Dave Berri picks Spurs in 7

[Seventyniner]

http://dberri.wordpress.com/2010/04/15/my-first-round-playoff-forecast-for-truehoop/

Another stathead picks the Spurs. This guy won the TrueHoop Stat Geek Smackdown last year for the most accurate predictions overall.

http://dberri.wordpress.com/2009/06/16/winning-the-truehoop-stat-geek-smackdown/

He comments here that the winners for each of the last three years have basically only taken two things into account: efficiency differential (Spurs 2nd in the WC and 4th in the NBA, Mavs 8th in the WC and 12th in the NBA) and homecourt advantage. Since these contradict in this case, it's probably going to be a very close series. Berri and Hollinger think that the efficiency disparity will win out.

[Amarelooms]

lol well there you go...Spurs on to round 2 :elephant

[Mark in Austin]

Picking playoff games is really not a very good test of a model or someone’s analytical skills. As I have been saying all along (see HERE and HERE and HERE), a seven game series is too short for predictions to be made with perfect accuracy. In other words, the best model can be done in by the randomness of a small sample.

This. What Hollinger never seems to acknowledge - and why Winston's post analyzing SA's best lineups is so weak when he includes lineups that have been on the floor together for only 25 minutes the entire season.

[cd98]

I don't see the Spurs winning in Dallas on a game 7. If they do win it will be in 6. And game 1 victory would be huge.

[Solid D]

Point Diff: SA 4th (+5.08), DAL 12th (+2.72)

FG%: SA 6th (.473), DAL 13th (.464)

Opp FG%: SA 12th (.452), DAL 15th (.457)

3-PT %: DAL 5th (.372), SA 11th (.358)

Opp 3-PT %: SA 8th (.343), DAL 11th (.347)

FT%: DAL 1st (.816) 1,526-1,870 , SA 24th (.740) 1,458-1,969
(SA averages 1.3 more FTs/Game than DAL, but DAL makes 1 more FT/Game than SA)

Now throw most of the stats out for this series. It should be tense and tight.

[MADTOBY]

spurs got this bitch in 6

[spurtech09]

yeah spurs in 6 no doubt....or 5 lol.....ok 5

[StrangeCheez]

Spurs in 3