Keys to Victory Over the Mavs in Round 1

[NameOfTheGame]

The Mavs are a team that's rolling in hot and heavy and streaking. This Mavs team is possibly the best playoff-built team Cuban has ever put together...and it will be tough for the Spurs to get past them. But it is smack-dab in the middle of the realm of possibility to do so for San Antonio.

Provided certain keys to the matchup be kept by Popovich and crew:

1. Exploit Jason Kidd

There is no better facilitator in the NBA outside of Steve Nash than this man right here. You can't give him the open three anymore, you can't afford to let him post up your smaller guard, and you can't forget to box him out, always.

But (Steve Nash comparison still relevant), there is no slower, poorer defender at the guard position (outside of Aaron Brooks. Shout-out to my boy, George Hill! M.I.P., baby!) uhh anyway, yeah, Kidd sucks at defense now. He never was Payton-level in his prime anyway. (Gary Payton was the best point guard of the past 20 years. Hands down. No competition. Payton was Chris Paul, Jason Kidd, Tyreke Evans, and George Hill's defense all rolled into one super point guard. Ridonkulous.) (Okay...I'm being more than a bit harsh on Kidd. He's a decent and savvy, veteran defender. But he just doesn't have the quickness anymore to have any business consistently containing Parker, Manu, or Hill. That's all I'm sayin'.)

Exploit. Exploit. Exploit. Make Kidd not want to play offense 'cos of how badly he's getting straight-up BURNED on defense.

2. Contain Caron Butler/Shawn Marion

Bruce Bowen made Shawn Marion comparable stat-wise to Matt Bonner for the years that the Spurs dominated the Suns in the past. Those Suns should have made it to at least one Finals. But they didn't. Why? Because Bruce Bowen contained Shawn Marion. That's why. And this time, neither Caron Butler nor Shawn Marion can be allowed to dominate.

This job will go to committee, largely led by Richard Jefferson. (The real committee defense will be reserved solely for Mr. Dirk Nowitzki.) Dick best play his ass off here. It's our best shot at stealing this series. (Yes, over-confident Spurs fans, I said "steal.")

Help me, Richard Jefferson Kenobi. You're my only hope.

3. Tim Duncan...uhh...yeah...sorry to ask you to do this again...at your age...but hey...man...dude, can you like...ummm...dominate the other teams this playoffs? One more time? For old time's sake?? Pleeeeeassse?

Yes.

4. Manu...uhhh...yeah... (ditto)

Si.

5. Popovich...uhh...yeahhhh....can you use more common sense and...yeah, we can forget about your mental-block you've shown against Dallas in the past. But this is a new time, man. You can do this. Say it with me now...COACH TO WIN. Not, not to lose. We're the San Antonio Muthafuckin' Spurs. You are a Badass. Duncan is a badass. Tony, too. And Manu is the epitome and the alpha and the omega of Baddassery.

Do it.

Prediction for the Series:

Spurs in 7.

(Jason Terry is a loser, I heard. On the streets. Of Compton. Where Dre is from. AND South Central LA. Where Jurassic Five are from. AND the LBC. Where Snoop is from. Yeah. A LOSER. Terry. Jason Terry-cloth. HA!)

[alchemist]

have any one of Tim/Tony/Manu on the court at all times.

[NameOfTheGame]

have any one of Tim/Tony/Manu on the court at all times.

Well, yeah...that's a given. It'd be hard to NOT do this.

[dbestpro]

Have 2 of the three Hill, Manu, Parker on the court at all times.

[TJastal]

Kidd is actually a pretty damn good defender at the 2. And with one of Terry/Beabois/rodent-face usually paired with him in the backcourt (and guarding opponents PG) its going to be hard to exploit a matchup that doesn't exist.

[NameOfTheGame]

Kidd is actually a pretty damn good defender at the 2. And with one of Terry/Beabois/rodent-face usually paired with him in the backcourt (and guarding opponents PG) its going to be hard to exploit a matchup that doesn't exist.

