timvp
04-16-2010, 09:41 PM
Even though some of the faces on the Spurs and Mavs may be new, these two teams have battled so many times in recent years that there will be no mysteries heading into this first round series. The victor will be the team that executes their gameplan the best. What do the Spurs need out of each player? Here's a look:
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Tim Duncan
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/3173.jpg
Usually, the Spurs will look for Tim Duncan to carry the team in the postseason. Against the Mavs, that would be a faulty strategy. Erick Dampier and Brendan Haywood are very good defenders on the low post and will allow the Mavs to defend Duncan without sending many double-teams his way. The Spurs need to keep Duncan involved but he shouldn't force the issue simply due to the fact that he'll be defended one-on-one most of the series.
Duncan can help the most defensively and on the glass. Defending pick-and-rolls, switching out onto shooters and protecting the rim without picking up fouls will be difficult but Duncan has to be up to the challenge. Rebounding-wise, the Spurs need Duncan to average at least a dozen boards this series -- even more if Pop decides to employ an excessive amount of small ball.
Overall, Duncan should concentrate on being highly efficient offensively and active defensively. He'll have opportunities to be great but the Spurs don't need Duncan to carry the team on his shoulders.
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Manu Ginobili
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/3380.jpg
Manu Ginobili, unlike Duncan, can't simply take what is given to him. The Spurs need Ginobili to be a superstar. Not only will Ginobili need to be the top scoring option, he also needs to be the team's main playmaker. Pick-and-rolls with Ginobili at the helm should be the go-to play for the Spurs against the Mavs. Draining three-pointers to spread the court will be vital, as will proving he can score at the rim over the long Mavs frontcourt.
The other end of the court is a bit worrisome for Ginobili. It has always been best for Ginobili to go up a weak offensive player so he can cheat off his man and wreak havoc. Unfortunately, the Mavs have talent across their backcourt. One idea is to let Ginobili defend Jason Kidd most of the time, although that may backfire due to Kidd's ability to knock down three-pointers when Ginobili gambles. If Ginobili is forced to defend Caron Butler or Jason Terry, he obviously can't afford to get in foul trouble.
For the Spurs to win this series, Ginobili may have to be spectacular -- I'm talking 25 points, seven assists and five rebounds per game.
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Tony Parker
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/3527.jpg
With Ginobili taking the lead role, Tony Parker will attempt to spark the bench. As is always the case with Parker, he needs to be aggressive on both ends to be at his best. When he enters the game, Parker needs to literally hit the ground running. He has a chance to be a difference-maker with his ability to get easy buckets in transition and penetrate-and-kick to three-point shooters. Conversely, Parker needs to avoid shooting contested jumpers and forcing shots in the lane against Dallas' bigmen.
Defense is another area Parker can help. He's one of the better options on the Spurs to defend a number of players on the Mavs including Kidd, Terry, J.J. Barea and Roddy Beaubois. If Parker is playing around 30 minutes per game, he should have enough fuel to constantly pressure the ball on the defensive end.
This will be a very interesting series for Parker. How will the Parker-off-the-bench experiment work out? I think it could be a success but it will require Parker avoiding all passiveness and Pop calling his number at the right times.
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George Hill
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/images/basketball/nba/players/4488.jpg
If George Hill is healthy enough to play, he'll be the starting point guard and play a very important role in the series. Defensively is where Hill could hold the most value. If he proves he can handle Butler, that could help Ginobili save his energy for the offensive end. Last postseason, Hill showed he could defend Terry and Barea well -- and he'll be called upon to do that once again.
Offensively, Hill can help the Spurs most in two ways: hitting a high percentage of his three-pointers and getting to the free throw line. When paired with Parker, which could happen quite often due to Dallas' propensity to pair two small guards in the backcourt, Hill should see plenty of opportunities to shoot three-pointers and run the court.
This postseason will be a litmus test for Hill. Going forward is he a good role player or a star in the making? We'll soon have a better idea.
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Richard Jefferson
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/3523.jpg
Richard Jefferson's first year in San Antonio has been a rollercoaster ride -- with more downs than ups. He's had a hard time adjusting to his complementary role with San Antonio. Jefferson's attention to detail has oftentimes been lacking and there are obvious signs that the pressure to perform on a winning team has negatively impacted his play. All that said, his regular season woes will be forgotten if he steps up and plays well in the playoffs.
