western conf standings

[mabrignani]

if denver wins tomorrow and we beat dallas then spurs will play dallas in the first round as the 6 seed and them the 3.
if denver wins tomorrow, okc and portland win both of their games and we beat dallas that would mean we would play denver first round right?

[DesignatedT]

false and false.

you're all sorts of confused.

[mabrignani]

well can someone un-confuse me bc is there anyway denver can get the #2 spot?

[mabrignani]

if denver and utah win out the rest of the season and we beat dallas then that is a 3 way tie for 2nd....right?

[HarlemHeat37]

The only way the Spurs can get 6th is if Golden State beats Portland and the Spurs beat Dallas IIRC..

I don't see Golden State beating Portland..if it was at Oracle, I could definitely see G-Spot winning, but they aren't going to win on the road, even if Nellie convinces them to play hard and help the Spurs..

The best case is for Utah to win these last 2 games and Denver loses to Phoenix tomorrow and the Spurs beat Dallas..then the Spurs would be 7th and Utah would be 2nd IIRC..the Jazz don't scare me at all, despite sweeping the Spurs this season..I'd rather get them as opposed to Dallas..

[sa_kid20]

Denver can't get the 2 spot.

The 2nd seed will go to Dallas with a Denver win or Utah loss tomorrow.

Utah gets the 2 seed if they end the season in a two-way tiebreaker with the Mavs.

[DubMcDub]

Denver can no longer get the two spot. With Dallas's win tonight, only Dallas or Utah can get the two spot now.

[DesignatedT]

only way we play denver is if denver gets the 3 and we get the 6... that means golden state has to beat portland and we have to beat dallas.. denver cannot get the 2 seed. they can only get the 3.

the only teams that can get the 2 are dallas or utah... because dallas has the tiebreaker between all the teams except utah.

that means if we want to play utah then we have to beat dallas and utah has to win there remaining 2 games (GSW and PHX) .... (and phx has to beat denver tomorrow)

if we lose to dallas wedneday then we play dallas no matter what.

hope this helps.

[mabrignani]

Thanks for clearing things up guys, i appreciate it

i say we root for denver, id rather play denver than any other team in the west

[kaji157]

The only way we won´t face Utah or Dallas is if we win at Dallas, Phoenix wins out (Utah and Denver), and Portland looses against GSW.

That way Dallas and Phoenix end with 54-28 (Dallas owns the tiebreaker for division champ), and both Denver and Utah are limited on a season best 53-29 because both are loosing to PHX.

So basically we have to win at Dallas, hope for 2 PHX wins, and hope for a GS upset.

Sorry, forget to check on denver, i´m on it.

[DesignatedT]

Thanks for clearing things up guys, i appreciate it

i say we root for denver, id rather play denver than any other team in the west

we would have to beat dallas and the warriors would have to beat portland for us to have a chance to match up with denver.

[DesignatedT]

The only way we won´t face Utah or Dallas is if we win at Dallas, Phoenix wins out (Utah and Denver), and Portland looses against GSW.

That way Dallas and Phoenix end with 54-28 (Dallas owns the tiebreaker for division champ), and both Denver and Utah are limited on a season best 53-29 because both are loosing to PHX.

So basically we have to win at Dallas, hope for 2 PHX wins, and hope for a GS upset.

so is there no possible way to play denver? if we beat dallas and gs beats port and we end up 6th... who would be the 3? phoenix? or are denver or utah possibilities of the 3 seed at that point?

[sa_kid20]

The only way we won´t face Utah or Dallas is if we win at Dallas, Phoenix wins out (Utah and Denver), and Portland looses against GSW.

That way Dallas and Phoenix end with 54-28 (Dallas owns the tiebreaker for division champ), and both Denver and Utah are limited on a season best 53-29 because both are loosing to PHX.

So basically we have to win at Dallas, hope for 2 PHX wins, and hope for a GS upset.

Sorry, forget to check on denver, i´m on it.

So if all that would happen we would play PHX as the 6th seed right?

[Killakobe81]

SO ?

Most likely is ...

Lakers/OKC
Mavs/Spurs
Jazz/Suns
Denver/Blazers

[DesignatedT]

SO ?

