SinBAD
04-17-2010, 07:24 PM
2009:
it seems only fitting that the San Antonio Spurs and Dallas Mavericks will kick off the 2009 NBA Playoffs against each other. Why waste time, right? Sooner or later they were bound to meet. When Dallas advanced to the NBA Finals in 2006 they had to get past the Spurs to get to the Western Conference Finals. In 2003, when the Spurs went on to win the championship, they had to beat the Mavericks in the Western Conference Finals. In 2001 the Spurs beat the Mavericks in the Western Conference Semfinals.
Some of the faces have changed, but it's safe to say Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Michael Finley, Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Terry, and Erick Dampier know each other all too well. Expect this to be a knock-down, drag-out series with more than a few scrimishes, officiating controversies, and last-second plays that determine games.
San Antonio is without star shooting guard Manu Ginobili, but that shouldn't feel too foreign for the Spurs. They played three of their four regular-season games against Dallas without him, with Dallas going 2-1 in those games. The Mavs are a little banged up, as well, with Josh Howard trying to play on an ankle that will require offseason surgery. Here's a look at how the teams match up by position:
Point Guard: Tony Parker vs. Jason Kidd - Every time people have written off the Spurs this season Tony Parker has simply turned his game up a notch and kept the team winning. No Duncan? No Ginobili? No problem. More often as not, the Spurs have continued to win despite key players being out of the lineup because Parker has carried them. Parker averaged 31.25 points and 7.25 assists and one steal per game against Dallas this year, and the Mavs' ability to contain him will absolutely be the key to this series. Jason Kidd will play the point on the offensive end, but expect to see the smaller, quicker JJ Barea defending Parker for long stretches of games. Kidd simply isn't quick enough. That doesn't mean Kidd won't be a factor. He absolutely will. But it will be in other ways. Rick Carlisle recently said Kidd's the only player in the league who can dominate a game and only score three points. He's absolutely right. Kidd's playmaking will be the key for Dallas if they're to win the series. Kidd, who averaged 13 points, 8.8 assists, 7.25 rebounds and 1.5 steals per game against the Spurs this season, will use his size against Parker when they are matched up against each other. Kidd is still very good, but Parker should be an MVP candidate, and was the Finals MVP two seasons ago. He gets the edge here.
Advantage: San Antonio
Shooting Guard: Roger Mason vs. Antoine Wright - Antoine Wright doesn't put up big numbers, but he's been the guy Dallas has leaned on all season on the defensive end of the court. He'll certainly give Roger Mason fits, as Wright's a very good position defender. Wright became the team's full-time starter in January, and through April, when the lineups got screwy again, he was averaging nine points per contest. Still, it's his defense that will keep him on the court for Rick Carlisle. Roger Mason is having his best NBA season by far, averaging 11.8 points per game and shooting over 42% from the field and from the arch. He's been a big part of why the Spurs continued to win through long stretches of games without Manu Ginobili. This match-up isn't exactly cut-and-dried, as Jason Kidd may start on Mason if Barea starts against Parker. Jason Terry will also play a significant number of minutes at the two. Because the Mavs will switch things up so much, it's hard to fairly give an advantage based on the two alone.
Advantage: PUSH
Small Forward: Michael Finley vs. Josh Howard – Say what you want about Michael Finley, but he's proven he still had a lot of good basketball left in him when he was cut by the Mavs. Gregg Popovich calls Finley his best perimeter player, and while Fin doesn't fly through the air with the greatest of ease any more, he can still bury the three ball with the best of them. He was over 41% for the season, and he's one of those guys who cranks things up a notch in the postseason. Nonetheless, Howard would normally have a huge edge here. For stretches of 2008-09 Howard has looked more like the All-Star from two seasons ago than the lame duck from last year, but he does have a severely-sprained ankle that will limit his effectiveness in the postseason. He's shown a lot of heart playing through it late in the season, but he's one bad landing from being out of this series. Still, the Mavs go as Howard goes. He's the one who gets them started and he's the one they rally around. If he's able to play big minutes, he's the deciding factor.
Advantage: Dallas
Power Forward: Dirk Nowitzki vs. Matt Bonner - Technically, Tim Duncan is the power forward for the Spurs, but let's be honest. Bonner is your forward. You can absolutely count on the Mavs putting Erick Dampier on Duncan in the post, while Nowitzki will be happy to roam the perimeter against the Spurs' new Big Shot Bo(nner). Bonner is not the defender that Robert Horry was for so many years, so the Spurs are going to have to try a lot of tricks to contain Nowitzki. Expect to see Bruce Bowen on him, you'll see Finley on him, Drew Gooden will do his time, Duncan will spend some time on him, even Gregg Popovich might get out and guard Dirk a couple of times. At the end of the day, the Spurs have no answer for Nowitzki, who averaged 25.75 points and 9.75 rebounds per game against them this season. Bonner managed just 8.75 points and four rebounds against the Mavericks this year.