Tony can and should treat Kidd like a slightly better version of Derek Fisher. Same goes for Hill or Manu or anyone who Kidd is guarding.

I stand by my notion that Kidd's defense is atrocious. Okay, maybe not atorcious. But exploitable? Of course.

[HarlemHeat37]

Kidd's D should be exploited when he's guarding Hill or Parker, but I won't be surprised if he does a decent job on Manu..the guy still defends SGs at a very high level..he's just as quick as 2s, still has quick hands and has incredible basketball IQ..

I don't understand #2 though..containing Shawn Marion isn't a key at all, it's barely a top 10 key..the guy is a quality defender and energy guy, but his offense shouldn't be on the main concerns in this series..

[NameOfTheGame]

Kidd's D should be exploited when he's guarding Hill or Parker, but I won't be surprised if he does a decent job on Manu..the guy still defends SGs at a very high level..he's just as quick as 2s, still has quick hands and has incredible basketball IQ..

I don't understand #2 though..containing Shawn Marion isn't a key at all, it's barely a top 10 key..the guy is a quality defender and energy guy, but his offense shouldn't be on the main concerns in this series..

I was thinking Caron Butler was gonna get his numbers no matter what we do. So what's left? Shawn Marion. The X-factor, as always. But yeah, actually, after thinking about it, neither of them can be allowed to average more than 15/5 at the same time. We can't afford to win against much more production than that out of those two.

[Fpoonsie]

Keep a keen eye on Jason hanging around the perimeter...ESPECIALLY in DAL. Kidd is inexplicably gifted at getting wide open for a timely, momentum-swinging 3...and he buries 'em much more often than not.

Terry will keep firing away from distance, w/ or w/o a man in his face, Dirk loves the stop-and-pop 3, but those don't worry me NEARLY as much as Kidd's daggers.

[stretch]

But (Steve Nash comparison still relevant), there is no slower, poorer defender at the guard position (outside of Aaron Brooks. Shout-out to my boy, George Hill! M.I.P., baby!) uhh anyway, yeah, Kidd sucks at defense now.

Slow, yeah, but he is by no means a poor defender. Sure he has trouble with super quick guards, but then again, who doesnt? That's why pretty much all super quick guards are such good scorers (Parker, Brooks, Rose, CP3, etc...)

But despite his poor quickness, he still is good at bodying up and making them still work for their points, positions himself well to still be able to cut off their driving lanes, reads passing lanes as well as anyone, is a great help/team defender, and rotates very well. To say he is arguably the poorest defending PG in the NBA is ridiculous.

[ohmwrecker]

The key to beating the Mavs is how physical the Spurs will be allowed to play. If the refs are going to run up and down with their whistles in their mouths, the Spurs could be in trouble. If they are a loud to bump and shove a little the Mavs will not respond well. They seems easily flustered by physical play.
We also have to be active on offense. Move the ball. Make the Mavs work on D. We can take away their offense by sapping their energy on the defensive end.

[stretch]

The key to beating the Mavs is how physical the Spurs will be allowed to play. If the refs are going to run up and down with their whistles in their mouths, the Spurs could be in trouble. If they are a loud to bump and shove a little the Mavs will not respond well.

:cry

[Fpoonsie]

The key to beating the Mavs is how physical the Spurs will be allowed to play. If the refs are going to run up and down with their whistles in their mouths, the Spurs could be in trouble. If they are a loud to bump and shove a little the Mavs will not respond well. They seems easily flustered by physical play.
We also have to be active on offense. Move the ball. Make the Mavs work on D. We can take away their offense by sapping their energy on the defensive end.

[cringe]

[NameOfTheGame]

Slow, yeah, but he is by no means a poor defender. Sure he has trouble with super quick guards, but then again, who doesnt? That's why pretty much all super quick guards are such good scorers (Parker, Brooks, Rose, CP3, etc...)

But despite his poor quickness, he still is good at bodying up and making them still work for their points, positions himself well to still be able to cut off their driving lanes, reads passing lanes as well as anyone, is a great help/team defender, and rotates very well. To say he is arguably the poorest defending PG in the NBA is ridiculous.