Most likely is ...

Lakers/OKC
Mavs/Spurs
Jazz/Suns
Denver/Blazers

most likely... could switch up though.

[kaji157]

If we beat Dallas, GS beats Portland, and Denver beats PHX, no matter the other results, We will face Denver. Because Denver wins all the tiebreakers.

If Denver, Phoenix and Utah are tied, Denver (conference record for division title with Utah) wins the top seed and the winner of Wednesday's Phoenix-Utah game wins the next seed.
If Denver and Utah end the season tied, Denver wins (3-1 season series win).

If Denver looses to PHX, Utah Splits and PHX splits (this mean Utah lost to GS) then we face denver because those 3 will be tied. If Utah doesn´t split, we face Utah, all assuming POrland lost to GS.

[DesignatedT]

If we beat Dallas, GS beats Portland, and Denver beats PHX, no matter the other results, We will face Denver. Because Denver wins all the tiebreakers.

If Denver, Phoenix and Utah are tied, Denver (conference record for division title with Utah) wins the top seed and the winner of Wednesday's Phoenix-Utah game wins the next seed.
If Denver and Utah end the season tied, Denver wins (3-1 season series win).

If Denver looses to PHX, Utah Splits and PHX splits (this mean Utah lost to GS) then we face denver because those 3 will be tied. If Utah doesn´t split, we face Utah, all assuming POrland lost to GS.

this post totally mindfucked me

[jason1301]

SO ?

Most likely is ...

Lakers/OKC
Mavs/Spurs
Jazz/Suns
Denver/Blazers

Spurs and Blazers for the upset, Lakers are lucky to face OKC

[kaji157]

this post totally mindfucked me

which part?

I´ll try to make it clear.

-------------------------------------------

Denver (53-28) faces PHX

PHX (52-28) faces Denver and then Utah

Utah (52-28) faces GS and then PHX

---------------------------------------------

If Denver wins at PHX, they are 3rd. they will be 54-28, and own all the tiebreakers agaist both Utah (by conference record) and Phx (by being division winner).

----------------------------------------------

If Denver looses they finish 53-29, meaning Phx will be 53-28 before facing Utah (lets say they beat GS) that is also 53-28. Whoever wins this matchup will finish 3rd.
If Utah lost to GS they are 52-29, and PHX win in Denver. PHX will be 53-28. So if Phx wins at Utah, PHX (54-28) finish 3rd and Utah (52-30) 5th , but if Utah wins against PHX. Then PHX ends with 53-29 at 5th, Utah ends with 53-29 at 4th and Denver clinches 3rd 53-29 because they own season series against Utah and conference record.

[mabrignani]

this post totally mindfucked me

haha welcome to the club

[DesignatedT]

which part?

I´ll try to make it clear.

-------------------------------------------

Denver (53-28) faces PHX

PHX (52-28) faces Denver and then Utah

Utah (52-28) faces GS and then PHX

---------------------------------------------

If Denver wins at PHX, they are 3rd. they will be 54-28, and own all the tiebreakers agaist both Utah (by conference record) and Phx (by being division winner).

----------------------------------------------

If Denver looses they finish 53-29, meaning Phx will be 53-28 before facing Utah (lets say they beat GS) that is also 53-28. Whoever wins this matchup will finish 3rd.
If Utah lost to GS they are 52-29, and PHX win in Denver. PHX will be 53-28. So if Phx wins at Utah, PHX (54-28) finish 3rd and Utah (52-30) 5th , but if Utah wins against PHX. Then PHX ends with 53-29 at 5th, Utah ends with 53-29 at 4th and Denver clinches 3rd 53-29 because they own season series against Utah and conference record.

so if denver wins tomorrow then it's either dallas or denver for the spurs right.... if phx beats denver tom then that leaves it open for a possible matchup against anyone(dal,den,phx,utah) going into the last night... correct?

[kaji157]

so if denver wins tomorrow then it's either dallas or denver for the spurs right.... if phx beats denver tom then that leaves it open for a possible matchup against anyone(dal,den,phx,utah) going into the last night... correct?

That´s right, only if Portland looses to GS. If Portland wins, then our options are Utah (has to win out) or Dallas (if Utah doesn´t win out or if we lose to them).

