usual.

Defensively, Duncan has been average. He's defending relatively well in one-on-one situations and he's giving effort when protecting the rim, although he has oftentimes been a step slow to react. That slowness has really been evident in his rebounding. Duncan began the month of March with seven straight games of single-digit board work.

The hypothesis of fatigue being the culprit is backed up by the statistics. The last five times Duncan has played in the second game of a back-to-back, he has averaged 11.4 points and 6.0 rebounds while shooting 37.7% from the field. In that same time period, he's averaging 15.6 points and 8.6 rebounds on 53.8% field goal shooting when he has at least one day of rest.

If fatigue is indeed what has been hindering Duncan, that's one of the better scenarios. He could conceivably catch a second wind and return to his dominating ways of earlier in the season. And if the last two games are any indication, that may be exactly what is happening. To begin April, Duncan has played 62 minutes and has 57 points and 19 rebounds on 20-for-26 shooting from the floor while going up against legit competition in Orlando (Dwight Howard) and Los Angeles (Pau Gasol).

Oh and if you ever want to feel better about Duncan's level of play, turn on a Celtics game and watch Kevin Garnett to see what a completely worn and torn Hall of Fame power forward looks like.

[Cane]

Awesome post.

I do think its been fatigue thats been hindering Duncan, the Spurs have had a crazy schedule in this stretch run.

And the remaining run has what? 4 games in 5 days including two more back to backs? Duncan's been looking a lot better recently though.

Earlier in the season, Duncan was having some of his best numbers and best "per-minute" numbers for his career despite averaging a career low in minutes.

As for his post moves, IIRC wasn't Duncan supposed to be taking more jumpshots and less work in the post this season? I think he mentioned that or Pop did, maybe that helps explain his relatively unimpressive post work this season.

[Dex]

Oh and if you ever want to feel better about Duncan's level of play, turn on a Celtics game and watch Kevin Garnett to see what a completely worn and torn Hall of Fame power forward looks like.

http://nsa15.casimages.com/img/2010/03/29/1003290432566819.gif

[duncan228]

Fatigue is the best case scenario, and Duncan's competitive drive rises even more in the Playoffs and could give him that second-wind. But I'm still watching his knees. From what I understand the pain in his knees varies and can flare-up on any given night. He says he feels fine, but he's not one to play the injury card. Duncan has played well through pain over the years, I expect he still can.

Whatever the case may be, I believe in Duncan and know he'll bring his best and leave it on the court. :)


Thanks for all the write-ups. Great to have you back. :tu

[DesignatedT]

Taking a look at those charts could be a bit disturbing but what we have seen from Tim the last 2 games has shown us that he still has it. Fatigue is definitely the problem and im glad there is no b2b in the playoffs. Just have to keep him fresh and he will be fine.

[DAF86]

You know Tim will average at the very least 18 and 8 in the playoffs.

[DesignatedT]

You know Tim will average at the very least 18 and 8 in the playoffs.

That's for sure. It's more about what % hes shooting at and if he is still effective enough to draw the double team every time down the floor. He could average 18 and 8 by floating around the perimeter and shooting jumpers every game but of course we don't want that. He needs to feel healthy enough to get inside and bang.

[NFGIII]

I agree with you Timvp that fatigue weems to be the culprit and it's been a shame that the Spurs can't get a legit 5 to take some of the burden off TD. And small ball didn't help either. Hopefully Splitter comes next year.

I would like to see his minutes go down since they have a PO spot locked up but jockeying for position may still be a concern for Pop. And with TP/HIll out and RMJ/Dice not prerforming up to par this team is thin at this point and needs to keep the Mo going. Having that Mo going into the POs is a great advantage for any team. I'd hate to lose that.

So how do the Spurs keep their Mo going but also get TD and Manu sufficient rest entering the POs? If this team enters the POs tired the results wont be pretty. IMHO

The Spurs didn't get a break with the HIll injury. Talk about poor timing. But that seems to just another example of how this season has been going. As the Spurs start to get their act together something disrupts it and they have to start over again. :depressed

This season has been one that has tried the patience of most Spurs fans. Hoepfully there are many silver linings in what has happened to them this season. One can only hope and believe.

