Proof "Obamanomics" is working

[Nbadan]

First, I know someone will point to the current high unemployment rate to argue that the economy has not begun to turn around. However, unemployment is never a leading economic indicator. The employment rate typically improves on the tail end of the recovery from a recession, and the economy has reversed itself and begun to grow under President Obama:


http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/quarterly_gdp_growth_during_the_obama_administrati on.png

The best you can hope for is for the unemployment rate to start coming down as the economy begins to improve, though this has NOT happened in the last two recessions where unemployment lagged the overall improvement in the economy:


http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/Rb2BTplgClI/AAAAAAAAAP0/DIl6rD5qHq4/s400/unemployment.png

Indeed, this trend appears to be holding true as the unemployment picture has dramatically reversed itself and improved under President Obama following the carnage of the Bush administration:


http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/assets_c/2010/04/Unemployment%20Chart310-thumb-454x321-17963.jpg

The wing-nuts narrative that the sky-is-falling is just not supported by the latest economic numbers, if anything the numbers point that we are on the brink of the greatest expansion since the Clinton Administration, and if the trends continue, unemployment figures, one of the last indicators of a economic boom, could improve leading to Nov. 2010, good for democratic legislators, and 2012, good for Obama...


A Bloomberg national poll in March found that Americans, by an almost 2-to-1 margin, believe the economy has gotten worse rather than better during the past year. The Market begs to differ. While President Obama's overall job approval rating has fallen to a new low of 44 percent, according to a CBS News Poll, down five points from late March, the judgment of the financial indexes has turned resoundingly positive. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index is up more than 74 percent from its recessionary low in March 2009. Corporate bonds have been rallying for a year. Commodity prices have surged. International currency markets have been bullish on the dollar for months, raising it by almost 10 percent since Nov. 25 against a basket of six major currencies. Housing prices have stabilized. Mortgage rates are low. "We've had a phenomenal run in asset classes across the board," says Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist for Miller Tabak + Co., an institutional trading firm in New York. "If Obama was a Republican, we would hear a never-ending drumbeat of news stories about markets voting in favor of the President."

Little more than a year ago, financial markets were in turmoil, major auto companies were on the verge of collapse and economists such as Paul Krugman were worried about the U.S. slumbering through a Japan-like Lost Decade. While no one would claim that all the pain is past or the danger gone, the economy is growing again, jumping to a 5.6 percent annualized growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2009 as businesses finally restocked their inventories. The consensus view now calls for 3 percent growth this year, significantly higher than the 2.1 percent estimate for 2010 that economists surveyed by Bloomberg News saw coming when Obama first moved into the Oval Office.

The U.S. manufacturing sector has expanded for eight straight months, the Business Roundtable's measure of CEO optimism reached its highest level since early 2006, and in March the economy added 162,000 jobs — more than it had during any month in the past three years. "There is more business confidence out there," says Boeing CEO Jim McNerney. "This Administration deserves significant credit."

MSNBC (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/36322393/ns/business-businessweekcom)

Did anyone ever try to measure how well Bush's tax cut and deregulation policies went? because my own humble economic analysis shows that we ended his presidency a little fucked up...

[Nbadan]

Of course your not gonna hear about this from the M$M, they would rater continue to the cater to the disingenuous GOP lie that the sky-is-falling...if fact with magic negro in charge many 'conservatives' would like to do anything they can to steer the U.S. toward a future of doom-and-gloom, that's why they want a war with Iran, even though Iran does not have the technology, nor the uranium to build one nuclear weapon....

[EmptyMan]

GOP lie that the sky is falling lololololololol

Obama pushed that line pretty hard braaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah. Then he told us the world was saved once he got his goodies through.

[Winehole23]

Way overstated, brih.

Between the delusional fantasy that fiasco has been definitively avoided and the insane lie that that Obama is Mussolini and Stalin rolled up into one, the reasonable middle is ruthlessly excluded to the common detriment.

[EVAY]

Way overstated, brih.

Between the delusional fantasy that fiasco has been definitively avoided and the insane lie that that Obama is Mussolini and Stalin rolled up into one, the reasonable middle is ruthlessly excluded to the common detriment.

Thank you, WH. I'm just tired of the arguments. They are senseless.

[angrydude]

see, your problem is, its easy to tell you aren't interested in a fair minded discussion yourself when you cite irrelevant crap like this and expect it to be treated like its unbiased fact.

and if you don't already understand why everything in your post does absolutely nothing to prove obamonomics is working then there really is no point in discussing it with you.

there are so many asterisks and and question marks related to the data in the very short time period that it is impossible to use it to support the broad generalizations you've just indulged in.