[TDMVPDPOY]

utah or denver would be nice..

[dastrey]

So it's about a 50/50 Dallas or Utah.

[Dirkadirkastan]

So it's about a 50/50 Dallas or Utah.

Only if you're a homer and think the Spurs are 75% favorites in Dallas.

More realistically, if the game is 50-50, then there's probably a 75% chance there's a Mavs/Spurs series. A Mavs win guarantees Mavs/Spurs, and there's a bunch of ways they could meet anyway if the Spurs win, at 2/7 or even 3/6.

[exstatic]

It actually doesn't matter. We're locked into 6/7. Being in that side of the bracket, you have to beat both the 2 and the 3 seed to advance to the WCFs. Does it really matter in what order you face them?

[EricB]

It actually doesn't matter. We're locked into 6/7. Being in that side of the bracket, you have to beat both the 2 and the 3 seed to advance to the WCFs. Does it really matter in what order you face them?

Very true.

Either way its gonna be tough. Although facing Denver early while Karl is out then Dallas may be perfect.

[Seventyniner]

It actually doesn't matter. We're locked into 6/7. Being in that side of the bracket, you have to beat both the 2 and the 3 seed to advance to the WCFs. Does it really matter in what order you face them?

It seems that more people are worried about who those teams are, not what order they're in. Playing Denver in round 1 (or 2) would be far easier than having to play both Utah and Dallas in some order to reach the WCF.

[Muser]

If we get Dallas and beat them in round one then we have a damn god chance of getting to the WCF.

[Biggems]

I was kind of hoping the top 4 seeds would be LA, Utah, Den, Dallas.

I was hoping we would be the 6 seed...take Denver out of their misery, get sweet revenge on Utah, and then face LA, Dallas, or PHX in the WCF.

[florige]

this post totally mindfucked me



:lol

[BronxCowboy]

Denver can no longer get the two spot. With Dallas's win tonight, only Dallas or Utah can get the two spot now.

Unless I'm missing something, this is wrong. Denver CAN get the 2nd seed if they beat Phoenix, Spurs beat Dallas, and Utah beats both Phoenix and Golden State. In that scenario, Dallas, Denver, and Utah all end 54-28, and Denver is 4-3 amongst the 3, while Dallas is 3-3, and Utah is 3-4.

[BronxCowboy]

Here's the breakdown of all 1st-round possibilities (somebody correct me if I missed something):

Spurs face Dallas if:
-They lose to Dallas OR
-Spurs beat Dallas AND Utah wins both remaining AND GSW beats Portland OR
-Spurs beat Dallas AND Utah loses to GSW AND Portland beats GSW OR
-Spurs beat Dallas AND Utah and Portland both beat GSW AND Phoenix beats Utah

Spurs face Denver if:
-Spurs beat Dallas AND Denver beats Phoenix AND GS beats both Utah and Portland OR
-Spurs beat Dallas AND Denver beats Phoenix AND Utah beats GS AND GS beats Portland AND Phoenix beats Utah OR
-Spurs beat Dallas AND Denver beats Phoenix AND Utah and Portland BOTH beat GS AND Utah beats Phoenix

Spurs face Phoenix if:
-Spurs beat Dallas AND Phoenix beats Denver AND GS beats BOTH Utah and Portland OR
-Spurs beat Dallas AND Phoenix beats BOTH Denver and Utah AND Utah beats GS AND GS beats Portland

Spurs face Utah if:
-Spurs beat Dallas AND Utah wins BOTH remaining AND Phoenix beats Denver AND Portland beats GS

[in2deep]

too many scenarios.

[Danny.Zhu]

I was kind of hoping the top 4 seeds would be LA, Utah, Den, Dallas.

I was hoping we would be the 6 seed...take Denver out of their misery, get sweet revenge on Utah, and then face LA, Dallas, or PHX in the WCF.

Me too.

But Mavs would probably secure the No 2 seed and thus avoid the Lakers before the WCF. So we need to beat both to make it to the finals which is very very difficult.

[in2deep]

Me too.

But Mavs would probably secure the No 2 seed and thus avoid the Lakers before the WCF. So we need to beat both to make it to the finals which is very very difficult.

