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biba
04-18-2010, 01:52 PM
Shopping for "The Series"

By Henry Abbott April 18
http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/15061/shopping-for-the-series

I've long wondered what NBA owners and executives talked about in the hallways at board of governors' meetings.

This year, I can tell you with certitude, topic numero uno was: What's this year's "series to watch?"

There was some chatter in support of Milwaukee vs. Atlanta, but a Bogutless deer is hard to fear. Many are eager to see Kevin Durant and the Thunder take on Kobe Bryant's Lakers -- but it's hard to find people who think the Thunder will win. I've been trying to muster support for the idea that Suns vs. Blazers will be a classic, but have had trouble finding non-Blazer fans who buy it.

There are eight first-round series every year. Almost without fail, one emerges as truly special. Recently, that series has typically featured Kevin Garnett's yappy, chippy and salty Boston Celtics.

The team in green has an undeniable knack for ratcheting up the intensity. A year ago the Bulls and Celtics conspired to create one of the most exciting series of all time. Seven thrilling games and seven thrilling overtimes, made it one for the ages, peppered with memories like Joakim Noah's steal and "and one" breakaway dunk in triple overtime.

The Celtics were part of a classic first-round series in 2008, too. They were on their way to a title, but in the first-round, the upstart Atlanta Hawks put a serious scare into them. (Who can forget Al Horford screaming at Paul Pierce, and Pierce's controversial response?)

Three years ago, so long as you're not from Dallas, there was no arguing that the must-see series was the eighth-seeded Warriors gleeful elimination of the top-seeded Mavericks.

This year, Game 1 shows the Celtics are still serving up heat and controversy, complete with a noteworthy shoving and screaming match in crunch time. What'll be necessary to make their series with the Heat a classic is evidence that the Heat can compete against Boston's defense. In Game 1, Dwyane Wade and his unheralded teammates (how many can you name?) needed a technical free throw just to get to double digit points scored in the final quarter.

Meanwhile, as I have heard plenty of talk about the promise of the Bucks or Thunder making things interesting, I feel like the two really promising series are flying below the radar.

The Utah Jazz and San Antonio Spurs each enter the playoffs, according to John Hollinger's playoff odds, roughly twice as likely as the Lakers to win the West. They're heavyweights. They're conventional picks to go far. By and large, they have manhandled the opposition when healthy. Having both endured some serious injuries however, those teams are also both starting the playoffs on the road, against higher seeds Denver and Dallas.

How do you pick a favorite in series like that? As the guy who recently compiled the picks of some of the world's smartest basketball analysts, I can tell you it's not easy. The seven stat geeks in TrueHoop's 2010 Stat Geek Smackdown were unanimous in who they expected would win six of eight series. They were divided on the Spurs vs. Mavericks, however, as well as Jazz vs. Nuggets, and both series are hot candidates to to be "the one."

Meanwhile, the Nuggets have kicked off their series against the Jazz with a neat trick: In one game, they demonstrated both an intense nail-biter -- see-sawing lead changes through three quarters -- and a radioactive hot streak and the resulting blowout in the fourth. Carmelo Anthony, Chris "Birdman" Andersen and J.R. Smith are famously colorful, tattooed and at times cranky (ESPN commentator Doris Burke chose her words carefully in calling them "a unique set of personalities"). They're under special pressure to hang around the playoffs long enough for their coach, George Karl, to make it back from intensive radiation to treat throat and neck cancer. As this series drags on, that storyline will only intensify. The Nuggets also boast three special playoff weapons: Athletic big Nene (for whom the regular season is just an annoyingly long preamble -- he's built for the playoffs), turbo-charged former NCAA champion Ty Lawson and designated provocateur and All-Star hound Arron Afflalo.

Meanwhile the Mavericks lost to the Heat in the 2006 NBA Finals. Since then, the Mavericks have had some of the League's highest salaries every year, and a rotating cast of big-name players, all in an attempt to return to the Finals. Yet in the three intervening years, the Mavericks have won a single playoff series. It's getting to be time for this team to prove itself again.

Of note to the Spurs, however, is that the Mavericks sole recent series win was against them, just last year. The Spurs are a small-market NBA team that has traditionally been very cost-conscious. Unwilling to waste Tim Duncan's last few years of stardom the Spurs changed tactics and have gone "all-in," handing big money to the likes of Richard Jefferson and Manu Ginobili. Will it work?

It'll take four hard-fought wins over a hungry Mavericks team to find out, and that makes Mavericks - Spurs a leading candidate to be "the one" in 2010.