On offense, he's had the most success when he attacks on fast breaks and when penetrating the lane against a rotating defense. Jefferson gets in trouble when he tries to isolate or relies on outside jumpers. Typically a decent three-point shooter, he's just 10-for-46 from deep since the beginning of March. If the Mavs force him to shoot from the outside and Jefferson doesn't respond with makes, he could see his minutes slashed.
Defensively, he physically appears to be a natural fit to go against Marion. That defensive alignment, however, is dangerous for San Antonio. Marion thrives in transition and getting garbage buckets in the lane. Jefferson tends to have a few lapses per game in transition defense and also tends to be soft in the paint. Those aren't a good pair of attributes when going against Marion. Let's hope Jefferson picks up his level of play on both ends of the floor in the playoffs. Otherwise, the coaching staff may have to abandon Jefferson in the middle of the series.
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Antonio McDyess
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/3004.jpg
Antonio McDyess has a reputation of peaking late in the season. Well, here we are. Against the Mavs, he's going to be hugely important. McDyess will start the game against Dirk Nowitzki while the citizens of San Antonio pray he can do a decent job. In the regular season contests, McDyess had his moments against Nowitzki but those moments rarely lasted long. The two main keys for McDyess against Nowitzki are picking him up early in transition and avoid sending him to the line.
On offense, it's important for McDyess to knock down his midrange jumpers to keep the Mavs honest. It will be equally important for him to be physical and crash the glass on both ends. He has done a good job of pulling down offensive rebounds lately and those should be available versus Nowitzki. If the Mavs decide to front Duncan, McDyess' ability to connect on high-low passes will be tested.
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Matt Bonner
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/3748.jpg
I wish I could say I'm confident that Matt Bonner will atone for the egg he laid last postseason against the Mavs … but I'm not. He just doesn't strike me as a player who has the intestinal fortitude to nail momentous shots in the playoffs, especially on the road. For those who have blocked it from their memory, Bonner shot just 21.7% from the field and 23.1% on three-pointers last year in the playoffs. In the four losses, he was just 2-for-14 from the field and 0-for-9 on threes.
If Bonner surprises me and plays at the top of his game, he'd be extremely helpful. Offensively, the Spurs are at their best when Bonner is on the court pulling an opposing bigman out of the paint. Defensively, he has the potential to do decent work on Nowitzki. In fact, it could turn out he's the best Nowitzki defender on the team.
If Bonner bombs in this series, that would likely be the end of his Spurs career. If he flourishes, he could gain the needed confidence to not back down from big situations from here on out.
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DeJuan Blair
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/4642.jpg
DeJuan Blair put an exclamation point at the end of his rookie season with 27 points, 23 rebounds, four assists and three steals against the Mavs. Despite that impressive performance, he very well could be playing a small role in this playoff series -- especially if Pop continues to play Blair primarily when Duncan is off the court. But you'd think that even the most cynical of coaching staffs had to be intrigued with how much Blair dominated in the finale.
In the minutes he gets, Blair should continue his highly productive play. The Mavs have length but they aren't overly mean on the frontline. The main problem Blair will face is his defensive matchup. If paired with Duncan, that would likely leave Blair on Nowitzki. Though Blair has quick feet, Nowitzki's length, craftiness and ability to draw contact could make it an impossible guard for the rookie.
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Keith Bogans
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/3746.jpg
Keith Bogans could play five minutes per game this series ... or he could play 30 minutes per game. It all depends on how the players ahead of Bogans perform. For example, if Jefferson shows too much of an airhead tendency to keep Marion under wraps, Bogans will be called to duty. Or, if neither Hill nor Ginobili can slow Butler, that job will likely become Bogans' challenge.
Due to the above circumstances, the less we see of Bogans this series, the better. When he's out on the court, he needs to bring his defensive toughness in addition to gritty rebounding. On the offensive end, Bogans will have value if he can sink three-pointers. From beyond the arc, he's been extremely streaky. Let's hope he is streaking in the right direction during the postseason.
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Roger Mason, Jr.
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/images/basketball/nba/players/3628.jpg
Excuse the honesty, but Roger Mason, Jr. shouldn't see playing time this series. Defensively, there is simply no one for Mason to defend. Last postseason, the Dallas guards took turns abusing him. Now that the Mavs have even more talent at their swingman positions, Mason's lack of defense will be exposed to an even higher degree.
On the scoring end of the court, Mason might be even worse. Since the All-Star break, Mason is shooting 31.4% from the floor and 24.5% on three-pointers. Considering that his job on the offensive end is to be a marksman from deep, how exactly is he supposed to help the Spurs against the Mavs? That's a question I hope Pop doesn't try to answer.
