Top Ten Keys - Spurs vs. Mavs 2010 Playoff Preview

[timvp]

Another playoff run for the Spurs, another showdown with the Mavericks. After last year's destruction that saw Dallas easily win the series in five games, revenge would definitely be sweet.

Unfortunately, revenge won't be easy. Outside of the Lakers, no other team in the Western Conference boasts as many challenging matchups for San Antonio -- as has been seen the last two times the Spurs took on the Mavs in the playoffs. Even worse, the Mavs seem to be the world's most comfortable basketball team within the confines of the AT&T Center.

Compared to last postseason's squad, this Spurs team is more talented, deeper, more explosive and, most importantly, healthier. That said, a number of issues have plagued San Antonio this season, most prominently chemistry and consistency on both ends of the court. Truthfully, the Spurs are still a work in progress.

How can the Spurs get their revenge? Here are timvp's top ten keys.

10. George Hill's Health
George Hill has become an indispensable part of this team. He's the starting point guard and easily the fourth best player on the Spurs. As the season progressed and Hill's role grew, he flourished while illustrating an exciting amount of potential.

But after stepping on a cameraman and tweaking his injured ankle on the last day of the regular season, Hill enters the playoffs with a limp. If he's not able to perform near 100%, that would be a crippling blow for the Spurs. His ability to guard multiple positions, run the floor, attack weak defenders and hit three-pointers has allowed those around him to thrive -- especially Manu Ginobili.

9. Tony Parker vs. Jason Terry
Both teams have quality bench players but the battle of the benches basically comes down to Tony Parker and Jason Terry. Parker is the better player on paper but it's been a difficult season for the French point guard due to injuries, a lack of cohesion with his new teammates, and sloppy and sometimes unfocused play. Additionally, Parker's role as the bench x-factor is in its infancy.

On the other hand, Terry knows how to perform off the bench. He seemingly always drains the big shot when facing off against San Antonio. Even though Dallas has a stacked starting lineup, don't be surprised if it's Terry who takes the most important shots.

8. Tim Duncan and Foul Trouble
Though he's coming off the least foul-prone regular season of his career, you can throw out that statistic when Tim Duncan goes up against the Mavs. Simply put, the Mavs are constructed perfectly to get Duncan in foul trouble. They have a pair of bruising centers to be physical with Duncan. Their offense, which is built around isolation plays and pick-and-roll plays, puts Duncan in awkward positions on the court. Oh and that Dirk Nowitzki guy isn't exactly an easy opponent for Duncan to defend.

7. Shooters Stepping Up
Since the beginning of the Tim Duncan Era, the front office has made it a point to surround Duncan with three-point shooters. Currently, however, outside shooting isn't something the Spurs can rely on going into the playoffs.

Hill is probably the team's best three-point shooter right now … but he's hurting. Ginobili is a good three-point shooter but he is classified more as "streaky" than "dead-eye". Matt Bonner and Roger Mason, Jr. can shoot but they both monumentally struggled last year against the Mavs in the playoffs (and they just finished going a combined 0-for-8 from three-point range against Dallas on Wednesday). Richard Jefferson shot 22.8% on three-pointers after the All-Star break and Keith Bogans is Keith Bogans.

To win this series, the Spurs need at least two or three shooters to step up and knock down shots from deep. We'll see if that is too much to ask.

6. Transition Defense
Just like the Spurs, the Mavs are different than the team from last year's playoffs. With the additions of Shawn Marion, Caron Butler and Roddy Beaubois, Dallas can get out and run. Add the ageless Jason Kidd to the mix, who just might be the best fast-breaking point guard of all-time, and there's little doubt that the coaching staff will make transition defense a top priority.

Transition defense is especially important with regard to Marion. As the Spurs have witnessed firsthand, stout transition defense can keep Marion under control.

5. Limiting Turnovers
Turnovers have been an unexpected bugaboo for the Spurs this season. Last year, the Spurs turned it over fewer times than any team in the NBA. This year, nine teams had fewer turnovers. Since the All-Star break, the Spurs have only lost one time in games in which they've finished with less turnovers than their opponent.

The previous key makes this key even more vital. If the Spurs can limit their turnovers, that will go a long ways toward making sure the Mavs don't get easy buckets in transition.

4. Make Dirk Work
Teams that have had success against the Mavs in the playoffs have done so in large part due to taking Dirk Nowitzki out of his comfort zones. He's not going to be stopped completely but the Mavs are most dangerous when Nowitzki is free to do what he wants.

The bad news is the Spurs still lack anything resembling a Dirk stopper. Antonio McDyess has too many miles on the odometer, DeJuan Blair lacks size and is foul prone, Matt Bonner isn't athletic enough, Richard Jefferson tends to be undisciplined and soft, Keith Bogans is way too small and Tim Duncan is too immobile. The coaching staff is going to have to be inventive with gimmicky schemes to overcome the gaping hole in the personnel.

3. Pop and Common Sense
In 2006 and 2009, Pop made glaring mistakes in the playoffs against the Mavs. Too much small ball doomed the Spurs in 2006; Pop overreacted to the mismatches and had the Spurs playing a then uncharted brand of basketball. Last postseason, Pop inexplicably buried Hill on the bench to begin the series. Additionally, Pop's rotations neglected the defensive end of the court until it was too late.

The teams are too evenly matched for Pop to author another blunder and the Spurs come out on top. Rather than trying to be the hero, Pop needs to rely on common sense. Don't try to fit a square peg (a struggling player) into a round hole (playing time). Don't overreact to matchups that don't favor the Spurs (See: Nowitzki, Dirk). Don't be afraid to play those who have performed well all season (See: Blair, DeJuan). In other words, don't out-think things.

2. Rebounding
The one overriding aspect that has tipped the balance of power in Dallas' favor in recent years is rebounding. In the 2006 series, the Mavs outrebounded the Spurs in all seven games. The 2009 series saw the Mavs outrebound the Spurs in every game except for one: Game 2, the sole contest the Spurs won.

Small ball is the most obvious culprit, though the Mavs having superior rebounders at the swingman positions has also been a leading reason. This year, the Spurs can contend on the glass -- but the coaching staff must resist small ball as much as possible, find minutes for Blair and urge each and every player to gang rebound. (By the way, if Jefferson is searching for an area where he can most help, rebounding is the answer.)

1. Manu Ginobili
Without question the absolute top key for the Spurs in this forthcoming series against the Mavs is the play of Manu Ginobili. Since the All-Star break, the Spurs have been Ginobili's team. If he can be at the top of his game, the Spurs will be a difficult out in the playoffs -- for any team in the league.

Ginobili's importance is magnified against Dallas. First of all, the Mavs have the post-defenders and help-defenders to slow Duncan in the low block. Secondly, Parker is still rounding into form following his hand injury. Last but not least is the fact that the Mavs don't truly have a defender who should have much success against Ginobili. It just so happens that Dallas' biggest weakness defensively plays right into Ginobili's hands. Hopefully he's ready to take advantage and coldly serve the revenge.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

If Ginobili can be the guy we've seen recently Mavs are gonna fuckin meet the mummy

[MaNu4Tres]

Number 3 is the one I'm most concerned with.

[ElNono]

Good read and goes straight into my point on the other thread. This series more than anything is about Manu. If he's at the top of his game, we should be able to get this.

[spursfaninla]

What do you think about MAVFAN talking about their kobe-stopper Marion? Or, they alternately claim that Kidd is a good defender at sg?

I wonder at marion being able to defend a pg if Kidd is guarding the sg...marion is too old now to keep up.

[BillMc]

George Hill's health is the one that worries me. Man he's become important fast....

[Phenomanul]

I'm calling it now... Terry, Caron, and Erika will dish out cheap shots at Ginobili...

[Cane]

Yea, Hill's health is also one of the major concerns for me. Solid list; imo the Spurs seem to have more talent and chemistry than their Dallas counterparts but they can't afford to slack off.

[Phenomanul]

Great assessment BTW... timvp (in prophet mode) has spoken!

Spurs 4 - Mavs 2

[Borosai]

A tough series will make advancing that much sweeter. Let's hope the Spurs bring their best effort out there unlike last year.

[TDMVPDPOY]

pop better utilize Hill this fkn series, not like last season where he didnt even get to play against the mavs,


i hope duncan detours alot cause the other players need to get theres, we all know duncan will get his, its just a matter when or workin himself into the game/series...RJ, HILL input is important where the extra scoring will come from.

im still not sure on mcdyness or even bonner for this series....


go hard or go home

[spursfaninla]

Yea, Hill's health is also one of the major concerns for me. Solid list; imo the Spurs seem to have more talent and chemistry than their Dallas counterparts but they can't afford to slack off.

I find this a curious statement to say, that dallas has less talent.

Sure, we have 3 superior players in Manu, Duncan, and parker (in that order). Sure, we have good players in Hill, blair, RJ.

But they match us talent for talent easily.
Duncan-dirk.
Tony-kidd.
Manu-terry.
blair-haywood.
Hill-butler
rj-marion
dice-dampier

who is left on either side? Well, we have bonner and temple, but, if anything, dallas more good players than we do, with beaubois and jj (b-used up all the vowels) as possible significant contributors. I don't know if we can count on bonner. I hope we dont see mason this play offs.

[TDMVPDPOY]

who is left on either side? Well, we have bonner and temple, but, if anything, dallas more good players than we do, with beaubois and jj (b-used up all the vowels) as possible significant contributors. I don't know if we can count on bonner. I hope we dont see mason this play offs.

is temple eligible for playoff roster?

[quentin_compson]

It's going to be a hard fought series. I doubt it will be decided in less than six games.

Holding Nowitzki in check will be the key defensively. I guess Dice, Bonner and RJ will be taking turns against him. I don't see Blair as a good option against Nowitzki.

And yeah, three-point shooting is an area of concern right now. Hopefully, either Bonner or Mason Jr. will step it up.

[spursfaninla]

yes, temple can play for us. The eligibility issue is only for players who were with teams already.

[Spursfanfromafar]

LJ timvp Ellis had accurately predicted last year's match-up in the playoffs. Huge respect!

I agree with all the 10 keys...and think that Key No 1 will determine the Spurs' victory. If Manu plays like Manu should; the Mavs will a lot on their plate.

4-2 for the Spurs

[Libri]

7. Shooters Stepping Up
Since the beginning of the Tim Duncan Era, the front office has made it a point to surround Duncan with three-point shooters. Currently, however, outside shooting isn't something the Spurs can rely on going into the playoffs.

Hill is probably the team's best three-point shooter right now … but he's hurting. Ginobili is a good three-point shooter but he is classified more as "streaky" than "dead-eye". Matt Bonner and Roger Mason, Jr. can shoot but they both monumentally struggled last year against the Mavs in the playoffs (and they just finished going a combined 0-for-8 from three-point range against Dallas on Wednesday). Richard Jefferson shot 22.8% on three-pointers after the All-Star break and Keith Bogans is Keith Bogans.

To win this series, the Spurs need at least two or three shooters to step up and knock down shots from deep. We'll see if that is too much to ask.I took a look at the stats regarding the 3-point shooting. In March the team shot .370 but then took a nose dive in April with .314. Unfortunately, the Spurs are going through a tough stretch from the behind the arc and Mason, whose specialty supposed to be the 3-point shot, is shooting 26% in April. Since Manu has the most attempts per game, I think that he will take most of the load. Hopefully Bonner, who is second in 3-point attempts, will step up and help.

[Whisky Dog]

At least a couple of the guys on the ticket in Dallas were picking the Spurs due to the Mavs tendency to be extremely inconsistent and the Ginobili factor.

[senorglory]

I don't know whose health is the greatest issue: Parker; Hill; or Duncan. None of them are ready for the first round. Is McDyess healthy? Why has his tank seemed empty of late? God lord this team makes me feel like a hypochondriac with all the worrying over health I do leading up to the playoffs.

A healthy big 3 plus a healthy Hill and concerns 1 to 10 take care of themselves, I think. Ginobili + gimpy Duncan + dead legged and injured shooting handed Parker + ankle sprained playoff newb Hill = ? Who knows.