I realize its unfortunate that a lot of republicans (ppl like Sean Hannity) are just using the economy as a stick to beat Obama with even though they don't know what they are talking about. However, that doesn't mean they're conclusions are wrong. I realize that if Bush had been in office he'd have done the exact same things as Obama. Bush is really to blame for this economic catastrophe, though the ball got rolling a long time before he came around.

What we are witnessing is nothing short of the natural result of our treatment of the economy. the longer we resist it, the longer it will go on. It will not end until there is a fundamental reordering of the economy.

The economy right now is being held together with duct tape, smoke, mirrors and above all a printing press. If it appears to have temporarily gets "better", its only because it set up an even bigger catastrophe down the road.

[spursncowboys]

Can someone define Obamanomics? I don't think he has shown much leadership and instead will just accept whatever comes out of the congress, while dems are in office.

[jack sommerset]

Trillions of dollars more in debt since Obama took office (Yes unemployment is higher than the great one predicted) and some asshole is trying to say he is doing a good job. Priceless!

[TeyshaBlue]

Another classic nbadan fail. :lmao

[Nbadan]

:sleep

The sky is falling! The Sky is falling!

[jack sommerset]

:sleep

The sky is falling! The Sky is falling!

:sleep

Obama.....Pass this Stimulus bill NOW or unemployment will go over 8 percent!!!!!!!!

The sky is falling! The sky is falling!

[Nbadan]

Obama is a socialist!

The Sky is Falling! The Sky is Falling!

:sleepy

[jack sommerset]

Obama is a socialist!

Tell us something we don't know.

[TeyshaBlue]

:sleep

The sky is falling! The Sky is falling!

No, I think it's:

"Nbadan fail! Nbadan fail!" :rolleyes

[coyotes_geek]

Can someone define Obamanomics?

Obamanomics = Dubyanomics. Just hand out a bunch of free money, rack up huge defecits and cross your fingers.

[boutons_deux]

TARP was initiated by dubya/Repugs/Paulsen.

The stimulus was all Magic Negro. It saved a couple M jobs, but there were 8M jobs lost in a period when 3M jobs should have been created, so an 11M job hole.

What would have been McLiar/pitbull bitch's mgmt of the Banksters' Great Depression?

[DarrinS]

TARP was initiated by dubya/Repugs/Paulsen.

The stimulus was all Magic Negro. It saved a couple M jobs, but there were 8M jobs lost in a period when 3M jobs should have been created, so an 11M job hole.

What would have been McLiar/pitbull bitch's mgmt of the Banksters' Great Depression?

:lmao

[coyotes_geek]

TARP was initiated by dubya/Repugs/Paulsen.

The stimulus was all Magic Negro. It saved a couple M jobs, but there were 8M jobs lost in a period when 3M jobs should have been created, so an 11M job hole.

What would have been McLiar/pitbull bitch's mgmt of the Banksters' Great Depression?

As usual, boutons won't let things like facts get in the way of a good rant. Tarp was the creation of dubya, paulson and congressional democrats. Go look at the votes. It was the republicans who shot it down the first time before it got porked up enough to pass. Even Obama, who was out on the campaign trail at the time, was making a big deal about how involved he was in the tarp process.

http://www.opencongress.org/vote/2009/h/26

[boutons_deux]

"was the republicans who shot it down the first time before it got porked up enough to pass"

The Repugs voted against TARP not because they were against it, but because they knew it was going to pass and they could beat the Dems with it. Their obstructionism was purely tactical/political, not principled.

Had McLiar/pitbull bitch won and the Repugs regained control of Congress, do any of you duped shills really think the Repugs would have cancelled TARP?

[coyotes_geek]

And right on cue, boutons reconstructs his arguement upon being confronted with the facts.

"the republicans did it"

"okay, so they didn't do it but they were just pretending"

:lol

[TeyshaBlue]

And right on cue, boutons reconstructs his arguement upon being confronted with the facts.

"the republicans did it"

"okay, so they didn't do it but they were just pretending"

:lol

I swear, I think he's a troll program left running on a 486 machine..forgotten in a basement of the UT computer science dept.:rollin

[boutons_deux]

The outgoing Repug EXEC/TREASURY that created TARP is different from the rump Repug Congress who voted against TARP.

How much obstructionist howling did we hear from the Repug Congress when Paulsen exposed his 3-pager?

