biba
04-18-2010, 02:04 PM
http://waynewinston.com/wordpress/?p=591
April 15, 2010
The Underachieving,Underrated Spurs
Since the all star break the Spurs have faced down an injury to star point guard Tony Parker and yet they played 6.4 points better than average. This is third best performance in NBA since break (behind Orlando and Phoenix). Yet the Spurs are only 20-1 to win the NBA championship while the Cavs and Lakers get under 2-1 odds. So I guess it is fair to say the Spurs are underrated.
Given how well the Spurs have played, it is amazing to see how much better they could be if they carefully analyzed their lineup choices. Here are some amazing stats concerning the Spurs performnce this year. All stats are per 48 minutes and are adjusted for strength of opponents faced.
•The Spurs are poor when Mason is in and Duncan out. They play 7 points worse than average per 48 minutes).
•Blair and Duncan do not play very well together. Spurs are only 2 points better than average with both in.
•When Duncan is out, the Spurs are great with Bonner and Blair in (12 points better than average). Rest of time Duncan is out Spurs are 9 points worse than average.
•Bogans has an Adjusted +/- rating of -7. This means we estimate he would cost the Spurs 7 points per 48 minutes if he played instead of an average NBA player. Newcomer Garrett Temple has been great, with an Adjusted +/- rating of +3. Temple plays poorly with Bogans (62 min -16 level), but when Temple is in with Manu and Duncan the Spurs are on fire (+27 level, 65 minutes).
•When the Spurs go small with Manu, Hill ,Parker, and Duncan they only play at average level with McDyess out. But with McDyess in with these 4 they play at +47 level (only 25 minutes).
•Duncan, Manu, Parker and Mcdyess has been great: plays 28 points better than average in 175 minutes. Without McDyess, the other three only play 5 points better than average.
•Duncan, Manu, Bonner and Hill with either Jefferson or Mason is a great way to rest Parker. These lineups play 22 points better than average (122 min).
•Jefferson, Manu and Duncan, with other two guys just about anyone except for Blair is great: 748 minutes, 20 points better than average.
•When Manu is out the Spurs are fine with Duncan and Parker in (other 3 chosen from player not including Bonner, Mason and Blair). The Spurs play 17 points better than average (in 320 minutes) in this situation
•In the 4th quarter Duncan, Manu, Bonner, Jefferson, and Blair have al been solid. Hill (-7 Adjusted +/- in 4th quarter) has not played well in 4th quarter.
•When Duncan is in and Mcdyess is out best thing is to play Duncan Bonner Jefferson Manu and Parker or Hill. Plays 20 points better than average. McDyess is an unsung hero.
Spurs best lineups [go to the article]
Head to Head Spurs vs. Mavs
Not much interesting data here. For season Spurs played 1 points worse than average against Mavs (adjusting for strength of opponents). Most of their poor performance was with Bogans in (93 minutes Spurs played 10 points worse than average). When Bogans was out Spurs played 6 points better than average against Mavs.
April 15, 2010
The Underachieving,Underrated Spurs
Since the all star break the Spurs have faced down an injury to star point guard Tony Parker and yet they played 6.4 points better than average. This is third best performance in NBA since break (behind Orlando and Phoenix). Yet the Spurs are only 20-1 to win the NBA championship while the Cavs and Lakers get under 2-1 odds. So I guess it is fair to say the Spurs are underrated.
Given how well the Spurs have played, it is amazing to see how much better they could be if they carefully analyzed their lineup choices. Here are some amazing stats concerning the Spurs performnce this year. All stats are per 48 minutes and are adjusted for strength of opponents faced.
•The Spurs are poor when Mason is in and Duncan out. They play 7 points worse than average per 48 minutes).
•Blair and Duncan do not play very well together. Spurs are only 2 points better than average with both in.
•When Duncan is out, the Spurs are great with Bonner and Blair in (12 points better than average). Rest of time Duncan is out Spurs are 9 points worse than average.
•Bogans has an Adjusted +/- rating of -7. This means we estimate he would cost the Spurs 7 points per 48 minutes if he played instead of an average NBA player. Newcomer Garrett Temple has been great, with an Adjusted +/- rating of +3. Temple plays poorly with Bogans (62 min -16 level), but when Temple is in with Manu and Duncan the Spurs are on fire (+27 level, 65 minutes).
•When the Spurs go small with Manu, Hill ,Parker, and Duncan they only play at average level with McDyess out. But with McDyess in with these 4 they play at +47 level (only 25 minutes).
•Duncan, Manu, Parker and Mcdyess has been great: plays 28 points better than average in 175 minutes. Without McDyess, the other three only play 5 points better than average.
•Duncan, Manu, Bonner and Hill with either Jefferson or Mason is a great way to rest Parker. These lineups play 22 points better than average (122 min).
•Jefferson, Manu and Duncan, with other two guys just about anyone except for Blair is great: 748 minutes, 20 points better than average.
•When Manu is out the Spurs are fine with Duncan and Parker in (other 3 chosen from player not including Bonner, Mason and Blair). The Spurs play 17 points better than average (in 320 minutes) in this situation
•In the 4th quarter Duncan, Manu, Bonner, Jefferson, and Blair have al been solid. Hill (-7 Adjusted +/- in 4th quarter) has not played well in 4th quarter.
•When Duncan is in and Mcdyess is out best thing is to play Duncan Bonner Jefferson Manu and Parker or Hill. Plays 20 points better than average. McDyess is an unsung hero.
Spurs best lineups [go to the article]
Head to Head Spurs vs. Mavs
Not much interesting data here. For season Spurs played 1 points worse than average against Mavs (adjusting for strength of opponents). Most of their poor performance was with Bogans in (93 minutes Spurs played 10 points worse than average). When Bogans was out Spurs played 6 points better than average against Mavs.