[polandprzem]

Other then transition defense this year I think the most important thing will be to defend the screens.
Esp. those deadly with Terry and Dirk. Both can drive and both can shoot and with spurs matchup problems it will be important if to switch or not? Anyway taht's might not be enough.

x-factor Butler just like Josh previously

Spurs myust overcome so many problems that it is not funny.


To us other then Manu and Tony play was a play of George. The only guy that can fill the the big holes in spurs struggles against mavs.

Transition O and D, defending quick guards (also can be switched on bigger guys) and ofcourse 3pointers.
Other then him we have unsure Bonner and Manu day-game-shape.

Mason can explode in one game, and Bogand like LJ said is Bogans.

The guy we need to step up is RJ - esp. with rebounding and hitting those corner treys not mentioning his drives and midrange offscreen jumpers.


We are in trouble

and that vulcano made a dark day today

[Blackjack]

Nice writeup. :tu

To me it comes down to a few simple things:

The Big 3 - Manu's play is paramount to the Spurs' success but Tim and Tony have to come along for the ride. The Spurs don't need them to play above their heads but they've got to have them playing to their current potential; which is relative to where they are in their career and the form they're currently in physically.

Rebounding - As you mentioned, this will prove vital. For all intents and puposes you can throw the Spurs' rebounding numbers out the window. With Nowitzki pulling bigs away from the basket and forcing the inevitable bouts of small ball, the defensive glass is left vulnerable. The Spurs have been the benchmark for years when it comes to defensive rebounding but with the Mavs perimeter players ability to thrive with the mid-range shots and the scrambling that ensues from their pick-and-roll/pick-and-pop game, like I said before ... throw the numbers out the window. Haywood, Dampier, Nowitzki, Marion, Butler and Kidd are bound to get some extra possessions, how many and when they get them could decide games and potentially the series.

Transition Defense - Jason Kidd is maybe the best I've ever seen on the break and igniting it. And though he's slowed, the ball still moves faster than the man; the Spurs have to get back at all costs, take care of the ball, and it'd be wise to jam the passer whenever possible. You can't let this team get going downhill, as they tend to come in waves when they're out in the open court; finishing at both the rim and on the perimeter in transition. The Spurs have to be mindful of the three point line with Nowitzki and Terry in transition.

Free Throw Line - No, this isn't about a conspiracy, it's about logic: with the Mavs, they're as close as you get to 'free'. What the Spurs have been to defensive rebounding the Mavs have been at the foul line. Send 'em there ... and they're gonna cash in more times than not. But it's not only about the points it's about how they get them and the ramifications of giving them up. You can really tie this in with the rebounding because a lot of the same things that make the Spurs vulnerable there can be tied to here: if you're scrambling on defense and switching on the pick and roll you're not only susceptible to the carom but also foul. The Mavs don't need any help putting points on the board and putting them in the penalty is a recipe for disaster. But, maybe even more important, you can't have The Big Fundamental on the bench; he's often asked to protect the rim on his own, given Pop's propensity for small ball, so the coaching staff has to limit going to that well. But when they do resort to it, the perimeter defense has to be on a string and prevent the Mavs from getting to the middle. You need Tim to protect the rim, his teammates have to protect him; it'd be nice to see the Mavs on their heels from a dogged Spurs' attack that leaves them to deal with foul trouble of their own.

Three Point Line - The Mavs, going back the the '06 series, have found success allowing Tim to pretty much get what he can one-on-one and staying with the shooters. While it just as easily could've burned the Mavs in '06 (even if I thought it was a great tactic) it absolutely destroyed the Spurs in '09; with no Manu and a hobbled Tim the one-dimensional attack of the Spurs' perimeter was exposed and shut down. The Spurs' three-point shooting has taken a dip, as the quality of shooter and player manning the position has dropped, but they're going to have to come through in this series. Mason has fallen off the map and Bonner's got a lot to prove under playoff pressure, and only the latter should probably see anything considered significant minutes. The Spurs are going to need their shooters, even if they're not marksman, to hit for a high percentage and force the Mavs to honor them; Manu and George are going to need to step up and hopefully Bonner (fingers crossed) comes through.



There's obviously more to the game that one can break down but I'll just say that if the Spurs can get the Big 3 they need (Manu at the reins) and win or break even on those four facets, the Spurs should find themselves in the driver's seat; and if they can get RJ to commit to playing a gritty game collecting rebounds, filling the gaps offensively and he's able to have significant stretches of success against Nowitzki (preferably while playing the three -- small forward), they could very well find their selves in the winner's circle.

[timtonymanu]

Great analysis as always timvp.

The main things that really worry is Hill's health, the role players, and Pop. Timvp mentioned Hill and Pop but the thing about the role players is I hope they just play consistent.

I dont want soft RJ, old McDyess, discouraged B-M-B. I really hope they all step their game up because it's gonna be a long series.

[Lukor]

good read,agree with most of it.

[sefant77]

Nice write up, but thats the point i see everywhere and i think the Spurs fans "overrating" it:


Ginobili's importance is magnified against Dallas. First of all, the Mavs have the post-defenders and help-defenders to slow Duncan in the low block. Secondly, Parker is still rounding into form following his hand injury. Last but not least is the fact that the Mavs don't truly have a defender who should have much success against Ginobili. It just so happens that Dallas' biggest weakness defensively plays right into Ginobili's hands. Hopefully he's ready to take advantage and coldly serve the revenge.Really less people outside Dallas realized what a great season Marion played at the defensive end. They see his stats and compare to his suns stats and think "He is done". He always took the best SG/SF and i cant remember a game where he was healthy and got destroyed, but i remember a lot of games he gave the opponent star a pretty hard time.

And i would be careful with that Marion Suns 05/07 stuff. The suns mindset was to run and outscore and he didnt have any help and was looking for his 20+ points too. In Dallas he lives for defense, thats why he is here and he knows and lives it. The teams mindset is defense and he has help from the team. Thats different than playing with the old Suns.

And for some minutes the Mavs can even go to Stevenson. His offense is done but he started a couple of games for the Mavs and also took the best wing player and played some good tight defense on him.

Im not talking about taking Gino out of the game but the Mavs DO have players to give Gino plenty of work and they do have players to stop Gino from going nuts. You write it like Gino gonna play fulltime against Terry and Matt Carroll...

[pku47]

Nice read.

If we step further, I won't mind sticking Manu & Rebound to the first two factors, they are the mirrors of offense efficiency and defence toughness, as timvpsaid, consistency on both ends of the court.

Can we make Dirk work too much? I mean just let him score, somehow like the way we did on Amare in 2005, and shut down his connection to others, make others', especially Terry Butler, oppotunities to touch the ball declined. I guess it may work, Dirk will be tired, and Mav's offense emtion could be ruined.

Besides these 10, I also feel the importance of rhythm, something about transition D to let them slow and making shots in offense not to give them fast break oppotunity.

[TDMVPDPOY]

And i would be careful with that Marion Suns 05/07 stuff. The suns mindset was to run and outscore and he didnt have any help and was looking for his 20+ points too. In Dallas he lives for defense, thats why he is here and he knows and lives it. The teams mindset is defense and he has help from the team. Thats different than playing with the old Suns.


Lol dude is a fkn scrub man, he lives for defense? come back to me when his shut down someone on the court...

[sefant77]

Lol dude is a fkn scrub man, he lives for defense? come back to me when his shut down someone on the court...

I see how you got your 15k+ posts...

Check the the boxscores of Thunder/Nuggets/Cavs/Lakers games as example and read some stuff about Marions time in Dallas and come then back please with arguments and dont ruin this nice thread with trashtalk.

[TDMVPDPOY]

I see how you got your 15k+ posts...

Check the the boxscores of Thunder/Nuggets/Cavs/Lakers games as example and read some stuff about Marions time in Dallas and come then back please with arguments and dont ruin this nice thread with trashtalk.

ginoboli says hi

[Lukor]

ginoboli says hi

Ginobili should stay healthy for more than 10 games in a row before he says anything:rollin

[timtonymanu]

Ginobili should stay healthy for more than 10 games in a row before he says anything:rollin

this aint 09 anymore. get a new insult.

[raywessels]

**I find this a curious statement to say, that dallas has less talent.

**Sure, we have 3 superior players in Manu, Duncan, and parker (in that **order). Sure, we have good players in Hill, blair, RJ.

**But they match us talent for talent easily.
**Duncan-dirk.
**Tony-kidd.
**Manu-terry.
**blair-haywood.
**Hill-butler
**rj-marion
**dice-dampier

I'm sorry spurfaninla, but there is no way you can say Manu is comparable talent to JT. That's like saying Kobe and Kwame are comparable talent. and right now I can't see comparing tony and kid or Hill and butler. I believe the spurs win all three of those comparisons.

:flag::lobt2::flag::lobt2::flag::lobt2::flag: :lobt2::flag: and one more to come :lobt2:

[G-Nob]

I can't believe you said bugaboo.

[Lukor]

**I find this a curious statement to say, that dallas has less talent.

**Sure, we have 3 superior players in Manu, Duncan, and parker (in that **order). Sure, we have good players in Hill, blair, RJ.

**But they match us talent for talent easily.
**Duncan-dirk.
**Tony-kidd.
**Manu-terry.
**blair-haywood.
**Hill-butler
**rj-marion
**dice-dampier

I'm sorry spurfaninla, but there is no way you can say Manu is comparable talent to JT. That's like saying Kobe and Kwame are comparable talent. and right now I can't see comparing tony and kid or Hill and butler. I believe the spurs win all three of those comparisons.

:flag::lobt2::flag::lobt2::flag::lobt2::flag: :lobt2::flag: and one more to come :lobt2:

Ginobili is way better than Terry, no doubt about it.
Kidd&Butler and tony&hill are very different players, it's hard to compare. We will know more after the first game.

[EmptyMan]

I'm calling it now... Terry, Caron, and Erika will dish out cheap shots at Ginobili...



We can only hope.



Whatever it takes for Manu to turn GREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEN.

[benefactor]

Taking care of the ball, rebounding on both ends and playing well in transition are the most important IMO. The Spurs can overcome some slippage in the other areas if they remain disclipined on these three fronts.

Besides Manu, the player that I feel can be the biggest x-factor in this series is McDyess. Having playoff McDyess walk out of the tunnel on Sunday evening would be huge for this team in so many areas. If he can hustle on the boards, knock down those open looks and make Dirk work like he did earlier this season it will take a lot of pressure off of everyone. If he wants to see the ring he has sought for so long he's gotta put his hand to the plow and not look back.

[spursfaninla]

**I find this a curious statement to say, that dallas has less talent.

**Sure, we have 3 superior players in Manu, Duncan, and parker (in that **order). Sure, we have good players in Hill, blair, RJ.

**But they match us talent for talent easily.
**Duncan-dirk.
**Tony-kidd.
**Manu-terry.
**blair-haywood.
**Hill-butler
**rj-marion
**dice-dampier

I'm sorry spurfaninla, but there is no way you can say Manu is comparable talent to JT. That's like saying Kobe and Kwame are comparable talent. and right now I can't see comparing tony and kid or Hill and butler. I believe the spurs win all three of those comparisons.

:flag::lobt2::flag::lobt2::flag::lobt2::flag: :lobt2::flag: and one more to come :lobt2:

I agree. But terry scored more than manu this year on average. He shoots just as well, if not better. He is not the playmaker that Manu is, does not have the intangibles, and I don't think he has the same 5th gear, but he is a very good player and will probably score 20 on the spurs several times. I don't consider it a "much better" situation.

I agree with Mavfan that kidd and parker bring different things to their teams. Kidd brings exceptional 3pt shooting, fast break (court vision not speed now), rebounding for his position, passing, and evidently better defense against sg's.

Hill is exploding, but I don't think we can say he blows butler out of the water. Butler is a sf playing sg, and Hill is a sg in a pg body. they will bring different things to each team, both can score. Butler is the better scorer and is bigger, hill has better 3pt shooting and drives better. Not that different.

Anyway, I am confident in our ability to do well if we are HEALTHY. That is the first, important factor.