Advantage: Dallas
Center: Tim Duncan vs. Erick Dampier - As much as Nowitzki has an advantage over Bonner and the Spurs' cast of forwards, Tim Duncan has a similar advantage at the center position. Dampier has played a reduced role for the Mavs this season, playing his fewest minutes per game (23) since his rookie season. Part of it is because Damp's had some nagging knee pain, but a bigger part is that the NBA has moved on from the age of the dinosaur center. Damp is a walking fossil. You'll see a lot of Bradon Bass against Duncan and Ryan Hollins has been playing well of late, so you'll see him, too. James Singleton has had a great deal of success against big men, and Carlisle will no doubt give him a crack at Duncan.That said, Dampier is the Mavericks' best defense against the driving Tony Parker, so whether or not he's able to stop Duncan, he may get a few extra minutes as Carisle tries to deter Parker from running a lay-up drill. Duncan's had some knee issues, too, but this is the playoffs. He won't feel the pain until the Spurs have been eliminated . . .or won another championship.
Advantage: San Antonio
Bench: Terry/Bass/Barea/Hollins/Singleton vs. Gooden/Bowen/Thomas/Udoka - One thing we know coming in: Jason Terry will outscore all of San Antonio's bench every game. Count on that. Easily the league's top sixth man, Jet has taken his game to a new level this season. He's hit more game-winners than Nowitzki on the season and has been as clutch as any player in the league. If the ball's in his hands with the game on the line, the Mavs - including Nowitzki - are confident he'll make the right play. Brandon Bass' days of wallowing on the bench in New Orleans are over. He's been a huge factor for the Mavs, and this has been his best season. He has his mental lapses, but when he's focused he's a force in the paint. Hollins has shown signs of late, most recently having a strong showing against Yao Ming, and Singleton has become Carlisle's go-to guy at center in many situations. Finally, don't turn your back on JJ Barea. The Puerto Rican Blur can score in buches, and is money from downtown. He's had his share of 20-point games, and he's the one Dallas will look to when it comes to tripping up Parker.
San Antonio's bench isn't as much of a factor, but that's because their starters will be more involved in the games. While Dallas has some weaknesses in the starting lineup which require constant adjustments, the Spurs have a solid starting group that doesn't need a ton of supplementation. They'll certainly need someone to step up, and Drew Gooden is the most likely candidate, as they seek to contain Nowitzki, expect Popovich to force the Mavs to adjust to his own team's strengths.
Advantage: Dallas
Coaching: Gregg Popovich vs. Rick Carlisle - It took Carlisle a while to figure out what he had, and for the team to adjust to his coaching style, but by the end of the season the Mavericks were as good as any team in the league. They blew out a Suns team that had to have a win to keep their playoff hopes alive, then blew out a Jazz team that was trying to stay out of the eighth seed. They lost two games in April, and one of those was without Josh Howard. They finished the season on a very high note, beating the Houston Rockets to claim the sixth-seed in the West. Carlisle isn't nearly as dynamic as Avery Johnson, but he's getting his message across and his team is responding. That said, he's no Gregg Popovich. Pop is one of the best coaches in the history of the NBA, and even without Manu Ginobli you can bet he'll have his team ready to play. People outside of San Antonio and Dallas have already written off the Spurs, but as long as Pop is at the helm they'll be ready and willing to throw down with anyone.
Advantage: San Antonio
Health will definitely play a role in this series. Josh Howard's ankle will absolutely determine whether or not the Mavericks advance, while the absence of Ginobili and the condition of Duncan's knees will be a factor for San Antonio. At the end of the day, Carisle's abililty to exploit match-ups may be the thing that tips the balance of this series. Injuries have forced him to use a lot of different lineups this season, and that will likely pay off now. The Mavericks can go small and run circles around any team in the league. It's probably not a championship strategy, but it could be enough to get them past San Antonio.
Final Prediction: Mavericks in 7
AND WE LOST in 5
NOW:
The San Antonio Spurs and Dallas Mavericks are certainly no strangers to each other. Last season the Mavericks eliminated the Spurs in the first round of the playoffs 4-1, in 2006 the Mavericks eliminated San Antonio in the second round 4-3, in 2003 the Spurs beat the Mavs 4-2 in the Western Conference Finals and in 2001 the Spurs got the best of the Mavericks 4-1 in the second round. It seems the playoffs just wouldn't be the playoffs if Tim Duncan and Dirk Nowitzki didn't go head-to-head at some point.