That was for loquacious effect. I did say later that his defense was merely "exploitable" when Parker, Hill, and maybe Manu are guarded by Kidd.

[HarlemHeat37]

Butler doesn't really worry me TBH..

Josh Howard averaged 19 PPG on 49% in the series last year, and he ALWAYS owned the Spurs..Butler is a slightly better overall player than that version of Howard, but the matchup is different..some guys have certain matchups that they just live to exploit, and Josh Howard vs. the Spurs was one of them..I can't imagine Butler matching Howard..he's a good player, but I think Jefferson can get close to his overall output(or at least I hope)..

For me, there are a few worries with the Mavs, but if Hill is healthy, most of the individual matchups don't concern me..I'm obviously concerned with Dirk, but that one doesn't have to be said..

My main concerns are from a team perspective..the Spurs have to run them off the 3-point line, they've allowed too many open looks vs. Dallas this season..I'm also concerned about the rebounding..another minor concern will be the penetration from their guards, Hill will have to bring his A-game defensively and Parker/Mason have to hold their ground defensively..if the Spurs can consistently win 2 of those 3 battles, I'd feel pretty confident..

[coyotes_geek]

I don't have a lot of faith in the Spurs ability to crank down on dallas defensively. They've got to find ways to deny Dallas possessions and maximize the points they get on their own possessions. In other words, they've got to rebound and win the 3 point line.

[ohmwrecker]

[cringe]

I spelled it right the first time. I don't know what I was thinking there. I need more coffee.

[Fpoonsie]

Hill will have to bring his A-game defensively and Parker/Mason have to hold their ground defensively..if the Spurs can consistently win 2 of those 3 battles, I'd feel pretty confident..

Assuming/hoping that Hill's ankle re-tweak doesn't sideline him, how much burn do you think Mason will get against the Mavs?

[Fpoonsie]

I spelled it right the first time. I don't know what I was thinking there. I need more coffee.

:lol

No prob. I was just confused when you threw "flustered" out there w/, well, that.

[ohmwrecker]

:cry
I wasn't referring to any past occurrences. I'm talking about right now. This year.

[Fpoonsie]

I don't have a lot of faith in the Spurs ability to crank down on dallas defensively. They've got to find ways to deny Dallas possessions and maximize the points they get on their own possessions. In other words, they've got to rebound and win the 3 point line.

Well, if last night's game was any indication, Spurs've got this one in the bag.

:depressed

[coyotes_geek]

Well, if last night's game was any indication, Spurs've got this one in the bag.

:depressed

Yeah, 2-22 isn't going to get it done.

[ohmwrecker]

:lol

No prob. I was just confused when you threw "flustered" out there w/, well, that.

Freudian slip?

[VBM]

http://www.realbodywork.com/learn/ankle/ankle.jpg

[RiverwalkParade]

Rebound the ball. Last night was evidence that we can dominate the boards. Blair was a beast nd Dice had nine in 19 minutes. Imagine the differential when Duncan plays. This game will be won on the glass and in transition D. Dallas gets into rhthym when they can run out a few defensive boards and have enough lethal shooters that to knock down momentum swinging threes when the D is out of rotation on an offensive rebound.

Win the game on the glass, make it a halfcourt game, and force Dallas to grind these games out.

[NFGIII]

I'm in the group that wants to contain Kidd and exploit him. To me he is the head of the snake. Slow him down and don't cheat an D against and let him camp out at the 3 pt line. He needs a body on him at all times. He needs to be defended like the Spurs defended Nash in the POs. No room to breath much less get their running game untracked.

[NameOfTheGame]

Rebound the ball. Last night was evidence that we can dominate the boards. Blair was a beast nd Dice had nine in 19 minutes. Imagine the differential when Duncan plays. This game will be won on the glass and in transition D. Dallas gets into rhthym when they can run out a few defensive boards and have enough lethal shooters that to knock down momentum swinging threes when the D is out of rotation on an offensive rebound.