[nkdlunch]

GT.... Garrett Temple

[dbestpro]

I wonder what the over under is before Terry tries to grab someone's nuts?

[ohmwrecker]

With Hill being out for game 1, I am really concerned about the "Temple as placeholder" strategy. I like Temple a lot and if Hill was good to go, I would prefer he get spot minutes over Mason, but not as a starter in the playoffs against Jason Kidd. Jason Kidd has got to be licking his chops over the thought. Jason Kidd eats rookies for breakfast. I know Kidd is older, but he has a whole bag of tricks Garrett Temple has never seen before and he will make that kid's head spin.
The Spurs have to go with Parker. Parker runs circles around Kidd. Parker makes Kidd work on D which makes him less effective on the other end.
If Dallas plays Kidd and Terry together, switch Parker to Terry on D and put Bogans on Kidd. You can let Dirk shoot jumpers all day, but if the Spurs take out Kidd, they take the Mavs engine away.

[The Truth #6]

I think starting Parker would minimize Manu's potential impact. They'll play together plenty but I think having Parker come off the bench would better allow Manu to get his rhythm going. Also, when Parker is in the game without Manu then Parker can better dominate the flow.

Temple is green but he's impressed me more than Mason in regards to defense, ball handling, and shooting lately. With Hill injured I think Temple needs a chance. I don't feel like we have a lot of other great options. Manu is practically the point guard anyway when he's with Temple.

I think Temple is starting.

[ohmwrecker]

I think Temple is starting.
Well, I hope it works. *fingers crossed* I think the Spurs really need to jump on the Mavs right out of the gate. I would hate for the Spurs to have to play from behind the whole game.
Manu deserves a lot of credit for taking the team over when Parker went out, but don't forget that Hill was his running mate. You can't really just plug in Temple and expect the same result. Especially in the playoffs against a team that matches up so well.

[Johnny RIngo]

Feeling very doubtful about this series with Hill's injury and Parker's current state. I'd be a lot more optimistic if both were 100% healthy but the fact that we're going to be giving a substantial amount of minutes to Temple/Mason makes me nervous.

[PDXSpursFan]

My keys:

1) Ginobili should play like Ginobilli
2) Duncan should dominate
3) Fuck small ball
4) Step-up D
4) Rebounding

[AFBlue]

I have no faith in Bonner or Mason coming through in the post-season given their past performance. Bonner is the anti-Horry and Mason has been in a season-long slump, which doesn't bode well for a guy known for his shooting.

My hope is that Hill and McDyess can provide the outside shooting and that Manu balls out of control. If that happens it won't really matter what Bonner and Mason give (or don't give).

[AFBlue]

With Hill being out for game 1

Do you have a source for this? I've seen some speculation but nothing definitive about his status for game 1.

Just curious, because that would be a BIG blow.

[Solid D]

Good post timvp!

My biggest concerns are two-fold. Transition D, as you and others have mentioned, is one but the 2nd concern is, screen-roll defense and offense.

The Spurs have traditionally had difficulty defending Dirk and the PG, whoever that has been, in the two-man game. The Spurs have blitzed Dirk early to get the ball out of his hands but the end-results have been mixed. When it has gone wrong is when the rotations were slow leading to layups and extra-pass 3s. The Spurs have to stick with Dirk and deny him his favorite spots like the elbow and near the 3-point line as a trailer or on pick-and-pops.

On offensive screen-roll plays, the Mavs have been defending that by following the dribbler with two players (ex. Kidd and Heywood both following Parker). In those situations, the ball-handler needs to get the ball to open man early before the Big has a time to recover. Tony struggled with that on Wednesday by either forcing a bad shot in traffic or trying get a forced pass off at a bad angle at the baseline.

If the Spurs can succeed in these two areas, they will defeat Dallas.

[ohmwrecker]

Do you have a source for this? I've seen some speculation but nothing definitive about his status for game 1.

Just curious, because that would be a BIG blow.
Most sources I found list him as questionable to very questionable. It is an assumption at this point, but it seems to be the conventional wisdom.

[Spurs Brazil]

I think rebound should be number 1 priority.

The bigs have to do their jobs and Manu and especially RJ need to go for every board. Dallas has been killing us on the boards since 06. Win the rebound battle and we'll have a great chance to advance.

And look out for Kidd. He's a master on those long boards

[AFBlue]

Most sources I found list him as questionable to very questionable. It is an assumption at this point, but it seems to be the conventional wisdom.

Disagree with your assumption. He's got two full days left to heal and even if he's not 100%, I think he's a "go". It's the playoffs!

I just wanted to make sure what you said hadn't been confirmed by team sources.

[Express-News]

Finally ………………… Timvp don’t ever do that to us again…. you can’t show up only once a month, specially now during playoffs………… we need material. please.

[ohmwrecker]

Disagree with your assumption. He's got two full days left to heal and even if he's not 100%, I think he's a "go". It's the playoffs!

It's not my assumption, you half-wit. I was speculating on his availabiltiy for game 1 based on the information available.
At any rate, team doctor Tony Parker says Hill will play. Is that good enough for you?

[The Truth #6]

Well, I hope it works. *fingers crossed* I think the Spurs really need to jump on the Mavs right out of the gate. I would hate for the Spurs to have to play from behind the whole game.
Manu deserves a lot of credit for taking the team over when Parker went out, but don't forget that Hill was his running mate. You can't really just plug in Temple and expect the same result. Especially in the playoffs against a team that matches up so well.

Not saying it's a great option but I like him better than Mason. It sounds like Parker won't start so as to keep Manu in the starting lineup. and if Hill isn't ready then I'm not sure what else Pop will do. I imagine a short leash and a change by game 2 with either Hill back or Tony in the starting five if Hill still isn't ready.

In other words, Pop will have to juggle this as it goes.

[in2deep]

If D Blair averages around 15 mpg. Spurs got this series.

[AFBlue]

It's not my assumption, you half-wit. I was speculating on his availabiltiy for game 1 based on the information available.
At any rate, team doctor Tony Parker says Hill will play. Is that good enough for you?

First of all, no need for name-calling just because I disagree with your assumption.

Your original post framed Hill's absence as a certainty, so I was checking to see if you knew something I didn't. You confirmed that you made an assumption based on the reports you'd read, so I weighed in with my thoughts.

Try not to get all bent out of shape.

[AFBlue]

If D Blair averages around 15 mpg. Spurs got this series.

As long as he doesn't commit 5 fouls in those 15 minutes, then I think you're right. He's too productive and efficient not to have an impact if he logs regular minutes.

[RiverwalkParade]

I have never seen the regular season series be so insignificant.

We all know that the Mavs took the series 3-1, but let’s look at the games a bit

Game #1-Spurs win without Parker and Duncan
Game #2-Mavs win in overtime. Again Spurs were without Parker. Kris Humphries was a big difference maker for the Mavs with 5 Offensive Rebounds and a +/- of +15 (Kris Humphries?!?!?!)
Game #3-Mavs win after making up a 10 point deficit and scoring 42 in the fourth quarter. Manu injured after 7 minutes of play.
Game #4-Post-trade Mavs win while Duncan and Manu watch and Hill leaves injured after five minutes.

Game one of this series will be the first time both teams have played each other at full strength.

This is why I love Popovich. He rests his two stars, gets a good look at how the new Mavs team plays together and the team still keeps it competitive. Spurs in 6.

[ohmwrecker]

First of all, no need for name-calling just because I disagree with your assumption.

Your original post framed Hill's absence as a certainty, so I was checking to see if you knew something I didn't. You confirmed that you made an assumption based on the reports you'd read, so I weighed in with my thoughts.

Try not to get all bent out of shape.

I was responding to the dude that said Temple was starting. Why didn't you ask him for his source? My post was a speculative strategy suggestion in response to the already implied assumption that Hill was not available. Try to pay attention.

[in2deep]

As long as he doesn't commit 5 fouls in those 15 minutes, then I think you're right. He's too productive and efficient not to have an impact if he logs regular minutes.

well the way I look at it is. If Pop is willing to give him 15mpg means he is contributing and when Blair contributes, SPurs are close to unbeatable.

[ohmwrecker]

If D Blair averages around 15 mpg. Spurs got this series.

There is no reason why he should play less than Bonner.

[trypldubl]

To me one of the big keys of the series depends on the defensive scheme the spurs play on Dirk. If the Pop sends double teams out on dirk when he is on the perimeter, the mavs either get an open three or a wing drives to into the lane that makes our defense collapse. This would give them either a layup, open shot out on the perimeter or an easy pass to one of their bigs down low.

[EVAY]

So how are the Spurs gonna work out the 'rebounding-vs.pick and roll defense' thing? Isn't that some of what has been the problem with the Spurs/Mavs the last few years?

Duncan will not be put on Nowitzki because he is not mobile enough. So whoever is the other 'big' will have to go out against Nowitzki, leaving Duncan under the basket.

So that means that Duncan is gonna be responsible for virtually all of our defensive rebounding, meaning he is gonna have to have help, because he is foul prone under there due to his mobility problems.

So how then, do we defend the pick and roll? Whoever goes out after Dirk will end up with the small and our guard defender will end up on Dirk, because Duncan has to be in position for potential rebounds.

So how do we do it?

[AFBlue]

I was responding to the dude that said Temple was starting. Why didn't you ask him for his source? My post was a speculative strategy suggestion in response to the already implied assumption that Hill was not available. Try to pay attention.

Responding to who? I don't see anyone passing off the assumption that Hill wouldn't play as fact prior to your first post.

You just came out with this...


With Hill being out for game 1, I am really concerned about the "Temple as placeholder" strategy.

FWIW, I understand that Hill's availability wasn't the focus of your post as much as Temple, which is where your "speculative strategy suggestion" comes in. And I honestly wouldn't have made a deal out of it, except that you had to insult my intelligence.

With that I've reached my limit for pointless arguments for the day.

[objective]

My biggest factor would be to minimize the damage caused by the suspect foursome: The Centerpiece, the Masonpiece, the Bonnerpiece, and the Dicepiece. Those are 4 guys that could absolutely derail any chance the Spurs have to win no matter how well Manu does or what Tim does or whether Parker is any good or not and whatever Hill does.

Those 4 are completely suspect, and the more Pop trusts them or does his Pop routine of over-playing scrubs, the harder it is for the Spurs to win as underdogs. Dallas are deserving favorites, and will have a more manageable game to win when Bonner and Mason do their expected playoff choking.

McDyess might be the least trouble, he's been up and down and has looked good at times against the Mavs this year. But he's the least risky. Centerpiece is usually a disaster, but in limited time maybe he can be useful against guys like Butler.

But the two absolute biggest risks against Spurs victories are Bonner and Mason. Bonner is about as playoff proven as Ian Mahinmi. I remember last playoffs how the one game he had that looked decent on paper wasn't even legit, it was bad bricktown and he didn't hit a shot until Parker singlehandedly got the Spurs a double digit lead and then the noose around Bonner's neck was loosened and he got to pile on (the sole Spurs win). Hell even the last game this year against the Mavs he was full playoff Bonner being a chokemaster until the game was completely out of reach and was just about over, so with the pressure off he knocked down his first bucket of the game.

Mason is just all kinds of choking fail. At least Bonner is an active defender. Maybe not great, maybe not even especially good, but he's trying his hardest out there. I don't see how anyone can think the same of Mason. Mason has all the same playoff shot-choking of Bonner plus worse defense and bad turnovers. I swear to GOD, I feel more comfortable with Garrett Temple playing instead of Mason, and I'm not even that enamored with Temple. But Mason might get the Pop coaching quirk treatment of a ton of minutes.

So instead of saying that "the shooters like Bonner and Mason need to step up", I'd phrase it as "the shooters like Bonner and Mason need to be sat down the moment their suckage starts".

If one of those 4 plays well (McDyess), one plays okay (Bogans), and the other two aren't allowed to derail the Spurs, then I'm liking the Spurs chances more.