The Spurs are obviously the more successful franchise, with four titles during the Tim Duncan era, and that's a fact the Mavericks are quick to point out as they prepare for this series with their cross-state rivals. The Mavericks may be the second seed and the Spurs may be the seventh, but the Mavs are taking nothing for granted. They know that Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili can be a handful, and Richard Jefferson's improved play of late will only add to the challenge.
Age and injuries have taken their toll on the Spurs this season, with Duncan looking a little slower and injuries forcing both Parker and George Hill out of the lineup recently. Ginobili has been on a tear, though, and thanks to his spectacular play the Spurs are playing some of their best basketball of the season heading into the playoffs . . .but what else is new?
The Mavericks have been aggressive, as always, in looking to improve the team, and the additions of Brendan Haywood, Caron Butler and DeShawn Stevenson have made them markedly better on the defensive end. They don't always remember to play defense, but when they do they can be devastatingly good. When they get stops they set loose their running game, and the Mavs' running game is as good as any in the NBA outside of maybe Phoenix. The Spurs, of course, specialize in slowing things down and forcing teams away from their strengths. Slow down the Mavericks, force them to run half-court sets, and you can beat them.
Point Guard: Jason Kidd vs. Tony Parker - Gregg Popovich recently joked that he thought Jason Kidd must have found some kind of fountain of youth last summer in preparing for this season, and all indications are that he's right. Kidd's 10.3 points, 9.1 assists and 5.6 rebounds per game has been pretty much par for the course, but his 46% shooting from three-point range is by far the best of his career. His man-on defense has fallen off, but he's still as good in the passing lanes and at running the offense as he's ever been.
Parker, of course, has had a tough season with injuries. Plantar fasciitis slowed him considerably early in the season and then he missed 16 games with a hand injury more recently. Normally this match-up would be all Parker, who has risen to near-MVP status over the last couple of seasons, but he's been a shadow of that player in 2009-10. He's still playing his way back into shape, and that's going to be an issue for the Spurs. A healthy Tony Parker eats Kidd alive, but at this point his injury status and Kidd's ridiculous basketball IQ make this match-up pretty even.
Advantage: Even
Shooting Guard: Manu Ginobili vs. Caron Butler - In the past the Spurs, like so many other teams, have owned the Mavericks at the two-guard spot. Jason Terry is a terrific player and the second-best scorer on the team, but he's too short to effectively stop bigger players like Ginobili. Now, with Butler in the mix, the Mavs have a real stopper on the defensive end. What's more, Butler is more than capable of putting 20 points on the board. Still, as good as Butler is, he's not playing as well as Ginobili.
When Tony Parker went down with a hand injury Ginobili seemed to decide he was going to carry the team. He averaged better than 20 points per game in March and April and took the Spurs from playoff hopefuls to the thick of the Western Conference playoff race. Ginobili is as clutch as they come, and can kill a team with a huge three or blow by everyone for an and-one at the rim. At least one game in this series will be determined by Ginobili's play in the waning seconds. Mark it down.
Advantage: Spurs
Small Forward: Shawn Marion vs. Richard Jefferson - Richard Jefferson was supposed to be championship revival piece for San Antonio. His youth and energy was supposed revitalize the Spurs and help them dominate the Western Conference once more. Instead, he struggled to find his role on a team with three other stars and he's posted his worst season since he was a rookie in New Jersey in 2001-02. That said, he's got better as the season's end drew near. With Parker out of the mix the Spurs put the ball in Jefferson's hands more and the results were quite good. Still, he's only giving the Spurs roughly 12 points per game going into postseason play.
Shawn Marion has not been the high-flying Marion we all got used to seeing in Phoenix, and he's had his share of injuries this season. He sat out a couple of games down the stretch with an oblique injury, but does seem to be healthy heading into the playoffs. Like Jefferson, Marion posted his worst season since his rookie year in 2009-10 and it's clear parts of his game are fading. He's no longer a threat from three-point range and his rebounding has fallen off, but he's still a lethal weapon in the open court and his defense is a factor every single night.
Advantage: Even
Power Forward: Dirk Nowitzki vs. Tim Duncan - This is it. The marquee match-up pits two former MVP's and frequent foes against each other, but these two players couldn't be much different. Duncan is the old-school bruising power forward, preferring to roam the paint and control the glass, while Nowitzki does most of his damage with his mid-range game and can also drill a huge three when needed. While age and injuries have slowed Duncan noticeably, Nowitzki is still in top form, and should be considered among the candidates for MVP this season.
