lurker23
04-17-2010, 11:09 AM
This thread is a far cry from the threads I normally make. Usually my threads have to do with detailed analysis or player evaluation. In this case, I decided to take a shot at pure, unadulterated, deterministic predictions. My predictions will obviously be littered with my own biases, inherent flaws, and Spurs homerism. I'm not sure how good I'll be at this, but if I fall flat on my face publicly, everyone can tell me to go back to my comfort zone. Without further ado, here's what (I think) will happen in the series between the Spurs and the Mavs:
-Manu Ginobili will be the MVP of the series. He will have 2 games of 32 points or greater, and 3 other games in the 20 point range. At least one win for the Spurs will be in large part due to a Ginobili 3-point play (traditional or long-range) in the last 3 minutes of the game.
-Dirk Nowitzki will be near unstoppable at times against the Spurs, and will average 28 ppg. The Spurs will throw at least 6 different defenders at him in the course of the series, and none will have consistent success. The best success against him in short stretches will actually be a smaller player, either Keith Bogans or George Hill. However, more often than not, Pop will put a big on Dirk; of these, Matt Bonner will be the most physical with Dirk, but he will hit at least a few difficult shots over Bonner's outstretched hands.
-Speaking of Matt Bonner, despite many doubters of his ability to play in the post-season, he will have a solid series. Nothing spectacular, but he will shoot 10 of 25 (40%) from three-point range, shoot 47% from the field, and average his usual 3.5 rpg. Very few of his three point makes will come in the 4th quarter, but he will play a role in keeping the Spurs in games in the 2nd and 3rd quarters.
-Jason Terry will again be a thorn in the side of the Spurs. He will hit some ridiculous shots, and be a key component in at least one Mavericks win. He will do his best to play the Josh Howard role of yesteryear, being the X Factor that takes down the Spurs. He will succeed to a point, as for the most part he will be the 2nd best Maverick on the court, 18 ppg.
-Other than Manu Ginobili and the ever-steady Tim Duncan, George Hill will be the Spurs star of the series. As a starter, he will average 15.5 points per game. Commentators will swoon over him, and when he gets 3rd place in the Most Improved Player voting, at least one announcer will comment that perhaps the award should have gone to Mr. George Hill after all.
-Caron Butler will be a relative non-factor on the offensive end for the Mavericks. Slowed by a Spurs defensive attack led by George Hill, combined with a lingering hip strain, Butler may have a good game or two, but in the end will average 13 ppg on a disappointing 39% from the field.
-I can't talk about everyone in this post, so I'll just make a few short notes about those who I have left out.
Parker: uses his speed well, 16.0 ppg.
Jefferson: uneven, but has some success on the fast break.
McDyess: solid, jumper streaky but with more ups than downs.
Blair: beast one game, rookie the next.
Mason/Bogans: spot minutes, some effectiveness.
Marion: short spurts of annoyance, mostly ineffective.
Haywood: darn good player, gets 3 double-doubles through the series.
Dampier: averages 2 blocks per game, but is MIA against Parker and Ginobili penetration late in games.
Beaubois: 1/2 surprisingly good, 1/2 rookie in headlights.
Barea: minutes increase through the series as Mavs search for answers to Spurs backcourt.
Kidd: the true X-Factor in the series, plays very well, but in the end can't hit enough 3-pointers to save the Mavericks.
-Spurs in 6.
-Manu Ginobili will be the MVP of the series. He will have 2 games of 32 points or greater, and 3 other games in the 20 point range. At least one win for the Spurs will be in large part due to a Ginobili 3-point play (traditional or long-range) in the last 3 minutes of the game.
-Dirk Nowitzki will be near unstoppable at times against the Spurs, and will average 28 ppg. The Spurs will throw at least 6 different defenders at him in the course of the series, and none will have consistent success. The best success against him in short stretches will actually be a smaller player, either Keith Bogans or George Hill. However, more often than not, Pop will put a big on Dirk; of these, Matt Bonner will be the most physical with Dirk, but he will hit at least a few difficult shots over Bonner's outstretched hands.
-Speaking of Matt Bonner, despite many doubters of his ability to play in the post-season, he will have a solid series. Nothing spectacular, but he will shoot 10 of 25 (40%) from three-point range, shoot 47% from the field, and average his usual 3.5 rpg. Very few of his three point makes will come in the 4th quarter, but he will play a role in keeping the Spurs in games in the 2nd and 3rd quarters.
-Jason Terry will again be a thorn in the side of the Spurs. He will hit some ridiculous shots, and be a key component in at least one Mavericks win. He will do his best to play the Josh Howard role of yesteryear, being the X Factor that takes down the Spurs. He will succeed to a point, as for the most part he will be the 2nd best Maverick on the court, 18 ppg.
-Other than Manu Ginobili and the ever-steady Tim Duncan, George Hill will be the Spurs star of the series. As a starter, he will average 15.5 points per game. Commentators will swoon over him, and when he gets 3rd place in the Most Improved Player voting, at least one announcer will comment that perhaps the award should have gone to Mr. George Hill after all.
-Caron Butler will be a relative non-factor on the offensive end for the Mavericks. Slowed by a Spurs defensive attack led by George Hill, combined with a lingering hip strain, Butler may have a good game or two, but in the end will average 13 ppg on a disappointing 39% from the field.
-I can't talk about everyone in this post, so I'll just make a few short notes about those who I have left out.
Parker: uses his speed well, 16.0 ppg.
Jefferson: uneven, but has some success on the fast break.
McDyess: solid, jumper streaky but with more ups than downs.
Blair: beast one game, rookie the next.
Mason/Bogans: spot minutes, some effectiveness.
Marion: short spurts of annoyance, mostly ineffective.
Haywood: darn good player, gets 3 double-doubles through the series.
Dampier: averages 2 blocks per game, but is MIA against Parker and Ginobili penetration late in games.
Beaubois: 1/2 surprisingly good, 1/2 rookie in headlights.
Barea: minutes increase through the series as Mavs search for answers to Spurs backcourt.
Kidd: the true X-Factor in the series, plays very well, but in the end can't hit enough 3-pointers to save the Mavericks.
-Spurs in 6.