Playoff Rotation and Minute Distribution

[timvp]

With the NBA postseason just a few weeks away, it'd be nice if Pop and the Spurs were simply ironing the kinks out of the playoff rotation at this point. But with both point guards injured, Pop will need to be inventive to keep hope alive of not playing the Lakers in the first round.

That said, we've seen enough to get a decent idea of what to expect come playoff time. Tim Duncan in the starting five is obvious. From there, I believe that the next piece in the starting lineup has to be Manu Ginobili. Although he doesn't mind coming off the bench, there's no way Pop should mess with what's working so well. I'd go as far as to say the Spurs should continue to revolve around Ginobili for the rest of the season. If San Antonio is going to make a magical run, it'll be due to a certain Argentine guard staying scorching hot.

With Ginobili in the starting lineup, that means Richard Jefferson has to be in the starting lineup. Without Ginobili by his side, Jefferson has a tendency to play like a lost puppy. Ginobili is the team's playmaker on defense and Jefferson thrives finishing on the fast break -- it's a pairing that makes a lot of sense.

The bigman next to Duncan in the starting lineup should be Antonio McDyess. Truthfully, the reason McDyess starts doesn't have much to do with him. The reason is that both Matt Bonner and DeJuan Blair are better options off the bench. McDyess gets the starting nod by default ... with fingers crossed that he peaks at the right time.

The question on every Spurs fan's mind is what to do at point guard. If George Hill wouldn't have gotten injured, I would have advocated bringing Tony Parker off the bench. Now, with Hill potentially out even longer than Parker, this becomes much more of a dilemma.

As it stands, I think who will start at point guard will come down to which player returns to the court first. If Parker beats Hill back, Parker should start for the rest of the season. If Hill returns first, you have to run with him as the starter considering how well the current starting lineup has played as of late.

Honestly, I'm more comfortable with Parker coming off the bench. Not because I think Hill is better but rather because I think Hill could be lost in the shuffle if put in reserve role. The Spurs need Hill to play a prominent role and starting him is the best way to ensure he has the right frame of mind. On the other hand, Parker's self-confidence might be his biggest strength as a player, so I'd fully expect him to contribute no matter his role.

(For the record, I'm perfectly confident with Parker starting. I know some Spurs fans think that Parker will come back and steal Ginobili's thunder and mute Jefferson's mojo but I'm not worried about that. Parker has proven to be a good defender in the playoffs and his chemistry with Ginobli has been good this season -- even when everything else was amiss. I have no doubts that Parker will give Ginobili the touches he'd need to continue to thrive. It's not like Parker is a stranger to deferring to Ginobili when Ginobili is playing well. If anything, a case can be made for Parker to be placed in the starting lineup no matter what due to the fact that he's the best player on the team when it comes to running a pick-and-roll with Duncan.)

As far as the distribution of minutes in the playoffs, this is how I see it:

Tim Duncan - 38 minutes
In his playoff career, Duncan averages about 40 minutes per game in the playoffs. Pop will probably give him a few extra minuets of rest this year.

Manu Ginobili - 34 minutes
Though Ginobili has never averaged more than 33.6 minutes per game in a playoff run, this year is different. Ginobili being a superhero is mandatory with this group.

Tony Parker - 36 minutes
Even though Parker will still be getting into shape, I don't see him playing less than 36 minutes per game -- even if he's coming off the bench. He has a history of quickly regaining game-shape.

Richard Jefferson - 30 minutes
Jefferson was brought in to soak up minutes but with Ginobili and Hill needing minutes at the swingman positions, I expect Jefferson to play around 30 minutes per game in the playoffs.

George Hill - 32 minutes
Hill has grown to become a big part of this team. Parker returning won't stop him from playing a lot of minutes -- or at least it shouldn't.

Antonio McDyess - 20 minutes
Let's hope McDyess is playing more than just the beginning of each half. If he's playing fourth quarter minutes, that's usually a sign he's producing.

Matt Bonner - 20 minutes
Bonner is a bit of a wild card. He's actually been playing pretty darn well as of late. Unfortunately, bad memories of last year's playoffs have me nervous about his ability to handle 20 minutes of action.

Keith Bogans - 18 minutes
Pop will find a way to play the "centerpiece". If the Spurs go up against a team with star perimeter swingman, he may end up playing even more.

DeJuan Blair - 12 minutes
I think 12 minutes per game is about the ceiling for Blair in his first playoff run. Pop usually plays him while Duncan rests as of late and with Duncan resting less, that means more time on the pine for Blair.

Roger Mason, Jr. - Spot minutes
Mason will have some value in the playoffs. If Parker or Hill are slowed, Mason can buy minutes in the backcourt. He'll also be called upon to spread the court if the other shooters are misfiring.

Broken down into position, I see the playoff rotation looking like this:

PG: Parker 36/Hill 12
SG: Ginobili 28/Hill 20
SF: Jefferson 30/Bogans 12/Ginobili 6
PF: McDyess 20/Bonner 20/Bogans 6/Blair 2
C: Duncan 38/Blair 10

[urunobili]

I wonder if Malik may share spot minutes with Mason... Pop has trusted him on crunch time on several games now all Spurs wins... I hope that now with Hill sidelined he proves he is as strong possibility especially as a defender.

[Libri]

On the other hand, Parker's self-confidence might be his biggest strength as a player, so I'd fully expect him to contribute no matter his role.Perhaps, but if Pop wants Tony to contribute off the bench he will tactfully explain to him that he is going to bring him back slowly and thus justify his bench role.

[ginobilized]

I'm inclined to think that Hairston may enter the playoff equation, if only briefly.
Nice write-up as usual though.

[timvp]

I think Hairston will be on the outside of the rotation looking in. He could get spot minutes as a defender but if the Spurs are healthy, I highly doubt he sees regular minutes. I could be wrong . . .

[Penya]

Mason Jr is a liabily right now, he shouldn't get a single second in a tight game.

[SpursRulez4eVeR]

i would hope a few mins can go to hairston from hill and some of TD's mins to dice/bonner/blair.