Nowitzki averaged 25.0 points per game this season, his best per-game average since he led the Mavericks to the NBA Finals and won league MVP in 2006. He shot 48% from the field, 42% from three and 91% from the foul line. In other words, it was a typical year for Nowitzki, who hasn't lost a single step. As April arrived Nowitzki began his warm-up for the playoffs, averaging 28.4 points and 8.3 rebounds while shooting 52% from the field, 73% from three, and hitting every single one of his 55 free throw attempts. Dirk Nowitzki is ready for the playoffs and determined to win a championship. Fear him.
Duncan's pre-playoff run has been significantly less impressive than Nowitzki's. In 17 games in March, Duncan managed just 14.2 points per game, and while he upped that to 17.1 in April, Duncan still looks considerably slower than the Tim Duncan we've become accustomed to seeing dominate every team in site come playoff time. If the Spurs have another championship run in them, it's going to be up to Parker, Ginobili and Jefferson to shoulder the lion's share of the load. Duncan doesn't seem to be up to it any more, and will need help in the effort to stop Nowitzki.
Advantage: Mavericks
Center: Antonio McDyess vs. Erick Dampier/Brendan Haywood - The Mavericks actually have two starting centers, and head coach Rick Carlisle often switches it up. Dampier seems to be the more likely starter as the playoffs begin, as he's started more recently, but the Spurs could see either of them at any given time.
Erick Dampier is the best screener the Mavs have, and when he's on the floor you can expect Dallas to run a lot of screen-rolls or pick-and-pops. Damp is not as effective on the offensive end, and doesn't do very well when he's away from the basket on the defensive end. Given McDyess' propensity for the mid-range jumper, we might see Nowitzki on McDyess and Damp covering Duncan in the post. When Haywood checks in the Mavs have a more dynamic offensive force, and Haywood has been fantastic on the defensive end and on the glass for Dallas, as well.
Like Duncan, McDyess is showing his age, and he's the center of last resort for San Antonio. They sometimes run Matt Bonner at center, and sometimes rookie DeJuan Blair gets the call, as well, but no matter who they run at the five Dallas has an advantage. McDyess is a far cry from the offensive machine he was in his prime. He's basically a solid back-up center at this stage of his career, but he starts nonetheless. It might actually be interesting to see Blair go against the Mavs' front line, but we'll see how Popovich plays it.
Advantage: Mavericks
Bench: Jason Terry gives the Mavericks a threat that the entire collective of the Spurs' reserves doesn't bring to the table. Manu Ginobili used to be the same kind of force for the Spurs, but his move to the starting lineup also meant the second unit lost its luster. George Hill is San Antonio's most important option off the bench, but his injured ankle could hamper his play considerably. DeJuan Blair is arguably the steal of the 2009 NBA Draft and can also put up huge numbers - as Dallas learned in their final game of the regular season. Matt Bonner's three-point shot is something you have to be concerned about and Roger Mason has to be respected, but with Ginobili starting the Spurs don't have an impact player coming in with the second unit.
When the Mavericks go to the bench they have a lot of different weapons to choose from, and all of them have had their moments this season. Jason Terry needs no introduction, and is essentially Rick Carlisle's sixth starter. He's going to log starter's minutes and he will go for 20 more often than not. JJ Barea will also see significant minutes off the bench, and Roddy Beaubois will spend time at both guard positions. These two will likely be tasked with stopping Tony Parker for significant stretches in this series. Eduardo Najera has been solid at both center and power forward, and, as mentioned, the Mavs always have a starting center coming off the bench.
Advantage: Mavericks
Coaching: Gregg Popovich vs. Rick Carlisle - Phil Jackson may be widely recognized as one of the top coaches of all time, but right behind him has to be Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich. Popovich is a master tactician and has the ability to get the most out of his players, even when the odds appear to be against him. He knows how to get inside the head of his opponent, and there can be no doubt that his decision to sit Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili against the Mavericks on Wednesday was part of some sort of plan he has concocted to throw the Mavericks off in their upcoming playoff series. Pop has four titles to his credit and is the single biggest reason you can't count San Antonio out of this series despite the Mavericks' many apparent advantages.
Rick Carlisle may lack the fire and overt passion of his predecessor, but he has proven to be a formidable coach in his own right. He doesn't have a championship to his credit, but he has taken impressive teams from Detroit and Indiana deep into postseason play and knows what it takes to win series. Like Popovich, he's not afraid to throw a curve ball and often shifts his lineup on the fly, forcing everyone to stay ready. Unlike Popovich, Carlisle lacks the experience of winning four championships. That gives the Spurs the edge on the bench.
Advantage: Spurs
Prediction: Mavericks in 6
So according to this idiot the best bench of the NBA isnt as good as the MAVS.Dirk is better than tim and the return of Manu ginobili and the addition of Blair, and RJ makes us weaker?
wow.
I feel very confident now after seeing this.