Bitches, meet slap.

[TeyshaBlue]

Bitches, meet slap.

:rolleyes

http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y64/teyshablue/Lebowski.jpg

[boutons_deux]

So none of you fuckers answer the question:

What Congressional Repugs were howling about duyba's/Paulsen's TARP 3-pager, before it got porked up?

[Wild Cobra]

So none of you fuckers answer the question:

What Congressional Repugs were howling about duyba's/Paulsen's TARP 3-pager, before it got porked up?
Some republicans were for it, including my senator from Oregon, Gordon Smith. Please notice I did not vote for him in 2008, nor did many others, and he lost. I think they should all be kicked out. I don't know most the names and I don't care. At least it was legislated as a loan, and not to be used for anything else. Repayments were legislated to pay the debt back down.

Can't say that about TARP 2.

[coyotes_geek]

So none of you fuckers answer the question:

What Congressional Repugs were howling about duyba's/Paulsen's TARP 3-pager, before it got porked up?

One of many articles that can be found in a 2 second google search.

Republican Opposition to Paulson's Bailout Plan Stalls Talks (http://moneymorning.com/2008/09/26/bailout-plan/)

[Wild Cobra]

Anyone remember how fast and hard the markets dropped when corporate America realized the bailout would become a reality?

[TeyshaBlue]

One of many articles that can be found in a 2 second google search.

Republican Opposition to Paulson's Bailout Plan Stalls Talks (http://moneymorning.com/2008/09/26/bailout-plan/)

Oh snap!

[TeyshaBlue]

One of many articles that can be found in a 2 second google search.

Republican Opposition to Paulson's Bailout Plan Stalls Talks (http://moneymorning.com/2008/09/26/bailout-plan/)


Bitches, meet slap.

Enjoy the delicious sauce.:lmao

[coyotes_geek]

Enjoy the delicious sauce.:lmao

:lol

I'm sure bitchslap is working on some new theory where the republicans only pretended to be against tarp because they knew they could use the jedi mind trick on the democrats to get them to support it.

[Wild Cobra]

I haven't tried looking, maybe someone knows...

Did any republicans who voted for TARP in 2008, get reelected?

[coyotes_geek]

I haven't tried looking, maybe someone knows...

Did any republicans who voted for TARP in 2008, get reelected?

Yes. Lamar Smith, TX-21.

[Nbadan]

Funny how the board wing-nuts enjoy setting up straw-men so that they can knock em down...

Fact:


The Troubled Asset Relief Program, commonly referred to as TARP, is a program of the United States government to purchase assets and equity from financial institutions to strengthen its financial sector. It is the largest component of the government's measures in 2008 to address the subprime mortgage crisis.

Originally expected to cost the U.S. Government — and, by extension, the U.S. taxpayer — $356 billion, the most recent estimates of the cost, as of April 12, 2010, is down to $89 billion, which is 42% less than the taxpayers' cost of the Savings and loan crisis of the late 1980s.[1] The cost of that crisis amounted to 3.2% of GDP during the Reagan/Bush era, while the the GDP percentage of the current crisis' cost is estimated at less than 1%.[2] While it was once feared the government would be holding companies like GM, AIG and Citigroup for several years, those companies are preparing to buy back the Treasury's stake and emerge from TARP within a year.[3] Of the $245 billion invested in U.S. banks, over $169 billion has been paid back, including $13.7 billion in dividends, interest and other income, along with $4 billion in warrant proceeds as of April 2010. AIG is considered "on track" to pay back $51 billion from divestitures of two units and another $32 billion in securities.[4]

Wiki (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troubled_Asset_Relief_Program)

The horror! Reagan was a socialists!

[Nbadan]

In the final 9 months of the Bush administration, my 401K lost 29.3% of its value. Since Obama took office, it has gained 34.4%.

Since Obama was sworn in, my 401K account has swelled by over $38,000.... . basically restoring all of the losses Bush's last year cost me.

I'm a middle-class guy in a middle-class neighborhood with a middle-class house. I've worked for 20 years to build up my savings. Nearly 50% of the population has a 401K or Roth IRA.

Middle-class families are invested in the stock market through 401ks, pension funds and IRAs....

The Dow was 7,900 the day Obama was sworn in. It's over 11,000 today.

This stuff matters....

[baseline bum]

Yes. Lamar Smith, TX-21.

John Cornyn too.

[Winehole23]

In the final 9 months of the Bush administration, my 401K lost 29.3% of its value. Since Obama took office, it has gained 34.4%.