Mavs vs. Spurs last game of the season will be the decider if we face Mavs or Utah/Denver. book it.

big game.

[robino2001]

Here is the absolute clearest thing I've seen yet.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_ylt=AkXt0YjWH4QtdxKQHiSPwMQ5nYcB?slug=ys-playoffscenarios10

Scenarios by game

Game winner Seeds and wins
UTH DEN SA PHO
GS PHO DAL UTH
UTH DEN DAL UTH -> 2 DAL 55, 3 DEN 54, 4 UTH 54, 5 PHO 52
GS DEN DAL UTH -> 2 DAL 55, 3 DEN 54, 4 UTH 53, 5 PHO 52
GS PHO DAL UTH -> 2 DAL 55, 3 DEN 53, 4 UTH 53, 5 PHO 53
UTH DEN SA UTH -> 2 DAL 54, 3 DEN 54, 4 UTH 54, 5 PHO 52
GS DEN SA UTH -> 2 DAL 54, 3 DEN 54, 4 UTH 53, 5 PHO 52
GS PHO SA UTH -> 2 DAL 54, 3 DEN 53, 4 UTH 53, 5 PHO 53

UTH DEN DAL PHO -> 2 DAL 55, 3 DEN 54, 4 PHO 53, 5 UTH 53
GS DEN DAL PHO -> 2 DAL 55, 3 DEN 54, 4 PHO 53, 5 UTH 52
UTH DEN SA PHO -> 2 DAL 54, 3 DEN 54, 4 PHO 53, 5 UTH 53
GS DEN SA PHO -> 2 DAL 54, 3 DEN 54, 4 PHO 53, 5 UTH 52

UTH PHO DAL PHO -> 2 DAL 55, 3 PHO 54, 4 DEN 53, 5 UTH 53
GS PHO DAL PHO -> 2 DAL 55, 3 PHO 54, 4 DEN 53, 5 UTH 52
UTH PHO SA PHO -> 2 DAL 54, 3 PHO 54, 4 DEN 53, 5 UTH 53
GS PHO SA PHO -> 2 DAL 54, 3 PHO 54, 4 DEN 53, 5 UTH 52

UTH PHO DAL UTH -> 2 DAL 55, 3 UTH 54, 4 PHO 53, 5 DEN 53

UTH PHO SA UTH -> 2 UTH 54, 3 DAL 54, 4 PHO 53, 5 DEN 53

Scenarios by seed

2: DAL 15, UTH 1
3: DEN 10, PHO 4, DAL 1, UTH 1
4: PHO 6, UTH 6, DEN 4
5: UTH 8, PHO 6, DEN 2

Scenarios by team

DAL: (15/16) 2, ( 1/16) 3
DEN: (10/16) 3, (4/16) 4, (2/16) 5
UTH: ( 1/16) 2, ( 1/16) 3, (6/16) 4, (8/16) 5
PHO: ( 4/16) 3, (6/16) 4, (6/16) 5

[BronxCowboy]

The Yahoo! article is wrong about what would happen if Denver, Dallas and Utah all tied, unless there is a game somewhere that I can't find.

[vander]

DAMN DAMN DAMN DAMN :bang

I really wanted the Lakers in the first round with Bynum still injured, Dallas in round one is an absolute worst case scenario for us

why did OKC have to suck so hard this last week?!?

DAMN

[MannyIsGod]

The Spurs likely road to the finals goes through Dallas, Utah, and Los Angeles all without home court. I don't think the Spurs have ever faced such a difficult task.

Well, if we gotta do it anyway, might as well beat up on Dallas first.

[Dirkadirkastan]

http://i222.photobucket.com/albums/dd21/shadyparadox/scenarios2.png

I think sorting it this way is the most helpful for Spurs fans. Correct me if I've made any mistakes.

[phyzik]

http://i222.photobucket.com/albums/dd21/shadyparadox/scenarios2.png

I think sorting it this way is the most helpful for Spurs fans. Correct me if I've made any mistakes.

nice.

[Dirkadirkastan]

http://i222.photobucket.com/albums/dd21/shadyparadox/scenarios3.png

I actually like sorting it this way better since tonight's games are on the left and will determine the subcategory for tomorrow.