Spurs in 6
it seems only fitting that the San Antonio Spurs and Dallas Mavericks will kick off the 2009 NBA Playoffs against each other. Why waste time, right? Sooner or later they were bound to meet. When Dallas advanced to the NBA Finals in 2006 they had to get past the Spurs to get to the Western Conference Finals. In 2003, when the Spurs went on to win the championship, they had to beat the Mavericks in the Western Conference Finals. In 2001 the Spurs beat the Mavericks in the Western Conference Semfinals.
Some of the faces have changed, but it's safe to say Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Michael Finley, Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Terry, and Erick Dampier know each other all too well. Expect this to be a knock-down, drag-out series with more than a few scrimishes, officiating controversies, and last-second plays that determine games.
San Antonio is without star shooting guard Manu Ginobili, but that shouldn't feel too foreign for the Spurs. They played three of their four regular-season games against Dallas without him, with Dallas going 2-1 in those games. The Mavs are a little banged up, as well, with Josh Howard trying to play on an ankle that will require offseason surgery. Here's a look at how the teams match up by position:
Point Guard: Tony Parker vs. Jason Kidd - Every time people have written off the Spurs this season Tony Parker has simply turned his game up a notch and kept the team winning. No Duncan? No Ginobili? No problem. More often as not, the Spurs have continued to win despite key players being out of the lineup because Parker has carried them. Parker averaged 31.25 points and 7.25 assists and one steal per game against Dallas this year, and the Mavs' ability to contain him will absolutely be the key to this series. Jason Kidd will play the point on the offensive end, but expect to see the smaller, quicker JJ Barea defending Parker for long stretches of games. Kidd simply isn't quick enough. That doesn't mean Kidd won't be a factor. He absolutely will. But it will be in other ways. Rick Carlisle recently said Kidd's the only player in the league who can dominate a game and only score three points. He's absolutely right. Kidd's playmaking will be the key for Dallas if they're to win the series. Kidd, who averaged 13 points, 8.8 assists, 7.25 rebounds and 1.5 steals per game against the Spurs this season, will use his size against Parker when they are matched up against each other. Kidd is still very good, but Parker should be an MVP candidate, and was the Finals MVP two seasons ago. He gets the edge here.
Advantage: San Antonio
Shooting Guard: Roger Mason vs. Antoine Wright - Antoine Wright doesn't put up big numbers, but he's been the guy Dallas has leaned on all season on the defensive end of the court. He'll certainly give Roger Mason fits, as Wright's a very good position defender. Wright became the team's full-time starter in January, and through April, when the lineups got screwy again, he was averaging nine points per contest. Still, it's his defense that will keep him on the court for Rick Carlisle. Roger Mason is having his best NBA season by far, averaging 11.8 points per game and shooting over 42% from the field and from the arch. He's been a big part of why the Spurs continued to win through long stretches of games without Manu Ginobili. This match-up isn't exactly cut-and-dried, as Jason Kidd may start on Mason if Barea starts against Parker. Jason Terry will also play a significant number of minutes at the two. Because the Mavs will switch things up so much, it's hard to fairly give an advantage based on the two alone.
Advantage: PUSH
Small Forward: Michael Finley vs. Josh Howard – Say what you want about Michael Finley, but he's proven he still had a lot of good basketball left in him when he was cut by the Mavs. Gregg Popovich calls Finley his best perimeter player, and while Fin doesn't fly through the air with the greatest of ease any more, he can still bury the three ball with the best of them. He was over 41% for the season, and he's one of those guys who cranks things up a notch in the postseason. Nonetheless, Howard would normally have a huge edge here. For stretches of 2008-09 Howard has looked more like the All-Star from two seasons ago than the lame duck from last year, but he does have a severely-sprained ankle that will limit his effectiveness in the postseason. He's shown a lot of heart playing through it late in the season, but he's one bad landing from being out of this series. Still, the Mavs go as Howard goes. He's the one who gets them started and he's the one they rally around. If he's able to play big minutes, he's the deciding factor.
Advantage: Dallas
Power Forward: Dirk Nowitzki vs. Matt Bonner - Technically, Tim Duncan is the power forward for the Spurs, but let's be honest. Bonner is your forward. You can absolutely count on the Mavs putting Erick Dampier on Duncan in the post, while Nowitzki will be happy to roam the perimeter against the Spurs' new Big Shot Bo(nner). Bonner is not the defender that Robert Horry was for so many years, so the Spurs are going to have to try a lot of tricks to contain Nowitzki. Expect to see Bruce Bowen on him, you'll see Finley on him, Drew Gooden will do his time, Duncan will spend some time on him, even Gregg Popovich might get out and guard Dirk a couple of times. At the end of the day, the Spurs have no answer for Nowitzki, who averaged 25.75 points and 9.75 rebounds per game against them this season. Bonner managed just 8.75 points and four rebounds against the Mavericks this year.