Since Obama was sworn in, my 401K account has swelled by over $38,000.... . basically restoring all of the losses Bush's last year cost me.

I'm a middle-class guy in a middle-class neighborhood with a middle-class house. I've worked for 20 years to build up my savings. Nearly 50% of the population has a 401K or Roth IRA.

Middle-class families are invested in the stock market through 401ks, pension funds and IRAs....

The Dow was 7,900 the day Obama was sworn in. It's over 11,000 today.

This stuff matters....You think we're out of the woods?

They just pumped up the bubble again...

There's a disconnect with the real economy. U-6 is still over 16%. How long til it reaches the status quo ante (5.5%)?

And how much will oil cost then?

[Winehole23]

Pitching TARP as a moneymaker is bullshit when over $2T in Fed loans is still opaque.

[Winehole23]

And when shitty banks still get to mark their unmarketable assets to a non-existent market...I mean, whatever hasn't already been shuffled off to the US taxpayer, sub rosa, without any disclosure at the emergency Fed pawnshops...

[Winehole23]

Are you fucking kidding, Dan? You're apologizing for the three card monte here...

[Winehole23]

Follow the queen, follow the queen...

[EVAY]

You think we're out of the woods?

They just pumped up the bubble again...

There's a disconnect with the real economy. U-6 is still over 16%. How long til it reaches the status quo ante (5.5%)?

And how much will oil cost then?

I agree that the bubble is inflating again.

The only thing good about the bubble re-inflating is that it gave a chance to the investors stuck in some of the big hedge funds who took the collapse as an opportunity to close their funds to any redemptions at all (stopped the potential runs on them) to get out of them. Most of the funds are now allowing full or more rapid redemption, so that they are no longer saying to the invester "you cannot have any money you have left in here until I let you".

Believe me, I have gotten out of every one of them, and am sworn never to go back.

My problem now is, what do I do with the redeemed funds?

I trusted this market when the Dow was at about 10,000 and moving laterally. I expected it to do that for about a year.

Now, the Dow is up over 11,000, and has gotten there in less than two months. To me, that is evidence of a bubble, and as you point out correctly, WH, nothing at all has fundamentally changed to stop the bubble burst repeating. I'm staying on the sidelines for this one.

[coyotes_geek]

I agree that the bubble is inflating again.

The only thing good about the bubble re-inflating is that it gave a chance to the investors stuck in some of the big hedge funds who took the collapse as an opportunity to close their funds to any redemptions at all (stopped the potential runs on them) to get out of them. Most of the funds are now allowing full or more rapid redemption, so that they are no longer saying to the invester "you cannot have any money you have left in here until I let you".

Believe me, I have gotten out of every one of them, and am sworn never to go back.

My problem now is, what do I do with the redeemed funds?

I trusted this market when the Dow was at about 10,000 and moving laterally. I expected it to do that for about a year.

Now, the Dow is up over 11,000, and has gotten there in less than two months. To me, that is evidence of a bubble, and as you point out correctly, WH, nothing at all has fundamentally changed to stop the bubble burst repeating. I'm staying on the sidelines for this one.

I'm torn. I agree with you and WH about a new bubble forming, but on the other hand companies have been spending the last 18 months shoring up their balance sheets. If/when this new bubble pops I don't think stocks are going to take nearly the hit that they did in 08. That being said, I'm not sure enough that I'm right about that, so when in doubt, sit it out. Other than my 401k contributions my savings/investment income these days is going towards paying off my mortgage early.

[coyotes_geek]

Pitching TARP as a moneymaker is bullshit when over $2T in Fed loans is still opaque.

Yep. Even the stories about the loans that are transparent are being distorted. AIG for example. Dan's article says they're on track to repay a total of $83 billion. That would be something to feel good about if $83 billion was all that we gave them. It's like saying "if you don't count the money we're not going to get back, we're going to get all our money back".

[TeyshaBlue]

I'm torn. I agree with you and WH about a new bubble forming, but on the other hand companies have been spending the last 18 months shoring up their balance sheets. If/when this new bubble pops I don't think stocks are going to take nearly the hit that they did in 08. That being said, I'm not sure enough that I'm right about that, so when in doubt, sit it out. Other than my 401k contributions my savings/investment income these days is going towards paying off my mortgage early.

Some would say the big shoe hasn't dropped yet. Between now and 2013, something like 1 trillion in commercial real estate loans will come due. I've read where anywhere between 1/3 to 1/2 half of those have been converted into securities.