Win the game on the glass, make it a halfcourt game, and force Dallas to grind these games out.

Which, of course, they can't, and won't be able to, do. :toast:

[easy7]

Wear a cup around peanut head... :lmao

[Lukor]

About exploiting Kidd: Is it just me or did Parker look SLOW yesterday? He sure didnt look like the allstar he was last year...

[Fpoonsie]

About exploiting Kidd: Is it just me or did Parker look SLOW yesterday? He sure didnt look like the allstar he was last year...

I think Pop's approach to last night's game took the air out of BOTH teams. I didn't expect Tony to give it his all, so his performance last night isn't really indicative of his current level of play.

[silverblackfan]

I hope last night was Mason's last chance to prove he belongs in a series against Dallas. Case closed and whittle the players down by one more.
I think Butler is proving to be more of a problem than Marion, but that might have been the RJ effect on Marion last night.
OTOH, when Bogans played against Butler, the guy was not getting his way. Keith is big enough to keep him from backing him down or bullying by him. I am hoping Pop saw that too because he switched Keith off Butler after a few instances of that defense. About the time when the Spurs announcer noticed this. Save it for the play offs?
I think the OP underrated Kidd's defense. He still manages to bother the shot, get a hand up, or more importantly steal the ball in passing. Good hands and BB IQ == decent defender. Is he slow enough for Tony and Hill to burn him? Absolutely, but you can't sleep on him. He can defend.

[coyotes_geek]

I think Pop's approach to last night's game took the air out of BOTH teams. I didn't expect Tony to give it his all, so his performance last night isn't really indicative of his current level of play.

I agree. I'm not worried about Tony.

[baseline bum]

The Spurs have shockingly done a pretty good job on Nowitzki this season, holding him to 40% shooting on the year. They've also done pretty well on the glass, a major soft spot that has killed the Spurs against the Mavs for years. To me this series hinges on what Tony Parker can bring and whether he'll be able to exploit Kidd.

[Supergirl]

This series is going to come down to matchups, and there will be a lot of adjustments as the series progresses. But Pop excels at this. If we can contain Dirk (we can't stop him, but we can make him work and make him take bad shots) and keep controlling the pace so the Mavs don't allow any of their role players to get hot shooting, we can win this series. Transition d will be key, and this is where the Spurs have really picked it up the past 2-3 months.

[Blackjack]

Keys?

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_E8BpJEni77I/R-ptS8V2NNI/AAAAAAAABsk/E2oU6xmwMFQ/s400/TONYA.jpg

Cash; the girl's for hire . . .

[PDXSpursFan]

#1 Key: No Small Ball

[stretch]

That was for loquacious effect. I did say later that his defense was merely "exploitable" when Parker, Hill, and maybe Manu are guarded by Kidd.

meh, Hill isnt much of a concern. I can understand Parker though.

[TC-MAVS]

Sure, go ahead and Crowd Kidd. Leaved Dirk and Caron wide open or One on One. You'll regret it. This series will be short lived and you'll then have to settle for Missions and Silver Star games. Ta Ta

[DAF86]

Start: Hill, Manu, RJ, Dice, Duncan

Bring off the bench: Tony, Bonner, Blair.

Hill on Kidd, Manu on Marion, RJ on Butler, Dice on Dirk, Tim on Brendan

Have two of the big three at all times and Two of Hill, Tony and Manu at all times too. No small ball.

Go with the hot hand: Don't bench a player that is having a good stretch just to stick with your pre-determined rotation.

Don't put a wing on Dirk like we always do, you know that 90% of the time Dirk is going to take a jumper, make him take it over a taller guy.

Grab the defensive rebounds. Make the open threes. :D

[RiverwalkParade]

score the most points

[ZB 512]

Your post lost some credibility when you stated that Jason Kidd is a bad defender. You havent watched many Mavs games this year have you?

[spursfaninla]

The Spurs have shockingly done a pretty good job on Nowitzki this season, holding him to 40% shooting on the year. They've also done pretty well on the glass, a major soft spot that has killed the Spurs against the Mavs for years. To me this series hinges on what Tony Parker can bring and whether he'll be able to exploit Kidd.