[tmtcsc]

I want Dallas. We owe them some payback. Losing to them last year was so friggin annoying. I don't care when or how it happens. 1st round or second round.

BTW, I think Portland stands a great chance of losing to Golden State. It's one thing to get a win over a tired OKC team w/o Roy and an entirely different challenge to beat a Golden State team that wants to finish the season strong and will let it all fly.

[murpjf88]

I have no idea what I'm looking at. But if I'm to assume on the right are the seedings, then Phoenix cannot finish better than fourth because they lost the division to the lakers.

[ShoogarBear]

So wait . . . the Rockets are out?

[rascal]

http://i222.photobucket.com/albums/dd21/shadyparadox/scenarios2.png

I think sorting it this way is the most helpful for Spurs fans. Correct me if I've made any mistakes.

Nice job. How long did it take?

[tmtcsc]

DAMN DAMN DAMN DAMN :bang

I really wanted the Lakers in the first round with Bynum still injured, Dallas in round one is an absolute worst case scenario for us

why did OKC have to suck so hard this last week?!?

DAMN

Dallas is playing some good Basketball right now but I think we'll be fine against them. Now that Hill and Tony are back and Manu is being Manu, we can beat anyone. The key will be playing solid defense and getting consistent output from our bench -- Bonner and Mason in particular. If Mason pulls up lame, we now have other options like Hairston.

[rascal]

DAMN DAMN DAMN DAMN :bang

I really wanted the Lakers in the first round with Bynum still injured, Dallas in round one is an absolute worst case scenario for us

why did OKC have to suck so hard this last week?!?

DAMN

The spurs are not beating the lakers in any round. They may catch a big break and get Denver which will be an easy 1st round matchup.

But there will be no title this year.

I would rather the spurs draft ahead of portland then the spurs slide into the 6th seed.

[rascal]

Dallas is playing some good Basketball right now but I think we'll be fine against them. Now that Hill and Tony are back and Manu is being Manu, we can beat anyone. The key will be playing solid defense and getting consistent output from our bench -- Bonner and Mason in particular. If Mason pulls up lame, we now have other options like Hairston.

Too many people are not considering the frontline. I don't care how well the spurs backcourt plays, to win a title the frontcourt needs to play well and the spurs don't have the horses on the frontline to go far in the playoffs.

[Ghazi]

Unless I'm missing something, this is wrong. Denver CAN get the 2nd seed if they beat Phoenix, Spurs beat Dallas, and Utah beats both Phoenix and Golden State. In that scenario, Dallas, Denver, and Utah all end 54-28, and Denver is 4-3 amongst the 3, while Dallas is 3-3, and Utah is 3-4.

That is not how the 3-way tie works.

Denver wins division over Utah by virtue of 3-1 in regular season.

So Dallas 2 and Denver 3 since Dallas won the series head to head.

How all three did head to head would only be pertinent if all 3 were division winners or if none were division winners.

[ShoogarBear]

I think sorting it this way is the most helpful for Spurs fans. Correct me if I've made any mistakes.

Very cool.

[gospursgojas]

What has to happen in order for us to play the twolves?...we killed the last night

[ShoogarBear]

To sum:

Spurs play Dallas = 24/32 = 75%
Spurs play Denver = 5/32 = 16%
Spurs play PHX = 2/32 = 6%
Spurs play Utah = 1/32 = 3%

This assumes every individual game has equal probability. In fact, GSW winning vs. Portland is less than 50%, so the chances of the Spurs playing Denver or Phoenix are actually less than above.

[murpjf88]

To sum:

Spurs play Dallas = 24/32 = 75%
Spurs play Denver = 5/32 = 16%
Spurs play PHX = 2/32 = 6%
Spurs play Utah = 1/32 = 3%

This assumes every individual game has equal probability. In fact, GSW winning vs. Portland is less than 50%, so the chances of the Spurs playing Denver or Phoenix are actually less than above.

We have no shot of playing PHX because they can finish no better than fourth. We have a higher probability of playing Utah or Dallas than we do Denver. I don't like Denver's chances against PHX and Utah should win their two remaining games.