[coyotes_geek]

Some would say the big shoe hasn't dropped yet. Between now and 2013, something like 1 trillion in commercial real estate loans will come due. I've read where anywhere between 1/3 to 1/2 half of those have been converted into securities.

Commercial real estate is another thing that has me confused. It seems like we've been hearing "commerical real estate is next" for well over a year now, and the crash never seems to get here. Not saying it never will, but I'm beginning to wonder if it's possible that the banks and commerical borrowers are finding a way to work things out. I've got a REIT index fund in my 401k and it's been my best performer over the last year.

[EVAY]

I'm torn. I agree with you and WH about a new bubble forming, but on the other hand companies have been spending the last 18 months shoring up their balance sheets. If/when this new bubble pops I don't think stocks are going to take nearly the hit that they did in 08. That being said, I'm not sure enough that I'm right about that, so when in doubt, sit it out. Other than my 401k contributions my savings/investment income these days is going towards paying off my mortgage early.

Smart move in paying down the mortgage these days, I think.

[EVAY]

Commercial real estate is another thing that has me confused. It seems like we've been hearing "commerical real estate is next" for well over a year now, and the crash never seems to get here. Not saying it never will, but I'm beginning to wonder if it's possible that the banks and commerical borrowers are finding a way to work things out. I've got a REIT index fund in my 401k and it's been my best performer over the last year.

You have to do what you think is best, man. Me? I'm too scared right now.

I agree that the economy is poised for a slow but generally steady, jobless recovery, but my fear is that the market is becoming disconnected from the economy again, and could bring it down.

Good luck with the REIT thing. I'm serious. I hope you do well with it. Younger people should have some confidence in their investments, but I'm too old to take another hit like the last one. I'm not touching them (REITS, I mean).

[coyotes_geek]

Smart move in paying down the mortgage these days, I think.

It's not sexy, but it's a guaranteed safe return. These days, I'll take it.


You have to do what you think is best, man. Me? I'm too scared right now.

I agree that the economy is poised for a slow but generally steady, jobless recovery, but my fear is that the market is becoming disconnected from the economy again, and could bring it down.

Good luck with the REIT thing. I'm serious. I hope you do well with it. Younger people should have some confidence in their investments, but I'm too old to take another hit like the last one. I'm not touching them (REITS, I mean).

With 20+ years to go I do have time on my side. Plus I only started putting money into it 18 months ago. Figured I was buying in at or near the bottom, and even if I wasn't, I wasn't losing much. I've just been surprised that over that 18 months it's outperformed my large cap, small cap and international funds.

I really don't know what I'd do if I was right up against retirement though, so I see your dilemma. Nothing but bonds and cash I guess.

[RandomGuy]

I agree that the bubble is inflating again.

The only thing good about the bubble re-inflating is that it gave a chance to the investors stuck in some of the big hedge funds who took the collapse as an opportunity to close their funds to any redemptions at all (stopped the potential runs on them) to get out of them. Most of the funds are now allowing full or more rapid redemption, so that they are no longer saying to the invester "you cannot have any money you have left in here until I let you".

Believe me, I have gotten out of every one of them, and am sworn never to go back.

My problem now is, what do I do with the redeemed funds?

I trusted this market when the Dow was at about 10,000 and moving laterally. I expected it to do that for about a year.

Now, the Dow is up over 11,000, and has gotten there in less than two months. To me, that is evidence of a bubble, and as you point out correctly, WH, nothing at all has fundamentally changed to stop the bubble burst repeating. I'm staying on the sidelines for this one.

If you have a good time horizon, make bets now on companies that stand to benefit from higher energy/oil prices.

GE being one, despite their finance arm. They stand to gain massively from growth in wind/solar power, as well as any new nukes.

Coke because it is so globally diversified.

Both offer divendend reinvestment, which provides a good way to keep money working without broker fees or worrying if the market goes down.

I think there is still plenty of stuff out there, if you are looking long-term.

Bet on energy overall, especially oil, getting more expensive. The most money to be made in any market is to get in on a rapidly growing small sector.

Given that humanity gets precious little of our energy today from wind/solar, that sector of the energy market seems to fit the bill. We will likely never really get all, or even most of our energy from such sources, don't believe the hype about that.

BUT

What WILL happen is that as other forms of energy get COMPARATIVELY more expensive, money/capital will flow into renewables, and the proportion of our energy gotten from them will grow. The cool thing about that is that since it starts from such a small base to begin with, it doesn't take much to get some pretty astounding gains.