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Garrett Temple
http://img685.imageshack.us/img685/2170/garretttempleface.jpg
Garrett Temple has come out of nowhere to become a player the Spurs might actually play during the postseason. In fact, if Hill is too hurt to suit up for Game 1, there's a good chance Temple would be inserted into the starting lineup. In his four games as starter for the Spurs, Temple averaged 11.3 points, 3.3 rebounds and 1.5 assists while shooting 51.7% from the field and 53.9% on three-pointers.
All in all, I like Temple's game. On offense, he's a good ballhandler for his size (6-foot-6), plays with good pace, uses his speed and long limbs to score in transition, and shoots three-pointers well from the corners. Defensively, he competes with toughness, makes smart rotations and uses his length to challenge shots. Temple oozes fundamentals and while he's not overly talented, he's probably someone who won't hurt the Spurs if he's thrown into the fire.
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Malik Hairston
http://img14.imageshack.us/img14/8769/malikhairstongt.jpg
Malik Hairston missed the last game of the regular season due to a sprained ankle. Even if he's healthy in time for the first round series, I don't expect him to see much time on the court. For Hairston to get minutes, Pop would have to lose trust in Bogans as the team's perimeter defensive stopper. At the end of quarters, Hairston may be inserted for a defensive possessions -- but that's about it.
Next year will be the year Hairston should get his chance. For now, Hairston has intriguing yet raw potential. He can get to the basket and finish with athleticism, though he needs to refine his ballhandling and outside shot. Defensively, he's very good at contesting shots and rebounding … but needs to rotate faster and do a better job of staying in front of his man. He may become a legit NBA player, however this is very unlikely to be the stage he proves or disproves that assertion.
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Ian Mahinmi
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/3954.jpg
Ian Mahinmi is another player who is unlikely to see action. Pop rarely gave him significant time during pressure-free regular season games, why would he start now? It would take either extreme desperation or excessive foul trouble for Mahinmi to see the floor in a close game.
If he does play, Mahinmi has proven he can make things happen. He's a good rebounder and an intimidator around the rim. On the other end, he's comfortable with his back to the basket and even has a face-up jumper. I like him as a prospect but his game is so unpolished (due to a lack of playing time) that he's not ready for this level of play. His opportunities will come in forthcoming years -- hopefully in silver and black.
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Top Ten Keys - Spurs vs. Mavs 2010 Playoff Preview (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=151255)
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Tim Duncan
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/3173.jpg
Usually, the Spurs will look for Tim Duncan to carry the team in the postseason. Against the Mavs, that would be a faulty strategy. Erick Dampier and Brendan Haywood are very good defenders on the low post and will allow the Mavs to defend Duncan without sending many double-teams his way. The Spurs need to keep Duncan involved but he shouldn't force the issue simply due to the fact that he'll be defended one-on-one most of the series.
Duncan can help the most defensively and on the glass. Defending pick-and-rolls, switching out onto shooters and protecting the rim without picking up fouls will be difficult but Duncan has to be up to the challenge. Rebounding-wise, the Spurs need Duncan to average at least a dozen boards this series -- even more if Pop decides to employ an excessive amount of small ball.
Overall, Duncan should concentrate on being highly efficient offensively and active defensively. He'll have opportunities to be great but the Spurs don't need Duncan to carry the team on his shoulders.
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Manu Ginobili
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/3380.jpg
Manu Ginobili, unlike Duncan, can't simply take what is given to him. The Spurs need Ginobili to be a superstar. Not only will Ginobili need to be the top scoring option, he also needs to be the team's main playmaker. Pick-and-rolls with Ginobili at the helm should be the go-to play for the Spurs against the Mavs. Draining three-pointers to spread the court will be vital, as will proving he can score at the rim over the long Mavs frontcourt.
The other end of the court is a bit worrisome for Ginobili. It has always been best for Ginobili to go up a weak offensive player so he can cheat off his man and wreak havoc. Unfortunately, the Mavs have talent across their backcourt. One idea is to let Ginobili defend Jason Kidd most of the time, although that may backfire due to Kidd's ability to knock down three-pointers when Ginobili gambles. If Ginobili is forced to defend Caron Butler or Jason Terry, he obviously can't afford to get in foul trouble.
For the Spurs to win this series, Ginobili may have to be spectacular -- I'm talking 25 points, seven assists and five rebounds per game.