Advantage: Dallas
Center: Tim Duncan vs. Erick Dampier - As much as Nowitzki has an advantage over Bonner and the Spurs' cast of forwards, Tim Duncan has a similar advantage at the center position. Dampier has played a reduced role for the Mavs this season, playing his fewest minutes per game (23) since his rookie season. Part of it is because Damp's had some nagging knee pain, but a bigger part is that the NBA has moved on from the age of the dinosaur center. Damp is a walking fossil. You'll see a lot of Bradon Bass against Duncan and Ryan Hollins has been playing well of late, so you'll see him, too. James Singleton has had a great deal of success against big men, and Carlisle will no doubt give him a crack at Duncan.That said, Dampier is the Mavericks' best defense against the driving Tony Parker, so whether or not he's able to stop Duncan, he may get a few extra minutes as Carisle tries to deter Parker from running a lay-up drill. Duncan's had some knee issues, too, but this is the playoffs. He won't feel the pain until the Spurs have been eliminated . . .or won another championship.
Advantage: San Antonio
Bench: Terry/Bass/Barea/Hollins/Singleton vs. Gooden/Bowen/Thomas/Udoka - One thing we know coming in: Jason Terry will outscore all of San Antonio's bench every game. Count on that. Easily the league's top sixth man, Jet has taken his game to a new level this season. He's hit more game-winners than Nowitzki on the season and has been as clutch as any player in the league. If the ball's in his hands with the game on the line, the Mavs - including Nowitzki - are confident he'll make the right play. Brandon Bass' days of wallowing on the bench in New Orleans are over. He's been a huge factor for the Mavs, and this has been his best season. He has his mental lapses, but when he's focused he's a force in the paint. Hollins has shown signs of late, most recently having a strong showing against Yao Ming, and Singleton has become Carlisle's go-to guy at center in many situations. Finally, don't turn your back on JJ Barea. The Puerto Rican Blur can score in buches, and is money from downtown. He's had his share of 20-point games, and he's the one Dallas will look to when it comes to tripping up Parker.
San Antonio's bench isn't as much of a factor, but that's because their starters will be more involved in the games. While Dallas has some weaknesses in the starting lineup which require constant adjustments, the Spurs have a solid starting group that doesn't need a ton of supplementation. They'll certainly need someone to step up, and Drew Gooden is the most likely candidate, as they seek to contain Nowitzki, expect Popovich to force the Mavs to adjust to his own team's strengths.
Advantage: Dallas
Coaching: Gregg Popovich vs. Rick Carlisle - It took Carlisle a while to figure out what he had, and for the team to adjust to his coaching style, but by the end of the season the Mavericks were as good as any team in the league. They blew out a Suns team that had to have a win to keep their playoff hopes alive, then blew out a Jazz team that was trying to stay out of the eighth seed. They lost two games in April, and one of those was without Josh Howard. They finished the season on a very high note, beating the Houston Rockets to claim the sixth-seed in the West. Carlisle isn't nearly as dynamic as Avery Johnson, but he's getting his message across and his team is responding. That said, he's no Gregg Popovich. Pop is one of the best coaches in the history of the NBA, and even without Manu Ginobli you can bet he'll have his team ready to play. People outside of San Antonio and Dallas have already written off the Spurs, but as long as Pop is at the helm they'll be ready and willing to throw down with anyone.
Advantage: San Antonio
Health will definitely play a role in this series. Josh Howard's ankle will absolutely determine whether or not the Mavericks advance, while the absence of Ginobili and the condition of Duncan's knees will be a factor for San Antonio. At the end of the day, Carisle's abililty to exploit match-ups may be the thing that tips the balance of this series. Injuries have forced him to use a lot of different lineups this season, and that will likely pay off now. The Mavericks can go small and run circles around any team in the league. It's probably not a championship strategy, but it could be enough to get them past San Antonio.
Final Prediction: Mavericks in 7
AND WE LOST in 5
NOW:
The San Antonio Spurs and Dallas Mavericks are certainly no strangers to each other. Last season the Mavericks eliminated the Spurs in the first round of the playoffs 4-1, in 2006 the Mavericks eliminated San Antonio in the second round 4-3, in 2003 the Spurs beat the Mavs 4-2 in the Western Conference Finals and in 2001 the Spurs got the best of the Mavericks 4-1 in the second round. It seems the playoffs just wouldn't be the playoffs if Tim Duncan and Dirk Nowitzki didn't go head-to-head at some point.