[said7]

I took a look at the stats regarding the 3-point shooting. In March the team shot .370 but then took a nose dive in April with .314. Unfortunately, the Spurs are going through a tough stretch from the behind the arc and Mason, whose specialty supposed to be the 3-point shot, is shooting 26% in April. Since Manu has the most attempts per game, I think that he will take most of the load. Hopefully Bonner, who is second in 3-point attempts, will step up and help.

Absolutely the most important of the list. Bonner, Mason and RJ are gonna get looks at threes. Gotta make the open ones.

[Slippy]

Can't look past RJ as an x-factor for me. When he's in the right mindset , his scoring along with defense and rebounding causes all sorts of trouble. When settling for the three, playing passive, he tends to become a non-factor.

[ohmwrecker]

I understand that Hill's availability wasn't the focus of your post as much as Temple, which is where your "speculative strategy suggestion" comes in. And I honestly wouldn't have made a deal out of it, except that you had to insult my intelligence.

I suppose it would've been less confusing if I had said "if" rather than "with" and if I had been the first poster to discuss the possibility of Hill not playing then I would understand you possibly asking for a source.
However, everyone is discussing the issue with the same information and that is what I am basing my comment on. I would hope that was pretty obvious to everyone participating and I wouldn't have to spend 4 other comments trying to explain the first one to the only person who didn't grasp it.

[gospursgojas]

3. Pop and Common Sense
In 2006 and 2009, Pop made glaring mistakes in the playoffs against the Mavs. Too much small ball doomed the Spurs in 2006; Pop overreacted to the mismatches and had the Spurs playing a then uncharted brand of basketball. Last postseason, Pop inexplicably buried Hill on the bench to begin the series. Additionally, Pop's rotations neglected the defensive end of the court until it was too late.

The teams are too evenly matched for Pop to author another blunder and the Spurs come out on top. Rather than trying to be the hero, Pop needs to rely on common sense. Don't try to fit a square peg (a struggling player) into a round hole (playing time). Don't overreact to matchups that don't favor the Spurs (See: Nowitzki, Dirk). Don't be afraid to play those who have performed well all season (See: Blair, DeJuan). In other words, don't out-think things.




This and I would have included the oficiating as well. Will they let the Spurs defend Dirk?

[callo1]

3. Pop and Common Sense
In 2006 and 2009, Pop made glaring mistakes in the playoffs against the Mavs. Too much small ball doomed the Spurs in 2006; Pop overreacted to the mismatches and had the Spurs playing a then uncharted brand of basketball. Last postseason, Pop inexplicably buried Hill on the bench to begin the series. Additionally, Pop's rotations neglected the defensive end of the court until it was too late.



Couldn't agree more on that one.

I think Bonner is a key as well, because he can lighten Timmy's workload a bit if he hits shots from range.

I hope we see RJ, Manu, George, and TP really challenge at the rim. Last year the Spurs didn't take advantage of foul situations well. I do not want to see the "live and die" by the three mentality.

I have no doubts RJ will continue to be a force on the glass, I just hope he stays in attack mode on offense.

[callo1]

Oh yeah, and if I see the ball in Mason's hand with him trying to run the point, I think I'll puke.

[gospursgojas]

Oh yeah, and if I see the ball in Mason's hand with him trying to run the poit, I think I'll puke.

:vomit:

I just did...thinking about that

[TD 21]

Unfortunately, revenge won't be easy. Outside of the Lakers, no other team in the Western Conference boasts as many challenging matchups for San Antonio -- as has been seen the last two times the Spurs took on the Mavs in the playoffs. Even worse, the Mavs seem to be the world's most comfortable basketball team within the confines of the AT&T Center.

8. Tim Duncan and Foul Trouble
Though he's coming off the least foul-prone regular season of his career, you can throw out that statistic when Tim Duncan goes up against the Mavs. Simply put, the Mavs are constructed perfectly to get Duncan in foul trouble. They have a pair of bruising centers to be physical with Duncan. Their offense, which is built around isolation plays and pick-and-roll plays, puts Duncan in awkward positions on the court. Oh and that Dirk Nowitzki guy isn't exactly an easy opponent for Duncan to defend.

2. Rebounding
The one overriding aspect that has tipped the balance of power in Dallas' favor in recent years is rebounding. In the 2006 series, the Mavs outrebounded the Spurs in all seven games. The 2009 series saw the Mavs outrebound the Spurs in every game except for one: Game 2, the sole contest the Spurs won.

Small ball is the most obvious culprit, though the Mavs having superior rebounders at the swingman positions has also been a leading reason. This year, the Spurs can contend on the glass -- but the coaching staff must resist small ball as much as possible, find minutes for Blair and urge each and every player to gang rebound. (By the way, if Jefferson is searching for an area where he can most help, rebounding is the answer.)

1. Manu Ginobili
Without question the absolute top key for the Spurs in this forthcoming series against the Mavs is the play of Manu Ginobili. Since the All-Star break, the Spurs have been Ginobili's team. If he can be at the top of his game, the Spurs will be a difficult out in the playoffs -- for any team in the league.

Ginobili's importance is magnified against Dallas. First of all, the Mavs have the post-defenders and help-defenders to slow Duncan in the low block. Secondly, Parker is still rounding into form following his hand injury. Last but not least is the fact that the Mavs don't truly have a defender who should have much success against Ginobili. It just so happens that Dallas' biggest weakness defensively plays right into Ginobili's hands. Hopefully he's ready to take advantage and coldly serve the revenge.

Really, outside of Nowitzki (who I've always maintained Spurs fans overrate; give any quality player with size a bunch of smalls guarding him and he'll look better than he really is), who? This is a simple case of overrating the opposition. I'd still give him the edge, but the way Butler is playing, he's their version of Jefferson. Marion is virtually a non scorer, Kidd, so long as he's not allowed to get his feet set from three, is the same thing. Dampier/Haywood are a solid duo, but neither are major offensive threats. The three small guards are somewhat difficult match-ups, but I doubt Beaubois is in the rotation (at least to start) and if Hill can move laterally well enough, between him and the fresh legged Parker, who has far less offensively responsibility than last season, the Spurs should be adequate in this regard.

8. They have to worry about guarding the Spurs various weapons, too. Last time I checked, Duncan has always dominated them. "They got two legit centers to guard him", so? He may no longer be playing at a historically great level, but when healthy and rested (which is he now), he's still easily one of the best players in the league. Why should having two guys his size to guard him automatically mean he'll be in tough? Or do you have that little confidence in him, that if he can't go against undersized players, you think he'll struggle or be average?

The Mavs aren't at all constructed perfectly to get Duncan in foul trouble; the Lakers are. As if Dampier/Haywood are major offensive threats. News flash: a lot of teams offenses are built are isolation and pick-and-roll plays. They're no different. They don't put him in any more an awkward position than most. The big thing is Pop needs to stay big around Duncan and play McDyess extended minutes. I don't care about his shooting, he's the Spurs best bet at adequately guarding Nowitzki and is a solid rebounder. Plus, unlike Bonner, he won't be overwhelmed by the moment.

Duncan doesn't defend Nowitzki, but if they did go head to head, sure Nowitzki would have an advantage on offense, but so would Duncan. That wimp can't guard him on the block (look how quickly and easily Duncan scored on him the rare times he got caught on him in transition in '06), despite the fact that he's actually bigger: 7-0 243 to 6-11 240.

2. It's all about staying big and not doubling Nowitzki. If Pop plays McDyess extended minutes and doesn't double Nowitzki, the Spurs should be fine on the glass because they're actually a much better rebounding team. The two best and three of the four best rebounders in the series are Spurs. Marion and Butler are excellent rebounding wingmen, true, but Jefferson (at least recently) and Ginobili aren't that far behind.

1. What about Marion, Butler, Kidd and Stevenson? They're all around Ginobili's size, isn't that automatically enough to guard someone? According to you, it is with Duncan. Why the significantly higher confidence in Ginobili? Marion is an elite defender.

Here's a key to this series: One of Marion, Butler or Terry, will not be able to finish games for the Mavs. They'll need one of Dampier/Haywood in to guard Duncan, unless they're willing to put Nowitzki on him.

[Solid D]

2. It's all about staying big and not doubling Nowitzki. If Pop plays McDyess extended minutes and doesn't double Nowitzki, the Spurs should be fine on the glass because they're actually a much better rebounding team..

You will see doubling of Dirk. No doubt about it. I think the Spurs will mix it up with who they double with but you'll see it. It has had some good results, depending on who is on the floor.

[gospursgojas]

Do you guys think we'll see any hack-a-damp or hack-a-hey??? Both are right at 60% FT

[Solid D]

I would rather the Spurs get up into Jason Terry (without getting called for a foul) and not let him shoot.

[TD 21]

You will see doubling of Dirk. No doubt about it. I think the Spurs will mix it up with who they double with but you'll see it. It has had some good results, depending on who is on the floor.

Unfortunately, I think you're right. I'm not opposed to the odd time doubling, but I think it's both foolish and difficult with him, to do it either consistently or semi consistently. It's easy with a post guy to come from the blind side, on the move, on the catch, when he turns middle, etc. What about a guy who plays around the elbows and often times faces up? He can see where it's coming from and make the easy out pass, which puts the Spurs in rotation (scramble) mode and inevitably leads to open shots. I don't look at Nowitzki as being so great that he can almost single handedly lead the Mavs past the Spurs, but if the Spurs allow the rest of their players open looks, they will lose.

[rjv]

after reading this i'm persuaded to believe we have no chance.

[timvp]

Really less people outside Dallas realized what a great season Marion played at the defensive end. They see his stats and compare to his suns stats and think "He is done". He always took the best SG/SF and i cant remember a game where he was healthy and got destroyed, but i remember a lot of games he gave the opponent star a pretty hard time.

Marion on Ginobili has never worked in the past ... I don't know why it would work now. Marion is a very good defender when he's isolated against his man. What he's not as good at, however, is navigating his way around screens. If Marion guards Ginobili, the first thing the Spurs will do is send a bigman to set a pick on Marion. If Marion at this late date of his career can suddenly handle pick-and-roll defense, the Spurs will tip their caps and head on vacation.

I just don't see it happening, though. I'm not even sure the Mavs will attempt putting Marion on Ginobili too often.


And for some minutes the Mavs can even go to Stevenson.

Stevenson is the worst offensive shooting guard in the NBA. Even if he slows down Ginobili, he'll negate his defense on the other end of the court.

[petee]

0. Pouncing on it as soon as the Mavs start choking

[timvp]

Good post timvp!

My biggest concerns are two-fold. Transition D, as you and others have mentioned, is one but the 2nd concern is, screen-roll defense and offense.

The Spurs have traditionally had difficulty defending Dirk and the PG, whoever that has been, in the two-man game. The Spurs have blitzed Dirk early to get the ball out of his hands but the end-results have been mixed. When it has gone wrong is when the rotations were slow leading to layups and extra-pass 3s. The Spurs have to stick with Dirk and deny him his favorite spots like the elbow and near the 3-point line as a trailer or on pick-and-pops.

On offensive screen-roll plays, the Mavs have been defending that by following the dribbler with two players (ex. Kidd and Heywood both following Parker). In those situations, the ball-handler needs to get the ball to open man early before the Big has a time to recover. Tony struggled with that on Wednesday by either forcing a bad shot in traffic or trying get a forced pass off at a bad angle at the baseline.

If the Spurs can succeed in these two areas, they will defeat Dallas.

Good post :tu

Perhaps the Spurs will go old school when defending the Nowitzki pick-and-rolls and switch everything. With the bigger backcourt of Hill and Ginobili, that may be an option once again.

[timvp]

Really, outside of Nowitzki (who I've always maintained Spurs fans overrate; give any quality player with size a bunch of smalls guarding him and he'll look better than he really is), who? This is a simple case of overrating the opposition. I'd still give him the edge, but the way Butler is playing, he's their version of Jefferson. Marion is virtually a non scorer, Kidd, so long as he's not allowed to get his feet set from three, is the same thing. Dampier/Haywood are a solid duo, but neither are major offensive threats. The three small guards are somewhat difficult match-ups, but I doubt Beaubois is in the rotation (at least to start) and if Hill can move laterally well enough, between him and the fresh legged Parker, who has far less offensively responsibility than last season, the Spurs should be adequate in this regard.

