Spurs vs. Mavs Series Previews

[duncan228]

Previews of the 8 first-round NBA playoff series (http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=txplayoffpreviewcapsul)
Brian Mahoney

No. 2 DALLAS MAVERICKS (55-27) vs. No. 7 SAN ANTONIO SPURS (50-32).

Season series: Mavericks, 3-1. Little can be determined from this year’s series, because the teams have never really seen each other at full strength. The first three meetings came before the Mavericks acquired Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood in February, and the last one came on the final night of the season, when the Spurs rested Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili. Dallas won that game to set up this series.

Storyline: Second straight playoff meeting and third in five years for the division rivals from Texas. The Mavericks won both of them, taking a thrilling seven-game series in 2006 on their way to the NBA finals, then knocking off an injury-weakened San Antonio team last year.

Key matchup I: Dirk Nowitzki vs. Tim Duncan. Neither team had any success stopping the All-Star forwards during the regular season. Duncan averaged 26.5 points and 13 rebounds in two games, while Nowitzki had a 41-point night among his 28.8 points per game.

Key matchup II: Butler vs. Ginobili. Ginobili, who missed last year’s series because of injury, carried the Spurs late in the season by playing sensational basketball after moving into the lineup when Parker was injured. Butler, a natural small forward serving as a big guard since his move to Dallas, could present matchup problems because of his size and strength.

X-factor: Richard Jefferson. He didn’t play nearly as well as the Spurs would have hoped after acquiring him last summer, but he had some good nights against the Mavs. He had a 29-point game and was in double figures in two other meetings. San Antonio needs him to play that well here against a more athletic team.

Prediction: Spurs in 7.

[Libri]

X-factor: Richard Jefferson. He didn’t play nearly as well as the Spurs would have hoped after acquiring him last summer, but he had some good nights against the Mavs. He had a 29-point game and was in double figures in two other meetings. San Antonio needs him to play that well here against a more athletic team.I'm going with TP being the X-factor. During this season, Tony played two games against Dallas and averaged 18.5 pts. I'm hoping that he'll be able to bring an offensive punch from the bench.

[mando6599]

Key matchup I: Dirk Nowitzki vs. Tim Duncan. Neither team had any success stopping the All-Star forwards during the regular season. Duncan averaged 26.5 points and 13 rebounds in two games, while Nowitzki had a 41-point night among his 28.8 points per game.

The problem with this "matchup" is that it rarely happens. Pop doesn't like pulling Duncan out that far from the basket. We'll see defense by committee on Dirk as we always have.

[Strike]

I pretty much agree with the preview. I also agree with Spurs winning in 7. I think the teams are closer than the series and records show.

[duncan228]

Western Conference Series Previews (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/britt_robson/04/15/west.previews/index.html)
Britt Robson
SI.com

#2 Mavericks (55-27) vs. #7 Spurs (50-32)

Tim Duncan's Spurs couldn't have given anymore this season, which is why 50 wins and the seventh seed -- their worst showing of the Duncan-Gregg Popovich era -- is so troublesome. Hope lingers that San Antonio's big three of Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker will hoard enough health and muscle memory for one last hurrah, but the Mavs are grizzled and deep enough to be a formidable deterrent. Ironically, San Antonio posted better performances than Dallas in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency, and according to basketball-reference.com, the Spurs should be 55-27 and the Mavs 49-33 -- almost the opposite of their actual record. Does that mean their fortunes are due for a reversal, or that the Mavs are simply better at pulling out close games?

Key Matchup

The frontcourts. Dallas can put a pair of 7-footers -- Brendan Haywood and Dirk Nowitzki -- at center and power forward and still go big (6-11 Erick Dampier) or small (6-7 Shawn Marion) with quality replacements. San Antonio must supplement the 6-11 Duncan with a bevy of undersized options, including 6-9 Antonio McDyess, 6-7 rookie Dejuan Blair and 6-10 three-point specialist Matt Bonner. The Spurs must either spread the floor for small-ball or saddle Duncan with the burden of being both the low-post bulwark on D and the finesse scorer in the paint.

X-Factor

Mavericks: Bench stars. In addition to their ability to supersize their frontcourt, the Mavs can install one or two of their pocket jet-packs -- Jason Terry, J.J. Barea, Rodrigue Beaubois -- off the bench into the backcourt and try to run the Spurs out of the building, especially since Parker suffers from plantar fasciitis and Hill has a bum ankle.

Spurs: Ginobili. Anyone who watched Ginobili become an elite playmaker when Tony Parker and then George Hill went down with injuries understands why the Spurs rewarded him with a three-year deal -- a deal that's probably one season too long. Letting Manu walk in free agency is throwing in the towel on this roster; and with the erosion of Duncan's endurance and Parker's quickness, he remains the most likely catalyst for a Spurs upset in this series.

Bottom Line

The Spurs are proud and valiant, but the Mavs are versatile and deep. Nowitzki was the league's third-most prolific crunch-time scorer (http://www.82games.com/0910/CSORT11.HTM) this season, behind only LeBron and Kobe. Bringing in three former Wizards at the trade deadline helped to lengthen the pecking order and improve team chemistry in one fell swoop. A Spurs triumph over the best roster Mark Cuban can buy would be a beautiful coda and grace note on San Antonio's fading quasi-dynasty. Dallas in six.

[VBM]

I pretty much agree with the preview. I also agree with Spurs winning in 7. I think the teams are closer than the series and records show.

I think we'll have to finish this in 6. I don't like the idea of a Game 7 in Dallas (even if we did take out New Orleans in the same situation a couple years ago).