[Dirkadirkastan]

We have no shot of playing PHX because they can finish no better than fourth. We have a higher probability of playing Utah or Dallas than we do Denver. I don't like Denver's chances against PHX and Utah should win their two remaining games.

Phoenix CAN move up to #3. Division winners are only guaranteed a top four seed nowadays. They changed the rule after that messed up '06 bracket.

[ShoogarBear]

Assuming the chart above is accurate, there are 8/32 possibilities for Phoenix to finish third.

[mabrignani]

hey im just glad that i started a thread of meaning and people actually reposted to it hahaha

[dbreiden83080]

Well we have the 7 nomatter what right because we have the head to head against OKC and a better conference record. So win or lose against Dallas it should be Spurs and Dallas in round 1..

[ShoogarBear]

Actually, if the Spurs lose, they play the Mavs, but if they win, there's a 50% chance they play somebody else.

[murpjf88]

Phoenix CAN move up to #3. Division winners are only guaranteed a top four seed nowadays. They changed the rule after that messed up '06 bracket.

Yep, your right. I forgot about that change. I still think odds are Denver loses the division to Utah. Denver should lose at PHX and utah should win out. Unless GS pulls off a miracle, Portland is a lock for sixth. This means that most likely, we will play Dallas or Utah. I prefer Dallas, but neither matchup excites me. If Denver should win at PHX, and I'm keeping my fingers crossed they do, then Denver will take the division and its possible to play them in the first round.

[in2deep]

We have no shot of playing PHX because they can finish no better than fourth. We have a higher probability of playing Utah or Dallas than we do Denver. I don't like Denver's chances against PHX and Utah should win their two remaining games.

exactly

it's very simple. If spurs beat dallas, spurs face utah. If spurs lose to dallas, spurs face dallas.

[spurs10]

exactly

it's very simple. If spurs beat dallas, spurs face utah. If spurs lose to dallas, spurs face dallas.
Isn't this only true if Utah wins out as well?

[DesignatedT]

so do we go full speed against the mavs and try to get someone else? but then if we lose we end up showing our cards and it could backfire.

or do we rest the last game... let timmy and manu recover for 4 days say screw it and go balls to walls against dallas......

what do yall think?

[BronxCowboy]

That is not how the 3-way tie works.

Denver wins division over Utah by virtue of 3-1 in regular season.

So Dallas 2 and Denver 3 since Dallas won the series head to head.

How all three did head to head would only be pertinent if all 3 were division winners or if none were division winners.

Thanks... I couldn't figure out why everybody was saying that Denver has no shot at #2.

[silverblk mystix]

DAMN DAMN DAMN DAMN :bang

I really wanted the Lakers in the first round with Bynum still injured, Dallas in round one is an absolute worst case scenario for us

why did OKC have to suck so hard this last week?!?

DAMN

I feel EXACTLY---the same way.

...and I really believe the LAKERS ---were/are the easiest match-up in the first round for the spurs...

spurs just made their life a whole lot HARDER by avoiding the lakers...

but I will be pulling hard that they show up full-force against dallas---and the refs....

irk= 30+ free throws avg---per game= at least 27 free points....


nightmare....

[tmtcsc]

What has to happen in order for us to play the twolves?...we killed the last night

:lol That was good.

[Supergirl]

Best case scenario, IMO, then is for us to beat Dallas and GS to beat Pdx, so that we can play Denver as the #6 seed.

Most likely case scenario is that we will play Dallas or Utah as the #7 seed.

[Supergirl]

I feel EXACTLY---the same way.

...and I really believe the LAKERS ---were/are the easiest match-up in the first round for the spurs...

spurs just made their life a whole lot HARDER by avoiding the lakers...

but I will be pulling hard that they show up full-force against dallas---and the refs....

irk= 30+ free throws avg---per game= at least 27 free points....


nightmare....

LOL. don't be deceived. Lakers have shut themselves down till the playoffs cause they're banged up. But trust me, come playoff time, they will turn it back up and oust anyone they face in the first round. But any one of the teams has the potential to make it tough for them, and I don't think it is as much a given that they make it out of the second round. But no way is LA losing to ANYONE in the first round. Kobe can carry his team on his own, if he has to, through 1 round...