[DesignatedT]

So how do the Spurs keep their Mo going but also get TD and Manu sufficient rest entering the POs? If this team enters the POs tired the results wont be pretty. IMHO


Before seeing these last 2 games i would have been up to maybe even sitting him until the playoffs but hes given us hope with those performances against howard/gasol. Duncan's minutes need to continue to be monitored no matter what though and Pop knows this. I hope Manu doesn't "run out of gas" or "get fatigued". He pretty much took half a season off this year so he should be good to go. Shouldn't be much excuses coming from his part.

What this team desperately needs is Tony to come back.

[HarlemHeat37]

Duncan looks A LOT better at this point than he did at the same point last year IMO..there's no way he would have been able to do what he has done in these last few games if this was last year..

Last year he couldn't get anything going until the last game of the season vs. New Orleans, a team that didn't have any notable defenders in that game..

So it encourages me to see him playing like he has in these last few games vs. some quality defenders..

[jestersmash]

I'm not worried about Duncan at all.

[Fernando TD21]

I didn't realize before that Duncan started this season so well. I knew he was playing well but I didn't kow he was averaging as many points as he was averaging last season even though he is playing less minutes this season.

[Spurs Brazil]

Duncan looks A LOT better at this point than he did at the same point last year IMO..there's no way he would have been able to do what he has done in these last few games if this was last year..

Agree, I always remember that Portland game.

After see the games against Magic and LA I have no doubt we'll see the same playoffs Timmy

[scottspurs]

Duncan will average 20-10 with 3 blocks and 5 assists in the playoffs. And good point on Duncan looking better during this year's stretch run than last year HH37. Duncan just went through a little funk, but he will be Duncan when the playoffs start.

[TIMMYD!]

I'm not worried about Tim.

He'll pick it up in the playoffs and prove everyone wrong.

[benefactor]

Very nice breakdown. Glad to see you back.

After the Nets game I was feeling pretty down about him. As you pointed out, he stumbled into the first half of the month looking like he couldn't rebound to save his own life. When he couldn't get it done in NJ after only playing 18 minutes going into the 4th and playing only 26 minutes the night before, I was sure he was seriously starting to run out of gas(he went 2-6 from the field in that quarter and had the bad turnover).

Since then he has seemingly sent me a message...a message that says don't write me off yet. It's been pretty convincing too, with him shooting 73.8% over the next three games and registering two double/doubles and two 20+ point outings. And as you pointed out, two of those games were against high quality opposition.

The raging skeptic in me is still holding out for a definitive answer...an answer I will get over the next six games. If he pushes through and continues to play at the high level he displayed in the past three games I will hold onto hope that playoff Duncan will emerge. Here's to hoping that the old man has one more full clip left on his belt.

[HarlemHeat37]

It's going to be different..

Coming into the season, I was hoping Duncan would focus more on defending and rebounding with all the offensive weapons the Spurs have now..unfortunately he couldn't since he had to carry the team throughout the 1st half of the season..

Hopefully with Parker and Hill healthy, Duncan could fall back as the 3rd scoring option and focus more on defense and rebounding..he'll still be a huge part of this team offensively, but it might be the first time we'll ever see him as the #3 scoring option, at least I hope..

[Man In Black]

If you look at Tim statistically, he's been the best Spurs player the ENTIRE season.
His per minute scores, Points Created Method or Hollinger's PER show that he's been as effective as ever.

You guys have no idea how it is to hear about the Spurs here in So Cal. Out here on most media formats, the team is generally regarded with:
1st disdain
2nd disrespect
3rd disregard

I hear how the Spurs lost to the Nets, that Pau Gasol looked dominant in that LAL win at ATT, and how Bean Bryant looks fierce and how the rest of the West' records against the team is abysmal.

Fuck all that. They never talk about all the games played in the "Death March" about how many minutes were played during that crazy 2 weeks of big games and about how the team looks now. At first I thought it was just the punk ass 4-letter network but you know what, it's even the NBA network that disregards the Silver & Black. Sleep on them, go right ahead media.

Here's a 4th D word for you-Distinguished.
There ain't anybody in the NBA who has accomplished more than the Distinguished Gentleman from St. Croix, US Virgin Islands

Here's a 5th D word....Come playoff time, he's going to be DOMINANT.
:flag::flag::flag::flag:

[quentin_compson]

I didn't realize before that Duncan started this season so well. I knew he was playing well but I didn't kow he was averaging as many points as he was averaging last season even though he is playing less minutes this season.