How we defend Dirk will be very important.

fact 1: according to 82games, Dirk shoots 85% jumpers at .47%...that is good for a jump shooter, but the Spurs should be able to win with him doing that, rather than shooting the 57% he gets close, plus getting to the line.

Don't foul. Don't put guys on him that allow him to drive too much.

Fact 2: Dallas has some good shooters who should not be left alone to double dirk too much.

example a: Kidd shoots most of his points from jump shots too, but hits at 57% (adjusted for 3's. ) That leads the team. He is the most dangerous shooter on the team, and his jump shot is more accurate than his close shot. Crowd him and make him drive.

example b: marion gets almost half of his points driving to the basket, and is MUCH more accurate doing so (46% shots close, 57% made) compared to his jump shot (43% jump shots at 38% accuracy). Give marion tons of room so that he can't drive, and if you lay off him, crowd the lane so he can't roll to the basket. That is basically his whole game.

Butler: good jump shooter, about equal to dirk at 47%, shooting about 85% jump shots. who mostly does that. He can't make a close shot. Crowd him.

Terry: excellent jump shooter at almost 49%, shoots 85% of his shots as jump shots. When he does drive, makes them at a high percentage.

Beaubois: very dangerous shooter and driver, but minor player who typically scores only 7pts a game. Question: will they go to him if we play off of him?

Haywood: terrible jump shooter. Dangerous rebounder and post player.

Damp: well rounded offensively but they don't give him the ball much.

Conclusion: Dallas has the jump shooting to kill us if we swarm dirk and leave open other shooters. I think we are better off really trying to live with Dirk at least half of the time, and switch up the defense in the 4th.

[Mr.Robinson]

Kidd's D should be exploited when he's guarding Hill or Parker, but I won't be surprised if he does a decent job on Manu..the guy still defends SGs at a very high level..he's just as quick as 2s, still has quick hands and has incredible basketball IQ..

I don't understand #2 though..containing Shawn Marion isn't a key at all, it's barely a top 10 key..the guy is a quality defender and energy guy, but his offense shouldn't be on the main concerns in this series..

Manu is going crazy this series. I just know it. I expect 25/6/5 from him.

[DPG21920]

CG is correct. Rebounding and 3 PT shooting is going to be crucial. Win the boards and shoot well from 3, and you will have a good chance to win.

I think Hill and RJ will play a big role if the Spurs are to win. As I have said before, those are two guys that give the Spurs a dimension they have not had against the Mavs in recent years. That could pay huge dividends if they play well.

3PT shooting is important because both teams have big men that can pass and both teams have excellent 3 point shooters. I wonder if the Spurs are going to try and guard Dirk straight up one on one for the most part or swarm him? I wonder if the Mavs will double Duncan? Doubling Duncan or Dirk does not sound like a smart idea because of their ability to pass and the ability of both teams to hit 3's.

I for one think Kidd will guard RJ. I can see Caron on Manu, Marion on Parker and Kidd on RJ. At least that makes some sense to me.

[DPG21920]

Haywood and Damp are a lot to throw at Tim. The Mavs are a great rebounding team and if the Spurs don't rebound, they will have no chance to win.

[MannyIsGod]

Eh I think this is overanalysis at its best.

The Spurs need consistency from their big three and meaningful contributions from their bench to win. Containment defense on Dirk would be nice too. He can score 25 a game but don't let him go off for 45 a game.

I bet if those things happen the Spurs win no matter how many they score on Jason Kidd or how many Marion scores.

[MannyIsGod]

BTW, 3 point shooting is always important for the Spurs. They virtually always lose when they shoot poorly from 3. This team has for quite some time lived and died by that facet of the game.

[sefant77]

Butler doesn't really worry me TBH..