The Spurs are obviously the more successful franchise, with four titles during the Tim Duncan era, and that's a fact the Mavericks are quick to point out as they prepare for this series with their cross-state rivals. The Mavericks may be the second seed and the Spurs may be the seventh, but the Mavs are taking nothing for granted. They know that Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili can be a handful, and Richard Jefferson's improved play of late will only add to the challenge.
Age and injuries have taken their toll on the Spurs this season, with Duncan looking a little slower and injuries forcing both Parker and George Hill out of the lineup recently. Ginobili has been on a tear, though, and thanks to his spectacular play the Spurs are playing some of their best basketball of the season heading into the playoffs . . .but what else is new?
The Mavericks have been aggressive, as always, in looking to improve the team, and the additions of Brendan Haywood, Caron Butler and DeShawn Stevenson have made them markedly better on the defensive end. They don't always remember to play defense, but when they do they can be devastatingly good. When they get stops they set loose their running game, and the Mavs' running game is as good as any in the NBA outside of maybe Phoenix. The Spurs, of course, specialize in slowing things down and forcing teams away from their strengths. Slow down the Mavericks, force them to run half-court sets, and you can beat them.
Point Guard: Jason Kidd vs. Tony Parker - Gregg Popovich recently joked that he thought Jason Kidd must have found some kind of fountain of youth last summer in preparing for this season, and all indications are that he's right. Kidd's 10.3 points, 9.1 assists and 5.6 rebounds per game has been pretty much par for the course, but his 46% shooting from three-point range is by far the best of his career. His man-on defense has fallen off, but he's still as good in the passing lanes and at running the offense as he's ever been.
Parker, of course, has had a tough season with injuries. Plantar fasciitis slowed him considerably early in the season and then he missed 16 games with a hand injury more recently. Normally this match-up would be all Parker, who has risen to near-MVP status over the last couple of seasons, but he's been a shadow of that player in 2009-10. He's still playing his way back into shape, and that's going to be an issue for the Spurs. A healthy Tony Parker eats Kidd alive, but at this point his injury status and Kidd's ridiculous basketball IQ make this match-up pretty even.
Advantage: Even
Shooting Guard: Manu Ginobili vs. Caron Butler - In the past the Spurs, like so many other teams, have owned the Mavericks at the two-guard spot. Jason Terry is a terrific player and the second-best scorer on the team, but he's too short to effectively stop bigger players like Ginobili. Now, with Butler in the mix, the Mavs have a real stopper on the defensive end. What's more, Butler is more than capable of putting 20 points on the board. Still, as good as Butler is, he's not playing as well as Ginobili.
When Tony Parker went down with a hand injury Ginobili seemed to decide he was going to carry the team. He averaged better than 20 points per game in March and April and took the Spurs from playoff hopefuls to the thick of the Western Conference playoff race. Ginobili is as clutch as they come, and can kill a team with a huge three or blow by everyone for an and-one at the rim. At least one game in this series will be determined by Ginobili's play in the waning seconds. Mark it down.
Advantage: Spurs
Small Forward: Shawn Marion vs. Richard Jefferson - Richard Jefferson was supposed to be championship revival piece for San Antonio. His youth and energy was supposed revitalize the Spurs and help them dominate the Western Conference once more. Instead, he struggled to find his role on a team with three other stars and he's posted his worst season since he was a rookie in New Jersey in 2001-02. That said, he's got better as the season's end drew near. With Parker out of the mix the Spurs put the ball in Jefferson's hands more and the results were quite good. Still, he's only giving the Spurs roughly 12 points per game going into postseason play.
Shawn Marion has not been the high-flying Marion we all got used to seeing in Phoenix, and he's had his share of injuries this season. He sat out a couple of games down the stretch with an oblique injury, but does seem to be healthy heading into the playoffs. Like Jefferson, Marion posted his worst season since his rookie year in 2009-10 and it's clear parts of his game are fading. He's no longer a threat from three-point range and his rebounding has fallen off, but he's still a lethal weapon in the open court and his defense is a factor every single night.
Advantage: Even
Power Forward: Dirk Nowitzki vs. Tim Duncan - This is it. The marquee match-up pits two former MVP's and frequent foes against each other, but these two players couldn't be much different. Duncan is the old-school bruising power forward, preferring to roam the paint and control the glass, while Nowitzki does most of his damage with his mid-range game and can also drill a huge three when needed. While age and injuries have slowed Duncan noticeably, Nowitzki is still in top form, and should be considered among the candidates for MVP this season.