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Tony Parker
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/3527.jpg
With Ginobili taking the lead role, Tony Parker will attempt to spark the bench. As is always the case with Parker, he needs to be aggressive on both ends to be at his best. When he enters the game, Parker needs to literally hit the ground running. He has a chance to be a difference-maker with his ability to get easy buckets in transition and penetrate-and-kick to three-point shooters. Conversely, Parker needs to avoid shooting contested jumpers and forcing shots in the lane against Dallas' bigmen.
Defense is another area Parker can help. He's one of the better options on the Spurs to defend a number of players on the Mavs including Kidd, Terry, J.J. Barea and Roddy Beaubois. If Parker is playing around 30 minutes per game, he should have enough fuel to constantly pressure the ball on the defensive end.
This will be a very interesting series for Parker. How will the Parker-off-the-bench experiment work out? I think it could be a success but it will require Parker avoiding all passiveness and Pop calling his number at the right times.
-------------------------------
George Hill
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/images/basketball/nba/players/4488.jpg
If George Hill is healthy enough to play, he'll be the starting point guard and play a very important role in the series. Defensively is where Hill could hold the most value. If he proves he can handle Butler, that could help Ginobili save his energy for the offensive end. Last postseason, Hill showed he could defend Terry and Barea well -- and he'll be called upon to do that once again.
Offensively, Hill can help the Spurs most in two ways: hitting a high percentage of his three-pointers and getting to the free throw line. When paired with Parker, which could happen quite often due to Dallas' propensity to pair two small guards in the backcourt, Hill should see plenty of opportunities to shoot three-pointers and run the court.
This postseason will be a litmus test for Hill. Going forward is he a good role player or a star in the making? We'll soon have a better idea.
-------------------------------
Richard Jefferson
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/3523.jpg
Richard Jefferson's first year in San Antonio has been a rollercoaster ride -- with more downs than ups. He's had a hard time adjusting to his complementary role with San Antonio. Jefferson's attention to detail has oftentimes been lacking and there are obvious signs that the pressure to perform on a winning team has negatively impacted his play. All that said, his regular season woes will be forgotten if he steps up and plays well in the playoffs.
On offense, he's had the most success when he attacks on fast breaks and when penetrating the lane against a rotating defense. Jefferson gets in trouble when he tries to isolate or relies on outside jumpers. Typically a decent three-point shooter, he's just 10-for-46 from deep since the beginning of March. If the Mavs force him to shoot from the outside and Jefferson doesn't respond with makes, he could see his minutes slashed.
Defensively, he physically appears to be a natural fit to go against Marion. That defensive alignment, however, is dangerous for San Antonio. Marion thrives in transition and getting garbage buckets in the lane. Jefferson tends to have a few lapses per game in transition defense and also tends to be soft in the paint. Those aren't a good pair of attributes when going against Marion. Let's hope Jefferson picks up his level of play on both ends of the floor in the playoffs. Otherwise, the coaching staff may have to abandon Jefferson in the middle of the series.
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Antonio McDyess
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/3004.jpg
Antonio McDyess has a reputation of peaking late in the season. Well, here we are. Against the Mavs, he's going to be hugely important. McDyess will start the game against Dirk Nowitzki while the citizens of San Antonio pray he can do a decent job. In the regular season contests, McDyess had his moments against Nowitzki but those moments rarely lasted long. The two main keys for McDyess against Nowitzki are picking him up early in transition and avoid sending him to the line.
On offense, it's important for McDyess to knock down his midrange jumpers to keep the Mavs honest. It will be equally important for him to be physical and crash the glass on both ends. He has done a good job of pulling down offensive rebounds lately and those should be available versus Nowitzki. If the Mavs decide to front Duncan, McDyess' ability to connect on high-low passes will be tested.
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Matt Bonner
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/3748.jpg
I wish I could say I'm confident that Matt Bonner will atone for the egg he laid last postseason against the Mavs … but I'm not. He just doesn't strike me as a player who has the intestinal fortitude to nail momentous shots in the playoffs, especially on the road. For those who have blocked it from their memory, Bonner shot just 21.7% from the field and 23.1% on three-pointers last year in the playoffs. In the four losses, he was just 2-for-14 from the field and 0-for-9 on threes.
If Bonner surprises me and plays at the top of his game, he'd be extremely helpful. Offensively, the Spurs are at their best when Bonner is on the court pulling an opposing bigman out of the paint. Defensively, he has the potential to do decent work on Nowitzki. In fact, it could turn out he's the best Nowitzki defender on the team.
If Bonner bombs in this series, that would likely be the end of his Spurs career. If he flourishes, he could gain the needed confidence to not back down from big situations from here on out.