[duncan228]

West preview: Who should win? (http://www.foxnews.com/sports/2010/04/15/west-preview-win/)
FoxSports

MAVERICKS (2) VS. SPURS (7)

Why Dallas should win.

Dirk Nowitzki presents a huge matchup problem for the Spurs. Richard Jefferson is too small, Antonio McDyess is too old and immobile, Matt Bonner is too slow, and Tim Duncan would be far removed from his comfort zone if Nowitzki received the ball in the neighborhood of the 3-point line.

Caron Butler is a solid 2-way player, who will give either Jefferson or Manu Ginobili fits.

Jason Kidd has always been a masterful organizer and has recently developed a dead-eye 3-point shot. He's big and strong enough to abuse either Tony Parker or George Hill in the low post.

In Erick Dampier and Brendan Haywood, the Mavs have a pair of defense-minded bangers in the middle. They can abuse McDyess and Bonner and have Tim Duncan aching and gasping for breath by the fourth quarter.

Shawn Marion has lost a step, but has at long last accepted being a role player. As such, he can fill in the empty spaces at both ends of the court and make a significant difference in close ball games.

With Jason Terry and J.J. Barea, Dallas can bring explosive scorers off the bench.

The Mavs have too much firepower and too much mass at the center spot.

Why San Antonio could win.

Ginobili is healthy and his on-target jumpers set up his drives. He also has the quickest last step in the league and cannot be adequately defended by any one of the Mavs -- except perhaps J-Kidd.

If Tim Duncan can hit his overrated off-the-glass jumpers with any degree of regularity, he'll force Dampier/Haywood to come out and play defense in no-man's land.

Parker can zip past anybody the Mavs front him with -- and if his jumpers are also falling, SA's offense becomes extremely versatile.

Jefferson has the capability of recapturing the rapture of his salad days with the Nets -- running, pulling-and-popping, executing tricky drives, and playing ace defense.

Hill has become a vastly underrated performer, who can do just about anything that Pop asks of him.

McDyess is an old warhorse who can still plug mid-range jumpers.

Bonner's long-range marksmanship can spread the floor and give TD room to operate in the low post.

If they can hit their perimeter shots and make precise defensive rotations, the Spurs will be tough to beat.

Meanwhile, Nowitzki and Terry have yet to prove that they can rise to the occasion in tightly-fought playoff games against high-quality opponents.

Most importantly, the clutch play of Duncan and Ginobili should never be underestimated.

Despite the vast difference in the respective seeds of these two teams, this should be an extremely combative and fascinating series.

[Fpoonsie]

I still don't see any way the Spurs pull this off if it goes 7. Spurs need to put this thing away in 6 or less (preferably less, seeing as how my anti-anxiety meds are running low) if they wanna make it to tha 2nd round.

[DPG21920]

West preview: Who should win? (http://www.foxnews.com/sports/2010/04/15/west-preview-win/)
FoxSports

MAVERICKS (2) VS. SPURS (7)

Why Dallas should win.

Dirk Nowitzki presents a huge matchup problem for the Spurs. Richard Jefferson is too small, Antonio McDyess is too old and immobile, Matt Bonner is too slow, and Tim Duncan would be far removed from his comfort zone if Nowitzki received the ball in the neighborhood of the 3-point line.

Caron Butler is a solid 2-way player, who will give either Jefferson or Manu Ginobili fits.

Jason Kidd has always been a masterful organizer and has recently developed a dead-eye 3-point shot. He's big and strong enough to abuse either Tony Parker or George Hill in the low post.

In Erick Dampier and Brendan Haywood, the Mavs have a pair of defense-minded bangers in the middle. They can abuse McDyess and Bonner and have Tim Duncan aching and gasping for breath by the fourth quarter.

Shawn Marion has lost a step, but has at long last accepted being a role player. As such, he can fill in the empty spaces at both ends of the court and make a significant difference in close ball games.

With Jason Terry and J.J. Barea, Dallas can bring explosive scorers off the bench.

The Mavs have too much firepower and too much mass at the center spot.

Why San Antonio could win.

Ginobili is healthy and his on-target jumpers set up his drives. He also has the quickest last step in the league and cannot be adequately defended by any one of the Mavs -- except perhaps J-Kidd.

If Tim Duncan can hit his overrated off-the-glass jumpers with any degree of regularity, he'll force Dampier/Haywood to come out and play defense in no-man's land.

Parker can zip past anybody the Mavs front him with -- and if his jumpers are also falling, SA's offense becomes extremely versatile.

Jefferson has the capability of recapturing the rapture of his salad days with the Nets -- running, pulling-and-popping, executing tricky drives, and playing ace defense.

Hill has become a vastly underrated performer, who can do just about anything that Pop asks of him.

McDyess is an old warhorse who can still plug mid-range jumpers.

Bonner's long-range marksmanship can spread the floor and give TD room to operate in the low post.

If they can hit their perimeter shots and make precise defensive rotations, the Spurs will be tough to beat.

Meanwhile, Nowitzki and Terry have yet to prove that they can rise to the occasion in tightly-fought playoff games against high-quality opponents.

Most importantly, the clutch play of Duncan and Ginobili should never be underestimated.

Despite the vast difference in the respective seeds of these two teams, this should be an extremely combative and fascinating series.

Kidd never abuses TP down low.

[m33p0]

hey... we're healthy.

[LakerHater]

http://209.160.24.97/ds_img_direct.php?i=spursmavsii.gif&t=8&d=1fjdcjav7c&x=360&y=480&l1=169&l2=61

I cant wait, its gonna be fun!

[Amuseddaysleeper]

hey... we're healthy.

http://blogs.suntimes.com/sportsprose/george-hill-naked.jpg

Almost.