[Whisky Dog]

No offense to Timmy and the greatness he's displayed over the course of 13 years, but right now at this moment Ginobili is the franchise for the 2010 playoffs. If he's this good consistently the Spurs can make a legit run.

[DAF86]

I gave this a lot of thought too and I came to the realization that it's almost impossible for Parker to play 36 mins per game if he comes off the bench.

If he comes off the bench, he will miss at least the first 6 minutes of the first and third quarter, that's 12 minutes so for him to play 36 mins per game coming off the bench he will have to play 18 minutes per half in a row without rest, I don't know if that's the smartest way to manage a guy's minutes. If Pop wants to play Tony that amount of minutes (which I think he obviously wants) he has almost no other choice than to start him. Other possibility is to start him on the second half but I don't see the point of starting him in just one half.

[phxspurfan]

I don't know if Hill will be able to handle >30mins/game after his ankle injury.

[timvp]

With the news that Parker returns tonight, I think that means he'll end up being the starter. However, it is interesting that Temple is reportedly going to start at point. That could be Pop keeping the starting job open for Hill.

If TP is starting along with Manu, do you consider starting Hill over Jefferson. I lean toward no just because Jefferson needs Manu but Hill is the better player ... and that's a pretty big factor when actually trying to win games.

[HarlemHeat37]

I tend to agree with most of it..

I think RJ will get a little more than 30 and Bogans will get less than 18..

McDyess and Bonner will compete for minutes..Pop will go with Bonner if he's making shots and not showing weakness under pressure..if he does, Pop won't hesitate to take him out after last year's poor showing IMO..Bonner will be on the floor either way if he's making shots IMO, even if McDyess is playing well too..

I don't think Hairston or Mason will see the floor unless the Spurs need an offensive spark from Mason or a defensive spark from Hairston..I believe Pop is only playing Mason due to necessity, since the Spurs don't have any ballhandlers right now..this could obviously change depending on how Roger plays from now until the playoffs, hopefully he can step up..

These last few games and the severity of Hill's injury will probably determine the starting spot between Hill and Tony..

[Blackjack]

I could see Hairston seeing time at end of quarters or when they're solely looking to lock people down for a stretch, but very situationally.

Before the injuries, I would've said stick with the Parker, Hill, Bogans, 'Dyess and Duncan lineup that Pop settled on. They had finally built some continuity with both units and started to see success. When Parker went down, I figured the best way to keep that continuity for the long haul, and make the easiest transition back once Tony returned, was to substitute Manu for Tony and keep everyone else in their same role; Parker comes back to the group he left and hopefully picks up where they left off and the bench is restored immediately once Manu's returned.

But since that all went to hell, for all intents and purposes, I'm very much thinking Tony should come off the bench if Hill's healthy and able.

I do have some trepidation as it pertains to Tony and RJ, and I'm not all that enthused with the idea of them starting together. But they obviously have to play together, they're too talented and important (Parker more so, obviously), to limit minutes on account of their fit. So I'd put Tony on the bench to start the game, in hopes of RJ and the crew getting into a rhythm and doing what they've been doing, and have him start the second half after there's been some kind of rhythm and confidence built. (We know how much better RJ plays when he's involved and successful early.)

As it pertains to Temple and his starting tonight, I give you Tyreke Evans. Sure, Temple isn't the ideal person you'd like to got to but when you look at the physical matchup, the options available (Tony's likely to just get his feet wet) and the fact that he spent some time with Sacramento this year, I can understand the decision; it's hard to be up in arms when Mason's the alternative.

I don't think Temple's starting has any real bearing on Tony's status moving forward; if all goes well tonight, it wouldn't shock me if he starts against Phoenix.

[MannyIsGod]

With the news that Parker returns tonight, I think that means he'll end up being the starter. However, it is interesting that Temple is reportedly going to start at point. That could be Pop keeping the starting job open for Hill.

If TP is starting along with Manu, do you consider starting Hill over Jefferson. I lean toward no just because Jefferson needs Manu but Hill is the better player ... and that's a pretty big factor when actually trying to win games.

I think you start Jefferson and bring Hill of the bench but I think Hill is far more likely to be on the court at the end. The truth is that Hill can come in and spell Manu early and play well with Parker. He's much better without Manu or Parker on the court than Jefferson has shown he can be so I think he should take the minutes off the bench.

[MannyIsGod]

I'm really amazed that many people I consider the smarter posters on this board see it as an actual possibility to bring Parker off the bench. I know that we're all used to seeing Manu off the bench but Parker has never shown the lack of stamina that has plagued Manu at times throughout his career. That was the main reason he was brought off the bench.

I think you have to play an All NBA talent like Parker close to 40 minutes and that usually means starting. Especially in the playoffs. I love George Hill and this isn't a slight on him at all but I don't think the chemistry between RJ and Parker is bad at all much less bad enough to warrant changing the starting lineup.

[eric365]

For the playoff rotation, I would like to have for each half :

Hill / Manu / RJ / Dice / Duncan playing the first 4 minutes
Parker / Manu / RJ / Bonner / Duncan for the next 6 min
Parker / Hill / Bogans / Bonner / Duncan for the next 3 min
Parker / Hill / Bogans / Bonner / Blair for the next 3 min
Hill / Manu / RJ / Dice / Blair for the next 2 min
Parker / Manu / RJ / Dice / Duncan to finish the last 6 five minutes

=>
Parker : 36
Hill : 24
Manu : 36
RJ : 36
Bogans : 12
Dice : 24
Bonner : 24
Duncan : 38
Blair : 10

This way Manu/RJ/Hill play a lot together and we have also TP to play a good part of the game with Duncan and 3 shooters like last year

[BillMc]

With the NBA postseason just a few weeks away, it'd be nice if Pop and the Spurs were simply ironing the kinks out of the playoff rotation at this point. But with both point guards injured, Pop will need to be inventive to keep hope alive of not playing the Lakers in the first round.