It's not as much the personnel as much as it is the way their team is constructed. It's no accident that their team is built to attack San Antonio's weak spots. The Spurs stood in their way and the Mavs focused their efforts on finding their way around the Spurs.

-The Spurs thrive on cutting down the opposition's assists ... but that doesn't matter against Dallas because the Mavs do most of their damage in isolation sets.

-The Spurs get easy shots when teams double Duncan ... but the Mavs don't double Duncan and have the bigmen to pull it off without getting torched.

-The Spurs purposely allow teams to shoot midrange jumpers ... the Mavs have players who can drain midrange jumpers.

-The Spurs funnel penetration to the baseline ... the Mavs almost always have four players on the court that can penetrate and take advantage.

-Parker and Ginobili thrive against bigger guards and small frontcourts ... the Mavs have smaller guards and a big frontcourt.

Etc, etc . . .

If there's a team in the West that gives the Spurs more matchup problems outside of L.A., I'd like to know of that team.


8. They have to worry about guarding the Spurs various weapons, too. Last time I checked, Duncan has always dominated them. You must not check very often. Especially considering that the Mavs rarely double-team him. If other teams used that tactic, Duncan would shred them. Duncan plays well against Dallas usually but no other team gets away with as many single-teams against Duncan than Dallas.


Why should having two guys his size to guard him automatically mean he'll be in tough? Or do you have that little confidence in him, that if he can't go against undersized players, you think he'll struggle or be average?

Huh? Dampier and Haywood are probably two of the top ten post defenders in the NBA. Ignoring that duo would be foolish.

I'm confident in Duncan but the Mavs have enough holes on defense that they don't have to solely rely on Duncan to produce offense.


The Mavs aren't at all constructed perfectly to get Duncan in foul trouble; the Lakers are. As if Dampier/Haywood are major offensive threats. News flash: a lot of teams offenses are built are isolation and pick-and-roll plays. They're no different. They don't put him in any more an awkward position than most.:lol Watch more basketball.

The Mavs almost always have a player either driving at Duncan or they force Duncan to rotate out on the perimeter. No other team forces Duncan to move as much on the defensive end.


1. What about Marion, Butler, Kidd and Stevenson? They're all around Ginobili's size, isn't that automatically enough to guard someone? According to you, it is with Duncan. I don't even understand what you are whining about.

Anyways, I've already explained Marion and Stevenson vs. Ginobili. Butler is a below average defender and Kidd isn't very good against players who penetrate off the dribble.

[Slippy]

Shooters stepping up at number seven should be higher. With the way Manu's playing and Tony going into top gear, Spurs' shooters are going to get plenty good looks. Whether they deliver is a huge question mark.

Manu and Hill can be counted on but who else? Bonner seems like the first guy to step up but reading many posts about choking in the play-offs has me doubting the guy. RJ's 3-point shot just does not look like going in. He looks more comfortable shooting from 18-20 feet so here's hoping he adjusts when forced to shoot open. Mason if called upon has gotta be more selective. Shooting leaning and rushed 3-pointers is not his game. Rather see open shots with feet set. The problem is Mase after a disastrous season still doesn't know how to play to his limitations especially when handling the ball.

[mogrovejo]

I also agree that pick'n'roll defence is the key for the Spurs to win this series. The Spurs have struggled all season to defend it; the Mavs run an incredible amount/diversity of screenball plays - Kidd or Terry/Dirk is very difficult to stop especially with Kidd shooting well and with 2 shooters deep in the wings, Haywood is very quick stepping out to set the pick plus not the offensive liability Dampier is; Beaubois is one of the best p'n'r guards in the league, explosive turning the corner; ditto for Barea... the Mavs run the 1-on-3 ballscreen, the 2/4, the 1/2, from the top, from the wing, a double screen where Dirk pops and the center or Marion rolls...I'm intrigued to see how Popovich will defend the play - I wouldn't be surprised if this severely limits Blair's ability to stay on the floor and forces Pop to go with Jefferson at the 4 to have more quickness on the floor.

The transition game is the 2nd most important thing the Spurs must take care off. The Mavericks can be a very good rebounding team when they put their mind on it + they have good rebounders in their backcourt that can grab the board and immediately bring the ball up. They also do a lot of stand and watch and can be very vulnerable to aggressive bigs, but I think the Spurs will be very conservative here and

I suspect the Spurs will switch a lot when defending the Mavs backcourt players and that may leave them vulnerable to their ISO plays + Haywood and Dampier will force Duncan to run the floor every possession and they'll contest every rebound. If I were Carlisle, I'd be mad if by the 4th quarter Duncan wasn't half-dead. I also think Parker will struggle if defended by Kidd or Terry (who struggles defending wings but is pretty decent on PGs).

I completely agree that Manu + shooters will be important - and Manu more as a playmaker/facilitator. The Mavs don't have anybody able to guard Ginobili except Beaubois but Carlisle won't trust him. But they flood the strongside and swarm the ball-handler on the pick'n'roll, so Manu's ability to read the game well, be a dangerous playmaker off picks and the Spurs ability to reverse the ball quickly and hit the naked wing 3 are going to be decisive.

I feel the Spurs are overall the superior team, the one that plays with more purpose and that should be tougher to handle for most good teams, but if there's some master plan by Popovich to suddenly unveil Mahinmi as a secret weapon he's been hiding all season, then this is the series. The Mavs are a tougher matchup for the Spurs than the Lakers.

[SpursNextRomanEmpire]

I'm calling it now... Terry, Caron, and Erika will dish out cheap shots at Ginobili...

I really hope not, but I can see Terry doing something

[Blackjack]

Props, mogrovejo. :toast

I'm not sure if you've stepped it up considerably on this side of the board or if I've just taken more notice, but it's definitely nice to see another quality poster contributing. :tu

[Brazil]

Very good thread confirming (if needed) that Timvp is essential to this board.

Everything has been said and well commented.

Personally I have a concern regarding how George will respond to his new status in PO: it is one thing to be a key player in the RS it is another to do so in the PO. Hill will start and I honestly believe that this is the best for the team but how George will perform in this position and how TP will handle his new role off the bench. These two points are IMO also key to a spurs W.

[sefant77]

I completely agree that Manu + shooters will be important - and Manu more as a playmaker/facilitator. The Mavs don't have anybody able to guard Ginobili except Beaubois but Carlisle won't trust him. But they flood the strongside and swarm the ball-handler on the pick'n'roll, so Manu's ability to read the game well, be a dangerous playmaker off picks and the Spurs ability to reverse the ball quickly and hit the naked wing 3 are going to be decisive.



I would love to see more Beaubois, specially against Parker but he has still one major leak and thats picknroll defense.

So we will see if he gets courttime and how much after getting burned the first 1-2 times. On the other side he would be able to gas out Parker pretty nice because he would run all the time.

[spurs10]

Manu has been putting on clinics of late with pick and roll offense that should be equally challenging to defend. Is Butler or anyone else as explosive as Manu in getting to the rim? I'm hoping RJ in part is our answer to Butler and they have no good answer to Manu.

[westbound17]

Go Spurs! beat ALLAS! The Big 3 must dominate plus Jefferson must be the player that we're expecting in the offseason.

contain No-D-Witzki..not to mention his *ehem* Girlfriend. lol

[ManuTP9]

Thanks for the analysis Timvp.

[G-Nob]

Spurs vs. Mavs 2010 Playoff Prediction:

Game 1: Mavs win

Media: We knew Dallas just had too many weapons
Mavs: We executed our game plan
Spurs: We need to do a better job defensively
Spurstalk Mavs Fans: lol spurs
Spurstalk Threads: 4 rings, b*tches!

Game 2: Spurs Win

Media: The championship pride would not allow a sweep
Mavs: "We need to figure out a plan for Ginobili"
Spurs: "Did what we came here to do, get a split. Now we have to take care of our home court."
Spurstalk Mavs Fans (after 1-day silence): We're still the better team. Mavs in 6.
Spurstalk Threads: Ditka couldn't stop Manu tonight.

Game 3: Mavs win

Media: The Spurs are showing their age
Mavs: We took back home court, now its in our hands.
Spurs: We need to do a better job on dirk
Spurstalk Mavs Fans: Bring on the Suns!
Spurstalk Threads: Mase is getting too many minutes. Fire Pop

Game 4: Spurs win

Media: Terry punches Matt Bonner
Mavs: We have to keep Parker out of the paint( followed by mavs player threatning to knock TP on his azz next time he gets in the paint)
Spurs: Tony got good penetration tonight
Spurstalk Mavs Fans: F-you, Salvatore! The refs screwed us again!
Spurstalk Threads: The ghetto smurf, flying nut puncher returns!

-Terry Suspended for Game 5
-Stu Jackson warns of premeditated flagrants
-Cuban fined 35K for criticizing refs

Game 5: Mavs win
Media: Mavs FT 22-25, Spurs FT 6-10 (Free JET t-shirts are passed out)
Mavs: We felt the game was fairly called
Spurs: No more strategy, here on out, its just basketball
Spurstalk Mavs Fans: No JET and we still beat your azzes
Spurstalk Threads: It ain't over till its over. (Prompting another No Limit rallying thread)

Game 6: Spurs win
Media: The Mavs can't match the Spurs championship experience
Mavs: This is why we played all season t get home court
Spurs: We need to get one more in their house
Spurstalk Mavs Fans: (very nervous) Hard fought series, we're still the better team, though.
Spurstalk Threads: This time Manu won't foul Dirk!

Game 7: If Mavs win
Media: Spurs are too old, mavs were too much for them
Mavs: This is why we made the trade
Spurs: Changes need to be made
Spurstalk Mavs Fans: lol spurs, don't cry
Spurstalk Threads: Four rings. Whens the draft?

Game 7: If Spurs win
Media: Never underestimate the heart of a champion
Mavs: Give em credit, they played us well.
Spurs: It was a hard-fought series, we're glad to be passed them
Spurstalk Mavs Fans: (after long absence) we still hate your team but Spurstalk is waaaaaaay better than DB.com
Spurstalk Threads: Drive for 5!

[Solid D]

Props, mogrovejo. :toast

I'm not sure if you've stepped it up considerably on this side of the board or if I've just taken more notice, but it's definitely nice to see another quality poster contributing. :tu

Amen. :tu

[taps]

Sorry to go off topic I do not mean to derail the thread:

Does anybody know what happened to the NT press conference Manu was supposed to hold at the end of the Regular Season.

I haven't found any news saying it was postponed. Did I go ADD and miss it? Anyone?

[polandprzem]

Of course we mostly are talking about transition, rebounds, defending screen situations, defending Dirk and Hills ability to switch as well as defend slashers.

One name Tim Duncan was not mentioned much.
I think one of the keys will be to put big mavs players in a foul trouble. If Tim can somehow still dominate inside we can force Mavs to double Tim and spurs feeds of it on ofense it flows better and it's contructed mostly on sucking opponents D where Tim is and he is a great passer.
Like you can see backcourt players setting themselves close to the 3 point line just when Tim gets more attention. He can throw a cross pass or spurs can create a good passing lane for the open shooter -> Matt, manu, RJ.

unfortunatley mavs have so many weapons that they can live with single coverage on those last minutes when Mavs frontcourt will be in trouble, they gonna have 20 point lead in the 4th by then.

I wonder what can Pop invent, I mean really invent to set spurs offense.
On defense - more rebounds or more transition? If transition we have Hill not healthy and Tony bit slower and not in game rhythm [shape]

Tough to deal with those mavs I'm tellin ya :)

[EricB]

Spurs vs. Mavs 2010 Playoff Prediction:

Game 1: Mavs win

Media: We knew Dallas just had too many weapons
Mavs: We executed our game plan
Spurs: We need to do a better job defensively
Spurstalk Mavs Fans: lol spurs
Spurstalk Threads: 4 rings, b*tches!