Josh Howard averaged 19 PPG on 49% in the series last year, and he ALWAYS owned the Spurs..Butler is a slightly better overall player than that version of Howard, but the matchup is different..some guys have certain matchups that they just live to exploit, and Josh Howard vs. the Spurs was one of them..I can't imagine Butler matching Howard..he's a good player, but I think Jefferson can get close to his overall output(or at least I hope)..



Anyone in Dallas takes Butler over Howard. Howard was the better scorer / isoplayer but Butler is a better package. Way more bb iq and passing skills.

And thats the thing with defending Dirk, the ball movement of Dallas was almost perfect the last games (before yesterday). Double Dirk and he will pass out and Butler/Kidd/Terry gonna find the man for the open three or Dampwood/Marion under the basket. Dont double Dirk and you give him the jumper in his comfort zone. Thats not 2007 anymore where 2-3 players jumped on Dirk and Howard and Harris had no idea what to do with the ball...

Kidd is not a bad defender. He is one of the smartest help defenders, great stealer and versatile and strong that you can put him against 6-7 SF and he doesnt get burned and you can put Marion on smaller guys etc. He just cant defend the grasshopper pgs anymore but he also doesnt play them 1:1 anymore.

One key for the Spurs is if Parker and Hill can go full speed 4 quarters. I expect that RC gonna make them run with Terry/Roddy/Barea.

[TD 21]

Butler doesn't really worry me TBH..

Josh Howard averaged 19 PPG on 49% in the series last year, and he ALWAYS owned the Spurs..Butler is a slightly better overall player than that version of Howard, but the matchup is different..some guys have certain matchups that they just live to exploit, and Josh Howard vs. the Spurs was one of them..I can't imagine Butler matching Howard..he's a good player, but I think Jefferson can get close to his overall output(or at least I hope)..

For me, there are a few worries with the Mavs, but if Hill is healthy, most of the individual matchups don't concern me..I'm obviously concerned with Dirk, but that one doesn't have to be said..

My main concerns are from a team perspective..the Spurs have to run them off the 3-point line, they've allowed too many open looks vs. Dallas this season..I'm also concerned about the rebounding..another minor concern will be the penetration from their guards, Hill will have to bring his A-game defensively and Parker/Mason have to hold their ground defensively..if the Spurs can consistently win 2 of those 3 battles, I'd feel pretty confident..

I agree with most of this except the part in bold. The Spurs are 3rd in rebounding differential, the Mavs are 24th. Since the trade, I'm fairly certain they're not much better a rebounding team than they were before.

I'm more worried about Hill not being able to move laterally well enough to adequately defend Terry and Barea. If he can't do that, the Spurs really don't have anyone else who can, save for maybe Parker who, with far less offensive responsibility than last year, should be able to do a decent job in this regard. Mason has no chance at guarding anyone in this series, unless Stevenson makes a cameo. Butler and Kidd will bully him in the post and Terry, Barea and (if he plays) Beaubois will run circles around him.

I'm concerned with Pop foolishly doubling Nowitzki, which he shouldn't do. If this guy can score 30+ and beat the Spurs playing one on one, fine. But don't give up the usual barrage of open looks the Spurs do against the Mavs. This is how they've lost in the past. If they do double (and they will, because Pop is predictable and has a defeatist attitude), they can't help off of Terry and Kidd at all costs.

[ManuTastic]

If I recall, it's the transition D that has to be sharp against Dallas. Dirk and Terry go on their quick-shot act in the broken floor, that's how they get those 10-0 runs. So who guard Dirk?

[silverblk mystix]

Dallas lost it's best weapon ....when Finley defected..

so this year it will be 5 on 5 ---instead of 6 on 4 in favor of dallas...

THAT was basically all the spurs needed to beat this team....done.

Spurs in 6

[Brazil]

I think one of the key will be how Hill will respond at his first PO serie with significant responsabilities on his shoulder. He is a second year, I understand why the team wants him to start but it's a lot of pressure for a young player.

[senorglory]

What is Butler's m.o.? I didn't have the opportunity to watch many Wizards games. Anyone know this dude's tendencies?

[Mixability]

give dirk his 25-30, manhandle the rest. dont be stupid and play SPURS ball.