Personally, if I had to bet the farm, I would bet on concentrating solar thermal, and any company that stands to benefit from "smart grids" and expanding eletrical transmission capacity. (did I mention GE?)

Good luck for whenever you do dip your toes back in.

[EVAY]

It's not sexy, but it's a guaranteed safe return. These days, I'll take it.



With 20+ years to go I do have time on my side. Plus I only started putting money into it 18 months ago. Figured I was buying in at or near the bottom, and even if I wasn't, I wasn't losing much. I've just been surprised that over that 18 months it's outperformed my large cap, small cap and international funds.

I really don't know what I'd do if I was right up against retirement though, so I see your dilemma. Nothing but bonds and cash I guess.

International has been the best for me over the same time horizon, and has actually done quite well, but you're exactly right on where I've landed...'protected' munis and cash, with the exception of a gas pipeline partnership I've gotten into because I think that fuel costs going up (oil and/or natural gas) will carry the pipeline companies with them without the same level of volatility as oil alone.

For what it's worth (and you know what free advice is worth)...be smart about your 18 month horizon. I directed a mammoth study of the stock markets in the late 80s in an attempt to test the efficient market hypothesis, and found out that the market is efficient, but it takes stocks about 18 months to move from one or so standard deviations back to the mean.

In other words, the market is only efficient over a period of about 18 months, and that was prior to all the derivatives and credit-swaps etc. that took over the market in the 90's and recently.

Best of luck to you, though.

I believe in America and her eventual win-through...just nervous about the times right now.

[EVAY]

If you have a good time horizon, make bets now on companies that stand to benefit from higher energy/oil prices.

GE being one, despite their finance arm. They stand to gain massively from growth in wind/solar power, as well as any new nukes.

Coke because it is so globally diversified.

Both offer divendend reinvestment, which provides a good way to keep money working without broker fees or worrying if the market goes down.

I think there is still plenty of stuff out there, if you are looking long-term.

Bet on energy overall, especially oil, getting more expensive. The most money to be made in any market is to get in on a rapidly growing small sector.

Given that humanity gets precious little of our energy today from wind/solar, that sector of the energy market seems to fit the bill. We will likely never really get all, or even most of our energy from such sources, don't believe the hype about that.

BUT

What WILL happen is that as other forms of energy get COMPARATIVELY more expensive, money/capital will flow into renewables, and the proportion of our energy gotten from them will grow. The cool thing about that is that since it starts from such a small base to begin with, it doesn't take much to get some pretty astounding gains.

Personally, if I had to bet the farm, I would bet on concentrating solar thermal, and any company that stands to benefit from "smart grids" and expanding eletrical transmission capacity. (did I mention GE?)

Good luck for whenever you do dip your toes back in.

Well said, especially about the energy sector. As I mentioned to CG, I think that all of us have to be mindful of the time horizon on our movements, but I think the energy sector has some less volatile aspects than pure oil speculation, and besides the fuel transport element that I like, I think you are right on with a long-term approach to things like expanding transmission capacity.

I enjoy reading your thoughts.

[boutons_deux]

Elizabeth Warren seems pretty credible

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/02/11/commercial-real-estate-wa_n_458092.html

http://money.cnn.com/2010/02/04/news/companies/banks_commercial_real_estate/

http://logisticsmonster.com/2010/02/11/get-ready-for-the-commercial-real-estate-bubble-2-0/

Just like the housing price bubble, the commercial property price bubble has popped, leaving many commercial property owners underwater and desperate for tenants.

Just like many home owners are walking away, commercial owners are walking away or declaring bankruptcy.

For commercial, it seems 2011-2014 is the window for the crisis.

[Winehole23]

Elizabeth Warren is one of my current political crushes. Too bad she has no real power.

[Nbadan]

Pitching TARP as a moneymaker is bullshit when over $2T in Fed loans is still opaque.

So now you want to count losses that haven't even happen yet? get real.

:rolleyes

[Nbadan]

Are you fucking kidding, Dan? You're apologizing for the three card monte here...

I'm not apologizing for anything, if you want to sit around and be pessimistic by all means help yourself, I'm just saying that there is opportunity in the market and in other appreciable assets out there...I've made a killing...

[Nbadan]

..by the way, I didn't get burned in the last market collapse cause I was warning everyone for over a year about the housing bubble, the energy bubble, and the market bubble collapse....this time a trillion dollars in further losses, either in commercial or personal property just doesn't scare me...