Game 2: Spurs Win

Media: The championship pride would not allow a sweep
Mavs: "We need to figure out a plan for Ginobili"
Spurs: "Did what we came here to do, get a split. Now we have to take care of our home court."
Spurstalk Mavs Fans (after 1-day silence): We're still the better team. Mavs in 6.
Spurstalk Threads: Ditka couldn't stop Manu tonight.

Game 3: Mavs win

Media: The Spurs are showing their age
Mavs: We took back home court, now its in our hands.
Spurs: We need to do a better job on dirk
Spurstalk Mavs Fans: Bring on the Suns!
Spurstalk Threads: Mase is getting too many minutes. Fire Pop

Game 4: Spurs win

Media: Terry punches Matt Bonner
Mavs: We have to keep Parker out of the paint( followed by mavs player threatning to knock TP on his azz next time he gets in the paint)
Spurs: Tony got good penetration tonight
Spurstalk Mavs Fans: F-you, Salvatore! The refs screwed us again!
Spurstalk Threads: The ghetto smurf, flying nut puncher returns!

-Terry Suspended for Game 5
-Stu Jackson warns of premeditated flagrants
-Cuban fined 35K for criticizing refs

Game 5: Mavs win
Media: Mavs FT 22-25, Spurs FT 6-10 (Free JET t-shirts are passed out)
Mavs: We felt the game was fairly called
Spurs: No more strategy, here on out, its just basketball
Spurstalk Mavs Fans: No JET and we still beat your azzes
Spurstalk Threads: It ain't over till its over. (Prompting another No Limit rallying thread)

Game 6: Spurs win
Media: The Mavs can't match the Spurs championship experience
Mavs: This is why we played all season t get home court
Spurs: We need to get one more in their house
Spurstalk Mavs Fans: (very nervous) Hard fought series, we're still the better team, though.
Spurstalk Threads: This time Manu won't foul Dirk!

Game 7: If Mavs win
Media: Spurs are too old, mavs were too much for them
Mavs: This is why we made the trade
Spurs: Changes need to be made
Spurstalk Mavs Fans: lol spurs, don't cry
Spurstalk Threads: Four rings. Whens the draft?

Game 7: If Spurs win
Media: Never underestimate the heart of a champion
Mavs: Give em credit, they played us well.
Spurs: It was a hard-fought series, we're glad to be passed them
Spurstalk Mavs Fans: (after long absence) we still hate your team but Spurstalk is waaaaaaay better than DB.com
Spurstalk Threads: Drive for 5!


:lmao


SO very well written. Good job.

[Man In Black]

End Of Season Per Minutes Using Points Created Method
Tim Duncan .746 Dirk Nowitzki .637
Ian Mahinmi .600 Jason Kidd .521
Manu Ginobili .575 Roderick Beaubois .486
DeJuan Blair .536 Brendan Haywood .479
Tony Parker .439 Erick Dampier .464
Matt Bonner .414 Shawn Marion .430
Antonio McDyess .410 Jason Terry .402
George Hill .369 Caron Butler .382
Richard Jefferson .361 J.J. Barea .369
Malik Hairston .323 Eduardo Najera .269
Roger Mason Jr. .289 Matt Carroll .194
Garrett Temple .256 DeShawn Stevenson .110
Keith Bogans .226

In a nutshell, think of this per minute score as a batting average. The higher the average the better your team is.
A few assumptions though.

1- All stats are stats gained as playing for their current teams. So anything that Butler, Haywood, or Stevenson got as Wizards are not included.

2-Defensive players whose very game is predicated by position defense don't do very well because position defense is not a stat that shows up in a box score. You can, however, look at an opposing player who that DP is supposed to cover. If that player scores lower per minute against the DP, then you know that DP did his job well enough.

3-I need sources to get numbers for Ginobili & Hill as starters and for Parker as a X-Factor off the bench. The numbers listed for them are just for total minutes. So while indicative of what was done throughout the season, it doesn't give us what it's really like right now.

4-It would seem that Pop can play big and not lose that much, at least in limited minutes. Both Blair, and surprisingly, Mahinmi, play more positively than negatively. Looking at Dallas, Terry, Marion, & Butler's low scores don't bode well for MavNots.

5-For anyone who says Duncan has lost it? The guy is still playing at a Superstar Level.
Anyone over a .650 is a superstar in efficiency...See that Dirk Nowitzki? Although Dirk's All Star Level ain't nothing to sniff at.

6-Just to give you a look into how it works:
.650 and over is a superstar
.550 to .649 is all-star level
.450 to .549 is strong starter level
.350 to .449 is situational player level
.250 to .349 is needs lots of improvement level
.150 to .249 is probably a d-league level player
.001 to .149 so how did you get in the NBA again?

[AFBlue]

I suppose it would've been less confusing if I had said "if" rather than "with"

Glad you could admit the misconception was your fault.

And now we're more confident that your speculative suggestion concern regarding Temple is irrelevant. I too, wouldn't like it IF Temple were a placeholder in the event that Hill were unable to play. See how I phrased that there to avoid confusion?

:D

[ohmwrecker]

Glad you could admit the misconception was your fault.

And now we're more confident that your speculative suggestion concern regarding Temple is irrelevant. I too, wouldn't like it IF Temple were a placeholder in the event that Hill were unable to play. See how I phrased that there to avoid confusion?

:D

Most speculation is irrelevant. Do you have to blame someone everytime you experience misconception or are just an argumentative and contrary person by nature? Temple WAS used as a placeholder while Hill was injured. You still seemed confused.

[AFBlue]

Most speculation is irrelevant. Do you have to blame someone everytime you experience misconception or are just an argumentative and contrary person by nature? Temple WAS used as a placeholder while Hill was injured. You still seemed confused.

I place blame where it's due.

As for Temple, I watch Spurs games and am very aware how he was used down the stretch. I was stating my preference for how to work the backcourt rotation in the playoffs in the event Hill were injured. But that appears to be a moot point since most indications now have Hill playing in some capacity.

Not confused now. You stated an assumption as fact, I asked for clarification and got it. It's been clear since then.

[ZB 512]

Spurs vs. Mavs 2010 Playoff Prediction:

Game 1: Mavs win

Media: We knew Dallas just had too many weapons
Mavs: We executed our game plan
Spurs: We need to do a better job defensively
Spurstalk Mavs Fans: lol spurs
Spurstalk Threads: 4 rings, b*tches!

Game 2: Spurs Win

Media: The championship pride would not allow a sweep
Mavs: "We need to figure out a plan for Ginobili"
Spurs: "Did what we came here to do, get a split. Now we have to take care of our home court."
Spurstalk Mavs Fans (after 1-day silence): We're still the better team. Mavs in 6.
Spurstalk Threads: Ditka couldn't stop Manu tonight.

Game 3: Mavs win

Media: The Spurs are showing their age
Mavs: We took back home court, now its in our hands.
Spurs: We need to do a better job on dirk
Spurstalk Mavs Fans: Bring on the Suns!
Spurstalk Threads: Mase is getting too many minutes. Fire Pop

Game 4: Spurs win

Media: Terry punches Matt Bonner
Mavs: We have to keep Parker out of the paint( followed by mavs player threatning to knock TP on his azz next time he gets in the paint)
Spurs: Tony got good penetration tonight
Spurstalk Mavs Fans: F-you, Salvatore! The refs screwed us again!
Spurstalk Threads: The ghetto smurf, flying nut puncher returns!

-Terry Suspended for Game 5
-Stu Jackson warns of premeditated flagrants
-Cuban fined 35K for criticizing refs

Game 5: Mavs win
Media: Mavs FT 22-25, Spurs FT 6-10 (Free JET t-shirts are passed out)
Mavs: We felt the game was fairly called
Spurs: No more strategy, here on out, its just basketball
Spurstalk Mavs Fans: No JET and we still beat your azzes
Spurstalk Threads: It ain't over till its over. (Prompting another No Limit rallying thread)

Game 6: Spurs win
Media: The Mavs can't match the Spurs championship experience
Mavs: This is why we played all season t get home court
Spurs: We need to get one more in their house
Spurstalk Mavs Fans: (very nervous) Hard fought series, we're still the better team, though.
Spurstalk Threads: This time Manu won't foul Dirk!

Game 7: If Mavs win
Media: Spurs are too old, mavs were too much for them
Mavs: This is why we made the trade
Spurs: Changes need to be made
Spurstalk Mavs Fans: lol spurs, don't cry
Spurstalk Threads: Four rings. Whens the draft?

Game 7: If Spurs win
Media: Never underestimate the heart of a champion
Mavs: Give em credit, they played us well.
Spurs: It was a hard-fought series, we're glad to be passed them
Spurstalk Mavs Fans: (after long absence) we still hate your team but Spurstalk is waaaaaaay better than DB.com
Spurstalk Threads: Drive for 5!

haaa that was great

very well done

[ohmwrecker]

Not confused now. You stated an assumption as fact, I asked for clarification and got it. It's been clear since then.
An assumption, by definition, cannot be fact. The information available at the time I made the original comment was that Hill was questionable for game 1. The language I used, in that context, should be acceptable. Why it is worthy of a circular argument that doesn't seem to end is the only thing that doesn't make sense.

[TD 21]

It's not as much the personnel as much as it is the way their team is constructed. It's no accident that their team is built to attack San Antonio's weak spots. The Spurs stood in their way and the Mavs focused their efforts on finding their way around the Spurs.

-The Spurs thrive on cutting down the opposition's assists ... but that doesn't matter against Dallas because the Mavs do most of their damage in isolation sets.

-The Spurs get easy shots when teams double Duncan ... but the Mavs don't double Duncan and have the bigmen to pull it off without getting torched.

-The Spurs purposely allow teams to shoot midrange jumpers ... the Mavs have players who can drain midrange jumpers.

-The Spurs funnel penetration to the baseline ... the Mavs almost always have four players on the court that can penetrate and take advantage.

-Parker and Ginobili thrive against bigger guards and small frontcourts ... the Mavs have smaller guards and a big frontcourt.

Etc, etc . . .

If there's a team in the West that gives the Spurs more matchup problems outside of L.A., I'd like to know of that team.

You must not check very often. Especially considering that the Mavs rarely double-team him. If other teams used that tactic, Duncan would shred them. Duncan plays well against Dallas usually but no other team gets away with as many single-teams against Duncan than Dallas.



Huh? Dampier and Haywood are probably two of the top ten post defenders in the NBA. Ignoring that duo would be foolish.

I'm confident in Duncan but the Mavs have enough holes on defense that they don't have to solely rely on Duncan to produce offense.

:lol Watch more basketball.

The Mavs almost always have a player either driving at Duncan or they force Duncan to rotate out on the perimeter. No other team forces Duncan to move as much on the defensive end.

I don't even understand what you are whining about.

Anyways, I've already explained Marion and Stevenson vs. Ginobili. Butler is a below average defender and Kidd isn't very good against players who penetrate off the dribble.

Then you should have specified that your statement was more predicated on the way the team is constructed rather than player personnel. In that case, I agree with you and your points.

No, you must not check very often. Duncan has historically destroyed Dampier. And how many teams consistently double Duncan now? Not many. That has more to do with the Spurs improved firepower than it does his decline. The Lakers, Cavs, Magic and Celtics all "get away" with more single teams on Duncan. You know less than you think and are often given credit for and because I expose that, you take issue with me. You're not used to people not bowing down to you.

Dampier is probably not a top ten post defender and even if he was, who cares? Just being big isn't enough. The stats don't lie, Duncan has annihilated Dampier in the past. You have this foolish idea that if someone is big and strong enough, that that means they can automatically guard Duncan. That's why I made the comparison with Ginobili and listed similar sized players, asking you does this automatically means they can guard him. Even though you didn't answer, the answer, of course, is no.

I agree, the Spurs don't have to rely solely on Duncan. But at the same time the Spurs can't under-utilize him just because the Mavs have two big centers, one of which he's historically owned.

I watch tons of basketball, maybe you should watch more because I'm less than impressed with your knowledge.

They force Duncan into awkward positions because the Spurs often play smalls on Nowitzki and that forces Duncan to help frequently, which puts the Spurs in rotation/scramble mode. This would happen in any comparable scenario. Look at that Trail Blazers game where Jefferson guarded Aldridge down the stretch.