That said, we've seen enough to get a decent idea of what to expect come playoff time. Tim Duncan in the starting five is obvious. From there, I believe that the next piece in the starting lineup has to be Manu Ginobili. Although he doesn't mind coming off the bench, there's no way Pop should mess with what's working so well. I'd go as far as to say the Spurs should continue to revolve around Ginobili for the rest of the season. If San Antonio is going to make a magical run, it'll be due to a certain Argentine guard staying scorching hot.

With Ginobili in the starting lineup, that means Richard Jefferson has to be in the starting lineup. Without Ginobili by his side, Jefferson has a tendency to play like a lost puppy. Ginobili is the team's playmaker on defense and Jefferson thrives finishing on the fast break -- it's a pairing that makes a lot of sense.

The bigman next to Duncan in the starting lineup should be Antonio McDyess. Truthfully, the reason McDyess starts doesn't have much to do with him. The reason is that both Matt Bonner and DeJuan Blair are better options off the bench. McDyess gets the starting nod by default ... with fingers crossed that he peaks at the right time.

The question on every Spurs fan's mind is what to do at point guard. If George Hill wouldn't have gotten injured, I would have advocated bringing Tony Parker off the bench. Now, with Hill potentially out even longer than Parker, this becomes much more of a dilemma.

As it stands, I think who will start at point guard will come down to which player returns to the court first. If Parker beats Hill back, Parker should start for the rest of the season. If Hill returns first, you have to run with him as the starter considering how well the current starting lineup has played as of late.

Honestly, I'm more comfortable with Parker coming off the bench. Not because I think Hill is better but rather because I think Hill could be lost in the shuffle if put in reserve role. The Spurs need Hill to play a prominent role and starting him is the best way to ensure he has the right frame of mind. On the other hand, Parker's self-confidence might be his biggest strength as a player, so I'd fully expect him to contribute no matter his role.

(For the record, I'm perfectly confident with Parker starting. I know some Spurs fans think that Parker will come back and steal Ginobili's thunder and mute Jefferson's mojo but I'm not worried about that. Parker has proven to be a good defender in the playoffs and his chemistry with Ginobli has been good this season -- even when everything else was amiss. I have no doubts that Parker will give Ginobili the touches he'd need to continue to thrive. It's not like Parker is a stranger to deferring to Ginobili when Ginobili is playing well. If anything, a case can be made for Parker to be placed in the starting lineup no matter what due to the fact that he's the best player on the team when it comes to running a pick-and-roll with Duncan.)

As far as the distribution of minutes in the playoffs, this is how I see it:

Tim Duncan - 38 minutes
In his playoff career, Duncan averages about 40 minutes per game in the playoffs. Pop will probably give him a few extra minuets of rest this year.

Manu Ginobili - 34 minutes
Though Ginobili has never averaged more than 33.6 minutes per game in a playoff run, this year is different. Ginobili being a superhero is mandatory with this group.

Tony Parker - 36 minutes
Even though Parker will still be getting into shape, I don't see him playing less than 36 minutes per game -- even if he's coming off the bench. He has a history of quickly regaining game-shape.

Richard Jefferson - 30 minutes
Jefferson was brought in to soak up minutes but with Ginobili and Hill needing minutes at the swingman positions, I expect Jefferson to play around 30 minutes per game in the playoffs.

George Hill - 32 minutes
Hill has grown to become a big part of this team. Parker returning won't stop him from playing a lot of minutes -- or at least it shouldn't.

Antonio McDyess - 20 minutes
Let's hope McDyess is playing more than just the beginning of each half. If he's playing fourth quarter minutes, that's usually a sign he's producing.

Matt Bonner - 20 minutes
Bonner is a bit of a wild card. He's actually been playing pretty darn well as of late. Unfortunately, bad memories of last year's playoffs have me nervous about his ability to handle 20 minutes of action.

Keith Bogans - 18 minutes
Pop will find a way to play the "centerpiece". If the Spurs go up against a team with star perimeter swingman, he may end up playing even more.

DeJuan Blair - 12 minutes
I think 12 minutes per game is about the ceiling for Blair in his first playoff run. Pop usually plays him while Duncan rests as of late and with Duncan resting less, that means more time on the pine for Blair.

Roger Mason, Jr. - Spot minutes
Mason will have some value in the playoffs. If Parker or Hill are slowed, Mason can buy minutes in the backcourt. He'll also be called upon to spread the court if the other shooters are misfiring.

Broken down into position, I see the playoff rotation looking like this:

PG: Parker 36/Hill 12
SG: Ginobili 28/Hill 20
SF: Jefferson 30/Bogans 12/Ginobili 6
PF: McDyess 20/Bonner 20/Bogans 6/Blair 2
C: Duncan 38/Blair 10

Great breakdrown!:toast:toast:toast

[NFGIII]

Nice write up!

I think that RJ should be attached to Manu's hip reagardless of what line up is put out on the floor. And get Blair paired up with Manu, too. Maybe not so many minutes but whatever minutes Pop is willing to give Blair he should play a large % of them with Manu. Manu makes both those players so much better than TP.

As for Hairston he will get some minutes if a defensive presence is needed. The rotation will be shorten considerably in the POs and hopefully that doesn't lead to some of our players - TD and Mnau - being a little gassed at times.

In order to see a magical run all the role players will have to step up and be consistent. That's a tall order for them but not impossible.

[stéphane]

As much as I respect your OP in this thread, I, as stated by many posters before me, highly doubt that Tony will come off the bench. He had time to rest his legs. He's fresher than anybody in this team and will play major minutes for this reason.
I think Manu's actual greatness will (and for good and obvious reasons) limit Tony's touch on offense and thus save some stamina. I expect him to play close to 40 mins.

Edit : How come you didn't give any minutes to RJ at the 4? You really expect no small ball from Pop? Seriously?

[Blackjack]

Because it's not about who's better, it's about getting the best results under the circumstance.

If all things are equal, it's a no-brainer to start Parker; I was even a proponent of it a few weeks ago. But they need all hands on deck and playing to their best potential, and if you throw Tony into that lineup and it upsets the chemistry and continuity that's eluded them just about all year ... it's not all that wise.