[Nbadan]

My problem now is, what do I do with the redeemed funds?

Excellent question, now can imagine billion dollar international money-holders saying the same thing? Do they really want to invest their new billions into their own shitty economies?

...we're on the brink of a major expansion, billions in new collected taxes that haven't been accounted for in projected future budgets to pay off debt...

...I'm not saying there won't be pot-holds along the way, there always are, but the fool is he who always follows the major wave...and right now, that wave is pessimism..

[EVAY]

Excellent question, now can imagine billion dollar international money-holders saying the same thing? Do they really want to invest their new billions into their own shitty economies?

...we're on the brink of a major expansion, billions in new collected taxes that haven't been accounted for in projected future budgets to pay off debt...

...I'm not saying there won't be pot-holds along the way, there always are, but the fool is he who always follows the major wave...and right now, that wave is pessimism..

So, Dan, are you suggesting some 'Sovereign' funds that would be in good shape because of this? If so, which, for god's sake? I've made some good monies in international funds that were in emerging markets, but you seem to be referring to knowledge of projected future budgets... but I, for one, don't know what they are.

Crumbs for the hungry?

[Nbadan]

I'm just referring to overall trends that I see, I don't make specific recommendations on this forum...I've made money in real estate, water rights and consulting/mentoring...

[word]

jobless recovery, only the rich getting richer, the poor getting poorer

nice

Why the republicans are bitching about this guy is a mystery

[EVAY]

jobless recovery, only the rich getting richer, the poor getting poorer

nice

Why the republicans are bitching about this guy is a mystery

good point. I don't know the answer, except that they think that they are expected to do so.

[Nbadan]

jobless recovery, only the rich getting richer, the poor getting poorer

nice

Why the republicans are bitching about this guy is a mystery

All expansions are job-less at first, but people are picky bitches, you have it good, think of how your dad and his dad had it...

...I'm willing to bet that there is food in your belly and a nice warm bed waiting..

[Nbadan]

good point. I don't know the answer, except that they think that they are expected to do so.

..they did the same thing to Clinton, it's par for course...

[Nbadan]

..the GOP wants absolute control, not economic control, but social control...the new right is not fiscally conservative they are theocracists....

[word]

good point. I don't know the answer, except that they think that they are expected to do so.

Same reason the dems hug his balls. Playground politics. No more, no less.

[EVAY]

..the GOP wants absolute control, not economic control, but social control...the new right is not fiscally conservative they are theocracists....

this does appear to be a valid point...very valid point.

[word]

..the GOP wants absolute control, not economic control, but social control...the new right is not fiscally conservative they are theocracists....

blah blah blah ....

[word]

this does appear to be a valid point...very valid point.

It is ? A theocracy ala Iran ? That's what the 'new right' wants ?

[Nbadan]

It is ? A theocracy ala Iran ? That's what the 'new right' wants ?

A Christian theocracy...read up on Michele Bachmann, Sarah Palin and some of the other far right loonies...

[word]

think of how your dad and his dad had it...



Yeah, and it was pretty fucking good...by their own telling of it, compared to now. Granted, my dad is 85 and grandfathers are dead but they didn't seem to bitch about it. The depression was a short period in their lives and even that wasn't that bad for them.

We've been duped, by consumerism, to thinking this life we have is all that much better.

It's not. In many ways, it's worse.

[word]

A Christian theocracy...read up on Michele Bachmann, Sarah Palin and some of the other far right loonies...

Fucking please ....

[Winehole23]

So now you want to count losses that haven't even happen yet? get real.

:rolleyesThe losses need to be cleared and counted so values can adjust, and we can get on with our lives. There's no transparency wrt to the shitty risk we took on. We need to know how bad it really is.

[Winehole23]

Hell, the NY Fed just the other day disclosed tens of billions it secretly provided in the Bear Stearns deal before any authorizing emergency legislation had passed.

Were there other secret, unannounced deals?

How many for how much? What was the collateral? To whom was the money lent?

[Winehole23]

Get real, Dan. We need to know what our government pawned our fucking future for.

[Nbadan]

The losses need to be cleared and counted so values can adjust, and we can get on with our lives. There's no transparency wrt to the shitty risk we took on. We need to know how bad it really is.

That what the free market is for....sure there's gonna be losses but they are collateral losses, the asset is still there, give homeowners some time to dump their houses and cut their losses so that the govt doesn't have too...

[Blake]

Obama made $5 million last year.

I'd say Obamanomics is working for him.