[Solid D]

The Lakers, Cavs, Magic and Celtics all "get away" with more single teams on Duncan. You know less than you think and are often given credit for and because I expose that, you take issue with me. You're not used to people not bowing down to you.

Three of the four teams you listed play the Spurs only twice/year. Define more.

[TD 21]

What do you think I meant by more? When they play, obviously. Not how much they play and I presumed timvp meant it that way as well.

[AFBlue]

An assumption, by definition, cannot be fact.

This is exactly my point. When you say "With Hill being out for game 1, I am really concerned" it appears as fact, when it was in fact an assumption. And the reason this continues is because I haven't reached my limit for pointless argument today.

You could just give up though if you'd like.

[Solid D]

TD 21, I would think you mean single-teams per game but I don't think there are any published stats for this to corraborate an argument either way. It's more of an objective opinion based upon observation and recall from both of you. I think the Spurs' ability win will not be founded on whether Duncan is doubled or played man-to-man. I think the Spurs success will come at the other end of the floor.

An example would be found in a game played in San Antonio between these 2 teams earlier in the season. The Spurs shot 53% from the floor, Duncan went for 31 and 12. Parker had 21 and 6. Ginobili had 12 and 7. Jefferson tallied 15. They had a 10 point lead going into the 4th quarter. They just gave up 2nd chance points and couldn't stay with Nowitzki and Terry as the Mavs sailed past the Spurs.

[timvp]

No, you must not check very often. Duncan has historically destroyed Dampier. Really? In their last 32 matchups, Duncan averaged 22.5 points on 49% shooting in nearly 40 minutes per game. Not quite "destroyed".


And how many teams consistently double Duncan now? Not many.Almost all teams throw some sort of double-team on Duncan if Duncan gets going. The Mavs rarely do. The only other team who stubbornly doesn't double TD is Houston ... but they were even forced to change that tactic this season a couple of times.


That has more to do with the Spurs improved firepower than it does his decline.

:lol I wish that were true. Who exactly was the "improved firepower" early this season when Manu and TP were bad and everyone else was below average? Teams used to be forced to double off of David Robinson in hopes of slowing down Duncan.

Duncan is still damn good but to pretend he's still in his prime would be dishonest.


You know less than you think and are often given credit for and because I expose that, you take issue with me. You're not used to people not bowing down to you.:violin What exactly have you "exposed"?


Dampier is probably not a top ten post defender and even if he was, who cares? WTF? Dampier's defensive ability should be noted when the Spurs are about to face the Mavs in the playoffs.


Just being big isn't enough.Who said it was?


The stats don't lie, Duncan has annihilated Dampier in the past.:lol


You have this foolish idea that if someone is big and strong enough, that that means they can automatically guard Duncan. WTF? When have I ever said that?


They force Duncan into awkward positions because the Spurs often play smalls on Nowitzki and that forces Duncan to help frequently, which puts the Spurs in rotation/scramble mode. This would happen in any comparable scenario. Look at that Trail Blazers game where Jefferson guarded Aldridge down the stretch.Duncan isn't usually the player the Spurs send to double on Dirk. Duncan is often forced to rotate to cover the player who is doubling.

[timvp]

TD 21, I would think you mean single-teams per game but I don't think there are any published stats for this to corraborate an argument either way. It's more of an objective opinion based upon observation and recall from both of you. I think the Spurs' ability win will not be founded on whether Duncan is doubled or played man-to-man. I think the Spurs success will come at the other end of the floor.

An example would be found in a game played in San Antonio between these 2 teams earlier in the season. The Spurs shot 53% from the floor, Duncan went for 31 and 12. Parker had 21 and 6. Ginobili had 12 and 7. Jefferson tallied 15. They had a 10 point lead going into the 4th quarter. They just gave up 2nd chance points and couldn't stay with Nowitzki and Terry as the Mavs sailed past the Spurs.
Yeah, that Terry/Dirk pick-and-roll down the stretch is deadly. If the Spurs can somehow slow down the effectiveness of that play, they should be okay.

[timvp]

Speaking of Dampier, part of his success against Duncan is he holds him all the time off the ball. On the offensive end, he'll hold Duncan for a second before he goes out to set a screen. He'll also hold him when Duncan is trying to crash the boards.

On defense, Dampier's holding is even more damaging. He holds Duncan when Duncan is attempting to cover the rim. The small delay from the hold keeps Duncan from getting good position and leads to fouls.

Whenever Duncan goes against Dampier, watch for Duncan complaining about being held. It'll happen about a half dozen times per game. Dampier will sometimes get caught ... but not often.

The Dampier holding is the reason why I hope that Haywood plays more even though Haywood is better than Dampier.

[TD 21]

TD 21, I would think you mean single-teams per game but I don't think there are any published stats for this to corraborate an argument either way. It's more of an objective opinion based upon observation and recall from both of you. I think the Spurs' ability win will not be founded on whether Duncan is doubled or played man-to-man. I think the Spurs success will come at the other end of the floor.

An example would be found in a game played in San Antonio between these 2 teams earlier in the season. The Spurs shot 53% from the floor, Duncan went for 31 and 12. Parker had 21 and 6. Ginobili had 12 and 7. Jefferson tallied 15. They had a 10 point lead going into the 4th quarter. They just gave up 2nd chance points and couldn't stay with Nowitzki and Terry as the Mavs sailed past the Spurs.


Corroborate, not corraborate. You're right, there are no published stats for this and it's not like I sit there (and I doubt timvp or anyone does) with a paper and pencil tallying how many times Duncan get's doubled, it's just logic based on personnel. Yeah, last meeting the Lakers doubled Duncan down the stretch because he completely overpowered Gasol on the block. Generally speaking, Jackson hates doubling to begin with and often doesn't have to because of the presence of Bynum. The Celtics have Perkins and Wallace. The Cavs have O'Neal and Ilgauskas and the Magic have Howard and Gortat.

I agree, the Spurs ability to win isn't based on how frequently Duncan is doubled and neither of us have said that. Timvp is the poster boy for a Spurs fan who overrated and exaggerates the Mavs strengths. They gave up second chance points, exactly and why? Because too often they play smalls on Nowitzki. If they stay with McDyess and don't double frequently, they can protect their own backboard.


Really? In their last 32 matchups, Duncan averaged 22.5 points on 49% shooting in nearly 40 minutes per game. Not quite "destroyed".

Almost all teams throw some sort of double-team on Duncan if Duncan gets going. The Mavs rarely do. The only other team who stubbornly doesn't double TD is Houston ... but they were even forced to change that tactic this season a couple of times.



:lol I wish that were true. Who exactly was the "improved firepower" early this season when Manu and TP were bad and everyone else was below average? Teams used to be forced to double off of David Robinson in hopes of slowing down Duncan.

Duncan is still damn good but to pretend he's still in his prime would be dishonest.

:violin What exactly have you "exposed"?

WTF? Dampier's defensive ability should be noted when the Spurs are about to face the Mavs in the playoffs.

Who said it was?

:lol

WTF? When have I ever said that?

Duncan isn't usually the player the Spurs send to double on Dirk. Duncan is often forced to rotate to cover the player who is doubling.

He's had plenty of games in the 30's against the Mavs since the great Dampier got there. That stretch is roughly past five seasons right? Duncan's basically been a 19 ppg scorer in that stretch, yet he jumps to 22.5 ppg against the Mavs. Increased minutes or not, that's significant.

I said how many consistently double Duncan anymore; I didn't say most don't ever. Learn to read.

So you're saying the Spurs don't have more firepower than they've had in the past? Because almost every statistical indicator suggests otherwise. Where did I pretend Duncan was still in his prime? You have a serious problem with reading comprehension. I said teams not doubling as frequently as they used to is more based on improved firepower surrounding him than his decline. But I never said he isn't in decline.

I've exposed the fact that you're arrogant, not nearly as knowledgeable as you think and can't take an ounce of criticism.

Again, I never said Dampier's defensive ability shouldn't be noted, but Duncan has been very successful against him, so it's not all that relevant. You act like the Spurs should go away from Duncan because the Mavs have two big centers.

You may not have said it directly, but you certainly inferred it.

What did I just say? The Spurs are forced into rotation/scramble mode, at times the rim is left unprotected. The point is the rebounding disparity is largely based on the Spurs playing small. You don't think that if the Spurs play McDyess extended minutes on Nowitzki and don't double frequently, that they couldn't protect their own backboard just fine? I'll take Duncan-McDyess over Haywood/Nowitzki on the boards.

[MaNu4Tres]

The point is the rebounding disparity is largely based on the Spurs playing small. You don't think that if the Spurs play McDyess extended minutes on Nowitzki and don't double frequently, that they couldn't protect their own backboard just fine? I'll take Duncan-McDyess over Haywood/Nowitzki on the boards.

Agreed completely. Second chance points and free throws have haunted the Spurs against the Mavericks.

Going small will only compound both issues for the reasons I stated in another thread.


I was discussing this very issue with a couple of buddies of mine.

I brought it to the attention that McDyess is a VERY underrated factor this series. For these reasons...

-This Mavs team is different than in the past. If Spurs elect to go small and use Jefferson on the kraut, then that leaves us more vulnerable in the rebound department. The Mavs have above average rebounding at every position from Kidd at PG, Butler at SG, Marion at SF, Haywood and Damp at C. We don't need to compound that negative aspect by playing small when our wings outside of Jefferson are all undersized. We need to limit the Mavs to one shot per possession as much as possible.

Another point I want to bring up, is something that I quite don't understand. Whenever a team's go to guy gets the whistle as much as Dirk, why do the Spurs choose to go small? Playing a smaller defender on Dirk only makes the defender have to crowd him and play more physical because of the defender being undersized. Which makes it easier for Dirk to create separation by employing his erray of moves from the triple threat position from jab steps and pump fakes, which consequently makes it easier to draw fouls due to the crowding and the quick reflexes necessary to contest.

Wouldn't you rather play a big man like McDyess on Dirk and play the drive( then closing out quick once he picks up his dribble for the jump-shot* This is when Mavs have Dirk iso at the top of the key*)? Me personally I would much rather Dirk take semi-contested 15-20 footers than going to the line 18 times a game.

Same theory when Dirk is on the block or with his back to the basket 5-12 feet out. Why play small? When your going to have to double and often leave the basket and the lane often occupied by your smallest and least threatening defenders? This is when second chance opportunities and cuts to the basket by the opposition from the weak side destroy the Spurs.

Not to mention smaller defenders are going to be more susceptible to fouling Dirk because they are undersized by length and strength. This is another way getting Dirk to the line when Dirk tries to establish his inside game.

McDyess' value is huge this series. IMO

[Solid D]

Corroborate, not corraborate. Thank you. Exactly.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Speaking of Dampier, part of his success against Duncan is he holds him all the time off the ball. On the offensive end, he'll hold Duncan for a second before he goes out to set a screen. He'll also hold him when Duncan is trying to crash the boards.

On defense, Dampier's holding is even more damaging. He holds Duncan when Duncan is attempting to cover the rim. The small delay from the hold keeps Duncan from getting good position and leads to fouls.

Whenever Duncan goes against Dampier, watch for Duncan complaining about being held. It'll happen about a half dozen times per game. Dampier will sometimes get caught ... but not often.

The Dampier holding is the reason why I hope that Haywood plays more even though Haywood is better than Dampier.


Why wouldn't Carlisle just tell Haywood to hold Duncan, too?

[NewJerSpur]

I'm just glad we're relatively healthy this time around going into the playoffs....seems like forever and a day (more like 2 years) since that hasn't been the most prevailing question mark approaching Game 1 of the opening series, though we're all obviously holding our breadth with regard to Hill's ankle. Having Parker in the second unit should help keep us out of those offesnive scoring droughts.

[Fabbs]

4. Make Dirk Work
....The coaching staff is going to have to be inventive with gimmicky schemes to overcome the gaping hole in the personnel.