[Thompson]

So who are we rooting for tonight? I assume we hope Utah somehow loses, so that Dallas will have #2 locked up and we might have an easier game tomorrow to move up in the standings.

[ShoogarBear]

exactly

it's very simple. If spurs beat dallas, spurs face utah. If spurs lose to dallas, spurs face dallas.

Uh, wrong. If the Spurs beat Dallas, there's still a 50% chance they play the Mavs again anyway.

Are people just not bothering to look at the chart?

[Brazil]

So Phx is winningby 15 pts tonite in the 1st, this is good right ? :)

[TVI]

I actually like sorting it this way better since tonight's games are on the left and will determine the subcategory for tomorrow.

genius!! +++

[OrEmuN]

Phoenix is having a big lead over Denver right now. Utah should be getting the W. It should look like this if the above is true. Correct me if I am wrong over the Jazz/Sun tiebreaker.

1. Lakers
2. Dallas - 54 W 27 L
3. Utah - 53 W 28 L
4. Phoenix - 53 W 28 L
5. Denver - 53 W 29 L
6. Portland - 50 W 31 L
7. San Antonio - 50 W 31 L
8. Oklahoma - 49 W 32 L

[ShoogarBear]

http://i222.photobucket.com/albums/dd21/shadyparadox/scenarios3.png

I actually like sorting it this way better since tonight's games are on the left and will determine the subcategory for tomorrow.

The Suns and Jazz win, so there are only 8 possibilities left (lines 17-24).

If Dallas wins, its Spurs (7) vs. Dallas (2).

If the Spurs win, then the Utah-Phoenix game becomes huge, as a Utah win gives them the #2, whereas a Utah loss drops them all the way to #5. The Suns have home court either way at #3 or #4, so you think they will be a little less motivated. Assuming the extremely high probability of a Portland win vs. GS, then it's probably going to be Spurs (7) vs. Utah (2).

If Utah loses, however, then it's Spurs (7) vs. Dallas (2) again.

If Portland chokes against GS, then the Spurs are in the #6 against either Dallas or Phoenix.

If I had to assign overall probabilities, I'd guess it's the following

Spurs (7) vs. Dallas (2) 50%
Spurs (7) vs. Utah (2) 40%
Spurs (6) vs. Dallas (3) 7%
Spurs (6) vs. Phoenix (3) 3%

[mudyez]

so do we go full speed against the mavs and try to get someone else? but then if we lose we end up showing our cards and it could backfire.

or do we rest the last game... let timmy and manu recover for 4 days say screw it and go balls to walls against dallas......

what do yall think?

knowing pop, he will do the same he always does: resting some major weapons...if we win...good...if we loose...hey, thats not us at full strengh and you dont know sh$% about our tactics! maybe you even can fool them, if they win with like 40 points, they may only see the black jerseys in game one of the playoffs, thinking: hey, that will be easy...and BAMMMM! here we go!

I'd do the same as the coach...we showing your cards, while beeing able to rest some of the guys on the other hand?

would utah or denver (or even LA for that matter...second 8vs1-win) be an easier matchup? I think so, but I dont see too much risk in going 100% against dallas (and maybe having to play them nonetheless.

would love to play dallas AND phoenix one more time this year!
that would be so much fun!

[mudyez]

wondering if there is a dallas board, where they think of avoiding us?

maybe they dont want to win!

even though they seem to have our number, we are a hot team right now and they might like the idea of facing portland instead! (i think, that will be easier for them)

[OrEmuN]

I am more interested in the Portland perspective. If Spurs do win against Dallas, whether they play Dallas will lie with their game result. What will they do ?

[mudyez]

I am more interested in the Portland perspective. If Spurs do win against Dallas, whether they play Dallas will lie with their game result. What will they do ?

i think they rather play den/phx instead of loosing and playing dallas

[pawe]

knowing pop, he will do the same he always does: resting some major weapons...if we win...good...if we loose...hey, thats not us at full strengh and you dont know sh$% about our tactics! maybe you even can fool them, if they win with like 40 points, they may only see the black jerseys in game one of the playoffs, thinking: hey, that will be easy...and BAMMMM! here we go!