Now, Tony coming back this early and George's injury could very well change all that, one can only hope (because you do want Parker starting and the team thriving around him), but if RJ starts to fade into the background again and the team's thrown off kilter at all, you can't simply go with him because of his talent; especially when his game could conceivably thrive and even benefit the team most, short-term (in the way it would effect those around him), coming off the bench to start. (I'd start him in the second half once there's been a rhythm and confidence built so that you wouldn't hinder his minutes too much.)

Like timvp said, it's not a slight to Tony or some kind of admission that George is a better player, it's simply making due with the circumstance and providing the best opportunity for the team to thrive cohesively.

[HarlemHeat37]

If TP has his speed back, Manu's ability to space the floor will help tremendously, which is something that we didn't have earlier in the season..a lot of people seem to ignore this..if Parker is healthy, he can still penetrate at will..earlier in the season when he was doing this(although he obviously wasn't healthy), the Spurs often had spacing problems due to having inconsistent shooters on the perimeter..

With Manu shooting like he has been, teams will have to respect it when TP and Timmy are on the floor with him, which opens things up for everybody..

[spursfaninla]

I would like to see Blair getting all of the minutes that TIMVP gave to Bogans at PF.

Bogans does not make sense at PF, unless the other team is undersized or it is lamar odom/dirk type player who uses their speed.

Blair will make mistakes but he will also get easy inside baskets and will help with rebounding much better than bogans.

[Man In Black]

You know, since I DVR and then transfer to DVD, I watch the games a 2nd time. For that ugly New Jersey loss, I had to listen to Mike Fratello and the question was asked, What happens when Parker comes back? The Czar indicated, in his opinion, that Tony Parker is ball-dominant,I don't agree though there are times when the offense is simply Tim & Tony working pick & roll to death. It works, we all know it does, but I like balance and I like flow and this team has it right now. I'm a huge TP fan and I'm hoping that when he comes back, that balance and flow continue and then with GHill coming off the bench, that it's not just about playing well enough to not lose a lead but it's about really becoming a 2nd wave of attack. Think CP3 and DCollison or to a lesser extent, Russell Westbrook and Eric Maynor. Attacking Guards with speed and finishing ability can kill in the playoffs.

[Galileo]

Broken down into position, I see the playoff rotation looking like this:

PG: Parker 36/Hill 12
SG: Ginobili 28/Hill 20
SF: Jefferson 30/Bogans 12/Ginobili 6
PF: McDyess 20/Bonner 20/Bogans 6/Blair 2
C: Duncan 38/Blair 10

This is excellent analysis. Please, someone, show it to Pop.

[DesignatedT]

seems about right... The more Interesting question is who closes the game.......

[panic giraffe]

honestly, shouldn't this change with opponent?

there are some guys that are a complete mis-match for some teams and guys that thrive against certain opponents that suck otherwise.

[the crimson blur]

This entire season basically boils down to Tony Parker and George Hill's health. Its hard to tell the playoff rotations without knowing that first. If they are ready and able, I don't think there is a team we can't beat.

Boy, that skinny kid from IUPUI sure has become important...its crazy to think how his responsibility has increased throughout his career. Not that long ago we were asking him to just get the team donuts and stay out of the way. Now we want him to guard the opponent's best perimeter player, run the offense, and score 15-20 a night.

[TD 21]

Can't see Parker-Ginobili-Jefferson all starting together. Pop will want a defensive presence in the starting lineup, which is why Hill will eventually find his way back in and Ginobili back out. I'd have said Parker to start, but with him being back sooner than expected and Hill now being out, he's not going to just pull his usual starting PG, just when he's likely to be regaining his rhythm. If the Spurs struggle in these last few games or go down 0-2 in a series, look for Ginobili to be moved back to the bench.

Blair will likely be used in the 1st half for 4-6 minutes, to give the Spurs inside scoring/rebounding when Duncan rests. If he doesn't look out of place, he could get a similar second half rotation, if he does look out of place, the Spurs will go to strictly a three big rotation, by increasing McDyess's second half minutes. If the Spurs draw the Lakers, they may end up going strictly to a three big rotation, particularly if Bynum is out.

Hairston could see spot minutes (rather, seconds), coming in for end of quarter defensive stands.

Overall, it's obvious the nine that will be in the rotation. If Blair struggles and the Spurs backs are against the wall or close to it in a series, I wouldn't be surprised to see Pop go down to eight.

For the most part, at this point things are cut and dried. Out of the three guards, it's not that big of a deal whichever doesn't start because 5-7 minutes in to the half, they'll be subbing in anyway and all three are quality players that offer some of the same things. It's not like a guy like Bogans will start and play the first 10 minutes, which could drastically alter things.

[HarlemHeat37]

There could be SOME differences depending on the matchup, I don't think it will be a significant difference..Bogans probably could play a little more vs. the Lakers to guard Kobe and Pop might occasionally go with Hairston in that matchup like he did in the last game vs. LA if Kobe gets too hot and the Spurs need to give him a different look..everything else would probably stay the same..

I don't think there would be any difference vs. Dallas..the bigs would stay the same..I could see Pop going with small ball(RJ) against Dirk at certain times, but hopefully not too much..I could see more Hill and Parker together vs. the Mavs..

The Lakers matchup is probably the only realistic matchup that could change the rotation IMO, and that would just be Bogans playing more..

[Old School 44]

I'm really amazed that many people I consider the smarter posters on this board see it as an actual possibility to bring Parker off the bench. I know that we're all used to seeing Manu off the bench but Parker has never shown the lack of stamina that has plagued Manu at times throughout his career. That was the main reason he was brought off the bench.

I think you have to play an All NBA talent like Parker close to 40 minutes and that usually means starting. Especially in the playoffs. I love George Hill and this isn't a slight on him at all but I don't think the chemistry between RJ and Parker is bad at all much less bad enough to warrant changing the starting lineup.

Huh? Manu went to the bench, because we had no bench.