-------------------------------
DeJuan Blair
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/4642.jpg
DeJuan Blair put an exclamation point at the end of his rookie season with 27 points, 23 rebounds, four assists and three steals against the Mavs. Despite that impressive performance, he very well could be playing a small role in this playoff series -- especially if Pop continues to play Blair primarily when Duncan is off the court. But you'd think that even the most cynical of coaching staffs had to be intrigued with how much Blair dominated in the finale.
In the minutes he gets, Blair should continue his highly productive play. The Mavs have length but they aren't overly mean on the frontline. The main problem Blair will face is his defensive matchup. If paired with Duncan, that would likely leave Blair on Nowitzki. Though Blair has quick feet, Nowitzki's length, craftiness and ability to draw contact could make it an impossible guard for the rookie.
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Keith Bogans
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/3746.jpg
Keith Bogans could play five minutes per game this series ... or he could play 30 minutes per game. It all depends on how the players ahead of Bogans perform. For example, if Jefferson shows too much of an airhead tendency to keep Marion under wraps, Bogans will be called to duty. Or, if neither Hill nor Ginobili can slow Butler, that job will likely become Bogans' challenge.
Due to the above circumstances, the less we see of Bogans this series, the better. When he's out on the court, he needs to bring his defensive toughness in addition to gritty rebounding. On the offensive end, Bogans will have value if he can sink three-pointers. From beyond the arc, he's been extremely streaky. Let's hope he is streaking in the right direction during the postseason.
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Roger Mason, Jr.
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/images/basketball/nba/players/3628.jpg
Excuse the honesty, but Roger Mason, Jr. shouldn't see playing time this series. Defensively, there is simply no one for Mason to defend. Last postseason, the Dallas guards took turns abusing him. Now that the Mavs have even more talent at their swingman positions, Mason's lack of defense will be exposed to an even higher degree.
On the scoring end of the court, Mason might be even worse. Since the All-Star break, Mason is shooting 31.4% from the floor and 24.5% on three-pointers. Considering that his job on the offensive end is to be a marksman from deep, how exactly is he supposed to help the Spurs against the Mavs? That's a question I hope Pop doesn't try to answer.
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Garrett Temple
http://img685.imageshack.us/img685/2170/garretttempleface.jpg
Garrett Temple has come out of nowhere to become a player the Spurs might actually play during the postseason. In fact, if Hill is too hurt to suit up for Game 1, there's a good chance Temple would be inserted into the starting lineup. In his four games as starter for the Spurs, Temple averaged 11.3 points, 3.3 rebounds and 1.5 assists while shooting 51.7% from the field and 53.9% on three-pointers.
All in all, I like Temple's game. On offense, he's a good ballhandler for his size (6-foot-6), plays with good pace, uses his speed and long limbs to score in transition, and shoots three-pointers well from the corners. Defensively, he competes with toughness, makes smart rotations and uses his length to challenge shots. Temple oozes fundamentals and while he's not overly talented, he's probably someone who won't hurt the Spurs if he's thrown into the fire.
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Malik Hairston
http://img14.imageshack.us/img14/8769/malikhairstongt.jpg
Malik Hairston missed the last game of the regular season due to a sprained ankle. Even if he's healthy in time for the first round series, I don't expect him to see much time on the court. For Hairston to get minutes, Pop would have to lose trust in Bogans as the team's perimeter defensive stopper. At the end of quarters, Hairston may be inserted for a defensive possessions -- but that's about it.
Next year will be the year Hairston should get his chance. For now, Hairston has intriguing yet raw potential. He can get to the basket and finish with athleticism, though he needs to refine his ballhandling and outside shot. Defensively, he's very good at contesting shots and rebounding … but needs to rotate faster and do a better job of staying in front of his man. He may become a legit NBA player, however this is very unlikely to be the stage he proves or disproves that assertion.
-------------------------------
Ian Mahinmi
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/3954.jpg
Ian Mahinmi is another player who is unlikely to see action. Pop rarely gave him significant time during pressure-free regular season games, why would he start now? It would take either extreme desperation or excessive foul trouble for Mahinmi to see the floor in a close game.
If he does play, Mahinmi has proven he can make things happen. He's a good rebounder and an intimidator around the rim. On the other end, he's comfortable with his back to the basket and even has a face-up jumper. I like him as a prospect but his game is so unpolished (due to a lack of playing time) that he's not ready for this level of play. His opportunities will come in forthcoming years -- hopefully in silver and black.
-------------------------------
Top Ten Keys - Spurs vs. Mavs 2010 Playoff Preview (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=151255)