I'd do the same as the coach...we showing your cards, while beeing able to rest some of the guys on the other hand?


I think its too late to hide their gameplan already. The team almost didnt make it to the playoffs, they had to put extra effort to hold off the other teams and they tried to avoid the 8th seed. Scouts are really smart to break down every team's offense and defensive schemes anyway.
As someone said before, its about the game to game tweaking.

[mudyez]

I think its too late to hide their gameplan already. The team almost didnt make it to the playoffs, they had to put extra effort to hold off the other teams and they tried to avoid the 8th seed. Scouts are really smart to break down every team's offense and defensive schemes anyway.
As someone said before, its about the game to game tweaking.

and he did it nonetheless :king

[kobyz]

fuck Pop! he should have tried to winning this game hard he should have played Duncan and Manu, if we gut the win we were playing PHX, a lot more easier match up.
Pop again wasn't thinking right!

[DesignatedT]

fuck Pop! he should have tried to winning this game hard he should have played Duncan and Manu, if we gut the win we were playing PHX, a lot more easier match up.
Pop again wasn't thinking right!

portland would not have lost to golden state if we would have won. they saw that we lost and ended up resting all there players just like we did.

we would have been in the exact same position... even if we would have beaten dallas we would still be the 7 and dallas would still be the 2. pop played it 100% correctly.

[kobyz]

portland would not have lost to golden state if we would have won. they saw that we lost and ended up resting all there players just like we did.

we would have been in the exact same position... even if we would have beaten dallas we would still be the 7 and dallas would still be the 2. pop played it 100% correctly.

not agree! even before our game we know that there a good chance Portland will lose to GSW: GSW is a crazy team, they just beat OKC when OKC needed the win a lot, we know that Roy and Aldridge are injures and not playing.
Spurs needed to try hard to win and then take their chances to avoid the Mavs, the chances were like 50% with a win!

[DesignatedT]

not agree! even before our game we know that there a good chance Portland will lose to GSW: GSW is a crazy team, they just beat OKC when OKC needed the win a lot, we know that Roy and Aldridge are injures and not playing.
Spurs needed to try hard to win and then take their chances to avoid the Mavs, the chances were like 50% with a win!

portland would have beaten golden state if they wanted to... did you even watch that game? im guessing you didn't... golden state had 5 players and 1 of them fouled out lol. the refs had to continue to let him play with 6 fouls and every time he fouled it was a technical foul as well. i had never seen anything like it before.

portland sat camby as well because they knew the game meant nothing... he would have played if the spurs beat dallas.

[kobyz]

portland would have beaten golden state if they wanted to... did you even watch that game? im guessing you didn't... golden state had 5 players and 1 of them fouled out lol. the refs had to continue to let him play with 6 fouls and every time he fouled it was a technical foul as well. i had never seen anything like it before.

portland sat camby as well because they knew the game meant nothing... he would have played if the spurs beat dallas.

all those things you could not know before our game, you only should know that if you win the game you have a chance to avoid the Mavs.
GSW could have beaten Portland even with Camby, also there was chances that Uta win against PHX, bottom line Pop should have try hard to win and take the chances, you don't want to feel a missed opportunity like what happened!

[DesignatedT]

all those things you could not know before our game, you only should know that if you win the game you have a chance to avoid the Mavs.
GSW could have beaten Portland even with Camby, also there was chances that Uta win against PHX, bottom line Pop should have try hard to win and take the chances, you don't want to feel a missed opportunity like what happened!

Pop and co. might prefer the matchup against the mavs.

plus, duncan(who we know can always use some rest) and manu(who has openly said that he is "exhausted") having 5 straight nights of rest going into the playoffs is a great thing for us.

[Flux451]

apples to apples

[tmtcsc]

I want Dallas. We owe them some payback. Losing to them last year was so friggin annoying. I don't care when or how it happens. 1st round or second round.

BTW, I think Portland stands a great chance of losing to Golden State. It's one thing to get a win over a tired OKC team w/o Roy and an entirely different challenge to beat a Golden State team that wants to finish the season strong and will let it all fly.

This. Very satisfying. Time to move on. Go beat Phoenix and Grant Hill's punk ass. Acting all uppety when they beat us in the regular season. Pfft.