[TD 21]

Yeah, that's true, but I just don't think it matter that much which one of the three doesn't start. People are getting so worked up over that, but they're all quality players, none are that much of a liability in any specific area (Parker's legs will be fresh and come playoff time, I expect him to defend adequately) and Pop begins subbing 5-7 minutes into each half.

That's what's great about Hill's emergence (plus the overall improved depth of the team, particularly offensively), the Spurs no longer have to attempt to weather the storm early, so that when Ginobili enters 5-6 minutes in he doesn't have to wear himself out digging them out of a hole. This team has enough offense now, that, when healthy, all three of these guys should be able to get sufficient rest, even during the playoffs. They'll probably all play 32-36 mpg and no one guy should have to over exert himself while playing.

Duncan is the only player I'm somewhat worried about wearing down should this team go on a run because defensively, the Spurs can't go too long without him on the court against most teams. But there is no back to backs in the playoffs, plenty of two day breaks in the first round usually and he won't have to carry the team offensively, so hopefully he'll be able to play around 38 mpg effectively.

[EricB]

Huh? Manu went to the bench, because we had no bench.


Partly but the big reason was to limit his minutes and keep him fresh for the fourth quarter. With Parker back and if he can take on some of the load, that helps freshen manu even more.

[HarlemHeat37]

I find it interesting that this Spurs team finally has a guy that could potentially play the Manu role off the bench in George Hill..it's the first time in a LONG time..it'll be interesting to see how Pop utilizes it..

[TheBigFundamental]

Parker-35
Ginobili 34
Jefferson-32
McDyess-30
Duncan 35

Hill-30
Bonner 17
Blair 14
Bogans 13

[MannyIsGod]

Because it's not about who's better, it's about getting the best results under the circumstance.

If all things are equal, it's a no-brainer to start Parker; I was even a proponent of it a few weeks ago. But they need all hands on deck and playing to their best potential, and if you throw Tony into that lineup and it upsets the chemistry and continuity that's eluded them just about all year ... it's not all that wise.

Now, Tony coming back this early and George's injury could very well change all that, one can only hope (because you do want Parker starting and the team thriving around him), but if RJ starts to fade into the background again and the team's thrown off kilter at all, you can't simply go with him because of his talent; especially when his game could conceivably thrive and even benefit the team most, short-term (in the way it would effect those around him), coming off the bench to start. (I'd start him in the second half once there's been a rhythm and confidence built so that you wouldn't hinder his minutes too much.)

Like timvp said, it's not a slight to Tony or some kind of admission that George is a better player, it's simply making due with the circumstance and providing the best opportunity for the team to thrive cohesively.

Sure but unless you believe that the Spurs have played better BECAUSE Parker is out of the lineup then I don't know where the idea to bring him off the bench grows any legs.

There is something to be said for a sum greater than parts scenario many of you are painting here but it rarely involves a player who actually facilitates an offense well the way Tony Parker does. It usually involves inefficient players who detract from their teams while putting up good numbers. This is not Tony Parker.

Putting Tony on the bench automatically limits the amount of minutes he's likely to play. I think that is a serious mistake any way you look at it. Tony is a player that changes the game in the Spurs favor every time he's on the court (IF healthy) and playing him anything less than the maximum possible minutes is simply a mistake. Neither George Hill nor Richard Jefferson come close to impacting the game in the manner that Tony Parker does.

George Hill getting less touches isn't a bad thing because of the fact that Parker is much more efficient. Thats not a knock on George thats simply the fact of the matter.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

Nice analysis by all. :tu

I'd like to see Hairston involved, but Pop's Benophobia makes that improbable.

As for Hill/Parker, you absolutely have to keep Hill as the starter if he can get back on the court within a week because the starters' chemistry has been superb. Also, Parker is more likely to thrive against opposition benches at this point given that he's probably rusty and may well still be affected by the fasciitis curse.

Interesting times.

[mogrovejo]

It only matters versus the Lakers.

1. Parker becomes a liability versus the Lakers. He is bothered by their size inside. He hasn't taken advantage of Fisher in the last 8 games or so.

2. On the other hand, the Ginobili+Bogans+Jefferson line-up gives the Lakers a lot of trouble.

- the Lakers perimeter players rely a lot on post ups/jump-shots these days. The size and length of that backcourt gives them problems as it takes away their chances of creating mismatches. The Spurs can switch at will and rotate on the ball reversal much easier.

- more importantly, Ginobili can tear the Lakers apart if he's the primary ball-handler and playmaker due to their incompetent pick'n'roll defence. Manu is a much more dangerous ballscreen player than Parker. The Lakers have no answer to good pick'n'roll players.

3. So, the conclusion is obvious: the Spurs should limit Parker's minutes versus the Lakers. Ginobili should be the PG; Hill and Bogans are better fits as off-guards. San Antonio can beat the Lakers with Parker but they would have a much easier task (an easy task?) without Parker.

Vs. other teams it's irrelevant. Btw, McDyess' contributions are still very underrated by Spurs fans.

[timvp]

It only matters versus the Lakers.

1. Parker becomes a liability versus the Lakers. He is bothered by their size inside. He hasn't taken advantage of Fisher in the last 8 games or so.

Really? Last five games against Fisher, Parker is averaging 21.2 points, 6.4 assists and shooting 54.2% from the field. On the other end, Parker has historically had a ton of success limiting Fisher.

[anakha]

It only matters versus the Lakers.

1. Parker becomes a liability versus the Lakers. He is bothered by their size inside. He hasn't taken advantage of Fisher in the last 8 games or so.


The stats don't back this up.

Checking Parker's last 8 games against the Lakers (which goes back to the '08 WCF) on basketballreference, he's averaged 21 and 6 on 54% shooting.

Unless your standards for Parker are incredibly high, you're way off base here.

E: Goddammit, timvp! http://forums.nexuswar.com/images/smiles/argh.gif :lol

[mogrovejo]

Do you guys know what are Parker normal standards and how much other pgs improve from their standards vs. Fisher? I'm fairly sure the stats back me up.

[anakha]

Do you guys know what are Parker normal standards and how much other pgs improve from their standards vs. Fisher? I'm fairly sure the stats back me up.