Nowitzki averaged 25.0 points per game this season, his best per-game average since he led the Mavericks to the NBA Finals and won league MVP in 2006. He shot 48% from the field, 42% from three and 91% from the foul line. In other words, it was a typical year for Nowitzki, who hasn't lost a single step. As April arrived Nowitzki began his warm-up for the playoffs, averaging 28.4 points and 8.3 rebounds while shooting 52% from the field, 73% from three, and hitting every single one of his 55 free throw attempts. Dirk Nowitzki is ready for the playoffs and determined to win a championship. Fear him.
Duncan's pre-playoff run has been significantly less impressive than Nowitzki's. In 17 games in March, Duncan managed just 14.2 points per game, and while he upped that to 17.1 in April, Duncan still looks considerably slower than the Tim Duncan we've become accustomed to seeing dominate every team in site come playoff time. If the Spurs have another championship run in them, it's going to be up to Parker, Ginobili and Jefferson to shoulder the lion's share of the load. Duncan doesn't seem to be up to it any more, and will need help in the effort to stop Nowitzki.
Advantage: Mavericks
Center: Antonio McDyess vs. Erick Dampier/Brendan Haywood - The Mavericks actually have two starting centers, and head coach Rick Carlisle often switches it up. Dampier seems to be the more likely starter as the playoffs begin, as he's started more recently, but the Spurs could see either of them at any given time.
Erick Dampier is the best screener the Mavs have, and when he's on the floor you can expect Dallas to run a lot of screen-rolls or pick-and-pops. Damp is not as effective on the offensive end, and doesn't do very well when he's away from the basket on the defensive end. Given McDyess' propensity for the mid-range jumper, we might see Nowitzki on McDyess and Damp covering Duncan in the post. When Haywood checks in the Mavs have a more dynamic offensive force, and Haywood has been fantastic on the defensive end and on the glass for Dallas, as well.
Like Duncan, McDyess is showing his age, and he's the center of last resort for San Antonio. They sometimes run Matt Bonner at center, and sometimes rookie DeJuan Blair gets the call, as well, but no matter who they run at the five Dallas has an advantage. McDyess is a far cry from the offensive machine he was in his prime. He's basically a solid back-up center at this stage of his career, but he starts nonetheless. It might actually be interesting to see Blair go against the Mavs' front line, but we'll see how Popovich plays it.
Advantage: Mavericks
Bench: Jason Terry gives the Mavericks a threat that the entire collective of the Spurs' reserves doesn't bring to the table. Manu Ginobili used to be the same kind of force for the Spurs, but his move to the starting lineup also meant the second unit lost its luster. George Hill is San Antonio's most important option off the bench, but his injured ankle could hamper his play considerably. DeJuan Blair is arguably the steal of the 2009 NBA Draft and can also put up huge numbers - as Dallas learned in their final game of the regular season. Matt Bonner's three-point shot is something you have to be concerned about and Roger Mason has to be respected, but with Ginobili starting the Spurs don't have an impact player coming in with the second unit.
When the Mavericks go to the bench they have a lot of different weapons to choose from, and all of them have had their moments this season. Jason Terry needs no introduction, and is essentially Rick Carlisle's sixth starter. He's going to log starter's minutes and he will go for 20 more often than not. JJ Barea will also see significant minutes off the bench, and Roddy Beaubois will spend time at both guard positions. These two will likely be tasked with stopping Tony Parker for significant stretches in this series. Eduardo Najera has been solid at both center and power forward, and, as mentioned, the Mavs always have a starting center coming off the bench.
Advantage: Mavericks
Coaching: Gregg Popovich vs. Rick Carlisle - Phil Jackson may be widely recognized as one of the top coaches of all time, but right behind him has to be Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich. Popovich is a master tactician and has the ability to get the most out of his players, even when the odds appear to be against him. He knows how to get inside the head of his opponent, and there can be no doubt that his decision to sit Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili against the Mavericks on Wednesday was part of some sort of plan he has concocted to throw the Mavericks off in their upcoming playoff series. Pop has four titles to his credit and is the single biggest reason you can't count San Antonio out of this series despite the Mavericks' many apparent advantages.
Rick Carlisle may lack the fire and overt passion of his predecessor, but he has proven to be a formidable coach in his own right. He doesn't have a championship to his credit, but he has taken impressive teams from Detroit and Indiana deep into postseason play and knows what it takes to win series. Like Popovich, he's not afraid to throw a curve ball and often shifts his lineup on the fly, forcing everyone to stay ready. Unlike Popovich, Carlisle lacks the experience of winning four championships. That gives the Spurs the edge on the bench.
Advantage: Spurs
Prediction: Mavericks in 6
So according to this idiot the best bench of the NBA isnt as good as the MAVS.Dirk is better than tim and the return of Manu ginobili and the addition of Blair, and RJ makes us weaker?
wow.
I feel very confident now after seeing this.
Spurs in 6