Tim was playing an MVP-type season in the first couple of months. He was unbelievably effective. No one could have expected that to last.


It's going to be different..

Coming into the season, I was hoping Duncan would focus more on defending and rebounding with all the offensive weapons the Spurs have now..unfortunately he couldn't since he had to carry the team throughout the 1st half of the season..

That would be great, and if Tony comes back in time to get in game shape, this could be the case in an ideal world.
Hopefully with Parker and Hill healthy, Duncan could fall back as the 3rd scoring option and focus more on defense and rebounding..he'll still be a huge part of this team offensively, but it might be the first time we'll ever see him as the #3 scoring option, at least I hope..

[Cant_Be_Faded]

I have no idea what to think about Duncan.

Some games he looks like his knees are stiff, some games he looks like he just is deliberately using as little energy as possible, and yet some games I catch him using a burst of power and speed as if he was just saving it.

It is one of the bigger question marks going into the playoffs

[Manu-of-steel]

Fatigue is the best case scenario, and Duncan's competitive drive rises even more in the Playoffs and could give him that second-wind. But I'm still watching his knees. From what I understand the pain in his knees varies and can flare-up on any given night. He says he feels fine, but he's not one to play the injury card. Duncan has played well through pain over the years, I expect he still can.

Whatever the case may be, I believe in Duncan and know he'll bring his best and leave it on the court. :)


Thanks for all the write-ups. Great to have you back. :tu

Agree! TD turns it up a notch in the PO, that's why my hopes are high for this team come PO time.

[manustarting2gd]

C.I.A. Duncan!

[senorglory]

He'll be there when we need him. At least one more time.

http://i193.photobucket.com/albums/z147/td4evar/2007%20-%202008/07%20-%2008%20Playoffs/tduncan_2008Round1Game1.jpg

[raspsa]

I think its more a case of Duncan sacrificing his game in favor of his teammates and maybe just a little boredom, specially when facing mediocre opponents. When he puts his mind to the job at hand, as in the Lakers game where he was motivated to make up for a lackluster performance in their previous encounter, he was great.
Oc course the fatigue factor comes into play. He's also playing at a lighter weight w/c hurts him when he has to fight for position down low. He also seems to be falling to the floor more often nowadays.
Bottom line is I think come the POs, Timmy will once again raise his level of play.

[greyforest]

i think players dont push themselves until the POs because it damages their bodies, especially when they are older

[Mr.Robinson]

You know Tim will average at the very least 18 and 8 in the playoffs.

He needs to get 22 and 12.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

Nice analysis, timvp. :tu

I think he'll feel a lot better after the break to end the regular season, and with the breaks between games in the playoffs. We often see a poor first game of the playoffs from Tim, but after that the killer instinct kicks in and he excels.

People will laugh at this, but maybe it's time to start sitting Timmy until January, especially if he wants to play on after 2012. He's played 1120 games at this stage, and terminal physical decline is an inevitability.

If we can sign an offensive post threat (Splitter, perhaps - Scola would have been perfect) who can take some of the weight off Timmy, why not let him sit the first months of the season and save his energy for when it is most useful? We need him in April, May and June, not December, so I think it's time to let the youngsters take on the grunt work.

[Spurs7794]

People will laugh at this, but maybe it's time to start sitting Timmy until January, especially if he wants to play on after 2012. He's played 1120 games at this stage, and terminal physical decline is an inevitability.

If we can sign an offensive post threat (Splitter, perhaps - Scola would have been perfect) who can take some of the weight off Timmy, why not let him sit the first months of the season and save his energy for when it is most useful? We need him in April, May and June, not December, so I think it's time to let the youngsters take on the grunt work.

One thing this season should have taught us is how hard it is to develop chemistry. If we sat Duncan for half the season on purpose, it would be very tough to gel properly by playoff time incorporating our centerpiece (other than Bogans) into the rotation.

Plus, I think Tim would hate that idea. Can't imagine anyone wanting to just sit out 3 months after a 3 month summer break.

[HarlemHeat37]

I like the idea of resting Duncan a lot, but not to that extent..I hope he plays around 20MPG in the first half of the season next year(with certain exceptions), and having another big man in the paint will help the wear and tear part..so if Splitter isn't here, the FO better make sure to get somebody else..