Burden of proof is on you now.

[MannyIsGod]

Do you guys know what are Parker normal standards and how much other pgs improve from their standards vs. Fisher? I'm fairly sure the stats back me up.

This totally ignores the fact that if Parker has been a liability at all it is due to the fact that the Lakers pack the lane with four players. At that point it becomes the responsibility of the shooters to make the open shots. The problem with the Lakers matchup has never been and never will be Parker but will be how the Spurs outside shooters react against the Laker's defense on Parker.

[ShoogarBear]

I gave this a lot of thought too and I came to the realization that it's almost impossible for Parker to play 36 mins per game if he comes off the bench.

If he comes off the bench, he will miss at least the first 6 minutes of the first and third quarter, that's 12 minutes so for him to play 36 mins per game coming off the bench he will have to play 18 minutes per half in a row without rest, I don't know if that's the smartest way to manage a guy's minutes. If Pop wants to play Tony that amount of minutes (which I think he obviously wants) he has almost no other choice than to start him. Other possibility is to start him on the second half but I don't see the point of starting him in just one half.

Yep, the major issue all along is simple math. Assuming his foot is okay, Parker is the only one of the Big 3 whose minutes don't have to be protected. As such, it was always easier to distribute the minutes with Parker starting (and in fact, almost impossible to do it otherwise).

[timvp]

Do you guys know what are Parker normal standards and how much other pgs improve from their standards vs. Fisher? I'm fairly sure the stats back me up.

This year vs. Fisher
CP3: 15 ppg, 11 apg, 42% fg
DWill: 17.3 ppg, 9.8 apg, 44.2% fg
Nash: 13.8 ppg, 9 apg, 47.6% fg

I looked at a few others and can't find a PG who has lit up Fisher this season. You got any?

[Cant_Be_Faded]

I'm really amazed that many people I consider the smarter posters on this board see it as an actual possibility to bring Parker off the bench. I know that we're all used to seeing Manu off the bench but Parker has never shown the lack of stamina that has plagued Manu at times throughout his career. That was the main reason he was brought off the bench.

I think you have to play an All NBA talent like Parker close to 40 minutes and that usually means starting. Especially in the playoffs. I love George Hill and this isn't a slight on him at all but I don't think the chemistry between RJ and Parker is bad at all much less bad enough to warrant changing the starting lineup.

I think the problem is that most of us seem to think there is a alot of (circumstatntial I will admit) evidence that RJ seems to be The Invisible Man when he and Parker share alot of minutes on the court together.

[MannyIsGod]

In the Spurs 2 wins this season vs the Lakers they are 14-34 (.412) from the 3 point line.

In the Spurs 2 losses they are 12-39 (.308) from the 3 point line.

[MannyIsGod]

I think the problem is that most of us seem to think there is a alot of (circumstatntial I will admit) evidence that RJ seems to be The Invisible Man when he and Parker share alot of minutes on the court together.

Even if thats the case then people are really overrating what RJ is currently bringing to this team. He's not defending better than George Hill, he's not shooting as well as George Hill, and he's certainly not creating as well as Hill. Limiting Parker's minutes for the 3 best swingman on this team is pretty damn asinine.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

But RJ seems to be rebounding at a pretty decent clip here lately. It would be interesting to check out the numbers on that one.

If we play parker and hill together we might suffer in that aspect.

[MannyIsGod]

But RJ seems to be rebounding at a pretty decent clip here lately. It would be interesting to check out the numbers on that one.

If we play parker and hill together we might suffer in that aspect.

I compared them a few games back and RJ had a slim lead. At most RJ nets you 2 or so more boards per game than Hill. RJ isn't a great rebounder and counting on him to change the game in that manner is something I don't understand.

Placing the blame of RJ's struggles on Parker is just weird to me. I do think that RJ has benefited from playing with Manu and there is no doubt to that, but the biggest change in RJ's game has been a decision to play a much more assertive and aggressive style. I've always thought the problems with RJ stemmed more from his own decisions than who was feeding him the ball. (Its not like Manu is constantly setting up RJ on lobs or easy buckets - he's just being more aggressive).

In any event, I don't want to sound like I want to limit RJ's minutes. I just don't see a reason to limit Parker's minutes based upon RJ's improvements.

[ShoogarBear]

I would float the idea that Pop should semi-shut Manu and Tim down the rest of the regular season. The logic is:

1. The Spurs are not, say, the Hawks. The aren't looking for a good deep playoff run to build for the future. Their sole goal is to win Duncan another ring.

2. For the first time this season, there is feeling of a (still small) chance of actually pulling it off.

3. The only thing that will definitely move the chances back to impossible is injury. The reward for getting a 4th or 5th seed is not worth the risk of injury.

4. The priorities should be, in order:
a. Keeping Manu and Duncan healthy
b. Getting Parker back into synch
c. Getting everyone (esp RJ) enough just enough playing time to keep the gears oiled

The benefits of doing 4a-c is that you would also get some good reps from Blair, Hairston, and yes even Mason, which might actually come in handy in 1-2 crucial moments in the postseason.

The risk, of course, is that the Spurs would go into the playoffs rusty and having lost some momentum. But at this point I'd prefer to have them come in healthy, KNOWING what they are capable of, and maybe a little cold, as opposed to the worse-case scenario of pushing Manu 35+ minutes to eke out 1-2 more regular season wins and having him get hurt.

[MannyIsGod]

I don't agree with you Shoog. I think its important for this team to believe in itself and I believe that it needs to continue to build upon the growth its had. You can't prevent injuries by sitting players. Something could happen to Manu one minute into a game.

I think the games are important and I think they have to try to win as many as possible.

[DPG21920]

Shoog, the thing is that this team, more than any other Spurs team seems to need the "momentum". They are not as mentally strong and killing the momentum I think is a bad idea.