[Wild Cobra]

Funny how the board wing-nuts enjoy setting up straw-men so that they can knock em down...

Fact:

The Troubled Asset Relief Program, commonly referred to as TARP, is a program of the United States government to purchase assets and equity from financial institutions to strengthen its financial sector. It is the largest component of the government's measures in 2008 to address the subprime mortgage crisis.

Originally expected to cost the U.S. Government — and, by extension, the U.S. taxpayer — $356 billion, the most recent estimates of the cost, as of April 12, 2010, is down to $89 billion, which is 42% less than the taxpayers' cost of the Savings and loan crisis of the late 1980s.[1] The cost of that crisis amounted to 3.2% of GDP during the Reagan/Bush era, while the the GDP percentage of the current crisis' cost is estimated at less than 1%.[2] While it was once feared the government would be holding companies like GM, AIG and Citigroup for several years, those companies are preparing to buy back the Treasury's stake and emerge from TARP within a year.[3] Of the $245 billion invested in U.S. banks, over $169 billion has been paid back, including $13.7 billion in dividends, interest and other income, along with $4 billion in warrant proceeds as of April 2010. AIG is considered "on track" to pay back $51 billion from divestitures of two units and another $32 billion in securities.[4]


Wiki (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troubled_Asset_Relief_Program)

The horror! Reagan was a socialists!
Thank-you Dan.

It would have never passed without limited republican/blue dog democrat support.

In hindsight, I will say it's good it passed then, instead of waiting till the democrats had a solid majority. Getting it passed then required the amendment that any money not used and all money paid back, you go back to paying down the debt. Now if they do the accounting right on this, it is lowering president Bush's deficit. Not Obama's. At least the unused money. However, the repaid money should go to reducing Bush's deficit. Not Obama's. I suspect they will offset Obama's budget however.

[Wild Cobra]

In the final 9 months of the Bush administration, my 401K lost 29.3% of its value. Since Obama took office, it has gained 34.4%.

Since Obama was sworn in, my 401K account has swelled by over $38,000.... . basically restoring all of the losses Bush's last year cost me.

I'm a middle-class guy in a middle-class neighborhood with a middle-class house. I've worked for 20 years to build up my savings. Nearly 50% of the population has a 401K or Roth IRA.

Middle-class families are invested in the stock market through 401ks, pension funds and IRAs....

The Dow was 7,900 the day Obama was sworn in. It's over 11,000 today.

This stuff matters....
You have to remember, the changes for short sells and the democrats gaining control of congress in January 2007 were the triggers of the losses starting in August 2007. Takes time for corporations to become profitable again under new rules. The increase back to 11,000+ is not a sign the democrats are doing anything right. Business is. Still not good considering it was 14,000+ before.

It was nice buying stock at 3 shares for the price of two wasn't it? Isn't it possible it's all in the big players game plan?

[Wild Cobra]

You think we're out of the woods?

They just pumped up the bubble again...

There's a disconnect with the real economy. U-6 is still over 16%. How long til it reaches the status quo ante (5.5%)?

And how much will oil cost then?
I agree. Unless we get good jobs back our way that have been outsources, I see no bright future, except fort the real wealthy.

[Nbadan]

You have to remember, the changes for short sells and the democrats gaining control of congress in January 2007 were the triggers of the losses starting in August 2007. Takes time for corporations to become profitable again under new rules. The increase back to 11,000+ is not a sign the democrats are doing anything right. Business is. Still not good considering it was 14,000+ before.

It was nice buying stock at 3 shares for the price of two wasn't it? Isn't it possible it's all in the big players game plan?

I don't think the Dems taking congress had anything to do with it....more like a natural economic cycle that washes out the excesses from the last economic expansion, of course, the wash, or losses, can be made worse by trying to delay this natural cycle as Duyba did for the last two years of his term...the signs don't lie, despite some continued bullishness by some business investors because of mixed economic signals, economic expansion is happening at a good pace...

[word]

Obama hasn't been in office long enough to affect the economy. We'll have Obamas economy around 2014 forward, when the health care bill kicks in. The idea that Presidents can have any immediate impact on the economy is a fallacy. The short term affect of any president, is nominal, at best. In 10 years, whatever that holds, we'll be solidly in the Obamaconomy. These are drastic changes. We'll see what they hold. We're still dealing with FDR's economy in some ways. We just doubled down on that. Trippled, quadrupled down on that and the 'great society' of Johnson. We're in uncharted waters here. We have fundamentally changed our country.

Good night, and good luck, as Edward R Murrow used to say.