3. Pop and Common Sense
In 2006 and 2009, Pop made glaring mistakes in the playoffs against the Mavs. Too much small ball doomed the Spurs in 2006; Pop overreacted to the mismatches and had the Spurs playing a then uncharted brand of basketball. Last postseason, Pop inexplicably buried Hill on the bench to begin the series. Additionally, Pop's rotations neglected the defensive end of the court until it was too late.

The teams are too evenly matched for Pop to author another blunder and the Spurs come out on top. Rather than trying to be the hero, Pop needs to rely on common sense. Don't try to fit a square peg (a struggling player) into a round hole (playing time). Don't overreact to matchups that don't favor the Spurs (See: Nowitzki, Dirk). Don't be afraid to play those who have performed well all season (See: Blair, DeJuan). In other words, don't out-think things.

2. Rebounding
.. the coaching staff must resist small ball as much as possible, find minutes for Blair and urge each and every player to gang rebound. (By the way, if Jefferson is searching for an area where he can most help, rebounding is the answer.)

1. Manu Ginobili
the play of Manu Ginobili.
timvp notice how 3 of your top 4 involve Pop? (and staff if they truly have any say, which we doubt).
I'd rather Lord Poppycock be kidnapped for a month then hope he will do what's best for the team but here we go.....

Manu. Averaging 25/7/6 for 7 games i do not think is gonna happen but i do agree he's gotta do it for 3-4 wins minimal to win the series. In 2008 Barrdog filled in admirably for injured GNob (sans the failure to shot attempt the game ender and would-be game winner vs Derek Swisher), but this year there is no true fill in for GNob. Unless Mase just astounds and am not going to bank on that.

[callo1]

Defending the high screen and roll will be the key imho. The Spurs have struggled with that the past few years.

[ajGambino]

What's been pissing me off among other things is the free throw percentage. It's been awful...we really need to step up and concentrate on the foul line.

[kuato]

If Manu can play well then all the team is a better team, Manu don't need to score on every match to win the game.

[Winehole23]

A combination of Manu beasting, role players stepping up, Timmy and TP being themselves and above all rebounding the ball and playing Spurs caliber D. Could do the trick against the Mavs.

[kuato]

http://gantmanblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/manu-ginobili-visa2.bmp

[kace]

i won't go in the debate between timvp and TD21, but still i think TD21 is quite right when he says he thinks that tim role shouldn't be "underrated".

i mean in the 10 keys, you've got TP at n°9, and TD at n°8 when Manu is a "clear" n°1 for timvp.

i think that's just a classic overreaction about manu.

Having the super manu we had lately is just huge. no doubt. and i hope we'll see this manu for all the serie and PO.

but this team is still about the big three on offense (and of course a big team defense). so, tp and tim at 9 and 8 and manu at n°1 is kind of excessive IMHO.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

Thanks, LJ, great summary. :tu

6. and 3. worry me most - our transition defence this year has been a level below any time in the past decade, and I'm concerned that Pop might succumb to his benophobia and do something stupid like sit Grizzly. He needs to have a big series keeping Haywood/Dampier busy.

It really feels like Manu time to me, and if he goes for 25/5 that'll go along way to winning the series, all other things being equal.

It's also a weird feeling to go into a series with question marks over both Tony and Tim, although the way Timmy always steps up for the real season means there's less of a question about him.

Should be a fascinating series. :)

[La Mont]

Speaking of Dampier, part of his success against Duncan is he holds him all the time off the ball. On the offensive end, he'll hold Duncan for a second before he goes out to set a screen. He'll also hold him when Duncan is trying to crash the boards.

On defense, Dampier's holding is even more damaging. He holds Duncan when Duncan is attempting to cover the rim. The small delay from the hold keeps Duncan from getting good position and leads to fouls.

Whenever Duncan goes against Dampier, watch for Duncan complaining about being held. It'll happen about a half dozen times per game. Dampier will sometimes get caught ... but not often.

The Dampier holding is the reason why I hope that Haywood plays more even though Haywood is better than Dampier.
man uhh, guess what is the weakest line with the Mavs? their perimeter defense. umm... so I think it would be a waste of Duncan's all-round skills if he's only used head-2-head against Dampier in offense. ahh, man the Spurs play team ball and that is what won them 4 championships. ehhh, in contrast, the Mavs pay much more money but haven't reaped anything worth the money paid, and they never brewed good chemistry which is one necessary factor for a championship contender.

uhh, I mean Spurs just need to play p&r at perimeter every chance they get, then the Mavs are killed on their side of court. as to the defensive end, Spurs just need to hold those sofe asses outside of the 3-sec zone then the Mavs will have to bet their lives on luck by jump shooting.

uhhh, if i remember correctly, the Spurs were convincingly deluged by Mavs in paint in the previous match ups between the two teams, in which it was always the spurs than ended as the loser. Man bonner doesn't have the shape to play near the basket. If the Spurs want to win the series they will have to give more minutes to tougher dudes like Blair, McDyess, etc., with the paint well controlled it should be easy for Spurs to cut off Mavs supply of offensive rebounds, which crank out about 10pts/game for them on season's average.

[sefant77]

man uhh, guess what is the weakest line with the Mavs? their perimeter defense. umm... so I think it would be a waste of Duncan's all-round skills if he's only used head-2-head against Dampier in offense. ahh, man the Spurs play team ball and that is what won them 4 championships. ehhh, in contrast, the Mavs pay much more money but haven't reaped anything worth the money paid, and they never brewed good chemistry which is one necessary factor for a championship contender.


Caught the guy that didnt watch the Mavs this season.

[timvp]

Game 1:

10. George Hill's Health
Fail. Hill was ineffective in his 18 minutes.

9. Tony Parker vs. Jason Terry
Pass. TP had 18 points and four assists while Jason Terry had five points.

8. Tim Duncan and Foul Trouble
Pass. Tim Duncan played well and was never in foul trouble.

7. Shooters Stepping Up
Fail. No shooter stepped up.

6. Transition Defense
Fail. Mostly due to turnovers, the Spurs struggled to set their defense.

5. Limiting Turnovers
Fail. The Spurs turned it over 17 times.

4. Make Dirk Work
Fail. Dirk did whatever he wanted on his way to 36 points on 14 shots.

3. Pop and Common Sense
Fail. Too much small ball. Too much RMJ and Bogans. Not enough Blair.

2. Rebounding
Fail. Spurs got out-rebounded 45-37. The Mavs have now outrebounded the Spurs in 12 of the last 13 playoff games between the two teams.

1. Manu Ginobili
Pass. He played well. Sloppy yet good.



The Spurs failed 7 of 10. The only three they passed involved the Big 3 :shootme

[polandprzem]

What about them?

The dogs

[neboat]

If Bonner isn't hitting his shots, Pop better be playing Mcdyess extended mins. This is the reason why we got Mcdyess.

And RJ, you better show up. Show some pride and play aggressive.

[DPG21920]

Hill needs to be moved from 10 to like 5. He is crucial in this series on both ends of the court.

[Solid D]

2. Rebounding
Fail. Spurs got out-rebounded 45-37. The Mavs have now outrebounded the Spurs in 12 of the last 13 playoff games between the two teams.

It's easy to get a defensive rebound when you have 4 players in the lane when the shot goes up. Dirk pretty much collapses to the lane any time he is off the ball.

[timvp]

Game 2:

10. George Hill's Health
Pass. He was definitely healthier than Game 1.

9. Tony Parker vs. Jason Terry
Push. TP and JT basically canceled each other out.

8. Tim Duncan and Foul Trouble
Push. TD got in foul trouble early but he stayed out of foul trouble the rest of the way.

7. Shooters Stepping Up
Pass. The Spurs got big shots from a number of players.

6. Transition Defense
Fail. The Mavs scored 18 points in transition.

5. Limiting Turnovers
Pass. The Spurs only had nine turnovers.

4. Make Dirk Work
Pass. McDyess and Bonner did their jobs.

3. Pop and Common Sense
Pass. Pop did what we all wanted.

2. Rebounding
Pass. For only the second time in the last 14 Spurs vs. Mavs playoff games, the Spurs outrebounded the Mavs. Both wins, by the way.

1. Manu Ginobili
Pass. Ginobili continues his stellar play.



7-1-2 equaled a Spurs victory to tie the series.

[quentin_compson]

Yeah, the transition defense in Game 2 was nothing to write home about. I just hope the Spurs come out of the gates with the same kind of intensity they showed in that game tonight.

I don't see why the big three shouldn't continue to play well. They certainly look healthy enough to do so. Dice continuing to do good work against Nowitzki and rebounding well would be huge.
RJ probably won't be playing as well as he did in Game 2, but if he could give us around 15 PPG and not revert to his passive ways, I for one would be pleased.

[igruex]

Now I see why Timvp was so confident with our chances against Dallas. A really healthy Big Three means we only need any other player (Hill, Dice, RJ are more than capable of doing so) to step up for us to get a win.

Considering last two months I guess we expected Manu playing like he's playing, TP is playing well enough and will get better and better, Tim is the surprise, I didn't expect to see him THAT sharp. It's not that he had a good game, I don't even remember last time I saw him totally healthy come playoff time. Even on bad nights he'll make a great impact for us.

[in2deep]

10. George Hill's Health

check



9. Tony Parker vs. Jason Terry

in the end they will cancel each other out



8. Tim Duncan and Foul Trouble

don't think this will be a major issue



7. Shooters Stepping Up

this is the huge questionmark



6. Transition Defense

it will be fine



5. Limiting Turnovers

need to continue doing this



4. Make Dirk Work

done




3. Pop and Common Sense


non issue



2. Rebounding


we should be ok



1. Manu Ginobili


not worried about this

looking good so far so good

[kace]

now that it's over, let's check timvp's key points:



10. George Hill's Health

OK. he was healthy and very good.

9. Tony Parker vs. Jason Terry

OK. without being the best PO TP he can be, he won that matchup quite easily. he averaged almost 16 ppg at 50 % and 5.7 apg versus almost 13 ppg at 40 % FG and 2 apg for Terry. He, as terry often does for the mavs out of the bench, made many clutch shots. Still, i didn't see it as a matchup between those two as timvp did since, even coming from the bench, they don't have the same role in their respective team.

8. Tim Duncan and Foul Trouble
OK for foul trouble. Even if Tim wasn't dominating, he was here on the court for many minutes helping in a lot of areas.

7. Shooters Stepping Up

no. a game won without any 3 pts shot made, mason and bonner horrible in that aspect. Only hill and Manu really helped in that area.

6. Transition Defense

well, good enough to win four games. We lost when it wasn't here in those 2 games.

5. Limiting Turnovers

As transition defense, you see when we succeed in that aspect by looking at the final result of the games. Manu and Tim didn't do so well in that aspect.

4. Make Dirk Work

Dice made a good job, as good as it can be, and even Bonner and Bogans, in their limited time, weren't too bad. dirk was the best player of the serie but still, he wasn't too unstoppable except in game 1.

3. Pop and Common Sense

OK. Pop was quiet and poised.

2. Rebounding

OK.

1. Manu Ginobili

Not really. as expected we needed our big three playing well and help from the supporting cast to win the serie and not to rely only of a super manu like many and timvp implied. Actually, manu was far from being super manu even if he could have been arguably the best spur (very close call since a lot of players stepped up). We were able to win with him playing poorly in some game (game 4 mainly), which is kind of the story of this serie where some players stepped up in some games to make for their teamate quiet night.
Still, manu delivered, as he should like each of the big 3 in order for the spurs to compete in the PO.

[anonoftheinternets]

1. Manu Ginobili

Not really. as expected we needed our big three playing well and help from the supporting cast to win the serie and not to rely only of a super manu like many and timvp implied. Actually, manu was far from being super manu even if he could have been arguably the best spur (very close call since a lot of players stepped up). We were able to win with him playing poorly in some game (game 4 mainly), which is kind of the story of this serie where some players stepped up in some games to make for their teamate quiet night.
Still, manu delivered, as he should like each of the big 3 in order for the spurs to compete in the PO.

I think manu should feel better as his nose improves, he was on an absolute tear before the injury. And we need him @ elite level to compete in these PO.