I think you have to keep letting them run. Limit the minutes, but keep winning.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

both arguments have valid points


but i do think that during this and last regular season we have seen the results of Pop trying somewhat of an approach that resembles ShoogarBear's.

hard to tell the results in a perfect world because of the shit injuries

[MannyIsGod]

Yeah I don't agree with Shoog but I can definitely see the merits of wanting that. Its not easy to say which line of thinking is correct or if either will even matter. We have to pray for health for this team because without it everything else is irrelevent.

[ShoogarBear]

Eh, I just don't like the four games in five nights. Yes, it could happen at any time, but that's just a setup for it. I would play the hell out of Blair and Hairston during that stretch.

[DPG21920]

I am walking on egg shells right now. I love the way the team is playing. For the first time all year, I feel confident. Not that the Spurs are the favorites, but they are starting to get the respect back.

I just want them to make it to the playoffs healthy.

[DPG21920]

Yeah, it is a tough stretch, but I think you go into it playing with the intention to play the guys for the win. If you can get leads and play well, then you find the rest.

[timvp]

I would float the idea that Pop should semi-shut Manu and Tim down the rest of the regular season. The logic is:

1. The Spurs are not, say, the Hawks. The aren't looking for a good deep playoff run to build for the future. Their sole goal is to win Duncan another ring.

2. For the first time this season, there is feeling of a (still small) chance of actually pulling it off.

3. The only thing that will definitely move the chances back to impossible is injury. The reward for getting a 4th or 5th seed is not worth the risk of injury.

4. The priorities should be, in order:
a. Keeping Manu and Duncan healthy
b. Getting Parker back into synch
c. Getting everyone (esp RJ) enough just enough playing time to keep the gears oiled

The benefits of doing 4a-c is that you would also get some good reps from Blair, Hairston, and yes even Mason, which might actually come in handy in 1-2 crucial moments in the postseason.

The risk, of course, is that the Spurs would go into the playoffs rusty and having lost some momentum. But at this point I'd prefer to have them come in healthy, KNOWING what they are capable of, and maybe a little cold, as opposed to the worse-case scenario of pushing Manu 35+ minutes to eke out 1-2 more regular season wins and having him get hurt.

What you didn't mention is that if the Spurs shut it down, they guarantee a matchup against the Lakers in the first round. That is enough for me to want the Spurs to play out the string. The Lakers are still head and shoulders above the rest of the West. Avoiding them as long as possible is worth the risk.

You never know, they might get Mav07'ed.

[ShoogarBear]

What you didn't mention is that if the Spurs shut it down, they guarantee a matchup against the Lakers in the first round. That is enough for me to want the Spurs to play out the string. The Lakers are still head and shoulders above the rest of the West. Avoiding them as long as possible is worth the risk.

You never know, they might get Mav07'ed.

If the Lakers are going to lose in the West, I'm beginning to believe it will mostly likely be in the first round when they're still trying to get their act together. Maybe you don't want to avoid them as long as possible, because if they make it to the WCF, THEN they will probably be impossible to beat.

So, the Spurs can hope they get Warriored, but unlike 07 there isn't one specific team that is their Achilles Heel. Except the Hornets, I guess.

[diego]

shoogarbear has a nice plan, too bad pop didnt do that from day 1, would he change now? i dont believe in light switches. they have to build that intensity before game 1. its possible to rest manu and duncan without giving up the game, but it carries risks that go beyond plain seeding. FTL

[Fabbs]

Matt Bonner - 20 minutes
Bonner is a bit of a wild card. He's actually been playing pretty darn well as of late. Unfortunately, bad memories of last year's playoffs have me nervous about his ability to handle 20 minutes of action.

Keith Bogans - 18 minutes
Pop will find a way to play the "centerpiece". If the Spurs go up against a team with star perimeter swingman, he may end up playing even more.

DeJuan Blair - 12 minutes
I think 12 minutes per game is about the ceiling for Blair in his first playoff run. Pop usually plays him while Duncan rests as of late and with Duncan resting less, that means more time on the pine for Blair.
Fail.
a. Why should Bonner get more minutes then Blair when Bonner is sucking, which is a lot? Blair seldom sucks. If Bonner is sinking treys, great. If not, he's taking up space on O and D.
b. Dumbassovich is the one who insists on Blair and Duncan playing seperately. Why? Trying to make Blair be a 6'7" Wes Unseld center. Its b.s., Duncan and Blair play well together and when playoff intensity builds and the paint gets tough, i do not look for YMCA Bonner to excell. Tim needs help in the paint. Pop has tried his pussy Phoenix Suns 3 pt chucking lineups and they fail.

For that matter Dick Jefferson can have 30 minutes IF he is not pouting and instead is giving effort. If not, get him off the court.

[EricB]

If the Lakers are going to lose in the West, I'm beginning to believe it will mostly likely be in the first round when they're still trying to get their act together. Maybe you don't want to avoid them as long as possible, because if they make it to the WCF, THEN they will probably be impossible to beat.

So, the Spurs can hope they get Warriored, but unlike 07 there isn't one specific team that is their Achilles Heel. Except the Hornets, I guess.


Portland for whatever reason matches up well with them and plays the well.

Camby and Aldridge together give Gasol and Bynum/Odom fits.

Roy is a tough matchup and for some reason they match up well.


Who knows.

I think second round, after a long 7 full game series vs the Blazers could get the Spurs by the Lakers.

[polandprzem]

TP
Bogans
RJ
Tim
McD

gino
blair
hairston
Matt


That are our main guys now, no matter the matchups.

I would like to see hairson more and let Mase go. Right now he is horrible

[EricB]

I think you gotta start the best 5 ala 2005.

Parker
Gino
RJ
Dice
Duncan

then come with Hill, Bogans, Blair, Bonner, foul trouble either Temple or Hairston.

I think Bogans in small doses is good off the bench.


Duncan high 30s low 30s for Dice Blair and Bonner hack up whats left, if Bonner is choking and bricking yank him.

Parker Gino and Hill all mid low 30s. Parker maybe high 30s depending on stamina.

[jiggy_55]

PG: Parker 36/Hill 12
SG: Ginobili 28/Hill 20
SF: Jefferson 30/Bogans 12/Ginobili 6
PF: McDyess 20/Bonner 20/Bogans 6/Blair 2
C: Duncan 38/Blair 10

Great analysis and writeup timvp. However, I disagree, the playoff rotation will be much shorter than this!

Duncan, Parker, Ginobili will all get 36+ minutes for sure. Jefferson and Hill will surely get their 32+ minutes a game.

Just look at RJ's last 5 games: 38, 34, 39, 38, 34. There's no way he plays less than 34 I would have to believe. He is crucial, no matter what you guys believe. Glad to have him playing his best basketball of the season now. Hill, if he heals quickly and is fine, will surely also get big minutes backing up parker and at the 2.

McDyess' minutes should be increased as well, unless of a matchup issue. I fully expect a minimum of 26 minutes for Antonio (with Bonner getting most of the remaining minutes).

As for Bogans, Pop cuts his rotations much shorter in the playoffs. I just don't see him picking up big minutes in most series, UNLESS of course the Spurs are playing against a top scorer (that's Kobe or Melo as possible options in the first round), I can't see Bogans getting too many minutes. In the case of us meeting any of the other possible teams (DAL, UTA, PHO) Bogans will not see much playing time I suspect.

[Waps1980]

For the playoff rotation, I would like to have for each half :

Hill / Manu / RJ / Dice / Duncan playing the first 4 minutes
Parker / Manu / RJ / Bonner / Duncan for the next 6 min
Parker / Hill / Bogans / Bonner / Duncan for the next 3 min
Parker / Hill / Bogans / Bonner / Blair for the next 3 min
Hill / Manu / RJ / Dice / Blair for the next 2 min
Parker / Manu / RJ / Dice / Duncan to finish the last 6 five minutes

=>
Parker : 36
Hill : 24
Manu : 36
RJ : 36
Bogans : 12
Dice : 24
Bonner : 24
Duncan : 38
Blair : 10

This way Manu/RJ/Hill play a lot together and we have also TP to play a good part of the game with Duncan and 3 shooters like last year

This is very similar to what I was thinking.
Only downside is we lack some 3 point power at the end, only Manu & RJ(sort of), Would think if we were behind Bonner will replace Dice.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

If the Lakers are going to lose in the West, I'm beginning to believe it will mostly likely be in the first round when they're still trying to get their act together. Maybe you don't want to avoid them as long as possible, because if they make it to the WCF, THEN they will probably be impossible to beat.

So, the Spurs can hope they get Warriored, but unlike 07 there isn't one specific team that is their Achilles Heel. Except the Hornets, I guess.

Good debate on this topic. :tu

I think that first paragraph makes a lot of sense, but there is another thing you aren't considering - the player's reactions to sitting. The last thing a guy like Manu wants to do right now is sit - he is positively humming right now! The last thing he wants to do is sit around. Yes, injury is always a risk in basketball, but that doesn't mean you wrap the players in cotton wool.

I think you try to manage their minutes and keep them as fresh as possible, but they have to play if they're fit.

[Josepatches_]

Nice analysis by all. :tu


As for Hill/Parker, you absolutely have to keep Hill as the starter if he can get back on the court within a week because the starters' chemistry has been superb. Also, Parker is more likely to thrive against opposition benches at this point given that he's probably rusty and may well still be affected by the fasciitis curse.



This.


It's not about who is better.The team was playing great so it could be a mistake to change it.


And Parker was out of gas in the 4th a lot of games this season.From the bench he will end the games at 100%.If TP is near unstoppable against starters he will score everytime he wants against the bench.
Tony is better scorer than Manu so if Manu played the role of 6th man really good all these years i'm sure Tony could do it even better.


To end the games knowing Pop we'll see small ball too many times.
Parker,Hill,Manu,Jefferson and Duncan. I'm sure.

[jjktkk]

Fail.
a. Why should Bonner get more minutes then Blair when Bonner is sucking, which is a lot? Blair seldom sucks. If Bonner is sinking treys, great. If not, he's taking up space on O and D.
b. Dumbassovich is the one who insists on Blair and Duncan playing seperately. Why? Trying to make Blair be a 6'7" Wes Unseld center. Its b.s., Duncan and Blair play well together and when playoff intensity builds and the paint gets tough, i do not look for YMCA Bonner to excell. Tim needs help in the paint. Pop has tried his pussy Phoenix Suns 3 pt chucking lineups and they fail.

For that matter Dick Jefferson can have 30 minutes IF he is not pouting and instead is giving effort. If not, get him off the court.

Fail part2. Bonner and Blair are completely different players, as far as skill sets. King Pop has a nice rotation going right now. Plus Blair, while good, has hit the rookie wall as of late. Plus with Blair being a rookie, Pop will limit his minutes in the playoffs. I can see Pop going with the hot hand in playoffs with either McDyess or Bonner, with Blair getting less minutes, because of his inexpierence.

[Fabbs]

Fail part2. Bonner and Blair are completely different players, as far as skill sets. King Pop has a nice rotation going right now. Plus Blair, while good, has hit the rookie wall as of late. Plus with Blair being a rookie, Pop will limit his minutes in the playoffs. I can see Pop going with the hot hand in playoffs with either McDyess or Bonner, with Blair getting less minutes, because of his inexpierence.
Yeah Blair has really hit a rookie wall lately.
11 pts 11 boards in only 17 min vs NJ March 29th
10 pts 09 boards in only 17 min vs Hou March 31st
6-6 last night vs Kings with 4 boards in only 19 minutes.
Last 5 games Blair is 17-25 on field goals, albeit many of them chippies.

Matty Bonner meanwhile?
15-42 including 6-22 on treys. :lol
Rebounding? Don't even ask.

Fail on what i posted? Give it up kid.

Blair getting less minutes then Bonner because as you can be quoted "because of his inexpierence." Reminds me of a Ross Perot vs Bush Scammer The Older Version.
Bush spin: "You have no experience with the national economy"
Perot: "Correct, i have no experience running up a trillion dollar debt."

Yes, true, Blair has no experience shooting 29% and playing weak D with no rebounds in a 1-4 buttkicking at the hands of Dallas.